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California Association of Realtors
GAD Institute
Chris GosselinSenior Political Representative
National Association of Realtors
August 19, 2015
31%
61%
Public Still Skeptical On National Outlook
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015. 2
Percentage Responding to Question:“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headedin the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong
track?”
Public Outlook for Economy Gradually Improving
*N.B.: Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the past year…”Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, March 1-5, 2015. 3
Percentage Responding to Question: “During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get
better or worse?”*
21%
29%% Better/Worse
Better Worse
past 5 years
Source: Conference Board, June 2015; Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, June 2015. 4
Consumers Optimism Improving But Still Low by Historical Measure
Consumer Confidence = 101.4
Ind
ex
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®
Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Confidence Index ® and Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment = 96.1
48%
48%
Public Nearly Split on Obama’s Job Approval
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015; Gallup.com, June 22-28, 2015. 5
NBC/WSJ’s Presidential Job Approval
Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval
49%
47%
Public Opinion Split on Democratic Party
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015. 6
NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Democratic Party
36%
38%
Public Holds Negative Opinion of GOP
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015. 7
NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Republican Party
30%
43%
Share of Self-Described Independents Grows at Expense of Both Parties
Source: Gallup.com, 2015. 8
Gallup’s Party Affiliation SurveyResponding to question: “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or
an independent?”
44% Independents
28%Democrats
27%Republicans
Congressional Partisanship Over Time
Source: Senate.gov, 2014; Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives, 2014; CNN, 2014.
9
GOP Sweeps Competitive Races
Recommendations and detected threats
OHWV
VA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
VT
NH
MARICT
NJ
DE
MD
AK
HI
NC: Thom Tillis (R) won a slim upset victory over Kay Hagan (D)
AR: Tom Cotton (R) easily defeated Sen. Mark Pryor, helping to complete Arkansas’ transformation into a Republican stronghold
AK: Dan Sullivan (R) beat Sen. Mark Begich (D) in a close race that took an addition week to count the votes
LA: Bill Cassidy (R) beat Sen. Landrieu (D) in a runoff election announced on December 6, 2014
KY: Sen. McConnell (R) handily defeated Alison Grimes (D) on his way to becoming majority leader
GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a runoff, blowing out former non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn
Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, 2014.
MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R)
Republican Victories
Democratic Victories
SD: Mike Rounds (R), despite seeing outside money pour in against him at the last minute after reports of a scandal during his time as governor, won an easy victory over Rick Weiland (D) and former Sen. Larry Pressler (I)
CO: Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall easily after Udall ran a poor one-note campaign on reproductive health that voters didn’t engage with
NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) held off a national tide against Democrats, holding on to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R)
KS: Sen. Roberts (R), after facing bad polling numbers earlier this summer, brought in a team of top-tier Republican strategists and won re-election by a wide margin over Greg Orman (I)
IA: Joni Ernst (R) handily won election over gaffe-prone Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the race for Sen. Tom Harkin (D)’s seat
VA: Mark Warner (D) defeated Ed Gillespie (R) in an unexpectedly close race that almost went to a recount
Source: National Journal Research, 2015.
Republicans Hold Majority of Senate Seats Up For Election in 2016
Analysis• The U.S. Senate elections in 2016 feature 22 seats with Republican incumbents, 7 seats with Democratic
incumbents, and 5 open seats• The five open seats are in the Democratic strongholds of California and Maryland, Republican-leaning
Indiana, and the swing states of Nevada and Florida
2016 U.S. Senate Elections by Incumbent Party
Recommendations and detected threats
OHWV
VA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
VT
NH
MARICT
NJ
DEMD
AK
HI
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic-Held Seats
Open Seats No Election in 2016
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Republicans Make Significant Gains in House
AnalysisRepublicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even
larger than expected
House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
AK
Democratic Hold
Democratic Gain
Republican Gain
Republican Hold
Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247Independents: 0Undecided: 0
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Republicans Win Record Majority in House
