Carbon on Steroids: The Untold Story of Methane, Climate,

and Health

Kirk R. Smith, PhD, MPH Professor of Global Environmental Health

University of California, Berkeley Nobel Laureate 2007 At the

0.02% level

California Air Resources Board Sacramento

November 10, 2008

Carbon dioxide is important

Do not think otherwise

The Methane Story: CH4

Five subplots: • Methane and global warming • Methane and global health • Methane and the health of the poor • Methane and global equity • Methane and history

What I am not speaking about

Particular methane reduction possibilities in California

Potential for runaway methane emissions as positive feedback in global warming

l

l

II

1Almosphe,riiie:

Greenhous1e 1gas iaoncentratiiions

~---'--~:_:_~:_:_:_~~t---'~W·we~n~t_nm 1anufacturi:ng

Mlethane Landfills. Rice,

Live!stock

Wa.st1e manage1m1en1 Fo,ssil r,ecov,i?..J~~

ltO F,ert'il'izer Pl,ant1ed IN-fixers

Comlbus.ti:on Fmgurei SPM.·1

A.nthr1opog1enic .sour,c,es

coi Fo,ssi l fue~s

Ill ! Land use 1change

10000 50D oIPCC 2.007 Time ( or 2mos)

0 1CEAN WATER

FRESH! · WATER

ME: HY

Only one-third of emissions from natural sources

1790

1 7 ,8 0 1.-----..__,

1770

1760

2004 2005

lobal llly Av,eraged

2006 2007

Emissions expected to grow at ~1.5% per year until 2030 – similar to CO2

Halocarbons

HFCs

GO

NOx

NIMVOC

Sulfate (d;rect)

Surface a lbedo (land use:)

-0.5

. Cs. HC Cs. halons

- 03,(T)

I

Black carbon (snollV i;i/bedo)

- Contraills

-So llar

0 .5 Radiative F,o rcin

Blaclk carbon

Organic ca bon

Mineral dust

Aerosols

Land use

S.ola1r irradiiance

1

Warming in 2005 from emissions since 1750

Methane more than half of total from CO2

IPCC, 2007

1. Methane and Global Warming A much more powerful greenhouse gas (GHG)than CO2 Partly due to its direct effect, but also because it creates ozone (O3), another powerful GHG Nearly 100 times more per ton than CO2 at anyone time (73x from direct effects) Eventually turns to 2.75 times as much CO2 by mass Methane has thus contributed a significant amountto global warming, more than half that of CO2 But has a much shorter atmospheric lifetimecompared to CO2

Math of GHG Decay (AR4) • CO2 goes into four compartments:

– 19% of total with a lifetime* of 1.2 years – 34% at 18.5 y – 26% at 173 y – 21% with a lifetime of “many thousand

years” • Methane has a 12 y lifetime,

– but contributes to ozone, a GHG – and eventually oxidizes to CO2

*Lifetime refers to the time to reach 1/e (37%) of the original amount

Natural CO2 and CH4 Depletion - first 10 years

Fraction remaining of

2008 emissions

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

Carbon Dioxide Methane

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Natural CO2 and CH4 Depeletion - 100 years

Fraction Remaining

of Gas Emitted in

2008

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Relative Warming from CO2 and CH4 emitted in 2008

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Pattern of Future

Warming from Equal

Emissions (t of CO2; t of CH4)

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Not equal warming per year until 2075 (67 years)

Not equal total warming until AD 7430 (5422 years)

Actually two types of methane

Biogenic methane (ruminants, biomass combustion, landfills, etc.) – the CO2 it creates is renewable, i.e., does not add to atmospheric load of CO2

Fossil methane (natural gas, coal mines, fossil fuel combustion) – the CO2 it creates does add to the load

Livestock 30%

Coal mining

6%

Biomass burn 3%

Fossil fuel burn 1%

Waste water

9%

Landfills 12%

Rice 10%

Manure 4%

Oi/gas 18%

Other ag 7%

Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions ~2005 Total ~ 305 million tons

