CanadaCanada’’ssGun Registry:Gun Registry:

Should it be Scrapped? Or can itShould it be Scrapped? Or can itbe Fixed?be Fixed?

Fraser Institute Policy BriefingFraser Institute Policy Briefing

January 22, 2004January 22, 2004

Gary MauserGary MauserProfessorProfessor

Canadian Institute for Urban Research StudiesCanadian Institute for Urban Research Studies

Faculty of Business AdministrationFaculty of Business Administration

Simon Fraser UniversitySimon Fraser University

Some promises:Some promises:

ÿÿ ““The goal of the new regulations is The goal of the new regulations is …… to help to helpkeep Canada safekeep Canada safe…… [and]to prevent violence. [and]to prevent violence.””ll Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996

ÿÿ ““..the Firearms Program is..the Firearms Program is improv improv((inging) public) publicsafety in Canada.safety in Canada.””ll MartinMartin Cauchon Cauchon, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002

ÿÿ ““The goal of the (firearms) program is toThe goal of the (firearms) program is toprotect Canadians from violenceprotect Canadians from violence…”…”ll Public Safety Minister Anne Public Safety Minister Anne McLellanMcLellan, Jan. 2004, Jan. 2004

Homicides Since 1995Homicides Since 1995

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Freq

uenc

ies

total homicideshomicides w/firearmshomicides w/handguns

AGAG’’s Minimum Estimateds Minimum EstimatedCostCost

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

Original Estimate Department of Justice

Why so much?Why so much?

ÿÿ There were There were ‘‘virtually no recordsvirtually no records’’,,ll Auditor GeneralAuditor General

ÿÿ Back door financingBack door financing

ÿÿ Secrecy breeds unaccountabilitySecrecy breeds unaccountability

ÿÿ RCMP is now investigatingRCMP is now investigating

Limitations of the AGLimitations of the AG’’s Reports Report

ÿÿ ““We stopped our audit when an initialWe stopped our audit when an initialreview indicated that there were significantreview indicated that there were significantshortcomings in the information provided.shortcomings in the information provided.We concluded that the information doesWe concluded that the information doesnot fairly represent the cost of the programnot fairly represent the cost of the programto government.to government.””ll Auditor General Sheila Fraser, Dec. 2002Auditor General Sheila Fraser, Dec. 2002

What about PartnersWhat about Partners’’ Costs? Costs?Another 1.5 BillionAnother 1.5 Billion

$ -

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

Department of Justice Cooperating Departments, Agencies, Provinces andTerritories

Total Costs as of 2004Total Costs as of 2004

ÿÿ 1 billion for Department of Justice1 billion for Department of Justice[minimum][minimum]

ÿÿ 1.5 billion for cooperating Agencies and1.5 billion for cooperating Agencies andProvinces and Territories [estimate]Provinces and Territories [estimate]

ÿÿ Gun owners have paid more than $550Gun owners have paid more than $550million to comply with regulationsmillion to comply with regulations

Another Billion forAnother Billion forEnforcementEnforcement

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

Department of Justice Cooperating Departments, Agencies,Provinces and Territories

Enforcement

How Much More Will it Cost?How Much More Will it Cost?

ÿÿ Another 1 Billion for EnforcementAnother 1 Billion for Enforcement

ÿÿ It is unknown how much it will cost toIt is unknown how much it will cost tocomplete owner complete owner licencing licencing and firearmand firearmregistrationregistration

The RCMP Lacks ConfidenceThe RCMP Lacks Confidencein the Registryin the Registry

ÿÿ 19 breaches of CPIC19 breaches of CPICÿÿ People known to have violent records may havePeople known to have violent records may have

been issued a firearm been issued a firearm licencelicenceÿÿ CFC stopped checking applicants in order toCFC stopped checking applicants in order to

save moneysave moneyÿÿ 4,438 stolen firearms successfully re-registered4,438 stolen firearms successfully re-registeredÿÿ Attempts to trace 101,000 stolen firearms foundAttempts to trace 101,000 stolen firearms found

250,000 matching serial numbers250,000 matching serial numbers

Are We Safer?Are We Safer?

ÿÿ Total homicides have gone from 588 inTotal homicides have gone from 588 in1995 to 582 in 20021995 to 582 in 2002

ÿÿ Domestic homicides have increased fromDomestic homicides have increased from177 in 1995 to 182 in 2002177 in 1995 to 182 in 2002

ÿÿ Firearm homicides have decreased fromFirearm homicides have decreased from176 in 1995 to 149 in 2002176 in 1995 to 149 in 2002

ÿÿ Handgun homicides have gone from 95 inHandgun homicides have gone from 95 in1995 to 98 in 20021995 to 98 in 2002

What do the Police Think?What do the Police Think?

