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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

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Page 1: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

August 21,20152015 California GAD Institute

Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

Page 2: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

OVERVIEW

• Economic Outlook

• California Housing Market Outlook

• Membership Survey

• Legislative and Industry Issues

• Consumer Behavior

Page 3: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Page 4: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Q2-10

Q4-10

Q2-11

Q4-11

Q2-12

Q4-12

Q2-13

Q4-13

Q2-14

Q4-14

Q2-15

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

GDP BOUNCED BACK AFTER A SLOW START

2014: 2.4%; 2015 Q2: 2.3% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $

ANNUALLY QUARTERLY

2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)

SERIES: GDPSOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 5: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AT 7-YEAR LOWS

June 2015: US 5.3% & CA 6.3%

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14% US-CA CA US

SERIES: Unemployment RateSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

Page 6: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, CALIFORNIA VS. U.S.

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6 California USANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

SERIES: Total Nonfarm EmploymentSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

Page 7: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA

Ventura

Modesto

Sacramento

Stockton MSA

Orange County

San Francisco

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

1.2%

1.6%

1.7%

1.9%

2.2%

2.5%

2.8%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

4.2%

5.5%

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

June 2015: CA +2.9%, +461,800

Page 8: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

June 2015: 101.4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

150

20

40

60

80

100

120INDEX, 100=1985

SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board

Page 9: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p 2016f

US GDP 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8%

Nonfarm Job Growth -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9%

Unemployment 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4% 5.1%

CPI 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.6% 2.4%Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -0.2% 2.5% 3.3% 2.8%

30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5%

SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 10: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p2016f

Nonfarm Job Growth -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3%

Unemployment Rate 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.6% 5.8%

Population Growth 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.9% 3.4% 4.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.3% 4.5%

SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 11: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Page 12: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES

California, Jul 2015 Sales: 449,530 Units, +7.1% YTD, +12.7% YTY

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jul-15: 449,53

0

Jul-14: 398,98

0

Page 13: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES

California, Jul 2015: $488,260, -0.3% MTM, +5.4% YTY

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5 $-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000 P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jul-15: $488,26

0

Jul-15: $463,33

0

Page 14: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR

Jul 2014: 3.8 Months; Jul 2015: 3.3 Months

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 15: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY

San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

5%

18%

14%

-13%

-4%

2%

Sales Active ListingsYear-to-Year % Chg

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

July 2015

Page 16: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED

2014: 85,065 Units, Up 3.4% from 20132015f: 91,750 Units

SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000 Single Family Multi-Family

Household Growth: 165,000/yr

Page 17: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW

California 1970-2020

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

SOURCE: Moody’s Analytics

Page 18: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

• Housing market is improving given fundamentals – Low mortgage rates– Job & Income growth are back

• And yet…– Supply is significantly below long-run

average– Share of first-time buyers LOW– Affordability key concern for renters

2015 - WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

Page 19: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP IN ’14 BUT STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

28.1%30.5%

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%

QUESTION: Was the buyer a first-time buyer?SERIES: 2014 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 20: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012

California vs. U.S. – 1984-2014% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

2012

Q2 2012

Q4 2012

Q2 2013

Q4 2013

Q2 2014

Q4 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% CA USAnnual Quarterly

Page 21: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CALIFORNIA’S MAJOR METROS ARE LESS AFFORDABLE THAN THE AVERAGE U.S.

METRO

SOURCE: Legislative Analyst’s Office

Page 22: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

STATE’S LOW-INCOME HH’S SPEND MUCH MORE!

SOURCE: Legislative Analyst’s Office

Page 23: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012

California vs. U.S. – 1984-2014% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

2012

Q2 2012

Q4 2012

Q2 2013

Q4 2013

Q2 2014

Q4 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% CA USAnnual Quarterly

Page 24: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CA: BY COUNTY

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

HAI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7062 61 60 58 57

51 51 49 48 4643 42

3934 34

31 31 30 29 28 2823 22 22 22 21 19 18

14 12

% able to purchase median priced home2015 Q1

Page 25: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

AFFORDABLE INVENTORY AVAILABLE TO MEDIAN-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

68.9%

31.2%

11.6%10.1%

1.7%

2015 Q1

Page 26: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

Retail Sales-

persons

Chefs and Head

Cooks

Elemen-tary

School Teachers

Fire-fighters

Police and

Sherriff's Patrol Of-

ficers

Com-puter Pro-

grammers

Regis-tered

Nurses

Software Devel-opers

(Applica-tions)

Min. Inc Required to Buy a

Med. Home

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$27,010

$45,340

$69,990$71,630

$87,520$89,250

$98,400

$119,970

$87,698

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME

(2014)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Annual Mean Wage

California

Page 27: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MILLENNIAL “TRUE” HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING …

Page 28: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP IN ’14 BUT STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

28.1%30.5%

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%

QUESTION: Was the buyer a first-time buyer?SERIES: 2014 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 29: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MILLENIALS – DIFFERENT HOUSING ASPIRATIONS –

OR LACK OF MEANS?

