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Current status of poverty, food security and agricultural growth in southern Africa
Pius ChilondaSub-Regional Coordinator, SAKSS-SA
IWMI/ICRISAT
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Stagnating agriculture growth• NEPAD/CAADP
vision by 2015: “Improve productivity of agriculture to attain an average annual growth rate of 6%”
• SADC RISDP calls for similar growth
SADC: Trends in total GDP and Ag. GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US
$ B
illi
on
Total GDP Agricultural GDP
Source: World Bank (2005)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Population in increasing
0
50
100
150
200
250
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Mill
ion
s
Urban PopRural Pop
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture employs still employs more people
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Non agric Econ.
Agric econ active
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Poverty situation: Per capita incomes by country (2004)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
US
$ p
er c
apit
a
Co
ng
o,
De
m.
Re
p.
Ma
law
i
Ma
da
ga
sc
ar
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Ta
nza
nia
Za
mb
ia
Zim
ba
bw
e
Le
so
tho
An
go
la
Sw
azi
lan
d
Na
mib
ia
So
uth
Afr
ica
Bo
tsw
an
a
Ma
uri
tiu
s
Source: World Bank (2005)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Trends - persistence of poverty
0102030405060708090
100
% B
elo
w 1
US
$/D
ay
So
uth
Afr
ica
Sw
azil
and
An
go
la
Nam
ibia
Bo
tsw
ana
Zim
bab
we
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Mad
agas
car
Tan
zan
ia
Les
oth
o
Zam
bia
Mal
awi
DR
C
1990 2001
Source: SADC (2005)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
National poverty lines - Urban & rural poverty rates
Country Rural Urban Overall
Malawi (1998) 66.5 54.9 65.3
Mozambique (1997)
71.3 62 69.4
Tanzania (1997) 38.7 29.5 35.7
Zambia (1998) 83.1 56 72.9
Source: World Bank (2005)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Southern Africa among highest under nourished populations
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture production indices – annual growth rates – 1995-2000
Source: FAO/GLIPHA (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture production indices – annual growth rates – 1999-2004
Source: FAO/GLIPHA (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Calories per caput per day
Source: FAO/GLIPHA (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Declining per capita cereal production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,0001
96
1
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
l to
nn
es
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Kg
/ca
pit
a
Production (ml tonnes) Kg/Capita
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Population growth Versus maize production per capita in Zambia _
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200019
61
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Mil
lio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Kg
/Cap
ita
Total population Maize production per capita
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture value added per worker per year
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,00019
85
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Co
nst
ant
2000
US
$
SADCOECDSSA
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agricultural GDP as Percentage of total – SADC Versus Rest
05
10152025303540
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Per
cen
tag
e (%
) SADC exc. SouthAfricaSADC
Sub-Saharan Africa
DevelopingCountries
Source: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Share of agriculture GDP in SADC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% A
gri
cu
ltu
ral
GD
P
Bo
tsw
an
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ma
uri
tiu
s
An
go
la
Na
mib
ia
Sw
azil
an
d
Zim
ba
bw
e
Le
so
tho
Za
mb
ia
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
Ma
da
ga
sc
ar
Ma
law
i
Ta
nza
nia
Co
ng
o,
De
m.
Re
p.
Source: World Bank (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Productivity Maize yields (kg/ha) – SADC Versus Rest
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
Kg
/ha
Developed Countries Developing Countries SADCSource: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Productivity Sorghum yields (kg/ha) – SADC Versus Rest
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Kg
/ha
SADC Developed DevelopingSource: FAOSTAT (2006)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Beef productivity among lowest - Kg/animal
Source: FAO/GLIPHA (2006)
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