ÿÿ ““The difficulty of course is that we havenThe difficulty of course is that we haven’’t yett yetcome across any situation where the guncome across any situation where the gunregistry would have enabled us to either preventregistry would have enabled us to either preventor solve any of these crimes.or solve any of these crimes.””ll Toronto Police Chief Julian Toronto Police Chief Julian Fantino Fantino (Jan 6, 2003)(Jan 6, 2003)

ÿÿ “…“… we need more police officers. This we need more police officers. This isis not notrocket science.rocket science.””ll Vancouver Police Chief Jamie Graham (Jan. 22,Vancouver Police Chief Jamie Graham (Jan. 22,

2004).2004).

Homicide Rates DecliningHomicide Rates DecliningFaster in the United StatesFaster in the United States

Homicide Rates in Canada and the United States

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Sources: Firearm Stats, DOJ, 2000; FBI, Index of Crime, 2003

Ca

na

da

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Un

ite

d S

tate

s p

er

10

0,0

00

p

op

ula

tio

n

CDNUS

Violent Crime Growing inViolent Crime Growing inCanadaCanada

Violent Crime Rates in Canada and the United States

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002

Off

ence

s pe

r 100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

CDNUS

Suicide Rate Higher inSuicide Rate Higher inCanadaCanada

Comparing Canadian and US Suicide Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: US: National DHHS; Canada: Stats Can

Tota

l sui

cide

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

USACanada

Firearm Deaths Decline, ButFirearm Deaths Decline, ButTotal Suicides StableTotal Suicides Stable

Firearms and Suicide in Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Year

To

tal

Su

icid

e R

ate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0

po

pu

lati

on

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Fir

ea

rm S

uic

ide

Ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

p

op

ula

tio

n

Total Suicide RateFirearm Suicide Rate

Lack of Public SupportLack of Public Support

ÿÿ 5 provinces and all 3 territories refuse to5 provinces and all 3 territories refuse toadminister the firearms programadminister the firearms program

ÿÿ 8 provinces refuse to enforce the act8 provinces refuse to enforce the act

ÿÿ Half of owners refuse to get a Half of owners refuse to get a licencelicence

ÿÿ Half of all firearms are registeredHalf of all firearms are registered

ÿÿ Ten percent of Native Canadians have aTen percent of Native Canadians have afirearm firearm licencelicence

Firearms Act Does NotFirearms Act Does NotAim at CriminalsAim at Criminals

ÿÿ Law-abiding firearm owners are required toLaw-abiding firearm owners are required toreport change of address within 30 days or risk areport change of address within 30 days or risk atwo-year jail sentencetwo-year jail sentence

ÿÿ The Firearms Act does NOT require theThe Firearms Act does NOT require thefollowing classes to report a change of address:following classes to report a change of address:

ÿÿ 131,000 convicted criminals who have been131,000 convicted criminals who have beenprohibited from owing firearmsprohibited from owing firearms

ÿÿ 36,000 persons with active restraining orders36,000 persons with active restraining ordersÿÿ 9,000 persons with refused/revoked firearm9,000 persons with refused/revoked firearm

licenceslicences

The Firearms Act is Off TargetThe Firearms Act is Off Target

ÿÿ Licencing Licencing and registration is misdirectedand registration is misdirected

ÿÿ Normal people do not commit violentNormal people do not commit violentcrimescrimes

The Firearms Act is Off TargetThe Firearms Act is Off Target

ÿÿ Two-thirds of those accused of murderTwo-thirds of those accused of murderhad a criminal recordhad a criminal record

ÿÿ 73% of those had a previous conviction for73% of those had a previous conviction fora violent offence (and 8 for murder)a violent offence (and 8 for murder)

ÿÿ Over half of murder victims had a criminalOver half of murder victims had a criminalrecordrecord

ÿÿ In Vancouver, 6 robbers commit 43% ofIn Vancouver, 6 robbers commit 43% ofbank robberies bank robberies (Van Sun, Jan 22, 2004)(Van Sun, Jan 22, 2004)

ConclusionsConclusions

ÿÿ Should scrap the firearm registryShould scrap the firearm registry

ÿÿ Licencing Licencing and registration are off targetand registration are off target

ÿÿ Should focus on violent criminalsShould focus on violent criminals

Should Target ViolentShould Target ViolentCriminals Criminals

ÿÿ Longer prison terms for violent offendersLonger prison terms for violent offenders

ÿÿMonitor parolees more thoroughlyMonitor parolees more thoroughly

ÿÿMonitor violent offenders who have beenMonitor violent offenders who have beenordered deportedordered deported

ÿÿ Reinstate the Ports PoliceReinstate the Ports Police

ÿÿ Screen incoming mail more thoroughlyScreen incoming mail more thoroughly

Property Crime Higher inProperty Crime Higher inCanadaCanada

Property Crime in Canada and the United States

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002

Off

ence

s pe

r 100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

CDNUS

Are Gun OwnersAre Gun OwnersCooperating?Cooperating?

Cooperation of Canadian Gun Owners

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CFC (2004) DOJ (1998) 4 M estimate 5 M estimate

How many gun owners are there?

Native Canadians are NotNative Canadians are NotCooperatingCooperatingNative and Non-Native Cooperation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

4 M estimate 5 M estimate Natives