1

California Water PlanUpdate 2003

& Beyond

California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum

Annual Meeting

February 25, 2004

2

Talk Overview

• Part 1 - Preparing the Plan

• Part 2 - Developing a New Analytical Framework for the California Water Plan

• Discussion– Anatomy of Models– CWEMF Role with Long Term Framework

3

Part 1 – Preparing the Plan

• Water Plan Update Overview & Process

• New Planning Framework

• Limitations & Phased Work Plan

• Content & Document Organization

• Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d Actions

4

Water Plan Overview

• Program 10 > 1 of 6 DWR Goals• Required by law (Water Code)• First Water Plan -Bulletin 3 (1957)• Seven Updates (Bulletin 160)• Update every five years

– Last in 1998 Next in 2003

• State’s Master or Strategic Plan

5

California Water Plan• Purpose

– Strategic plan for state policy/decision makers– Guide for managing & developing CA water– Framework for investing public funds

• Content– Basic information - water resources & system– Current water supplies and uses– Scenarios for future supplies and use– Recommendations (Strategies & State Role)

• Footnotes– No mandates; No spending authorizations– Not project or site specific; No CEQA

6

Water Plan Update 2003DWR Goals & Approach

• Goals– Meet Water Code requirements– Expand public input– Develop a “useful” plan

• Approach– Open & transparent public process– Seek collaborative recommendations– Strategic Planning model; New framework

7

www.waterplan.water.ca.gov

8

New Planning Framework

• 65-member Public Advisory Committee

• Water Portfolios using 1998, 2000, 2001 data

• Regional Reports reflecting regional challenges, goals, and planning efforts

• Multiple Scenarios to identify and plan for future uncertainties and risks

• Many Strategies to meet future water demands while sustaining our resources and economy

9

10

Issues & Challenges

• Significant data and information gaps

• Analytical tools for long-range planning

are not fully developed

• Revising process impacted schedule

• Reduced DWR staff & budget

11

Phased Work Plan• June 2004

– Public Review Draft of Water Plan Update

– Narratives of four 2030 Future Scenarios

– Short & Long-term Work Plan for Data & Tools

• December 2004

– Public Comment & Release Final Update

– Select methods to quantify 2030 Scenarios

• 2005 (Begins Update 2008)

– Conduct Quantitative Studies for 2030 Scenarios

12

Five Volumes of Update• Vol. 1 – Strategic Plan

– Findings, Recommendations & Implementation

• Vol. 2 – 25 Resource Mgmt Strategies

• Vol. 3 – 12 Regional Reports– 10 Hydrologic Regions, Mt. Counties & Delta

• Vol. 4 – Reference Guide– Supplemental articles

• Vol. 5 – Technical Guide (Electronic Only)– Documentation for data, methods & tools

13

Volume 1 – Strategic Plan• Foreword & Users Guide

• Executive Summary

• Findings & Recommended Actions

• Ch 1 – Plan Overview

• Ch 2 – CA Water Today (Statewide View)

• Ch 3 – Planning for an Uncertain Future

• Ch 4 – Regional Integrated Resource Plng

• Ch 5 – State Role & Responsibilities

• Ch 6 – Implementation & Finance

14

Volume 2Resource Management Strategies (Definition, Current Level, 2030 Potential & Cost,

Benefits, Issues & Recommendations)

1. Agricultural Use Efficiency2. Conj. Mgmt/GW Storage3. Conveyance4. Desalination5. Drinking Water Treatment &

Distribution6. Economic Incentives Policy7. Ecosystem Restoration8. Floodplain Management9. Groundwater/Aquifer

Remediation10.Matching WQ to Use11.Pollution Prevention12.Precipitation Enhancement

13.Recharge Area Protection14.Recycled Municipal Water15.Surface Storage – Bay-Delta

Program16.Surface Storage –Region/Local17.System Reoperation18.Urban Land Use Management19.Urban Runoff Management20.Urban Water Use Efficiency21.Water-Dependent Recreation22.Water Transfers23.Watershed Management24.Working Lands Management25.Other Strategies (R&D)

15

Volume 3 - Regional ReportsRegional Perspective

• Outline– Setting– Existing “State of the Region”– Looking to the Future

• Featuring– Flow Diagrams, Water Balances for 1998, 2000 &

2001– Water Quality summary– Regional water planning efforts– Examples of water management & restoration

programs

16

17

Water Plan Vision for 2030

California has adequate, reliable

and sustainable water

of suitable quality

for all beneficial uses.

18

Water Plan Goals for 2030 Improved quality of life for projected 53 million Californians. Sustained economic growth, business vitality and agricultural industry. Protected and restored ecosystems. Environmental justice for all Californians. Stronger State leadership, coordination, and oversight and more public

investment. Regions play the central role in integrated water & resource planning. Local and regional planners diversify management strategies. Local govmts and agencies improve coordination of land use planning

with water planning and management. State-supported investigations, and R&D of promising new technologies. Planners make more informed (less risky) decisions. Fewer gaps in data & analytical tools; better access to information.