Expected to grow at ~1.5% per year USEPA, 2006

~47 kg/cap Fossil methane ~25%

R elative Warming of Methane and C O 2

from E mis s ions in 2008

08

28

48

68 8

08

80 20 20 0 0 212 2 2

Future Warming of Fossil Methane and CO 2 from Equal Emissions in 2008

100

F uture Annual

10Warming from O ne

Ton of E ach P ollutant 1

R eleas ed in 2008

Warming from C O2

Warming from Methane

Includes CO2 produced by the methane

0.1

Warmin g Contributio n of Tot al -2008 Emiss io n s of M eth an e Compared t o Tot al CO2 Emiss io n s

Fraction 0 -8 0 -+---------~ ::---------------1 o f CO2

Warn1ing fron1 O · 6 O -+-------------~ ~ --------1

Methane

0.40

0.20

0 . 0 0 ----..------,...--------.------,-------.-----.----..--------.------.------t

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Global methane releases in 2008 create 84% of the warming over the next 20 years as the CO2 released in 2008

How can we compare projects to reduce different GHGs?

Why not just take all future warming into account? This would mean that no effort would go into avoidingemissions of the shorter lived GHGs, such as methane,because CO2 has such a long lifetime. It would result in spending most money to protect peoplethousands of years into the future and ignoring the needs ofourselves and our children. Thus, the IPCC established in 1996, official GlobalWarming Potentials (GWPs), which are weighting factorsto compare the impact of different GHGs GWPs are built into the Kyoto Protocol, the CleanDevelopment Mechanism, and nearly all nationalinventories and reduction plans, including those forCalifornia.

Methane and Time The current official GWPs are based on 100-year time horizons

Methane is 21 x CO2 by weight (25 in AR4) Equivalent to ~0.75% discount rate

For making decisions on how to spend resources when impacts are upon us, <1% is too low. The other GWP published by IPCC, has a 20-year time horizon

Methane is 72 x CO2 by weight Equivalent to ~ 8% discount rate More compatible with financial investments

International health investments use a 3% discount rate, which would be a GWP of ~48

W

Relative Warming from CO2 and CH4 emitted in 2008

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Pattern of Future

arming fromEqual

Emissions(t of CO2;t of CH4)

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Relative Warming from CO2 and CH4 emitted in 2008 (one ton of each)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2028 2048 2068 2088 2108

Carbon Dioxide Methane

20 years – 72x

100 years – 25x

Methane GWPs and Discount Rates

90 80 70 60

Equivalent 50 GWP 40

30 20 10 0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5

25

39 48

55 61

66 70 73 76 78 Official GWP of 21 ~0.75% discount rate

At GWP=25, ~1% DR

Annual Discount Rate -%

Methane GWPs and Time Horizons

120

100

80 Equivalent

60GWP 40

20

0

A GWP of 48 (3% discount rate) ~ 40-year time horizon

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time Horizon - Years

Integrated Radiahve· Forcing for Year 2000 G llobal Emissions (Weighted by 100-yr and 20-yr time holiizons)

Long-liv,ed greenhouse gases

I

O rganic carbon ( FF)

I ,so I

I

Cloud albedo _J I

I

Long-liv,ed greenhouse ,g1ases

I I

Organ~c carbon (FIF)

so

6 .. FCs I

' - HCFCs

I

00, NMV~C + NOx} I

Black carbon ( FF),

Short-lrirved gases I . I

I I

Aerosolls and ae·rosol precursors

i=~ --ti _ SIF6 PIFCs + H FCs

LHCFCs .

