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Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington DC

Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

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Page 1: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike AsharExecutive Vice PresidentSuncor Energy Inc.

Woodrow Wilson ForumOctober 17, 2005Washington DC

Page 2: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Legal Notice This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements, including statements about Suncor's

growth strategy and expected and future production, operating and financial results that are based on Suncor's current expectations and assumptions. The forward-looking statements, identified by words such as “vision”, “goal”, “targets”, “estimates”, “plans” and “objectives”, are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially as a result of risks, uncertainties and other factors, such as changes in general economic, market, regulatory and business conditions; fluctuations in commodity prices and currency exchange rates; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects; the accuracy of cost estimates and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans, among others. See Suncor's current Annual Report and other documents Suncor files with securities regulatory authorities for further details, copies of which are available from the company. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and Suncor undertakes no duty to update these statements to reflect subsequent changes in assumptions (or the trends or factors underlying them) or actual events or experience.

Unless noted otherwise, financial information is for the most recent quarter or year end.

A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas: one barrel of crude oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Accordingly, boe’s may be misleading if used in isolation.

Page 3: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Suncor Energy at a Glance Integrated energy company with more than

4,500 employees Crude oil production capacity of 260,000

barrels/day Refining capacity of 160,000 barrels/day Market capitalization about US$24 billion

Page 4: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington
Page 5: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

ExxonMobil

Petrobras Chevron BP Total RD Shell ConocoPhillips

Suncor

proved resources

All company data, except Suncor, is based on 2003 year-end proved reserves. Under U.S. reporting requirements, companies cannot disclose resources. Accordingly, Suncor’s reserve and resource estimate will not be comparable to those made by U.S. companies. Source: Oil and Gas Journal

11 billion barrels reserves and

resourcesResources

Page 6: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Comparative Advantages No exploration costs High recovery rates Competitive fiscal regimes Secure connection to

North American markets

Page 7: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Suncor Oil Sands Production Growth

94 123

206 217 227260

350

500

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2008* 2010 to2012*

Thousands of barrels per day

*Production capacity targets **Includes in-situ bitumen production

**

Page 8: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Challenges Costs – operating, capital and labor Environmental impacts Pipeline capacity Refinery capability

Page 9: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Operating costs Industry average about US$20 for upgraded

product Constant cost pressure Natural gas a major cost component risk

Page 10: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Capital Costs US$35 billion planned in next five years Industry working to manage project costs and

infrastructure impacts Peak labor force of 25,000

Page 11: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Environmental Issues Must manage impacts to air land and water Collaboration is key Progress is being made

Page 12: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Cushing

Fort McMurray

Montreal

Toronto

Gretna

Regina

Hardisty

Kerrobert

Catlettsburg

Casper

Clearbrook

Superior

Salt Lake CitySinclair

Cheyenne

DenverMcPherson

Ponca CityTulsa

El DoradoCoffeyville

ArdmoreMemphis

Billings

Great Falls

Toledo

Canton

Detroit

Chicago

Corpus Christi

HoustonPort Arthur

New Orleans

Lake CharlesTexas CityFreeport

Puget Sound

San Francisco

Bakersfield

Los Angeles

Borger/SunrayArtesia

El Paso Big Spring

Buffalo

VancouverEdmonton

Wood River Patoka

Robinson

Lima

St. Paul

Mandan

Cromer

Canadian Supplied

Not Canadian SuppliedSource: Enbridge, Terasen, ExxonMobil

Pipeline Access

Page 13: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Refinery Capability: Heavy/Sour Crudes Processed in the U.S.

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Feb'05

Apr'05

% S

ulp

hu

r

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

AP

I

Sulfur

API Gravity

Average API is going down as more Canadian crude is heading to the US

Source: EIA, January 2005

% of Sulphur has been increasing from 0.9% to 1.5

Page 14: Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike Ashar Executive Vice President Suncor Energy Inc. Woodrow Wilson Forum October 17, 2005 Washington

Canada’s Oil Sands: Challenges and Opportunities Mike AsharExecutive Vice PresidentSuncor Energy Inc.

Woodrow Wilson ForumOctober 17, 2005Washington DC