Cartmel Village Hall, Monday 4 th August 2008 Dr Mike Hall, Vice-chairman, FELLS

Cartmel Village Hall, Monday 4th August 2008

Dr Mike Hall, Vice-chairman, FELLS

THE STRIBERS WIND FARM PROPOSAL

OUTLINE

1.Why is Cumbria under siege?

2. Developments on the Furness & Cartmel Peninsulas

3. STRIBERS - A look at the claims made by the developer

• Electricity generation

• Houses supplied

• CO2 saved (climate change)

• benefits

4. Planning – a question of balance

5. Concluding remarks

NW

SESW

NE

Windfarms in Cumbria[July 2008]

• Operational = 15 (~100 onshore turbines)

• In construction = 3

• Planning = 34 (22 active)

• Rejected = 8 (+3)

------

= 63

How has this situation arisen?

• Probably the most beautiful county in England

• Tourist driven - £1.14 billion in income in 2007

• Employing 36,017 people (20,940 FTE)

• Seeking World Heritage Site status

Where will the gas come from?

Russia, Ukraine, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela

Targets in the NW Sub-regions for 2010

NW Sub Region Renewables target1 (MW IC)

Cumbria 237.3

Lancashire 199.4

Greater Manchester 153.2

Cheshire 110.4

Merseyside 46.3

1 = NW Regional Spatial Strategy, policy EM17

2 = NWRA Energy & GHG Emissions Study (AEA Group), page viii (August 2007)

CUMBRIA’S LANDSCAPE

DESIGNATIONS

NP – 35.0%

AONB – 9.7%

Heritage Coast – 2.7%

Under review – 7.1%

-------------------------------------------

Undesignated – 45.5%

Cumbria’s designated areas

Cumbria’s targets are not reasonable

Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document

- 2007

LOW – all scales generally inappropriate

LOW/MODERATE – small group (3-5 turbines)

MODERATE – up to a small group (5), or exceptionally up to a large group (9)

MODERATE (9) to HIGH – up to a medium w/f (16-25)

LANDSCAPE CAPACITY

ASSESSMENT - 2006

OUTLINE

1. Why is Cumbria under siege?

2.Developments on the Furness & Cartmel Peninsulas



• Houses supplied


• benefits



KIRKBY MOOR (9)

HARLOCK HILL (5)

FAR OLD PARK (off screen 8)

Having one wind farm does not mean you will not get more

STANDISH COTE on this hill (10)

EXISTING, AND PLANNED WIND FARMS ON & NEAR THE FURNESS PENINSULA

OUTLINE



3.STRIBERS - A look at the claims made by the developer


• Houses supplied


• benefits



• Energia in Natura (Italian)

• Former proposal 3 turbines on NFFO site

• This proposal 6 turbines on larger site abutting the National Park

• 6 x 125 metres (410ft)

Stribers wind farm

THE STRIBERS ELLERSIDE PROPOSED

LAYOUT

Claims for electricity generation

[32,000 megawatts/year – acceptable]

From the Energia’s web site

• ‘The technology (wind power) ….. is ensuring reliability, efficiency, and the benefits of large scale…’

Annual 1971-2000

2.3 to 8.0

8.0 to 11.5

11.5 to 16.1

16.1 to 20.7

20.7 to 27.6

27.6 to 34.5

34.5 to 36.0

Mph equivalent

Guernsey = 14.1 mph

Jersey = 13.0 mph

‘The climate of the UK and recent trends’.

Published by the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the Meteorological Office. December 2007

UK WIND SPEEDS

Frequency of wind speeds in the UK (Met Office data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

Windspeed (miles/hour)

Day

s/ye

ar f

or

giv

en w

ind

sp

eed

s73% below 18mph

WHEN DOES A WIND TURBINE PRODUCE ELECTRICITY?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

(%

) 27% above 18mph

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38


Da

ys

/yr

(sp

ee

d)