I co, NMVO~ + NO,._}

I

Bila.ck carbon ( FF),

Sliort-lirved gases I I I

Aero.soils and ae•rosoll pr,ecuirsors

-11 0 1 2 r1

3 I nt,e 11rat,ed radiative ford n

100-y horizon

Time perspective makes a difference

20-y horizon

IPCC, 2007

Methane #1: Summary A much more powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) than CO2 Partly due to its direct effect, but also because it createsozone (O3), another powerful GHG Nearly 100 times more per ton than CO2 at any one time Eventually turns to 2.75 times as much CO2 by mass Methane has thus contributed a significant amount toglobal warming, But has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime compared toCO2 Thus, changes in emission rates will have a much fasterimpact to lower warming than changes in CO2 emissions But there is also more variability in the system

2. Methane and Global Health

Increases of wide-scale tropospheric (ground-level) ozone is becoming a major world problem A significant health-damaging pollutant Damaging to ecosystems and agriculture Methane emissions are the main cause Reduction of methane emissions, therefore, will help protect health worldwide immediately

l

Methane as a Global Ozone Precursor

Urban Global hν hν

O3 O3

OHHO2

NO NO2

NMVOCs, CO

OHHO2

NO NO2

NMVOCs, CO, CH4

Livestock 30%

Coal mining

6%

Biomass burn 3%

Fossil fue burn 1%

Waste water

9%

Landfills 12%

Rice 10%

Manure 4%

Oi/gas 18%

Other ag 7%

Backgroun1d Ozone is Gro · _ ing , ..

I I

! J

/ - . ' . . ,. ,..

J/ ' ' : . ' ' ' .... . . . : . .

' .,. ..... ......... -........ •~·-::--~-:

.... .... .....

a ""T"'- --r"""T""""T"""""T"""~ ........... ----........... ---.--...._-

I 3~1ll 1890 ]Sil 19:3i j 9'Slll l!I 1'9!iil0

QZ]on 1e trend at Europ 1ean mountain sites, 1870-·1990 (Mar1enco et all., 1994).

o !PIC 41■ ).f[Dl n) (191P. ) (]S9(l ,g•~

alt ZulPJiii... ,jJ!l(l(l 1111)

(1,77

• IIIM: pt · · i;-g m] (1~71-~ )

,o Amt■ (i: ill)

{h9SM3)

,IL , 1ilaJ l°H J f1_'SOO ill) l l'!llll)

■ .f•nt:fn-ijnih ()IWI (lm) -

• r te 'Ila 1t1mli (JOOl! mJ ( I If'+ IS@}

, .. and Will 1Continue to Grow!

Histor'ic 1and future incre 1ases 'in !background o.zo1ne ar1e due 1mainly to incre1asedl m1ethane and N1Ox emissions (Wang et al, 1998; Prather et al. , ,2003) .

20 :25 30 35

03 cha1nge (pplb

Mauzerall 2007

• ·1 _ _

C,os,t-saving r,eductions

<$,110 J ton

c ,02 eq1.

AlI identified reductions

North America ■ Annex Ill I World

.20%of

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Me1hane reduction potential (Mton CH4 yr"1)

W,es! ,& Fiore 2005 ._

1Me•·•tiha~n1e•·•r-e_·.duc-t,'1· ,o·· n- p-,o·· te•·•n-t1·1 ,a--~-1fr,o·m:1 IEA·:-·:_(2-•-- -' 10 1.0·•3::)· t ·,,o-·•- , r · c.o,a~I ,_0 • 1 '1·1 1a._n·1,d· -g·,•· a-s----.. . . ' . . . . - . - .. I . . . . I . . ) . ' ·.. . . . · . ' .I ·. . . . : -- .

,o_-p•.e·rat1·1'0•·ns'. --· ·w--a-s.. -1·,,e·w -,-a,·-te•·•r a.-n,d. la~n- d·· 1f,"'1 llls·• m- ,a,··x·-- ·1'1 m- um- t,e·- -c .h ·

- 1n·-'1·1 ,c•a-- lly----- __ I _, _ _ , _ . __ __ , _ I __ _ _ _ ,, I _ - I _ I __ - _ _

feasible in 2i010.

