Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013

7/28/2019 Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013

1/23

Research Team

Alan Kolata and Sabina Shaikh,University of Chicago

John Felkner, Florida State UniversityMike Binford, University of FloridaMatti Kummu, Aalto UniversityPartners:

Natural Capital Team, Stanford UniversityWinemiller Aquatic Ecology Lab, Texas A&M

University

Center for Khmer Studies, Cambodia


2/23

Study Region

Watershed of MekongRiver Basin and TonleSap lake

Ecological hotspotFlood-pulse systemNatural resources of lake

support over 1 million

livelihoods


3/23

Mekong Flood-Pulse System

Tonle Sap-Mekong connection is acoherent hydrological unit

Flow regime provides a way of lifefor a million people

Flood-recession rice cultivation inthe Mekong and Tonle Sap floodplains, and highly productive lake

fisheries exploit this hydrological

seasonality Predictability and reliability is

important but changing mostly dueto dams


4/23

Larger Project Research Questions

Team is currently developing researchto address the following:

1. What are the likely future land-use and climatescenarios for the region and how will the hydrological

system be affected?2. What is the relationship between the hydrological

system and the generation of ecosystem services forsustainable agricultural production?

3. How do humans depend on and respond tochanges in ecosystem services in the region?

4. What are the tradeoffs associated with alternativechoices for water sustainability?


5/23

Causes of Ecosystem ChangeHydropower Construction, Land Use, Climate Change, Other

Changes in Ecosystem Function

Hydrology, Flood Pulse

Changes in Ecosystem Services:Water Supply, Water Regulation, Water Quality

Biological Diversity, Habitat, Nutrient, Sediment RetentionSoil Retention, Disturbance Prevention

Waste Treatment

Benefits to Humans:Drainage/Natural Irrigation, Provision of Water for Consumptive Use

Fishery Production Maintenance of Arable LandCrop Production, Land-Water Connectivity

Erosion Control, Flood ControlCultural/Recreation Opportunity

Human ResponseFishing Effort, Farming Effort

Agricultural Inputs. Crop Composition

Labor Inputs, Household BehaviorFinancial Assistance


6/23

Current Research Understand the current household composition anddependency on the water system Analysis of Household and Soil Survey Data collected by

Binford, Kolata, Townsend team in 2005/6

3 SurveysHousehold

(2005)

Key Informant(2005)

Soil (2006)


7/23


8/23

Characteristics by Province

UsingCombined

HH plot

Data

Battambang KampongTHom

Siem Reap OtdorMeanchy

Non-rice

Farmer

208 129 78 55

Rice farmer 170 362 459 528

Percentage ofRice Farmers

45% 74% 85% 91%

Percentages may be overstated as this is just drawn from

representative sample of people with plots

Even more oversampled in Soil Survey


9/23

Rice Farming Incomes

Battambang KampongThom

Siem Reap OtdorMeanchy

Mean income $6,600,000 $6,100,000 $4,200,000 $4,300,000

TotalObservations

378 491 537 583

Mean RiceFarmer

Income

$6,300,000 $4,600,000 $3,800,000 $4,100,000

Rice FarmerObservations

170 362 459 528


10/23

How important is water access in DrySeason?

Obs Mean

Income

Average effect on log

income

No wateraccess

1969 $5,062,070

Water access 448 $7,225,494 .1792 (p-value < 0.0001)

As drought is the most frequent reason for incomeloss, water access is incredibly important


11/23

Log-income plot of water access

Both follow approximately normal distributions Peaks of income distributions significantly different for water access

0

.2

.4

.6

Density

12 14 16 18 20logincome

No Water Access

Water Access

kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.1497

Kernel density estimate


12/23

Data from Soil SurveyCombinedwith HH plot dataLower-resolution because only 533 data

points

Mainly draw ecological characteristics10% correlation between being by river

and water access


13/23

Effects of being by a river

Observations Mean Income Mean plot Value Mean Effect onLog Income

By River 170 $6,877,401 $4,379,226 .135 (p


14/23

Chemical Fertilizer

Chemical Fertilizer Usage has been risingsince the time of the survey

Regressed on Fertilizer usage and wateraccess

Log(Income)i= 14.97 [p


15/23

Overall Determination of Income

Log Income = 12.76*** -

0.399 {Rice Farmer}*** +

0 .109 { Water Access}** +

0.139 {Log(Land Value)}*** +

0.0007 {Plot Size}*** +

0.0827 {amount of Chemical Fertilizer}*** +

0.118 {Number of plots}***

R-squared: 24.5%

*** denotes significance at 0.001 level** denotes significance at 0.01 level


16/23

Natural Disasters (Key Informant Survey)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

DROUGHT FLOOD STORM CROP

DISEASE

FREQU

ENCY

TYPE OF DISASTER

Number of Natural Disasters By

Type of Disaster

BATTAMBANG

KAMPONG THOM

SIEM REAP

OTDOR MEANCHEY

Province Number ofNatural

Disasters

Percent ofTotal

KampongThom

51 37%

OtdorMeanchey

33 24%

Battambang 29 21%

Siem Reap 24 18%


17/23

Different types of acquisitions of plothave different susceptibility to natural

disasters Inherited plots significantly likely to lose income

because of drought

Plots acquired through Land Reform Programs likelyto lose income because of flood

Plots that are purchased not significantly likely to loseincome from any natural disaster


18/23

Investigating flood susceptibility inKampong ThomKampong Thom has significantly higher

rate of income loss by flooding

Battambang Kampong

Thom

Siem Reap Otdor

Meanchy

Income loss byFlood

13 78 23 7

Income Lossby Drought

116 87 132 203

Plot floodOften?

30 83 38 21

Percentage ofplots that flood

often

26% 55% 28% 16%


19/23

Land Reform

Land reform law in 2001 Intention was to redistribute land to villagers

engaged in agriculture

Sub-decree in 2005 to grant more land toindustrial and commercial landMany industrial gangs abusing system resulting

in land grab


20/23

Land reform impacts

On average, land reform program increased likelihood ofwater access from 17% to 26% (coefficient 0.303, p-

value


21/23

Inherited Land

Affects log-income negativelyat -.278[p


22/23

Next (small) steps

Take into account financial data and assetsCombine with key informant surveySpatial analysis using ArcGIS


23/23

Next (large) Steps

Further analysis of existing data plus datafrom external sources

Team will begin physical/natural ecosystemmodeling

Team will set up sites for further socialscience research through surveys andexperiments

Team will integrate physical/natural/socialscience models for a more holistic view ofchange, response and adaptation

Documents

Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013