20
REFERENCE CODE GDPE0785ICR | PUBLICATION DATE JUNE 2015 CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

REFERENCE CODE GDPE0785ICR | PUBLICATION DATE JUNE 2015

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,

AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Page 2: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Executive Summary

Canada’s Power Sector Outlook

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate

(CAGR) of XX% during the 2000–2014 period,

despite average annual growth of XX% until 2008.

The global recession in 2009 triggered negative

growth of XX%, but renewed exports and domestic

demand caused a resurgence of XX% in 2010.

Average annual growth between 2011 and 2014

was XX%. Trends in power consumption, led by

the manufacturing and mining sector, largely

mirrored GDP.

Power Market, Canada, Gross Domestic Product ($tr) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GD

P ($

tr)

GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2014

Annual power consumption grew at a CAGR of

XX% from XX Terawatt hours (TWh) in 2000 to XX

TWh in 2014, driven by rising demand in the

manufacturing and mining sectors and increased

use in the residential sector. However,

government-sponsored energy-efficiency programs

controlled the latter, which resulted in a low CAGR

of XX% from XX TWh to XX TWh.

Power Market, Canada, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2014

2000 2007 2014

Annu

al p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n an

d ge

nera

tion

(TW

h)

Annual power consumption Annual power generation

Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 8, 2015]

Renewable power remains one of the fastest

growing areas of the power sector. Between 2000

and 2014, capacity grew at a CAGR of XX% while

generation grew at a CAGR of XX%: both higher

than the rates for thermal power, hydropower, and

nuclear power. Renewable power technologies

went from representing only XX% of capacity in

2000 to representing XX% in 2014, as shown in

the following figure.

Page 3: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 4 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 8

1.2 List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 10

2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 11

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ............................................................................................ 12

3 Canada Power Market, Snapshot ............................................................................................. 13

3.1 Macro-economic Factors ................................................................................................... 13

3.2 Supply Security ................................................................................................................. 15

3.3 Opportunities .................................................................................................................... 16

3.4 Challenges ........................................................................................................................ 16

4 Canada, Power Market, Market Analysis .................................................................................. 17

4.1 Canada, Power Market, Supply Structure ......................................................................... 17

4.1.1 Federal Regulatory Authorities ...................................................................................... 17

4.1.2 Provincial and Territorial Authorities .............................................................................. 17

4.2 Canada, Power Market, Key Market Players ..................................................................... 19

4.3 Canada, Power Market, Financial Deals ........................................................................... 20

4.3.1 Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004–April 2015 ....................................................... 20

4.3.2 Deals by Type, 2014 ..................................................................................................... 22

4.4 Canada, Power Market, Demand Structure ....................................................................... 23

4.4.1 Consumption by Sector, 2014 ....................................................................................... 25

5 Canada, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario ........................................................................... 26

Page 4: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 5 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

5.1 Canada, Power Market, Key Electricity Policies ................................................................ 26

5.1.1 Federal Energy Policy – Key Elements.......................................................................... 26

5.1.2 ecoEnergy for Renewable Power .................................................................................. 26

5.1.3 ecoEnergy Innovation Initiative ...................................................................................... 27

5.1.4 Clean Energy Fund Program ......................................................................................... 27

5.1.5 Renewable Fuels Regulations ....................................................................................... 27

5.1.6 Feed-in Tariff ................................................................................................................. 28

6 Canada Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview...................................................... 29

6.1 Canada, Power Market, Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014 ........................................ 29

6.2 Canada, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation,

2000–2025 ........................................................................................................................ 30

6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–

2025 ............................................................................................................................. 33

6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–

2025 ............................................................................................................................. 37

6.2.3 Cumulative Installed Nuclear Capacity and Annual Nuclear Power Generation, 2000–

2025 ............................................................................................................................. 41

6.2.4 Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation,

2000–2025 ................................................................................................................... 45

7 Canada, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview ............................................. 49

7.1 Canada, Power Market, Transmission Overview ............................................................... 49

7.2 Canada, Power Market, Distribution Overview .................................................................. 50

7.3 Canada, Power Market, Grid Interconnection .................................................................... 50

7.3.1 Electricity Import and Export Trends, 2000–2014 .......................................................... 50

Page 5: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 6 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

