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TOP IC;ECB~/NODIS

SENSITIVE

b.

- lO -

Is r a e l ' s conventional superiority will besufficient to rn e et any Arab at.ta ck in th e fo r c­seeable future.

3. The ar gurnents ~gain s t stating thi s as our obj e ctiv e - ­at least t o the Is r a eli a-v a r e tha t:

a . It wou l d e s ta b lish a n indefensible record for us.W e w oul d a ccept c om p li city in Is rael ' s pos s es sionof nuclear weapons by saying in effect: We knoww h a t Is r ael h as, but we w i ll close our eyes to it -­and deliver the Phantorns--provided the I sraelis

. promis e not to announce what they have. Tbatwould not rnak e an easy record to defend befor ethe world against a background of our p r ofe s s eddesire to limit nuclear proliferation.

b. It puts the Is raelis in a position- -with ouracquie scence-·· to let th e w o r l d know indirectlybut u nmistakably what it has w i th ou t violatingany pledge to us.

4. Conclusions :

a. Saying that w e want to keep Israel's possessionof nuclear weapons fr orn becoming an establishedinternational fact may corne v e r y close to describingwhat we really w a n t in this case. Our interest is inpreventing Israeli spas s es sion of nuclear w c a.po n s ,But since we cannot- - and m ay not w a n t to try to-­control the state of Israeli s nuclear prognnTI andsince I srael may already have nuclear weapons,the one objective we might achieve is to persuadethem to keep what they have secret. This wouldrne et our ob j e ctive because the i n ternational i rnpIi-.cations of a n israeli program are no t triggereduntil it become s public knowledge •

...g;QP 'ali CR '!;; 'F-/ NODIS <-

SENSITIVE

[il)er.) 0 2..~O ;/« 4- f!Of rfJ

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