CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020 Workforce …€¦ · Systems 3. Business, Management, and Administration 4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology 5. Health Science

RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

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RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

Central Minnesota

Overview

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• Community Profile• Workforce Impacts of COVID-19• Shifting Opportunities• Accessible Career Pathways

Central Minnesota

Access the full regional report here:http://www.realtimetalent.org/cte2020

http://www.realtimetalent.org/research-2/cte-pathways/

IF YOU COULD DO ONE THING…

Of the following workforce-related

issues, which do you feel is the most important to be

addressed right now in your community?

Polling Question1. Improving broadband internet or technology

access2. Attracting younger talent / Addressing an aging

workforce3. Changing the variety or volume of local

educational offerings4. Providing immediate financial relief to small

businesses experiencing economic stress5. Increase supports for vulnerable populations

(this may include BIPOC communities, people with disabilities, disconnected youth, people experiencing poverty, the uninsured, or people who have become unemployed during the pandemic)

6. None of these issues need to be addressed in my community

Community Profile

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2.7% Hispanic/Latinx

5.3% Hispanic/Latinx

Central Minnesota

American Community Survey 2014-2018.

Community Profile

7

Central Minnesota

American Community Survey 2014-2018.

Community Profile

8

Central Minnesota

Community Profile

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Central Minnesota

NCES IPEDS 2017-18 awards and enrollment data.

Community Profile

10

Central Minnesota

Community Profile

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Central Minnesota

156

177

178

188

189

220

247

277

319

816

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Offices of Physicians (exceptMental Health Specialists)

Commercial Banking

Electrical Contractors andOther Wiring Installation…

Insurance Agencies andBrokerages

Child Day Care Services

Convenience Stores

Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors

Other Individual and FamilyServices

Elementary and SecondarySchools

Full-Service Restaurants

Businesses by Industry (Top Ten)

DatabaseUSA, Accessed September 2020.

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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• Age• Race/ethnicity• Gender• Some medical conditions• Use of certain medications• Poverty and crowding• Certain occupations• Pregnancy

Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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Central Minnesota

When you think about the current economic

situation in your community, which of the following career fields do you feel has

the most challenging or pressing workforce

needs to be addressed right now? (select up to

two)

Polling Question

1. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources

2. Arts, Communications, and Information Systems

3. Business, Management, and Administration

4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology

5. Health Science Technology6. Human Services

When you think about your local school,

district, or consortium’s programming, how well

do you feel current program offerings

address your community’s most

challenging or pressing workforce needs right

now?

Polling Question

1. To a Great Extent2. Somewhat3. Very Little4. Not at all5. I do not know

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability

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Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Occupational Vulnerability

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Estimated 26% of local occupations are high contact-intensity and may have higher than average exposure to COVID-19.

Based on analysis by Dingel, C. L., and B. Neiman (2020): “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” NBER Working Paper No. 26948.Leibovici, F., A. M. Santacreu, and M. Famiglietti (2020): “Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations,” FRB St. Louis Technical Report, URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/social-distancing-contact-intensive-occupations#:~:text=Food%20and%20beverage%20serving%20workers%20are%20at%20the%20bottom%20of,K%20to%2012th%20grade%20teachers.

Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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5-Year Forecast Comparison in Central Minnesota

Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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COVID-19-Impacted High Contact-Intensity Occupation Employment 5-Year Forecast in Central Minnesota

Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

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Unemployment Insurance Applicants as a Share of Total Labor Force by County, March 16 – August 27, 2020

Employment by County, 2020Q1

Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Central Minnesota


21Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Central Minnesota


22Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

Central Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Mid-Term Occupational Impacts

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Central Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Remote Work Jobs by County, 2020Q1

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Central Minnesota


25Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

Central Minnesota


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Employment, Annual Openings, and Wages by Career Cluster

Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

Career Cluster Employment Avg Ann Wages Job Ads

Ann Empl Growth

Ann Total Demand

Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 2,787 $84,200 128 6 214

Information Technology 4,016 $73,900 243 22 324

Finance 7,347 $68,900 498 15 705

Health Science 25,308 $67,900 1,632 204 2,187

Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources 19,842 $57,100 496 20 2,315

Government & Public Administration 2,183 $56,300 62 4 197

Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security 6,512 $55,900 235 2 610

Architecture & Construction 22,825 $55,600 570 179 2,689

Business, Management & Administration 39,440 $54,100 1,487 -146 4,115

Education & Training 19,257 $51,200 557 -7 1,737

Arts, A/V Technology & Communications 3,696 $48,700 101 -23 375

Manufacturing 29,114 $42,500 1,243 -119 3,054

Transportation, Distribution & Logistics 21,992 $40,600 1,397 30 2,643

Marketing, Sales & Service 32,392 $39,900 2,191 -50 4,439

Human Services 17,029 $36,500 1,278 201 2,435

Hospitality & Tourism 33,275 $27,800 2,093 210 5,779

Total - All Occupations 277,708 $48,400 13,901 525 32,757

Central Minnesota


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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Carpenters• Truck Drivers• Construction Managers• Plumbers, Pipefitters, and