Page 30: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THEM STILL LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Page 31: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MAJORITY RENT BECAUSE THEY CAN’T AFFORD TO BUY

Why do you rent instead of buying?

Other

Believe housing market will decline in the near future

No interest in buying

Don't want the responsibility of owning

Don't have a job

Enjoy the flexibility/freedom of renting

Too costly to maintain property as owner

Can't qualify for a mortgage

Don't have a down payment

It's easier to rent

Not ready to buy

Can't afford to buy

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

2%4%

7%9%

10%

15%

16%

17%

20%

24%

37%

67%

SERIES: 2014 Millennials SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 32: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MILLENNIALS’ BIGGEST CONCERNS

What are your biggest concerns about home ownership?

Price/Affordability (45%)

Problems with Credit, Mortgages, or Taxes (19%)

Maintenance/Upkeep (14%)

Satisfaction with Home/Location (7%)

Responsibility (4%)

SERIES: 2014 Millennials SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 33: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES

Page 34: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MOST MILLENNIALS IN CALIFORNIA UNCERTAIN /DOUBTFUL THAT THEY COULD OBTAIN A MORTGAGE NOW?AMILLENNIAL

ETHNICITY

SOURCE: C.A.R. 2014 Millennial SurveyQ: Could you obtain a mortgage if you applied now ?

Yes 22%

No 33%

Don't know 45%

Page 35: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

MANY OF THEM, HOWEVER, PLAN TO LEAVE THE NEST BY 2018

SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing Forecasts

Page 36: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

WHAT FACTORS WILL ENCOURAGE MILLENNIALS TO BUY A HOME IN THE

FUTURE

Source: Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC and One Poll

Page 37: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVE AS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

18.9

CA Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 15.9

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Tenure of Homeowners (Years)

Page 38: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVE AS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO

Reasons for longer tenure:

• Mortgage Lock-in effects

• “Underwater” homeowners

• Lack of “affordable” trade-up/down properties

• More costly to move than to remodel

• Investors using properties as rental

• Prop. 13?

Page 39: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

NET MIGRATION – CA TO OTHER STATES

Page 40: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

NET MIGRATION BY ANNUAL INCOME, 2007-2013

Page 41: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED

2014: 85,065 Units, Up 3.4% from 20132015f: 91,750 Units

SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000 Single Family Multi-Family

Household Growth: 165,000/yr

Page 42: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 - 2012-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

-5,485165,105

223,058

575,156

957,834

Households not formed

# OF HOUSEHOLDS LOST IN THE GREAT RECESSION

SOURCE: California Dept. of Finance; compiled by C.A.R.

Page 43: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

WHAT IS OUR FUTURE?

“…If current trends continue, California will build less than 60 percent of the new housing needed over the next 20 years.”

Little Hoover Commission Report on Housing in California

Page 44: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SOLVING CALIFORNIA’S HOUSING PROBLEM

Page 45: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SOLUTIONS

• Production Gap is Primary Source of CA’s Housing Problems

• Solutions must include:– Increase in Production

• Infill and brownfield opportunities in urban areas where shortage is critical

– Revitalization of Neighborhoods– Change Incentive Structure Facing Cities

• Fiscal• Housing & Zoning Requirements• Enforce housing elements of general plans, create

incentives to comply

– Improve Business & Legal Climate for Developers – CEQA Reform

Page 46: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SOLUTIONS

• Attitude Shift is Essential to Moving Toward Solutions…

– By Households as Residents– By Households as Taxpayers– By Local Elected Officials– By State Officials

• … and an Attitude Shift Requires Education and Heightened Awareness of Problems, Implications, and Solutions!

• Solutions will take time

Page 47: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

2015 MEMBERSHIP SURVEY

Page 48: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

UNAIDED AWARENESS OF REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATIONS IN 2015

Q: What industry (real estate) associations or other organizations are you aware of?