7.4 Canada, Power Market, Electricity Trading ....................................................................... 52

8 Canada, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating

Companies ............................................................................................................................... 53

8.1 Key Company in the Canadian Power Market: Hydro-Quebec .......................................... 53

8.1.1 Hydro-Quebec, Company Overview .............................................................................. 53

8.1.2 Hydro-Quebec, Business Description ............................................................................ 53

8.1.3 Hydro-Quebec, SWOT Analysis .................................................................................... 54

8.2 Key Company in the Canadian Power Market: Ontario Power Generation Inc. ................. 57

8.2.1 Ontario Power Generation Inc., Company Overview ..................................................... 57

8.2.2 Ontario Power Generation Inc., Business Description ................................................... 57

8.2.3 Ontario Power Generation Inc., SWOT Analysis ........................................................... 58

8.3 Key Company in the Canadian Power Market: BC Hydro .................................................. 61

8.3.1 BC Hydro, Company Overview ...................................................................................... 61

8.3.2 BC Hydro, Business Description.................................................................................... 62

8.3.3 BC Hydro, SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................ 62

8.4 Key Company in the Canadian Power Market: TransAlta Corporation .............................. 65

8.4.1 TransAlta Corporation, Company Overview .................................................................. 65

8.4.2 TransAlta Corporation, Business Description ................................................................ 66

8.4.3 TransAlta Corporation, SWOT Analysis......................................................................... 66

8.5 Key Company in the Canadian Power Market: Manitoba Hydro ........................................ 70

8.5.1 Manitoba Hydro, Company Overview ............................................................................ 70

8.5.2 Manitoba Hydro, Business Description .......................................................................... 70

8.5.3 Manitoba Hydro, SWOT Analysis .................................................................................. 71

Page 6: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 7 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 74

9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................. 74

9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................ 74

9.1.2 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 74

9.1.3 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................... 74

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................................. 74

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant ..................................................................................................... 74

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant .......................................................................................................... 74

9.1.7 Nuclear Power............................................................................................................... 74

9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................... 75

9.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 76

9.3 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 77

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology ................................................................................................ 77

9.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 78

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis ................................................................................ 78

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis..................................................................................... 79

9.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 79

Page 7: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 8 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Canada, Gross Domestic Product ($tr), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 15

Table 2: Power Market, Canada, Key Regulatory Authorities, by Province and Territory ............................ 18

Table 3: Power Market, Canada, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 ........ 19

Table 4: Power Market, Canada, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–April 2015 ....................... 21

Table 5: Power Market, Canada, Deals by Type (%), 2014 ........................................................................ 22

Table 6: Power Market, Canada, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ..................................... 24

Table 7: Power Market, Canada, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................... 25

Table 8: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................... 29

Table 9: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh),

2000–2025 .................................................................................................................................. 32

Table 10: Power Market, Canada, Leading Thermal Power Plants, 2015 ..................................................... 34

Table 11: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 36

Table 12: Power Market, Canada, Leading Hydropower Plants, 2015.......................................................... 38

Table 13: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 40

Table 14: Power Market, Canada, Leading Nuclear Power Reactors, 2015 ................................................. 42

Table 15: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Capacity (GW) and Annual Nuclear Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 44

Table 16: Power Market, Canada, Leading Renewable Power Plants (MW), 2015 ....................................... 46

Table 17: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (GW) and Annual Renewable

Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 48

Table 18: Power Market, Canada, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ........................................ 49

Table 19: Power Market, Canada, Annual Electricity Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2014 ..................... 52

Page 8: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 9 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Table 20: Power Market, Canada, Hydro-Quebec, SWOT Analysis, 2015 ................................................... 54

Table 21: Power Market, Canada, Ontario Power Generation Inc., SWOT Analysis, 2014 ........................... 59

Table 22: Power Market, Canada, BC Hydro, SWOT Analysis, 2014 ........................................................... 63

Table 23: Power Market, Canada, TransAlta Corporation, SWOT Analysis, 2015 ........................................ 67

Table 24: Power Market, Canada, Manitoba Hydro, SWOT Analysis, 2014 ................................................. 71

Table 25: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 76

Page 9: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 10 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Table of Contents

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Canada, Gross Domestic Product ($tr), Population (million) and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 14

