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Case study of major accident to demonstrate the possibility of prediction of conditions for accidents
#48
Presenter: Tiantian Zhu
Authors: Tiantian Zhua, Stein Haugena, Yiliu Liub, Kim Hyungjub
a Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway b Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Research path • Prediction of the conditions for accidents
Specify research interest
• Turner's man-made disaster theory for accident development • Risk analysis (QRA and real-time risk monitoring) • Previous studies about MV Sewol accident
Literature study
• Conditions of accident is possible to be anticipated if a capable accident model and data are available
Propose hypothesis
• Define system boundary • Develop accident model • Investigate the availability of information with time and information holders • Intergrate the collected information and their time of being available to accident
model to verify whether the accident can be predicted
Case study for verifying hypothesis
Case: --MV Sewol capsizing disaster • 16 April 2014 • Passenger ferry in South Korea • 304 out of 476 persons died
Regulations
Coast GuardChonghaejin Marine Company
MV SEWOL ferryCrew members
Passengers
FSA (Federation of Shipping Associations)
Korean Government
KR (Korean Register of Shipping)
System components in MV Sewol capsizing
Capsizing accident model
Rate of
turn
National regulatio
n for marine
operation
Market and
economic
conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulatio
n for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Work process of ship design
company
Modified ship
Route plannin
g
Inherent intact stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitme
nt
Ship manageme
nt
Competence of the captain
Communication and
cooperation
Crew managem
ent
Maintenance plan
Cargo
load
Operation practice(B
efore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast
water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizi
ng
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the
third mate
Safety trainin
g
Ship desig
n
Information collection
Work process of
ship approval
No. Key information
Information holder
Time of being available
Effects
1 KR only used 1 day for the approval of MV Sewol, stability calculation was not verified
KR (Korean Register of Shipping)
Early 2013 Reduced the chance of catching the stability issue of the ferry
2 KR failed to recognize the lightweight is underestimated and approved the vessel.
Fail to catch the stability issue of the ferry
National regulation for marine operation
Market and economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design Industry
standard and practice
Information collecting and integrating
Conceptual capsizing
prob.
2007
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design Industry
standard and practice
From: shipping sector “The profit margin is shrinking!!!”
Conceptual capsizing
prob.
National regulation for marine operation
Market and economic conditions
2007
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design Industry
standard and practice
Conceptual capsizing
prob.
National regulation for marine operation
Market and economic conditions
From: Regulator “The retirement of ferry extends from 20 years to 30 years.”
2008
National regulation for marine operation
Market and economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design Industry
standard and practice
2008
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Work process of ship design
company
Ship modifica
tion
Route planning
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: CEO “More profit.”
Ship design
Ferry remodeling phase
Cargo plan and control
Company operation strategy
Safety awareness
of the captain
2012 Oct.
Safety awareness
of the captain
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Work process of ship design
company Route planning
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: Ferry company “The ferry is 18 years old”
Ship design
From: Ferry company “expand it to increase capacity”
Ferry remodeling phase
Cargo plan and control
Ship modification
Ship modifica
tion
2012 Oct.
From: Ferry company, Designer “Added two floors”
From: Ferry company “Raised revenue to get authorization for expansion”
Safety awareness
of the captain
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Work process of ship design
company Route planning
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: Design company “Did not follow rules to calculate ferry intact stability”
Ship design
From: “Underestimated the lightweight with 100 tons”
From: “Inclining test was conducted based on the documents with wrong data”
Ferry remodeling phase
Cargo plan and control
Work process of ship design
company
Ship modifica
tion
2013 Jan.
Safety awareness
of the captain
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Route planning
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training From: KR
“Used 1 day for approving MV Sewol, did not verify stability calculation”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Ferry remodeling phase
From: “Did not recognize the lightweight is underestimated.”