9a°N

6CfN

3CfN

- - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - r -

_______ , ____ .,

60°S

90°S, 180° 12ffW

.. J • • - • • • • • • • •

60°W 6CfE 112ffE

Effect of a reduction of 20% (~61 MT) in global methane emissions on tropospheric ozone

West et al., PNAS, 2006

60°W 6CfE 12CPE

Per million population

Reduction in ozone mortality from 20% reduction in methane emissions

West et al, PNAS, 2006

Methane #2: Summary

• Methane is precursor to tropospheric (ground level) ozone

• Tropospheric ozone rising around the world • Significant impact on natural ecosystems and

agriculture • WHO and other agencies lowering ozone

standards/guidelines because of newevidence on mortality and continued evidenceof morbidity

• Standards suggested by health protection are now at the top end of regional levels in someparts of the world, e.g., Europe

• Nowhere to hide

L

\ \

\

\_

"New renewable energysources"

2.2%

World Energy – 2001 OilNatural Gas

"Modern" Biomass

Other

1.4% Renewables

0.8%

Traditional Biomass

9.3%

35.1%21.7%

Nuclear 6.9%

Coal Hydro 22.6%2.3%

Population: 6.102 billion Total energy use: 10.2 Gtoe Per capita energy consumption: 1.67 toe

World Energy Assessment, 2004

3. Methane and the health of the poor

Recovered wood products from previous years

2,B

M.micipal solid & industrial waste

Agrofuels

Municipal by-products

Solid municipal biomass

Traditional solid rcoal, Straw, etc.)

35

M:idem solid

Losses (Refinery ,Transport,

Transfonnation)

DIii

I ~I Data are expressed in &ajoule (E.J) -,

IPCC 2007, WGIII

i1onal Household Soli'd F1uel Use, 20,00

c;&"!II!:.?;:- - -2111111, -

- • ' ~r ·

'.,, . . ..

~___, <20% D 20% - 40% - 40% - so% - 60% - so% - >80%

~ Household solid fuel use known

1.:.:,_:·'.· :· :;·:·.~-:_·._JI No data ~>~·:· ;;-·::·:~ - - - -'-

National Household Use of Biomass and Coal in 2000

Greenhouse warming commitment per meal for typical wood-fired cookstove in China

CO2 Carbon: 403 g

Methane Carbon:

3.8 g

Other GHG Carbon Carbon Monoxide: 38 g Hydrocarbons: 6.3 g

Nitrous Oxide 0.018 g

Wood: 1.0 kg

454 g Carbon Plus PM2.5 and Black Carbon

403 g 86 g 131 g 69 g

4.7 g

Global warming commitments of each of the gases as CO2 equivalents

Zhang, et al., 2000

INDIA

Percentage o,f Bio.fuel user llouseholds

1111 75-100

~ 50-74

Unknown,

C,

Percent of Households Using Biomass Fuels

Nearly 2 million tons methane per year of the ~ 305 Mt total global human emissions

Smith, et al. 2000

2001 Census

Wood: 1 kg 15.3 MJ

Traditional Stove15% moisture

Energy flows in a well-operating traditional wood-fired cookstove

A Toxic Waste Factory!!

Typical biomass cookstoves convert 6-20% of the fuel carbon to toxic substances

Into Pot 2.8 MJ 18%

In PIC 1.2 MJ

8%

Waste Heat 11.3 MJ

74%

Source: Smith,PIC = products of incomplete combustion = CO, HC, C, etc. et al., 2000

Toxic Pollutants in Biomass Fuel Smoke from Simple (poor) Combustion

• Small particles, CO, NO2 • Hydrocarbons

Plus methane – 25+ saturated hydrocarbons such as n-hexane – 40+ unsaturated hydrocarbons such as 1,3 butadiene – 28+ mono-aromatics such as benzene & styrene – 20+ polycyclic aromatics such as benzo(α)pyrene

• Oxygenated organics – 20+ aldehydes including formaldehyde & acrolein – 25+ alcohols and acids such as methanol – 33+ phenols such as catechol & cresol – Many quinones such as hydroquinone Naeher, et al. – Semi-quinone-type and other radicals 2007

• Chlorinated organics such as methylene chloride and dioxin

Diseases for which we have epidemiological studies showing a link to household biomass use

ALRI/ Pneumonia (meningitis)

Low birth weight

Asthma?