Figure 2: Power Market, Canada, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 ........ 19

Figure 3: Power Market, Canada, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–April 2015 ....................... 20

Figure 4: Power Market, Canada, Deals by Type (%), 2014 ........................................................................ 22

Figure 5: Power Market, Canada, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 ..................................... 23

Figure 6: Power Market, Canada, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................... 25

Figure 7: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................... 29

Figure 8: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh),

2000–2025 .................................................................................................................................. 31

Figure 9: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 35

Figure 10: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 39

Figure 11: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Capacity (GW) and Annual Nuclear Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 43

Figure 12: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (GW) and Annual Renewable

Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 47

Figure 13: Power Market, Canada, Annual Electricity Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2014 ..................... 51

Page 10: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 11 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Introduction

2 Introduction

Canada is a developed country with an economy that is primarily dependent upon its

manufacturing, mining, and service sectors. It has shifted over the last century from a largely rural

economy into one that is largely industrial and urban. In 2014, the service sector accounted for

XX% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), followed by the industrial sector with XX% and the

agricultural sector with XX% (CIA, 2014). Canada is also a significant exporter of raw goods, which

is rare for a developed country. It exports motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft,

telecommunications equipment, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, wood pulp, timber, crude petroleum,

natural gas, electricity, and aluminum. Its major export partners are the US and the UK. The 1989

US–Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA) have contributed to its economic integration with the US, which is Canada’s principal

trading partner. Canada is the US’ largest foreign supplier of energy.

Canada is a member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

and the G8 and has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) since January 1,

1995. The WTO is the cornerstone of its trade policy and provides a forum for the advancement of

relations between established and potential global trading partners. Between 2009 and 2010,

Canada registered one of the largest increases, in real terms, in Official Development Assistance

(ODA), a measure through which developed countries promote economic development in

developing countries.

Canada benefited from steady economic growth between 1993 and 2007 but its economy went into

decline in 2008 due to the global economic crisis, recording a GDP drop of XX% in 2009. From

2009, the major banks emerged from the financial crisis due to a tradition of conservative lending

practices and strong capitalization. The economy recovered in 2010, with GDP growing at XX%. In

2011, its GDP growth rate decreased to XX% and was even lower in 2012, at XX%. However,

there was a slight improvement in 2013, with growth of XX% and a still higher XX% recorded in

2014 (IMF, 2014).

The petroleum sector is rapidly becoming a major economic driver, driven by increasing exports of

energy and energy-related products, including oil, gas, electricity, and petroleum.

Page 11: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 12 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Introduction

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) is the ministry responsible for the development of policies and

programs related to natural resources, energy, minerals, metals, forests, earth sciences, mapping,

and remote sensing. The National Energy Board (NEB) and the Canadian Nuclear Safety

Commission (CNSC) are independent regulators, and the Canadian Electricity Association (CEA) is

a national forum for electricity business. Electric utilities that are involved in the generation and

Transmission and Distribution (T&D) of electricity are members of CEA.

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance

The executive summary captures the key growth trends in the Canadian power market.

Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that affect Canada’s power sector, as

well as key points about the power market.

Chapter four provides analysis of Canada’s power market, including the market shares of the

leading power generation companies, ratio analysis of the leading power utilities, and analysis

of electricity consumption.

Chapter five details the regulatory structure of the power market and the inward foreign

investment scenario.

Chapter six provides information on Canada’s cumulative installed capacity and annual

generation trends by individual generation source.

Chapter seven describes the power T&D infrastructure and provides information on

interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers electricity imports and

exports and upcoming grid-related projects.

Note: From 2014, the report provides actual or estimated data depending on availability at the time

of writing.

Page 12: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 13 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Snapshot

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

3 Canada Power Market, Snapshot

3.1 Macro-economic Factors

Canada’s GDP (at constant prices) grew from $XX trillion in 2000 to $XX trillion in 2013 at a

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. As with most industrialized countries that have

integrated their economy into the larger global economy, GDP declined sharply in 2009 at a CAGR

of XX%, from $XX trillion in 2008 to $XX trillion in 2009. The average CAGR during this period was

XX%, and is forecast to be lower at XX% between 2015 and 2019.