Cargo plan and control
Work process of
ship approval
From: “Inclining test was conducted based on the documents with wrong data”
Ship modifica
tion
2013 Jan.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Ship modifica
tion
Route planning
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: FSA, the captain, ferry operator “Telescope for overload checking”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation preparation phase
Cargo plan and control
Marine transportation supervision
From: FSA, the captain, ferry company “captain reports voyage cargo load, passenger number”
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Mar.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Route plan
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t Communicatio
n and cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: Ferry company “Ordered to load as much as possible”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Cargo plan and control
Ship managemen
t
Ship modifica
tion
Operation preparation phase
From: Ferry company “Over reported allowed cargo to Incheon Coast Guard”
Ship managemen
t
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Apr.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Route plan
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: Ferry company “The planned course includes a passage through the Maenggol Strait”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
From: Ferry company “Maenggol Strait is an accident-prone route with treacherous currents(tide)”
Cargo plan and control
Route plan
Ship modifica
tion
Operation preparation phase
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Apr.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Staff recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: Ferry company, crew “Employ mainly temporary staff”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation preparation phase
Cargo plan and control Staff
recruitment Ship
modification
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Apr.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Route plan
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
From: the former captain, ferry company “the ship is very unstable”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation phase
From: the former captain, navigation officers “> 5° turning is not allowed!”
Cargo plan and control
Inherent intact
stability
Ship modifica
tion
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Jun.
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Route plan
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Safety awareness
of the captain
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Safety training
From: Crew “No training is provided”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation phase
From: CEO, HR “The company only spent around $500 on crew's safety education annually.”
Ship modifica
tion
2013 Jul.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Safety awareness
of the captain
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Safety awareness
of the captain
From: HR, the captain “Temporary contract, high job insecurity”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation phase
Cargo plan and control
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
From: the captain “Inhonest self-report in cargo load, safety appliances, etc.”
2013 Oct.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation phase
Cargo plan and control
Ship modifica
tion
Safety awareness
of the captain
Route plan
2013 Oct.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Competence of the third
mate
From: Crew, the captain “Banned from navigating a ship when entering and departing a port”
Work process of ship design
company
Cargo plan and control
Ship design
Operation phase
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2013 Dec.
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Cargo plan and control
Operation practice(Be
fore departure)
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Cargo plan and control
From: Crew, loading company, CEO “Frequent overload”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Operation phase
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Mar.
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Ship technical condition
From: Maintenance Log “No registered malfunction ”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Voyage preparation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 15th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Departure inspection
From: the captain, loading company “Did not detect overloading ”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Voyage preparation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 15th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Cargo load
From: Loading company, crew members “1155 tons of cargo overloaded”
2014 Apr. 15th
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Voyage preparation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Ship design
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Cargo secure
From: Crew members, loading company “No proper system to store containers”
Work process of ship design
company
Voyage preparation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
From: Crew member, loading company “Unsecured cargo storage”
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 15th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Ballast water
From: the captain, crew members “Only carry 761 tons, requires 1703 tons”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Voyage preparation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 15th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Sea conditions(wi
nd, waves, current)
From: Tide table, the captain “Fast tide”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Ship navigation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 15th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Navigation
From: the captain, shift time table “Third officer is in charge when across Maenggol Strait”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Ship navigation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 16th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Speed
From: Speedometer “”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Ship navigation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 16th
Cargo plan and control
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Rate of turn
From: Third mate “Turned over than 5 degree”
Work process of ship design
company
Ship design
Ship navigation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 16th
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Work process of ship design
company
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Cargo plan and control
Ship design
Ship navigation
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 16th
Rate of turn
National regulation for marine operation
Market and
economic conditions
Regulation for ship approval
National regulation for design
Industry standard
and practice
Company operation strategy
Work process of
ship approval
Ship design
Inherent intact
stability
Marine transportat
ion supervisio
n
Crew recruitmen
t
Ship managemen
t
Communication and
cooperation
Crew manageme
nt
Maintenance plan
Operation practice
Ship technical condition
Unsecured
cargo
Cargo load
Ballast water
Sea conditions(
wind, waves, current)
Navigation
Speed Capsizin
g
Departure inspectio
n
Competence of the third
mate
Safety training
Work process of ship design
company
Cargo plan and control
Listing
Ship modifica
tion
Route plan
Safety awareness
of the captain
2014 Apr. 16th
Time line
Conceptualcapsizing probability
2012-early 2013:Remodeling period
2013-2014:Operation phase
1 day ahead:Voyage preparation
Navigating
Capsizing
Conclusions
1. The capsizing is not a surprise
2. A well-developed capsizing accident model and information availability is very useful for accident prediction
3. It provides hints in where and when to collect information for accident prediction
4. It indicates that different strategies can be applied at different system components at varied time for accident prevention.
Thank you!!!