Early infant death?

Birth defects?

Cognitive Impairment?

Chronic obstructive lung disease

Tuberculosis

Blindness (cataracts, trachoma)

Cancer? (lung, NP, cervical, aero-digestive)

Heart disease?

LJ LJ

\ - - - -~ - - ~ - - - ~ ~ -

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the

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fac

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t

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sex

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pre

ssure

To

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cco

Alco

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wa

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nita

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stero

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rwe

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al h

aza

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s (5 kin

ds)

Ro

ad

traffic a

ccide

nts*

Ph

ysical in

activity

Le

ad

(Pb

) po

llutio

n

Urb

an

ou

tdo

or a

ir po

llutio

n

Clim

ate

cha

ng

e

Smith et al.

4.9 million prem

aturedeaths/y

1.6 million prem

ature deaths/y tw

o-thirds from A

RI in children

0.15 million prem

ature deaths/y

2005 (based on 0

%

2%

4

%

6%

8

%1

0%

W

HO

data) P

ercent o

f All D

AL

Ys in

2000

Indian Burden of Disease from Top 10 Risk Factors and Selected Other Risk Factors

Underweight

Unsafe water/sanitation-E*

Indoor smoke-E

Unsafe sex

Iron deficiency

Tobacco

Blood pressure

Child cluster Vaccination

Cholesterol

Road traffic accidents

Zn Deficiency

Low fruit & veg

Occupational (5 kinds)-E

Lead (Pb)-E

Climate change-E

Urban outdoor air-E

World Health 0%Reports – 2001, 2002

Other environmental risk factors

420,000 deaths/year

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Percent of All DALYs in 2000

$ur:ly Odd~ Ratio (r@nc!Qlil) 'Weig~ OQ~~ RfttiQ (nmdQITI) or rub-eeilegory 96<:;.; Cl % M¼Cl

01 ~tv~n Studie:;: Smllh(2007)a S. S:3 L 18 10 . 88 , 1.5,8,]

Smitti(::2007)b ---- 5 . 13 l..35 l l..05 , 1. 73] Suntafal (~5% Cl) • ll. 2 6 l. 29 Ll. 06 , l. S ;! ]

Test tor heter-ogen.ay: Cl'lt' = o . .;8, di = 1 (I'= 0.49) , • = 0%

Tes! ror overall eflect: r = 2.61$ (P = o .01)

02 Cotiart ~ uclles Arms1ron~ 199,1 )a 2 . 81l 0 . 51l ro . . :rn, 1 . 2.2 ] ~ rmskan~1991 )IJ 3 . 6;s l. 9'0 l O. ~6 , ~ - 715 ]

Ca~ell(1 989) :3 _v; :! . 8,0 l l.29', 6 _ 08 ]

Ei:urti(2001 ) 3 . 86 2 . 33 ll . :23, ,t . 40) Jin(t 99J) s. 15;91 0. 80 [ 0 . 62 , L09 ]

Par1dey(1 989)a 4. 3.4 2.45 1 L 4 3 , 4.1·9J Pendey(1 989)b ► l . 52 4,0 . E>S 19 . 79, 168 . ?SJ

&lt:ltOI~ (95% Cl) • 2:$.11 z. 12: l L O~ , "I . ZS ]

Test 'o.r heterogen.e.liy: Crli' = 54.07, d1 = 6 (P < 0.00 1), I'= 88.9'% Test tiilr (Werall eflect Z = 2.11 (P = 0 .OJ)