The population grew from XX million in 2000 to XX million in 2014 at a CAGR of XX%, and is

expected to grow at the same CAGR to XX million by 2019.

Positive economic and population growth has led to a rise in electricity consumption, from XX

Terawatt hours (TWh) in 2000 to XX TWh in 2014 at a CAGR of XX%. It is expected to grow at a

CAGR of XX% between 2015 and 2019 due to the resumption of economic growth.

Page 13: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 14 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Snapshot

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Figure 1: Power Market, Canada, Gross Domestic Product ($tr), Population (million) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ion)

and

ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GD

P ($

tr)

GDP (constant prices) Population Annual power consumption

Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2014

Page 14: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 19 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Market Analysis

4.2 Canada, Power Market, Key Market Players

Hydro-Québec was the largest power generation company in 2014, constituting an estimated XX%

of the total installed capacity. Ontario Power Generation (Ontario Power) was the second-largest

power generation company with XX%, followed by BC Hydro with XX%, TransAlta with XX%, and

Manitoba Hydro with XX%. Other smaller producers made up the remaining XX%.

Figure 2: Power Market, Canada, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2014

Hydro-Québec

Ontario Power

BC Hydro

TransAltaManitoba Hydro

Other

Source: GlobalData

Table 3: Power Market, Canada, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 Company Share

Hydro-Québec

Ontario Power Generation

BC Hydro

TransAlta

Manitoba Hydro

Other

Source: GlobalData

Page 15: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 74 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9 Appendix

9.1 Market Definitions

9.1.1 Power

Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is

measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known

as real power or active power.

9.1.2 Installed Capacity

Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer, or

the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on

a nameplate affixed to the generator.

9.1.3 Electricity Generation

Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It

also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption

Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and

Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant

A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant

A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.

9.1.7 Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.

Page 16: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 75 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited

in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydropower

and wind are examples of renewable resources.

Page 17: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 76 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9.2 Abbreviations

Table 25: Abbreviations AECB Atomic Energy Control Board

AESO Alberta Electric System Operator

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine

CEA Canadian Electricity Association

Ckm Circuit kilometer

CNSC Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission

Cogen Cogeneration

DC Direct Current

ecoEII ecoEnergy Innovation Initiative

FiT Feed-in Tariff

FTA Free Trade Agreement

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GW Gigawatt

GWh Gigawatt hour

IESO Independent Electric System Operator

kV kilovolt

MW Megawatt

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

NEB National Energy Board

NGX Natural Gas Exchange

NRCan Natural Resources Canada

ODA Official Development Assistance

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PHWR Pressurized Heavy-Water Reactor

PV Photovoltaic

T&D Transmission and Distribution

TWh Terawatt hour

WTO World Trade Organization

Source: GlobalData

Page 18: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 77 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9.3 Bibliography

BP Statistics, 2014. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 [database]. Available

from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/Energy-Economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-

Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014_workbook.xlsx [Accessed on May 6, 2015].

CIA (2015). Canada – The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency, May 01, 2015.

Available from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ca.html

[Accessed on May 6, 2015].

IMF (2014). World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014 [database]. International

Monetary Fund. Available from:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx [Accessed on May 6,

2015].

NRCan (2014). ecoENERGY for Renewable Power. Natural Resources Canada, January 8,

2014. Available from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/ecoaction/14145 [Accessed on May 5, 2015].

WNA (2014). Nuclear Power in Canada. World Nuclear Association. Available from:

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/Canada--Nuclear-Power/

[Accessed on May 6, 2015].

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with

advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the

energy industry.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All of GlobalData’s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology

has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report.

Page 19: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 78 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9.4.1 Coverage

This report covers the Canadian power market, examining the market structure and providing

historical generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until 2025. It also looks at the market’s

regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and

upcoming power projects.

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis

The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of

secondary resources including but not limited to:

Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and

statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor

presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

GlobalData’s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power

Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project Canada’s

power market scenario to 2025, analyzing factors such as:

Macroeconomic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets

Government and private sector investment

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historical track record

Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,

annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry

associations

Page 20: CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – … · CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, ... 6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal

Canada Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 79 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

Appendix

CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis

Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants

to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand

information on industry trends.

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers,

equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and

academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants,

academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant

managers, government officials and industry spokespersons.

9.5 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.