CarbonDioxideRemovalinEUClimatePolicy:strategicpolicydesignchoices

OliverGedenGermanInstituteforInternationalandSecurityAffairs(SWP)InstituteforScience,InnovationandSociety(InSIS),UniversityofOxford

ERCSTBrainstroming,Brussels,Sep24,2019

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Residualsvs.Removals Principle

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In-DepthAnalysisinsupportofCOM(2018)773final

Whichsectorstobenefitfromremovals?

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In-DepthAnalysisinsupportofCOM(2018)773final

DistributionalConsiderations

§Thehighertheresiduals/removalscolumns,themoreflexibilityinmitigationtrajectories

§Residualstobecomehighlypoliticisedcategory§Ifnoteverysector,companyorEUMemberStateneedstoeliminateallitsemissionsthenotherswillneedtogonetnegative

§Mainissues:Who‘sallowedtostayabovezero,whoneedstogonetnegtive(andhowfar)?Who‘sresponsiblefordeliveringremovals– andwho‘sgoingtopayforit?

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RemovalstoProlongNational(GDP-related)DifferentiationofEfforts?

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RemovalstoMaintainSpecificNationalEconomicStructures?

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EUStatisticalPocketbook2018

MainTakeaways

§EffortstoreachnetzerowillnotbeevenlydistributedamongsectorsandMemberStates-Distributionwillnotprimarilyfollowcost-optimaldesignsbutpoliticalconsiderations

§MajorEUdesignchoices-Integrationofremovalsintoexistingstructure(ETS–ESR– LULUCF)orcreationofspecific(tech)removalinstrument?-Opencompetition(nolimitsonremovals)orsplittargetsforconventionalmitigationandremovals(95%-5%or90%-10%)?-WhatisEUaimingforinthe(very)long-term?

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Backup

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Long-Term:NetZeroorFully NetNegative?

9 Gedenetal:TargetingCDRinEU(2019)

Long-Term:Slightly orFully NetNegative?

10 Gedenetal:TargetingCDRinEU(2019)

LULUCFEmissionsin2050

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In-DepthAnalysisinsupportofCOM(2018)773final

CO2-Capture,UtilisationandStorage

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In-DepthAnalysisinsupportofCOM(2018)773final