03 C~e:-Cootm1 Sllldies A,;i.;i(1 OOS) 3 . ::17 l . ZQl ro .E-s , 2 . 21 1 a~or(20D1) ---- 4. 4.9 2 .Sl l l. 51 , 4 . 17 1 Collinr,s 1 990) -- 4. 85 2. 16 [ L 40, 3.33] De Frenci,.00(1003) 2 . !S S . 23 l.l . '.1 2: , u . n 1 fon~e.,c~(1 996) 4. 68 1. 14 l 0 . ?1 , 1 . 82: ]

Jatinsor.;19912)a 3 . 15 o. 8:1) 10.36, 1. 781 KO$!l()Vi;!(1082) l . g,~ 4 . '1'7 l l . ,<14, U: . 74.]

Kumatl 2004) 2 . 4.5 $.87 I L 42., 10. S'? ] Mallalar118bas(2002) 3 . 53 3 . 97 12 . 00, 1. 88] Mort is(1S90) 2. Ill 4 .BS [ J__ '7 i , U-~Cl l otle~sey('199S) z. 5;9 z. ss 1.0 . 98, S . S'li] Robin(1 996)a 2 . 95 l . ~I) ro. ,o, a: . 28] \11ictor ( 93 )a, 4.09 J. . 10 [ 0. 61., 1 .£)'8 ]

V\favset200-t) Z . 9'0 1. 39 l 0 . 58 , 3 . :3,0] VVesley(1 996) l . 87 l . JS [ 0 . :39, f . 63]

Suntolal (95% Cl) .. d.8 . lS L 9 7 l l..4 7 , 2 . 1os1 1 Test wr heterogen.eliy: C = 32.7.2, d1 = 14 (P = 0.0 , ), I'' = 57 .2% Test fiilr "'mall ef lect; Z. = 4.5'3 (IP < 0 .00001 )

04 Cross-sectlooal stud~s Mishrs.(2003) 3 . 83 2 . 20 l l . 16, 4 . l ·SJ Mi!hi' 1!!1(2D05) .S. 11:7 L !i,8 [ L 28 , 1.:eis·1 lt\kt 11mann(21D08) s.n L 29 11. 02 , l.S.31

SUbtalsl (95% Cli) • 1S. 'i8 l . 'i9 fl.:i:l , .1.SS J THI fo,r Mtiero~n- ,y;. Chi' ,. 3.19, di " 2 (P ,. 0.20) , " 37.3% Tesi or overall ettect: Z. = 3.74 (IP = 0 .0002)

Totl.!II (QS"lo Cl) • 0 0. 0 0 J.. 7 8 l L •4 S , 2. J. B l Test or heterogen.eiy: Chi' = 101.74, d1 = 26 (P .: 0. 001 ), I' = 74 :4% Te~ fiilr civeraH et iect: l = 5.61 (f;) < 0 .00001 )

~~-~

0.1 02 0.5 2 5 10

lrx:re!!~(;!~k; Oecre!l.g,e(j r~~

Child Pneumonia -indoor air pollution

New Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Dherani et al. Bull WHO, 2008

Chinese household rural energy:

A Chinese Hybrid Gasifier Stove Winner of National Stove Contest

Efficiency 2x traditional stoves; Emissions 10-15x less: Low health risk and essentially no greenhouse emissions

Compared to Coal Stove

17% to 41% fuel efficiency 0.12 to 0.02 CO/CO2 1.6 to 0.26 g PM/kg fuel

18 W blower

•

Global Waming Per Meal

l eveL01MP

Health and Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Biomass Stove Options

ug/m3 Coal

1200 1000

800 600 400 200

0 1 10 100 1000

Biomass Gasifier StoveBiogas

Stove

grams-CO2-eq

Smith & Haigler, 2008 Global Warming Commitment per Meal

1 ,000

10

1

100

II 11111 1 ,000

II 11111 10,000

I I I II I 100,000

I I II II I 1 ,000,000

U_S_ Solar PV

I I 1111 I I I I I 11111

110 ,000 ,000 100,000,000

Health Cost Effectiveness (Int$/DALY)