Analysis• Republicans won a total of 247 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928• An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing
legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections
Control of the 114th House (2015-2017)
AK
Democratic
Republican
Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247Independents: 0Undecided: 0
Cook Political Report Rates the Districts
Source: Cook Political Report, 2015. 14
Analysis• According to the Cook Partisan Vote Index, the number of swing seats in the House has dropped
45%, from 164 in 1998 to 90 in 2014• Fewer swing seats means more polarization in Congress• As district populations grow increasingly liberal or conservative, incumbents fear radical primary
challengers
House Makeup by Cook Partisan Vote Index
In House, Fewer “Swing” Seats, More Polarization
Numberof Seats
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312 324 336 348 360 372 384 396 408 420 432
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Incumbent Party Win Margin
21 Incumbent Party Losses(15 Losses, 6 Open Seat Takeovers)
15 Wins < 5%
18 Wins Between 5 - 10%
317 Races Won by 20%+
Pete Agu
ilar
Jim Costa
Scott Pete
rs
Mike Honda
John Garamen
di
Raul R
uiz
Jeff Den
ham
David Vala
dao
Linda S
anch
ez
Judy Chu
Lorett
a San
chez
Tom M
cClin
tock
Lucill
e Royb
al-Alla
rd
Dana R
ohrabach
er
Brad Sh
erman
Mark DeS
aulnier
Paul C
ook
Edward
Royce
Eric S
wallwell
Duncan Hunter
Doris M
atsui
Tony C
arden
as
Kevin M
cCart
hy
Mike Th
ompson
Jackie
Speie
r
Karen Bass
Barbara
Lee
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
1 incumbent party loss
7 races won by <5%
3 races won by 5% -10%
32 races won by more than 20%
California Incumbent Party Win Margin
Pete Aguilar
Maxine W
aters
Grace Napolita
no
Mark Takano
Zoe Lofgren
Julia
Brownley
Tony Cardenas
John Garamendi
Ted Lieu
Anna Eshoo
Karen Bass
Scott Peters
Brad Sherman
Eric Swallw
ell
Jackie Speier
Raul Ruiz
Doug LaMalfa
Adam Schiff
Darrell I
ssa
Ken Calvert
Mimi W
alters
Paul Cook
David Valadao
Edward Royce
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Did much better than same-party 2012 presidential candidate
Did much worse than same-party 2012 presidential candidate
California Congressional Same-Party Presidential Outperformance
Bera
AmadorCosta
KhannaCapps
Gorell
Aguilar
DeMaio$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
Total amount spent by candidates in CA races won by <5%
2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014Bera McNerney Costa Capps Brownley Peters
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
1.60%
0.40%
9.40%
4.30%
10.20%
0.90%
9.60%
3.30%4.00%
2.00%
1.00%
3.20%
Win Margin in Competitive CA Districts, 2012-2014
Sam
Farr
Jim Costa
Scott Pete
rs
Lois
Capps
John G
aram
endi
Jared H
uffman
Duncan H
unter
Raul R
uiz
Nancy
Pelosi
Mike
Thom
pson
Barbar
a Lee
Mike
Honda
Juan
Var
gas
Susa
n Dav
is
Brad Sh
erman
Eric
Swall
well
Zoe Lo
fgren
Jerry
McN
erney
Mim
i Walt
ers
Karen Bas
s
Max
ine Wat
ers
Adam Sc
hiff
Steve
Knight
Mar
k Tak
ano
Grace
Nap
olitan
o
Norma T
orres
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Drop in Turnout by CD from 2012 to 2014
Dissecting the Gridlock
Categorizing the Congress
• Democrats divide along a left/right spectrum
• Republicans divide along an establishment/anti-establishment spectrum
• Keystone Pipeline• Progressive Caucus
Budget• Mortgage Choice Act• Trade Promotion
Authority• Removal of U.S. Forces
from Syria & Iraq
• Election of the Speaker• Homeland Security
Appropriations• Federal Support for
Amtrak• Medicare Access &
CHIP Reauthorization• Trade Promotion
Authority
House Democratic Factions
BecerraChuCardenasHahnHondaHuffmanLeeLofgrenLowenthalMatsuiNapolitanoRoybal-AllardLinda SanchezTakano
BassCappsFarrLieuMcNerneyPelosiSchiffSwalwellTorresWaters
BrownleyGaramendiSpeierThomponVargas
AguilarBeraDavisSherman
Peters Costa
House Republican Factions
CalvertMcCarthyNunesValadao
DenhamRoyce
CookIssaKnightLaMalfa
HunterMcClintockRohrabacher
RPAC Funding Process
Funds available without CREPAC / RPAC trustee approval:
• In-State Funds - $1,000 for use in home district by FPC– Contact Lisa Edwards at CAR to request in-state
funds– 2 week request deadline– $500 minimum– Check is sent to CAR, then to FPC for delivery
• DC Funds – $2,000 for Jerry Giovaniello to use to attend events in DC
RPAC Funding Process
Remaining funds subject to trustee approval (incumbents):
RPAC Funding Process – Open Seats
Additional Support for Federal Candidates
• Opportunity Races–Levels 1-3
• Independent Expenditures• President’s Circle
Opportunity Races 2014
California Members with outstanding FPC Funds
Doug LaMalfaJohn GaramendiMike ThompsonJerry McNerneyJackie SpeierEric SwalwellJim CostaMike Honda
Anna EshooSam FarrDevin NunesJulia BrownleyTony CardenasGrace NapolitanoTed LieuXavier Becerra
Raul RuizEd RoyceMaxine WatersAlan LowenthalDarrell IssaDuncan HunterJuan Vargas
Cook Political Report Race Ratings
Cash on Hand as of June 30 Filing PeriodGar
amen
di
Eggm
anCosta
Tech
erra
Honda
Schneid
erAch
adija
nAgu
ilar
Barra
gan
Peter
s
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Contact Information:
Chris GosselinSenior Political RepresentativeNational Association of REALTORS®
(202) [email protected]: @cbgosselin