Steamfitters• Operating Engineers• Maintenance and Repair

Workers• Supervisors of Construction

Trades & Extraction Workers• Electricians• Painters (Construction/Maint.)• Industrial Engineers


Central Minnesota


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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• General and Operations

Managers• Financial Managers• Personal Service Managers• Accountants and Auditors• Project Management

Specialists• Market Research Analysts• Management Analysts• Cooks• Insurance Sales Agents• Sales Representatives


Central Minnesota

Emerging Career Paths

29Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Top Emerging Occupations March 1-August 31, 20201. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer and Truck Drivers (+54%)2. Laborers and Freight, Stock/Material Movers (+476%)3. Personal Care Aides (+143%)4. Retail Salespersons (+21%)5. Customer Service Representatives (+51%)6. Insurance Sales Agents (+96%)7. Work From Home (not specified occupation) (+43%)8. Drivers/Sales Workers (+131%)9. Stock Clerks - Stockroom (+21%)10. Social and Human Services Assistants (+7%)

New Job Postings by City, March 1-August 31, 2020

995

1,064

1,072

1,087

1,193

1,213

1,413

1,580

2,990

7,999

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Wyoming

Cambridge

Little Falls

Sauk Rapids

Saint Michael

Albertville

Buffalo

Monticello

Elk River

St. Cloud

2020 2019

Central Minnesota

Emerging Skill Gaps

30Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Central Minnesota

Top 10 Skill Gaps in Central Minnesota

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Merchandising 112 226 -114

Finance 222 312 -90

Manufacturing 401 453 -52

Heavy Equipment Operation 99 148 -49

iOS 7 52 -45

Point of Sale Systems (POS Systems) 23 67 -45

Cash Handling (Cashier) 148 188 -41

Landscaping 79 119 -40

Scissor Lifts 10 50 -40

Data Entry 129 165 -36

Top 10 Certification Gaps in Central Minnesota

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) 113 135 -22

Certified Public Accountant (CPA) 47 60 -13

AFAA Personal Fitness Trainer 1 11 -10

Pediatric Advanced Life Support (PALS) 23 33 -10

Certified Internal Auditor (CIA) 1 9 -7

Registered Respiratory Therapist (RRT) 3 9 -6

Critical Care Registered Nurse (CCRN) 5 11 -6

Certified Information Systems Auditor (CISA) 2 8 -6

Certified Protection Professional (CPP) 1 6 -6

Clinical Nurse Specialist (CNS) 0 5 -5

Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less

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Central Minnesota


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Central Minnesota


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Central Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

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Central Minnesota


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Central Minnesota


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Central Minnesota

In Summary

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Insights Unique to the Northwest• Two key community vulnerabilities to address

(disconnected youth, disabilities)• Pine County may be hit hardest due to local industries• August 2020 Unemployment: 23,890 or 6% (DEED

Northwest Planning Region LAUS)• In addition to the list on the left, especially high UI

applications among Other Production Occupations• High-wage, high-growth, high-demand jobs of the

future require long-term training, a certificate, or 2-year degree or higher

• 11 of the 16 career clusters are poised to see employment growth over the next ten years

Common Across Minnesota• Registered Nursing is the top occupation of shortage• Human Services is the top growing career cluster• Women are more likely to be employed in high contact-

intensity occupations• Younger workers, people without a college degree, women,

and BIPOC talent in Minnesota all applied for UI at high rates• Commonalities among top occupations applying for UI:

• Food and Beverage Serving Workers• Retail Sales• Personal Services• Construction Trades Workers

• Commonalities among top emerging occupations:• Finance Cluster: Sales agents, Insurance, Loan Officers• Therapeutic Services Pathway: Personal Care Aides and

Registered Nurses• Transportation Operations Pathway: Drivers and delivery

Central Minnesota

What piece of the data surprised, inspired, validated, or

challenged you?

Discussion Question 1

From your perspective, what are the most important

considerations in these data for Career and Technical Education

programs?


What is one barrier that you can help remove for BIPOC

students?


What additional information will you seek out next?


What changes or evaluations to your program will you prioritize

next as a result of this data?


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Thank you!

If you have questions about this report, please contact:Erin Olson, Research Strategist, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020 Workforce …€¦ · Systems 3. Business, Management, and Administration 4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology 5. Health Science