& p

ow

er

(%) 73% 27%

Load factors at 10 NW wind farmsWIND LOAD FACTOR IN YEAR MEAN

FARM 2003 2004 2005 3 YEARS

Caton Moor 16.9 17.9 18.4 17.7

Far Old Park 25.0 25.8 25.7 25.5

Great Orton 20.3 22.3 21.4 21.3

Gt Orton Airfield 20.3 23.5 23.4 22.4

Harlock Hill 22.4 24.4 24.3 23.7

Kirkby Moor 26.8 28.7 28.2 27.9

Lambrigg 18.4 18.8 20.4 19.2

Lowca 30.5 32.4 36.3 33.1

Oldside 23.6 28.3 26.4 26.1

Siddick 21.8 26.0 23.6 27.1

AVERAGE = 24.4% Data from OFGEM

in fact

• Depending on the site, wind farms produce no worthwhile amounts of electricity for

55 to 110 day a year

• For 75% of the time their output is less than half their full power

The reality of Denmark’s wind carpet

Wind power output exceeded 2,000MW 9 times in 2003 but fell

below 100MW 36 times

The output is random and unpredictable

Energia Press Release August 2nd 2008

1. ‘Stribers wind farm will, when built, generate sufficient electricity for 8,500 homes and save many thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide.

2. Stribers fulfils many Local, Regional, National and European objectives in meeting the challenges of global warming and the effects of climate change’

3. Community support …. welcomes the opportunities provided for local regeneration created by the development of Stribers….’

Bob Ayres (Energia in Natura)

So how can they claim to supply 8,500 home?

In fact;

• They will provide power for ZERO homes for up to 110 days a year

• and precious little for another 110 days

• They use the constant power supply from the National Grid provided by;

• spinning reserve or back up for 75% of the time mostly from coal or gas-fired power stations.

How many 2.5 MW wind turbines would be needed to generate the same amount of electricity as Heysham

nuclear power station?

Power Station Capacity

(MW)

No. of 2.5 MW wind turbines

No. of wind turbines at 30% load

factor

Heysham 1/2 nuclear

2,400 1,200 3,200

ANSWER: 3,200 spread over an area of 200,000 acres of land

OR

533 STRIBERS WIND FARMS


1. ‘Stribers wind farm will, when built, generate sufficient electricity for 8,500 homes and save many thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide (18,000 tonnes).

2. Stribers fulfils many Local, Regional, National and European objectives in meeting the challenges of global warming and the effects of climate change



Stribers, carbon dioxide savings

and climate change

VANISHING CO2 SAVINGS

0.98

0.86

0.430.37

0.27

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

A B C D E

ton

nes

/MW

hDirty coal

1995BWEA

to 2007

Wicks TODAY

OFGEM,DEFRA,

CARBON TRUST &

GOVT

2004-7

DEFRA 2010

Malcolm Wicks is the current Energy Minister

Energia’s claims

• A saving of 18,000 tonnes of CO2 per year using a factor of 0.56t/MWh

CORRECT FIGURE TODAY IS

11,814 tonnes falling by 2010 to

8,600 tonnes

• Eon have applied to build Kingsnorth coal-fired power station in England. They say it will emit 700,000 tonnes of CO2 a month (=23,300 tonnes per day)

……..this will cancel out the annual savings of Stribers in just 1 day

The back-up paradox

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

C C

W = 33GW

WIND BLOWING HARD

BY 2015TODAY BY 2020

W = 10GW

C

Spare capacity

C = CONVENTIONAL (NUCLEAR, GAS, COAL) GENERATION;

W = WIND GENERATION

W = 2GW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

C C

WINDLESS DAY


C

Spare capacity


W = WIND GENERATION

Paul Golby, CEO of Eon (UK) said;

• ‘It would take 50 gigawatts of renewable energy to meet the EU target [of 15%]. But it would take 90% of this amount as back-up from coal and gas plants to ensure supply when intermittent renewables were not available. That would push Britain’s installed power base from the existing 76 gigawatts to 120 gigawatts’.