Smith & Haigler, 2008

1 ,000

U_S_ Solar PV

China: Household coal to propane/LPG stoves U_S_ Hybrid vehicles

100

U _s _ Nuclear

10

tC02e offset

• DALYs avoided

China: Househ Id coal to biomass gasi:fii.er stoves

1

100 1 ,000 10,000 100,000 1 ,000,000 110 ,000 ,000 100,000,000

Health Cost Effectiveness (Int$/DALY)

Current Cost-effective Region In China

Smith & Haigler, 2008

Rural Energy is Linked to Three Major SectorsPaying for Rural Energy Development

Economic Development

Once global and national markets pick up their portions, local market can pay remainder

DR ~40%

National MDG Health

“Market”

1-3x $GDP/capita per DALY saved (WHO/IBRD, etc. recommendation) DR ~3%

Global Climate Market

$ per ton-carbon (world carbon market) – DR <1%

High-efficiency low-emissions rural energy technology is too expensive for local markets

Technology

Methane #3: Summary

• Methane is one of the constituents of products of incomplete combustion (PIC)from fuel combustion

• PIC are responsible for much burden of disease in the world’s poorest populations

• Controlling this PIC has a double benefit: health and climate

• Can potentially be done economically –low hanging fruit for both

4. Methane and Global Equity

• We have seen how methane’s health impacts, direct, indirect, and associated, mostly affect the poor

• What about methane emissions: how are they distributed?

Halocarbons

HFCs

Surface a lbedo (land use:)

-0.5

- Contraills

- So llar

0 .5 Radiative F,o rc in

Organi,c ca bon

Mineral dust

Aerosols

Land use

S.ola1r irradiiance

1

How much allocated to each living person from both GHGs --- our natural debts?

Warming in 2005 from emissions since 1750

More than half due to methane

IPCC, 2007

..c -

Nat

iona

l Nat

ural

Deb

ts:

Cum

ulat

ive

CO

2 em

issi

ons,

dep

lete

d by

nat

ural

pro

cess

es

Rat

io o

f lar

gest

to s

mal

lest

em

ittin

gco

untri

es ~

500

x

This

kin

d of

cal

cula

tion,

how

ever

is b

ased

onl

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Distribution of Global Natural Debt Among Top 10 Nations CO2 only in 2005

LUC USA 20% 21%

CHINA 8%

Other 26%

RUSSIA 6%

GERMANY 4%

FRANCE JAPAN

Brazil: 0.8% 2% CANADA

UKRAINE 2% 2%

UK 3% INDIA

4%

2%

Smith and Rogers,Nb. Land-use change emissions not are parsed out by country in preparation

USA Anthropogenic Methane Emissions ~2005 Total ~ 25 million tons

Fossil fuel burn

2% Manure

8%

Rice 1%

Waste water 7%

Oi/gas 24%

Livestock 22%

Landfills 25%

Coal mining 11%

~83 kg/cap ~8% of world

USEPA 2006

Methane Emissions from India in 2005 26.1 Mt (9% of world)

24 kg/cap

http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html

Chinese Methane Emissions in 2005 41 MT = 13% of world

31 kg/capita

Oi/gas, 1% Waste

Coal water, 13% mining, 16%

Landfills, 5%

Solid fuel combustion,

6% Rice, 26%

Livestock, Manure, 3% 30%

USEPA, 2006

Distribution of Global Natural Debts in Top 10 Nations CH4 and CO2 in 2005

[compared to CO2 alone; note decrease for USA, increase for China, and large increases for India and Brazil]

Other 33.2%

CHINA 10.9%

USA 17.1%

LUC 12.9%

RUSSIA 6.2%

INDIA 5.5%

GERMANY 3.3%

BRAZIL 2.4%

JAPAN 2.6%

CANADA 1.6%

UK 2.1%

UKRAINE 2.1% Smith and Rogers,

in preparationNb. National fossil fuel/cement emissions only for CO2, land-use change emissions are not parsed out by country

