C N I A - Aluminum · 2016. 3. 9. · scaffold Al wall and roof Al overcrossing China emerging markets-construction & structure • Al formwork weight=25kg/m2 • Up to now, China

Mail: [email protected]

C N I A China Aluminum Industry Picture

Mo Xinda

Engineer, Division Director

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association


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1

CONTENTS

2 3

What the future holds?

One hope!


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Key points:

Production

Application

Trade

Energy consumption


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1. Production struggle to beat past highs, but growth rate

continue falling.

Primary aluminum


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New-added capacity of 2015

Shutting-down capacity of 2015

Primary aluminum


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Alumina

The trend

approximately

agreed with

primary aluminum;

In 2015 Q4, closed

capacity exceeded

9 million tons. And

this will take effect

in 2016.


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Aluminum semis


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Secondary aluminum

The output up-trend

stayed steadily;

Secondary

aluminum output

accounts for

approximately 20%

of primary aluminum;

Domestic recycling

kept on increasing,

CAGR is 24%.


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2. Trade-China aluminum industry development focus on domestic

needs

Primary aluminum-net import Aluminum semis-net export


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Resource-net import Import bauxite sources are more

plentiful

Brazil, Dominica, Ghana, Guinea,

Solomon Islands, Fiji, Guyana,

Vietnam …


Malaysia

Australia

India

Brazil

West Africa and South America would become China main sources of

bauxite.

There is abundant bauxite resources in the world. Meantime, China

always works on discovering new resources. Resource will not be a

bottleneck of China aluminum industry development.

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3. Consumption – there will still be a huge space to grow

Forecast

aluminum apparent consumption (million tons)

10

22

31


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3. Consumption - Structure of aluminum End Use is adjusting

The year of 2007 The year of 2015


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4. Facility upgrade & Energy consumption come down


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CONTENTS

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What the future holds? One hope!



• The gear of growth is shifting from high speed to medium-to-

high speed

1. China's “New Normal”

China goal:

GDP(2016-2020)>6.5%



China's 2016 policy concerning al industry

Govt announced a raft of

growth supportive

measures. China will invest

800 billion yuan in railway

construction this year.

800 bln yuan

Support

consumption

Set a projected annual

GDP growth between 6.5%

to 7%.

GDP growth

rate

6.5-7%

Make the supply more effective

in meeting demand, taking

measures including cutting

overcapacity and destocking,

lowering cost, de-leverage and

strengthen shortages.

Supply side

reform

5 measures


2. China aluminum in 2016


Investment of primary aluminum,

alumina and secondary aluminum

kept a sustained downward trend.

Investment of aluminum

processing fell in 2015.


Al price mainly affected by fundamentals & financial attribute.

Fundamentals

Irrational market speculation

was the main factor of

mispricing.

Reductio

n took

effect.




Aluminum Supply – Through enhancing management of

supply-side, output growth rate will continue slowing

down

Investment decline

Reduction is pretty effective. Industry

self-discipline has improved significantly.

The finished projects which have been

postponed tend to keep waiting. Those

higher-cost capacity will eventually be

closed.

Up to the end of

2015, the total

shut down

capacity was

8mt.



3. Al consumption growth is mainly in three respects

Emerging markets

Innovations

Mature markets

Under researching

Material technology &

market; Widely used at

abroad, fewer

in China

Changing with

relative

industries



Traditional markets & products-Construction

Year of 2015:

Floor space under

construction was 7.4 billion m2,

up by 1.3% y-o-y;

New Construction was 1.5

billion m2, down by 14% y-o-y;

Government release an

easing signal.

There still 46 billion m2 less

efficient door and window

need to be transformed.



Year of 2015:

Passenger vehicle output

exceed 21 million units, up 5.8%

y-o-y;

Commercial vehicle output was

3.4 million units, down 3.6% y-o-

y;

New energy vehicle output was

about 340 thousand units, an

increase of 3.3 times.

Traditional markets & products-Transportation



Al formwork &

scaffold

Al wall and

roof Al overcrossing

China emerging markets-construction & structure

• Al formwork

weight=25kg/m2

• Up to now, China

formwork inventory

exceed 800 million m2,

al formwork accounting

for about 5%.

Al pallet

• At present, in China,

most of the wall and

roof of factories

were made of color

steel. The

Consumption of

steel is 5 million

tons.

Weight of a pallet

sized

1200mm×1000mm

×150mm：

• Steel-25.2kg

• Wood-20.6kg

• Aluminum-11.1kg

• Al consumption of

a 30m length

overcrossing is

about 50t.



Building integrated photo

voltaic

4G

communications

base station room

Al

housing

Al compound flood

wall

Al window

shade

Al elevator ladder


Al tanker

Al new energy

City bus

Al coal wagon

Al trailer

• Commercial Vans tend to

be replaced by al trailer,

such as delivery vehicle &

tobacco vehicle.

• CNPC and

Sinopec began to

choose al tanker.

• Up to now, the

number of al coal

wagon accounts

for less 5% of total

coal and mine

wagon. The rate of

some developed

countries exceed

20%.

• China govt improve

new energy with great

subsidies.

• Lightweight could

extend the range.


China emerging markets-transportation



Auto body

sheet

Aluminum-air

battery

Used for Sea water

desalinization

Others



2011-

2015CAGR=9%

Transportation Construction &

structure

Others

Forecast- China aluminum consumption will keep rising.

Growth rate in the next 5 years as follows:

2011-

2015CAGR=12%

2011-2015CAGR:

Packing=26%

Electricity=10%


One hope

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CONTENTS

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One hope!


Lightweight Corrosion

resistance，

Durable

Easy

formation Recyclable

One hope

Aluminum

Maybe people don’t know!


Recycling

economy

Green

development

Promote aluminum

Application in more

fields, instead of more

material!

One hope

One world, one dream!


Thanks For

Watching

Mo Xinda（Engineer, Division Director of CNIA)

Tel: +86 138 106 10986 Mail: [email protected]

Documents

C N I A - Aluminum · 2016. 3. 9. · scaffold Al wall and roof Al overcrossing China emerging markets-construction & structure • Al formwork weight=25kg/m2 • Up to now, China