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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
April 2015
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015f
SFH Resales (000s) 474.9 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 398.4
% Change 24.5% -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 3.9%
Median Price ($000s) $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $473.1
% Change -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 5.8%Housing Affordability Index 51% 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 29%
30-Yr FRM 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.1%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SALES DOWN FOR 2014 BUT WILL IMPROVE IN 2015; PRICE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THIS
YEAR
Units (Thousand)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
383,320398,360
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$447,010
$473,100
Median PricePrice
(Thousand)
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA: DOLLAR VOLUME UP 1.4% IN 2014, UP 10.0% IN 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$301
$244
$164 $133 $131 $127 $121
$140 $169 $171
$188
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change
% Change$ in Billion
-60%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
US GDP -3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%
Nonfarm Job Growth -4.4% -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%
Unemployment 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4%
CPI -0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.6%Real Disposable Income, % Change -0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -0.2% 2.5% 3.3%
SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015f
Nonfarm Job Growth -6.0% -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4%
Unemployment Rate 11.3% 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.6%
Population Growth 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.3% 0.9% 3.4% 4.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.3%
SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