33%

19%

17%

17%

78%

KAZAKHSTAN

GERMANY

BELGIUM

UK

BRAZIL

Percent

52%

23%

30%

44%

19%

35%

44%

50%

72%

82%

71%

79%

69%

74%

92%

CO2 CH4

10 largest LDCs ~55% of world pop

methane

Ratio of largest to smallest emitters considering both CO2 and methane

Smith and Rogers, In preparation

RUSSIA

~ 40x

International Natural Debt Per Capita

Tons CO2 - eq

-

AUSTRALIA

USA

CANADA

UKRAINE

CZECH REPUBLIC

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

MEXICO

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIET NAM

INDIA

PAKISTAN

PHILIPPINES

NIGERIA

BANGLADESH

5. A Different Historical Framework

• Agrarian societies have been contributing to incipient climate change for several millennia.

• Reversing what would have been a natural decline in CO2 and methane in this period

• Excess GHGs are not just a feature of industrialization, although the rate has risen dramatically after the industrial revolution

NI. GRE THOIJ · -ND O YE.

D'epm'linumt of E.f'llin:inmema1 Scie,f'lres. Vmvei;ri~• afYl1ginia. Charlottesville.. '.4. ? .• U.S.A. E-mail: Jdc vi1ginia.ed~

Princeton U Press, 2006

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Carbon dioxide is important

However, …

Laws of Carbon-thermodynamics

I. Keep all fossil and forest carbon out ofthe atmosphere

II. If you cannot do so, the least-damagingform to release is carbon dioxide because all other forms are worse for climate and health.

III. Even renewable (non-fossil) carbon isdamaging for climate and health if notreleased as carbon dioxide.

Sulfate (d;rect)

Surface a lbedo (land use:)

-0.5

I

Black carbon (snollV i;i/bedo)

- Contraills

-So lla r

0 .5 Radiative F,o rcin

M ineral dust

Aerosols

Land use

S.ola1r irradiiance

1

Warming in 2005 from emissions since 1750

A large part from PIC: products of incomplete combustion

IPCC, 2007

Ranking of Carbon Emissions: The Pharmaceutical Index

• Carbon dioxide is noxious if fossil or forest derived, but benign if from renewable sources

• Products of incomplete combustion (PIC) such as carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons are likeCO2 on caffeine – several times worse

• Methane from any source (fossil, biologic, or incomplete combustion) is like CO2 on steroids – dozens of times worse.

• Black carbon in particles from incomplete combustion is like CO2 on crack – hundreds of times worse.

Conclusion on Methane • Methane emissions are more important than current

official weighting factors indicate because of its largeeffect over the next generation

• May well increase in “value”, perhaps during the post-Kyoto deliberations now starting

• Developing countries have a bigger role • Methane is emitted as part of the poor combustion

process of solid fuels, which also produce muchhealth-damaging pollution

• Contributes directly to global tropospheric ozone levels

• Improving this combustion offers substantial GHG as well as health benefits in a cost-effective manner

• Ways to control are quite different from CO2 • And may be easier in the short term

Methane – bottom lines?

• Way to reduce warming in the next generation is to put more attention onmethane (and other shorter lived GHGs)

• Once the heat enters Earth’s systems, it does not matter where it came from

• For some impacts, the rate of warming is asimportant as the total amount

• Only way to slow the rate is to immediately reduce methane emissions (and other short-lived GH pollutants)

• While working to stop CO2 in the long run

Carbon dioxide is still important

But, do you know your methane footprint?

California Methane Emissions 2004 – 1.2 MT

34.8 kg/capita 0.4% of world Coal

Oil & Gas Waste Water <0.1%

11% 11%

Biomass Combustion 1%

Enteric Fermentation 28%

Manure 2% 24%

CARB, 2008Prepared by J. Rogersfrom CARB data

Rice

Other Ag 1%

Landfill 22%

Publications and presentations available at

http://ehs.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmith/

Thank you