19

Water Management Objectives • Integrate & optimize management strategies• Provide water supply benefits• Increase drought resiliency• Improve water quality• Increase operational flexibility & efficiency• Improve flood control• Increase energy generation or reduce use• Increase recreation opportunities• Enhance instream, riparian or terrestrial ecosystems• Reduce groundwater overdraft• Reduce pollution• Reduce runoff, drainage or tailwater• Reduce uncertainty & risk

20

Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d• State leadership & oversight for statewide

assessments, protecting public assets; doing what regions can’t do by and for themselves

• State promote & assist regionally-based, integrated, multi-resource planning

• State fill data/tool gaps & support R&D• Regions diversify water portfolios choosing

from 25 resource management strategies• Locals improve coordination of land use

planning with water planning/management

21

3.5 to 6 MAF Additional Demandsfor 2030 Current Trends Scenario

• To maintain QOL for 17 million more Californians– Additional 2 - 3 million acre-feet

• To recover groundwater overdraft– Additional 1 - 2 million acre-feet

• To protect & restore degraded ecosystems– Additional 0.5 – 1 million acre-feet

• To sustain econ growth & agricultural industry– About the same as now

22

DRAFT 1/30/2004

Implementation and Investment Guide to 2030

Implementation and Investment Guide Water Management Objectives

Resource Management

Strategy, Activity or Program

Potential 2030 Supply

Benefit million ac-ft

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Draft 2-23-04 Note: Shaded boxes to be filled.

For Discussion Purposes Only

Has not been approved by DWR management or Advisory Committee

1-Page Version

Implementation Ag Lands Stewardship

Ag Use Efficiency 0.2 - 0.5 (a) Conjunctive Mgmt & GW Storage

0.5 - 1.5 (b) 1.3 - ?

Conveyance Desalination (Brackish Water)

0.1 - 0.3 (c) 0.2 - 1.6

Desalination (Ocean Water)

0.2 (c) 0.7 – 1.3

Drinking Water Treatment & Distrib.

Economic Incentives (o) (p) Ecosystem Restoration

Floodplain Mgmt

GW/Aquifer Remediation

Matching Quality to Use

Pollution Prevention

Precip Enhancement 0.3 – 0.4 (j) 0.10 - 0.15

Recharge Area Protect

Recycled Muni Water 0.9 - 1.4 (d) 6.0 - 9.0

Surface Storage 0.4 – 1.0 (l) 2.9 – 5.7

System Reoperation 0.1 – 0.3 (e)

Urban Land Use Mgmnt

Urban Runoff Mgmt

Urban Use Efficiency 1.5 – 2.5 (f)

Water Transfers 0.2 – 1.1 (g)

Water-Dependent Rec Watershed Management

Other Strategies Vary by strategy (see narrative)

Planning, Research & Development , and Pilot Studies to Reduce Uncertainty and Integrate Strategies Regional Integrated Resource Planning & Mgmt

Statewide Water Planning

0.12

Data & Tool Improvement

0.25

Research & Development

Science

Support all objectives and strategies

23

Contact Information

Kamyar Guivetchi, P.E.Manager, Statewide Water Planning

DWR, Planning & Local Assistance

901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento

(916) 653-3937

kamyarg @ water.ca.gov

www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov

24

Part 2Developing a New Analytical

Framework for the CWP• Background and Context• Anatomy of Models• Proposed CWP Framework• Proposed Conceptual Model• Principles for framework• Short Term Approach and Beyond• Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF

25

Last Year at Asilomar …

IWR-MAIN

CALAG

Hydrology 2030

Urban water use

Ag water use

CALSIM

LCPSIM Cost of conservation

SW

P &

CV

P imp

orts

Un

used d

eliveries

SW

P&

CV

P i

mp

orts

26

What has Happened Since?• Advisory committee was not comfortable with

proposed approach– Didn’t fully support or understand some of the

models and modeling – Disagreed with using a single vision of future

conditions

• DWR lacked resources to address problems within schedule

• DWR decided to take a slower, fundamentally different approach rather than disregard feedback

27

Where We Are Now

• State has leadership role in evaluating statewide water management strategies

• Complexity of CWP has increased

• DWR has held numerous public workshops to develop a proposed analytical framework

• Proposal has not been presented to or approved by full Advisory Committee

28

Anatomy of Models(Developed by Ken Kirby)

• Conceptual model

• Theoretical model

• Numerical model

• Data

• Data management

• Software

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Definitions

• Conceptual Model - A description or analogy used to help visualize something that cannot be directly observed

• Theoretical Model - A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a description of an entity or state of affairs

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Definitions

• Numerical Model - An analytical tool that employs quantitative approximations to the solutions of mathematical problems

31

Proposed CWP Framework

Identify Required Information

Develop Conceptual Models

Develop Theoretical Models

Develop Short Term Approach

Conduct Quantitative Analysis for Update 2008

2003 - 2004

2004 - 2006

2005 - 2007

32

Conceptual Model

Water Management SystemWater Management System

Climate Conditions

Climate Conditions

Economic and Performance Indicators

Economic and Performance Indicators

Ag/Urban Demands Ag/Urban Demands

Ecosystem DemandsEcosystem Demands

Ecosystem Wants

Ecosystem Wants

Ag/Urban Wants

Ag/Urban Wants

33

Straw Proposal for Presenting Conceptual Models

Agricultural Water Demands

Urban Water Demands

Required Input

DesiredOutput

Required Input

DesiredOutput

34

Principles for Development and Application of Tools and Data

• Strategy

• Transparency

• Long-Term Viability

• Coverage

• Accountability and Quality Control

35

Short Term Approach

Propose changes to existing tools and data

Develop list of data needs

Modify existing tools and data

Inventory analytical tools using “Anatomy of Models”

Compare theoretical models to existing tools, data and conceptual models

36

Quantitative Analysis for Water Plan Update 2008

Future scenarios

Performance measures

Interpret and describe results

37

Update 2008 and Beyond

• Improve existing tools using conceptual model

• Fill data gaps

• Develop Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE)

38

Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF

• Anatomy of Models and CWP proposed framework

• Detailed inventory of existing tools and data

• Proposed conceptual models, desired output, and required input

• Evaluating adequacy of tools

39

Contact Information

Rich Juricich, P.E., M.S.Statewide Water Planning

DWR, Planning & Local Assistance

901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento

(916) 651-9225

juricich @ water.ca.gov

www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov