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California Housing MarketUpdate
Monthly Sales and Price Statistics
July 2018
California, July 2018 Sales: 406,920 Units, -1.4% YTD, -3.4% YTY
Sales Declined for the 3rd Consecutive Month
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jul-18:406,920
Jul-17:421,920
California Home Sales Continued to Declinefor the 3rd Month
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Bay Area Sales Up in Five of the Last SixMonths
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Yo
Y%
ch
g.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales BouncedBack in July
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)YoY % chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Virtually Unchanged fromLast Year
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)YoY % chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
July 2018 (Year-to-Year)
Sales Declined in Every Segment under $500k
-21.3%
-8.7%
-3.5%-1.2%
5.3% 5.7%
19.0%
13.7%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California, July 2018: $591,460, -1.9% MTM, +7.6% YTY
CA Median Price Dipped Slightly after Settinga New Record High
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000P:May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
Jul-18:$591,460Jul-17:
$549,470
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6.4%
7.1% 7.1% 7.2%
6.4%
9.3%
7.8%
6.7%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
YTY
%C
hg
.in
Pric
e
Condo Single-Family Homes
Price Growth Remained Strong for bothHomes and Condos
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/TownhomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Jan
-05
Jun
-05
No
v-0
5
Ap
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Feb
-07
Jul-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Oc
t-08
Ma
r-09
Au
g-0
9
Jan
-10
Jun
-10
No
v-1
0
Ap
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Feb
-12
Jul-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
Oc
t-13
Ma
r-14
Au
g-1
4
Jan
-15
Jun
-15
No
v-1
5
Ap
r-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Feb
-17
Jul-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ma
y-1
8
Me
dia
nP
ric
e
Condo
Condo/Townhome Market Set Another NewRecord High Median Price
SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/TownhomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jul-18:$486,330
Jul-17:$443,160
CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Month-to-Month % Chg
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
July 2018: $289, Down 0.3% MTM, Up 7.0% YTY
Price Per Square Foot Remained Near RecordHigh
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
PR
ICE
PER
SQ
.FT
.
Jul-18:$289Jul-17:
$270
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
July 2018: 99.6%, -0.4% MTM, -0.4% YTY
Sales Price -to-List Price Had 1st Decline in40 Months
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Sa
les-
to-L
ist
Pric
eR
atio
Jul-18:99.6%
Jul-17:100.0%
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Slow Growth in List Price Suggests SalesPrice Tapering Off in the Near Term
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1/1
/200
9
5/1
/200
9
9/1
/200
9
1/1
/201
0
5/1
/201
0
9/1
/201
0
1/1
/201
1
5/1
/201
1
9/1
/201
1
1/1
/201
2
5/1
/201
2
9/1
/201
2
1/1
/201
3
5/1
/201
3
9/1
/201
3
1/1
/201
4
5/1
/201
4
9/1
/201
4
1/1
/201
5
5/1
/201
5
9/1
/201
5
1/1
/201
6
5/1
/201
6
9/1
/201
6
1/1
/201
7
5/1
/201
7
9/1
/201
7
1/1
/201
8
5/1
/201
8
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Listing Price Sales Price
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.6%100.5%
100.0% 100.0%
98.8%
99.0%
99.2%
99.4%
99.6%
99.8%
100.0%
100.2%
100.4%
100.6%
100.8%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Jun-17 Jun-18
California, July 2018: 18.0 Days
Time on Market Near Record-Low Level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
DA
YS
ON
MA
RK
ET
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Time on Market by Percentile
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1614 15 16 17 16 16 15
22
1618 18 18 18 17
1517
15
25
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Median Time on Market
Jul-17 Jul-18
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2%
Reduced-Price Listings
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Reduced-Price Listings
Share Reduced Median Reduction
July 2017: 3.2 Months; July 2018: 3.3 Months
Inventory Index Up from 2017 but RemainedTight
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is definedas the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings Had the Highest Growth Ratesince at Least Jan 2015
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11.9%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Year-over-Year % Chg
Inventory Index Highest in Millions
3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.42.7
4.0 4.04.7
10.5
3.23.2 3.1 3.1 3.13.6
2.73.4
3.94.6
9.1
3.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jul-17 Jul-18
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Housing Supply Improved across the Board,Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment
July 2018
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-17.4%
4.2%
14.6%
20.0%17.5%
14.3%
3.4%
11.9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Active Listing
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued toSoften
2.2
3.63.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is definedas the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings by Month
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Active Listings by Month
2017 2018
Active Listings Surged in All Regions
2%0%
-1%
26%
14%
8%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley
Ye
ar-
to-Y
ea
r%
Ch
g
Sales Active Listings
July 2018
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®