The Guardian, June 4th 2008

46 gigawatts would require;

• Over 40 new nuclear power stations or

• 20 coal-fired power stations, or

• Around 80 gas-fired power stations

WOW!And that’s just to back-up the wind

farms

Confirmed by

• Christopher Barton (Director of UK Renewable Energy Strategy Project at [BERR]). House of Lords Inquiry on 17 March 2008. Q.12 page 9

• European Union for the Transmission of Electricity Report, 2007

• Graham Sinden in Wind Power & the UK Wind Resource, Environmental Change Institute Oxford University, 2005

So more wind means more ordinary power stations

emitting CO2 and not less –

just as Germany is finding out

UK CO2 savings 2006-7

DEFRA Press Release 28th March 2008

‘In 2007, UK emissions of carbon dioxide were…. 2 per cent lower than the 2006 a fall of 10.8 million tonnes.

The decrease resulted from fuel switching from coal to natural gas for electricity generation, combined with lower fossil fuel consumption by households and industry’

No mention of wind, or other renewables!

OUTLINE





• Houses supplied


• benefits

4.Planning – a question of balance


PLANNING - a question of balance

Power generationCO2 savings

adverse

total of

impacts

Sum

In order to come to a fair conclusion Councillors have to consider the claimed benefits of any scheme

against its negative impacts

1. PPS22 (Policy Planning Statement 22)

2. PPS1 (Delivering Sustainable Development)

3. Regional Spatial Strategy for the NW4. Cumbria & Lake District Joint Structure

Plan (2001-2016) – especially Policy R44

5. Cumbria Wind Energy SPD6. Local Plans

PPS 22 Key Principle 1 states;

• ‘Renewable energy developments should be capable of being accommodated throughout England in locations where the technology is viable and environmental, economic, and social impacts can be addressed satisfactorily’.

The CWESPD states;

‘… [the landscape character assessment] only provides an indication of the relative capacity of different landscapes. It should not be used in a definitive sense, i.e. to mean that a particular proposal would be acceptable….’

Valid planning issue include:• Landscape impact• Visual impact (including cumulative)• Impact on habitats & species (designated)• Impact on tourism• Historical and cultural heritage• Impact on water supplies (home and

rivers)• Impact on telecommunications• Noise, vibration & flicker

Visual Impact of wind turbinesCriteria of the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary

Planning Document, August 2006

1. Dominant up to 2.4km

2. Prominent 2.4 to 6km

3. Conspicuous 6 to 12 km

4. Apparent 12 to 18 km

5. Inconspicuous 18 to 30km

Inspectors Report on the Whinash Public Inquiry says;

3.25, p33 - ‘These impacts are not only the physical presence of the turbines but …….also the natural inclination of the eye is to focus on discordant, moving features when scanning the landscape

What the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document says

about Cumulative Impact;

• Para 4.1, page 11 – ‘…It is likely that increasing significance will be attached to cumulative effects in the future’.

• Para 4.3, page 12 – ‘…unacceptable cumulative effect may on its own provide sufficient justification to oppose a scheme which was otherwise acceptable’.

‘I now have it in writing [from the Inspectorate] that the cumulative effect should be a factor in planning determinations and that the number of similar turbines in one area is now a material consideration’

Times & Star, 26th October 2007

Workington MP Tony Cunningham says;

The view of English Heritage

• SETTING. ‘… consideration should be given to the impact of wind energy developments on the wider landscape setting and visual amenity of historic sites’

• Consideration of the historic environment should include World Heritage Sites;……historic buildings and areas; designated landscapes; and the historic character of the wider landscape’.

Wind Energy and the Historic Environment, English Heritage October 2005.

CCC have voted to back the Lake District bid for World Heritage Site status

• ‘…..we consider proposals……on their merits and through a professional assessment of the potential impact on National Parks including their setting’

• This generally means that we object to large scale developments near to Park boundaries and support smaller scale or domestic turbines within them’.

Letter from Ruth Chambers Deputy Chief Executive CNP

to Angela Kelly, Country Guardian,

29th September 2007

CNP, 6/7 Barnard Mews, London, SW11 1QU. 020 7924 4077 [email protected]

The view of the Council for National Parks

mailto:[email protected]

But doesn’t Cumbria have to meet Regional renewable energy targets?

Whinash Public Inquiry, (March 2006), paragraph 4.45, p.47 says;

‘The Applicant’s approach to the project recognises the national need for renewable energy. But Government policy does not dictate renewable energy at any cost’

Hoff Moor Public Inquiry (April 2008)

‘Targets are aspirations and do not have to be met at all costs’

WHAT DO INSPECTORS SAY ABOUT TARGETS


1. ‘Stribers wind farm will, when built, generate sufficient electricity for 8,500 homes and save many thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide.

2. Stribers fulfils many Local, Regional, National and European objectives in meeting the challenges of global warming and the effects of climate change’



DO W/Fs GENERATE JOBS?

• May be limited opportunities during the construction phase (up to 12 months)

• Most wind farms remotely monitored and foreign owned

• Maintenance jobs/servicing less than 2 people per 10 wind turbines

ANSWER THEREFORE IS NO

Their construction is driven by MONEY,- it’s as simple as that

Approximate income from Stribers w/f

• Therefore Stribers will generate 15 x 8760 x 24.3% = 31,930 MWhs

INCOME

1. Sale of electricity; 31,930 x £23 = £734,3902. ROC certificates; 31,930 x £48 = £1,532,640

3. Climate Change Levy & fines approx £250,000

• TOTAL INCOME per year = £2,517,030

• SO OVER 25 years income would be ~ £63 million

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cost of initial construction = £1 million per MW - £15,000,000Rent to land owners (say £10K/turbine/year) = £1,500,000)

There would also be costs of maintenance, repairs and financing bank loans for the original capital plus any legal costs and the community

fund (usually about 0.5% of income)

PLANNING - a question of balance

Power generationCO2 savings

Landscape, NP

Visual

Historical/Tourism

Social

Hoff Moor Public Inquiry, 11th April 2008,

paragraph 44

‘Overall, I consider that it is the combination of local landscape and visual harm that outweighs the benefit of contributing towards National and Regional targets for the production of renewable energy’

‘I dismiss the appeal’

This may be the right place for turbines

- Stribers is not -

Sunrise from Greenodd

BBC picture

“In the end, our society will be defined not only by what we create, but by what we refuse to destroy”

John C Sawhill, President, US Nature Conservancy Council

Landscape Character Types

Cumbria Wind Energy SPD

Upland fringes

Coastal limestone

Coastal margins

Drumlins

Intermediaate moorland plateau

It also includes several houses within 700 to 1,200 metres who may be troubled by noise

-------------------------------------------------------------------

• The Bradwell High Court case ‘….the noise conditions imposed were unenforceable’

• The Deeping St Nicholas case the Local Government Ombudsman stated that the planning conditions imposed were vague, open to interpretation, immeasurable and thus unenforceable’

Ways Forward

• Creation of a fair basis for target-setting• Seeking to work with other groups such as

FOLD and statutory bodies such as LDNPA, YDNPA, Natural England to present a united front

• Major letter writing campaign to MPs & Lords

• Enlisting support of NW MPs• Call for a PI into wind development in

Cumbria

Our Problems• Electricity security/supply muddled up with

issue of climate change & CO2 reduction• All political parties obsessed with w/fs• ‘Green’ groups have Government’s ear• Over commitment to EU aims• Target-driven to unrealistic levels• Current planning requires that each

application is dealt with on its merits• Government ‘cooking’ the planning books• No coordinated opposition

Economic madness• £100 billion to build wind farms [£4,000 per

household] BY 2020• £30+ billion to build 25GW of coal & gas back-up• £20 billion for 8 new nuclear reactors• ROC subsidies projected to reach £32 by 2027• £X billion for grid strengthening etc.

IT JUST DOES NOT MAKE SENSE

JOBS: developers often justify by their proposals by

quoting the Region Spatial Strategy, thus

‘..Rural diversification is needed in upland areas and the more

intensively farmed lowlands to create employment and generate

economic prosperity’

It also includes several houses within 700 to 1,200 metres who may be troubled by noise

-------------------------------------------------------------------

• The Bradwell High Court case ‘….the noise conditions imposed were unenforceable’

• The Deeping St Nicholas case the Local Government Ombudsman stated that the planning conditions imposed were vague, open to interpretation, immeasurable and thus unenforceable’

Three types of cumulative impactCCC Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, August 2006