California Association of REALTORS®

Local Real Estate Board/Association of REALTORS®

National Association of REALTORS®

California Bureau of Real Estate (CalBRE formerly DRE)

Women's Council of REALTORS®

Asian Real Estate Association of America (AREAA)

National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP)

National Association of Real Estate Brokers (NAREB)

95%

93%

79%

29%

18%

14%

10%

7%

Page 49: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

AWARENESS OF ASSOCIATIONS SLIGHTLY UP FOR C.A.R./NAR

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% 95%0.93

0.79

0.18

0.29

C.A.R. Local AOR N.A.R.W.C.R. CalBRE (DRE)

• Q: What industry (real estate) associations or other organizations are you aware of?

Page 50: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

84% FIND C.A.R HELPFUL IN THEIR REAL ESTATE BUSINESS

2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

86% 84% 80% 84%

11% 16%16%

16%2% 0% 4% 0%

UnsureNoYes

• Q: Do you feel that organized real estate, such as C.A.R, helps you in your real estate business?

Page 51: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

HOW C.A.R HELPS REALTORS®

Helps promote professional

image of REALTORS®

23%

zipForm® 6 and standard forms

31%

Education and Training

38%

Legal advice, Legal Hotline

43%

CRE Magazine and Other

Publications 40%

Code of Ethics60%

Economic & Market

Information65%

Lobbying & Government Advocacy

69%

• Q: Why do you feel that organized real estate does help you in your real estate business?

Page 52: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

OVER THE YEARS LEGAL HOTLINE REMAINS TOP BENEFIT, ZIPFORM® “BIGGEST GAINER”

0%20%40%60%80%

58%73% 74% 74% 77%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

• Q: What benefits, information, events, services or products does the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) offer REALTORS® like you?

Page 53: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

WHEN I HEAR C.A.R., I THINK… (UNAIDED RESPONSES)

• Q: When you hear CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, what is the first thing that comes to mind? [Single response only.] (Selected listing of highest frequency responses)

2012 2013 2014 2015

Industry advocate (41%)

Keepings member on top of key issues (41%)

Keepings member on top of key issues (28%)

Lobbying(24%)

Essential (18%)

Lobbying (25%)

Lobbying (24%)

Code of Ethics (23%)

Protects interests of REALTORS® (13%)

Essential (21%)

Code of ethics (17%)

Keepings member on top of key issues (22%)

Supportive (9%)

Legal services (9%)

Legal services (13%)

zipForm® (16%)

Keepings member on top of key issues (6%)

Education, training (5%)

zipForm® (11%)

Legal Services (15%)

Page 54: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

2015 TOP 5 BENEFITS MENTIONED

• Q: What benefits, information, events, services or products does the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) offer REALTORS® like you?

5.Develop, introduce, and advocate CAR- sponsored legislation

4. California Real Estate Magazine

3. zipForm® Plus

2. Government Advocacy (Lobbying)

2. Helping you stay current on trends in real estate

1. Legal Hotline

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

43%

58%

73%

74%

74%

77%

Page 55: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

• Q: Please rate C.A.R on a series of programs on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being extremely satisfied and 1 being extremely dissatisfied.

CRE

RE Mkt Analysis/Stats

Lobbying

Staff Services

Legal Services

zipForm® Plus

Value of your membership compared to what you pay

Overall Satisfaction

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.1

8.3

8.0

8.2

8.2

SATISFACTION OF SERVICES AND PROGRAMS

Page 56: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

LEGISLATIVE & INDUSTRY ISSUES

Page 57: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

• Q: Please rate the following legislative issues on a 10pt. Scale in order of their importance, with 10 being extremely important and 1 being extremely unimportant.

FINANCE AMONG THE MOST IMPORTANT LEGISLATIVE ISSUES IN 2015IN 2015

(AVERAGE SCORE)

1031 Exchange

Business license taxes

Point-of-Sale regulations

Mortgage Reform/Housing Finance Reform

Vacant property maintenance requirements

Restoring FHA Loan Limits

Mortgage loan availability

Mortgage Interest Deduction

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

6.1

6.5

7.1

7.9

8.2

8.4

9.1

9.5

Page 58: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

• Q: Please rate the following industry issues on a 10pt. Scale in order of their importance, with 10 being extremely important and 1 being extremely unimportant.

ETHICS AND PROFESSIONALISM MOST IMPORTANT INDUSTRY ISSUES IN 2015

Pocket Listing/Off-MLS Listings

Agent rating websites (such as Yelp, RatedAgent, etc)

The growing dominance of Real Estate Teams*

CalBRE licensing requirements and rules

The geographic comprehensiveness/reach data share of your MLS*

Placement of listings on online portals such as Zillow/Trulia

The value of using a "REALTOR®"

Ethics and professionalism in the industry

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5.9

6.3

6.7

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

Page 59: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

INVENTORY & FINANCING GREATEST CHALLENGES IN 2015

• Q: What do you anticipate will be the greatest challenge in your real estate business over the next year?