1. Simultaneous combined visibility – when two or more schemes are visible from a viewpoint at the same time

2. Successive combined visibility – where the observer has to turn to see the successive schemes from the same viewpoint

3. Sequential visibility – where different schemes are seen as the observer moves through the countryside

Targets in the NW Sub-regions for 2010

NW Sub Region Renewables target1 (MW IC)

CO2 million tonnes per year2

Cumbria 237.3 5.9

Lancashire 199.4 11.1

Greater Manchester 153.2 15.9

Cheshire 110.4 12.1

Merseyside 46.3 7.8

1 = NW Regional Spatial Strategy, policy EM17

2 = NWRA Energy & GHG Emissions Study (AEA Group), page viii (August 2007)

A CARTMEL SUNSET

Energia’s specific claims?

• To generate 32 gigawatt hours a year

• To save 18,000 tonnes of CO2 a year

• To supply 8,500 homes a year

Christopher Barton (Director of UK Renewable Energy Strategy Project at the Department of Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform, [BERR} said to the House of Lords Inquiry on 17 March 2008.

‘....there will need to be greater overall generation capacity in the UK as you introduce more intermittent generation.....’

So more wind means more ordinary power stations emitting CO2 , not less

just as Germany are finding out

Q.12, page 9 in answer to a question from Lord Walpole

• European Union for the Transmission of Electricity Report, 2007 said;

‘…….other back up generation will negate a substantial portion of the CO2 saving by wind power….’

Graham Sinden said;

• ‘When wind power is added on to an electricity system, additional operating reserve is required because of the variability of wind power output’

G Sinden in Wind Power & the UK Wind Resource, Environmental Change Institute Oxford University, 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

C C

W = 33GW


W = 10GW

C

Spare capacity


W = WIND GENERATION

W = 2GW

Gordon Brown’s announcement

• EU target of 15% of ALL energy from renewables by 2020

• This means that 30-40% of all electricity would have to come from renewables mostly wind

• 7,000 new turbines (3000 offshore)

OBJECTIVES ARE UNATTAINABLE

Hoff Moor Public Inquiry, 11th April 2008

‘The calculations used at the time assumed emissions savings of 0.86t/MWh but…… increased use of gas, with cleaner coal technology and now with possible increased use of nuclear generation ….emissions savings per MWh of generated power may be considerably less’.

Flies in the Government ointment

• World turbine shortage

• World installation barge shortage

• Bad weather at sea

• Lack of Grid capacity

• Shell pull out of London Array

• AMEC pull out of wind farm sector

• A BERR (DTI) press release from Energy Minister Wicks on the

Fullabrook Down wind farm in North Devon used a CO2 saving of 0.37

tonnes/MWh

BERR (October 2nd 2007)

Do we need wind farms? NO

• New nuclear build likely• New clean coal power stations may arise• Govt now taking realistic action on energy

efficiency, transport, biomass, and local generation etc.

• With offshore wind farms and applications in Scotland, Wales & England the targets are already exceeded (>20GW in the pipeline)

EVEN WITHOUT THESE THE TARGETS CAN BE MET

• By 2010 the Government expects ALL RENEWABLES to be saving 9.2 million tonnes

• Homes produce 84 million tonnes of CO2 per year. If every home in the UK saved 10% of its electricity it would reduce this by 8.4 million tonnes.

Co2 EMISSIONS & RENEWABLE TARGETS FOR NW SUB-REGIONS

NW SUB-REGION CO2 emissions

(million tonnes/yr)

Target (MW IC of renewable energy)

Greater Manchester 15.9 153.2

Cheshire 12.1 110.4

Lancashire 11.1 199.4

Merseyside 7.8 46.3

Cumbria 5.9 237.3

1 = NWRA Energy & GHG Study, August 2007

2 = Submission Draft of the NW Regional Spatial Strategy. Policy EM17

The Inspectors decision letter rejecting the Hoff Moor wind farm in March 2008 said (paragraph 27);

‘In my view, wind turbines are likely to, but not necessarily would have, significant impact at distances up to 5km …. and may in some particular circumstances have significant impacts at distances beyond that’.

Documents

Cartmel Village Hall, Monday 4 th August 2008 Dr Mike Hall, Vice-chairman, FELLS