Lenders tracking credit changes, purchases hits right up to closing (reduces certainty of mortgage)

Especially difficult to qualify investors for financing

Mortgage financing is very difficult

Lack of inventory, listings

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

8%

14%

30%

48%

Page 60: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Page 61: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

TOP 5 REASONS FOR BUYING

Desired better/other location

Changed jobs/relocated

Desired larger home

To have a place to live

Tired of renting

8%

11%

12%

14%

15%

Q. What were your main reasons for buying your home?

Page 62: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

REASONS FOR NOT BUYING SOONERFIRST-TIME BUYERS VS. REPEAT BUYERS

Q. Why didn’t you buy a home sooner?

Needed to save for down payment

Waited until finances improved

Couldn't afford

Waited to see when prices would stabilize

No real buying urgency

No need

24%

18%

12%

18%

14%

2%

3.3%

5.4%

8.1%

8.1%

9.4%

9.5%

Repeat buyers First-time buyers

Page 63: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

TOP REASONS FOR SELLING

Q: What was your primary reason for selling your home?

For the investment advantages

To get the highest price for the home

I had trouble making the mortgage payment

I had to relocate for work

Another reason:

I wanted a larger home

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

2.3%2.5%2.8%2.9%4.6%

7.9%9.8%10.8%11.8%12.1%

14.1%18.5%

Carmen Hirciag
Please display single digit percentages to one decimal point. You may have to calculate some of the responses manually to get the precise decimal.
Page 64: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

REASONS FOR SELLING DIFFER ACROSS GENERATIONS

Q: What was your primary reason for selling your home?

All Gen Y

Gen X

Boomers

Silent

Desired better location 19% 25% 20% 20% 4.5%

Wanted larger home 13% 25% 24% 3.3% 2.3%

Downsizing 12% 1.6% 6.6% 14% 32%

Change in family status 11% 16% 13% 7.6% 9.1%

Relocating for work 11% 14% 16% 8.1% 0%

I was retiring 8.0%

0% 0.6% 17% 5%

Trouble making mortgage payment

4.3%

4.7% 5.4% 2.9% 7.0%

I am an empty nester 3.3%

0% o% 7.1% 2.3%

I lost my job 2.9%

3.1% 1.8% 4.3% 0%

For the investment advantages

2.1%

1.6% 3.0% 0.5% 6.8%

Page 65: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

BEING RESPONSIVE IS IMPORTANT TO BUYERS IN SELECTING AN AGENT

Knowledgeable/experienced

Negotiating ability

Trustworthy

Previously used agent

Seemed most reponsive

7%

8%

8%

10%

20%

Q. What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent that you used in your recent home purchase?.

Page 66: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

REASON SELLER SELECTED AGENT

Trustworthy (18%)

Worked with agent on previous transaction (17%)

Recommended (17%)

Friend / acquaintance (17%)

Good reputation/successful (16%)

Fastest to respond (6%)

Q: What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent you used in your recent home sale?

Page 67: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

TOP 5 REASONS FOR SATISFACTION WITH AGENT

Responded fast (26%)

Listened to needs (24%)

Helped find best home (22%)

Worked hard (22%)

Did a good job facilitating transaction (18%)

Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?

Page 68: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SELLER SATISFACTION WITH AGENT IS CORRELATED TO FACILITATING THE TRANSACTION

1. Stayed on top of process (44%) 2.Good/excellent job (13%) 3. Agent was professional (11%)

1. Didn’t communicate well (5.6%)2. Could have done a better job (5.4%)3. Could have sold for higher price (1.8%)

Q: Please explain why you had that level of satisfaction with your agent.

Page 69: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

ADVICE TO AGENTS FROM BUYERS

Communicate better (17%)

Communicate according to client preference (12%)

Negotiate better (9.3%)

Understand market better (9%)

Respond faster (7.6%)

Q. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service?

Page 70: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

SELLER ADVICE TO AGENTS

47%

• Work hard and stay on top of everything47%

• Be honest and ethical46%

• Keep client informed34%

• Listen to client needs33%

• Be up front with clients30%

• Explain the process

27%

• Set the correct listing price

Q: What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or level of service?

Page 71: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

35% OF BUYERS USE SOCIAL MEDIA IN BUYING PROCESS

Agents' YouTube

Agent's Facebook page

Agent referrals

Neighborhood info

Buying tips, suggestions from friends

Home buying info

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

17%

26%

27%

30%

31%

35%

Q. How did you use social media (such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc.) in your home buying process?

Page 72: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK August 21,2015 2015 California GAD Institute Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

THANK YOU!

[email protected]