By development we mean

By sustainable we mean ….

(able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s

development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

The world as seen by a development economist

GDP per capita PPP adjusted

Nordhouse

richrich poorpoorGNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450

population (billion)population (billion) 1.21.2 5.35.3

% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5

% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4

infant mortality rateinfant mortality rate 6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000

children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0

life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565

% urban% urban 7676 4141

people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464

Today’s divided worldToday’s divided world

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter

Source: www.worldmapper.org

GDP Wealth increases

7yr doubling

10 yr doubling

GDP = C + I + E + G

C = Consumer SpendingI = Investment made by industryE = Excess of Exports over

ImportsG = Government Spending

Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be.° Health - life expectancy° GDP - the usual measure of welfare

Add them up, normalize, range from .0 to 1.000

Norway is top rank, Niger bottom, Afghanistan next to last (2009)

US is #13, China #92, India 134, Australia #2

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

GDP can be high and development low

HDI

GDP

Life expectancy

Gapminder

Gapminder

The distribution appears to have two parts

Gapminder

Which direction is causation?

Does improved health create wealth, ordoes wealth lead to improved health?

Maternal mortality

Young female illiteracy

Human development HDIA few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain

Human development declines

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter

Source: www.worldmapper.org

HDI

GDP

Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading

The Happy Planet Index!

GDP per capita PPP adjustedLife expectancy x Life satisfaction

Ecological footprint

Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modalThe Happy Planet Index!

Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure).

What governs the current global distribution of welfare?

Does geography/environment matter?

The world as seen by a development economist

GDP per capita PPP adjusted

GDP per capita as a function of latitude.

Poverty has a latitudinal dependence

(J. Sachs)

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

HDI (1980-2000)

Latitude

(negative indicates South)

HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

Very few outliers

Development curves seem to be bimodal?

Gapminder

Development curves seem to be bimodal?

Gapminder

xt

X t+1

Solow growth

More realistic growth model

xt

X t+1

Stagnation - poverty trap

xc

Growth

xt

X t+1

xc

Growth

Stagnation

Output density and temperature

Nordhaus W D PNAS 2006;103:3510-3517

Output per capita and temperature

What causes thisdevelopment gap?

Can development get started?

Can prosperity be maintained?

How big is the problem?

Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to

continue to prosper, then closing the development

gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic

output.

BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least

40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold.

So, on average, we are 10 times better off

than we were before the industrial revolution.

All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a:

6-8 fold increase economic

for only a 50% population increase

What’s the problem?

If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the

century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??

80 fold

The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development

discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were

essentially limitless relative to population.

Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being

approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

What causes thisdevelopment gap?

Real World

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Per Capita Income

0 .2 .4 .6Disease Burden (Dalys)

GDP

Global disease burden (M. Bonds)

DALY=YYL+YLDYYL years of life lost; YLD years lived with disability

Global distribution of DALYs

0

20

40

60

Latitude (Absolute Value)

0 .2 .4 .6Dalys

Latitude

Most of the the world’s chronically ill people are in the tropics

Malaria Ecology Index

Very low soil fertility

Soil fertility CGAIR

The Poverty Trap A "any self-reinforcing mechanism which

causes poverty to persist.”

In a poor country you are very likely to become ill – poverty leads to illness

Illness prevents you from working and attending school – illness leads to poverty

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

HDI (1980-2000)

Latitude

(negative indicates South)

HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

The worlds climate zones are more or less temperature zones

Climate zones are controlled by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere

Hadley cell

Ferrell cell

Polar cell

58

Rain forests here

Deserts here

Large-scale circulation of the atmosphere “determines” our welfare

Hadley cell: poor

Ferrell cell: wealthy

Polar cell: impossible

60

Climate zones are (almost) rainfall zones

Agro-ecological zones

Does this say that aggressive appropriation of energy assets is needed for growth?

World coal production

World coal proven reserves

Carbon dioxide per capita 2002

Ecological debtors and creditors

>50% in debt

> 50% in credit

Is aggressive appropriation of the biosphere necessary

for development or a consequence of it?

Is wealth or poverty the greatest threat to biodiversity loss?

The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion

along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future

of the planet.

Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to

prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

Is this the only way development can happen?

What is this graph telling us?

Some measure of prosperity

Som

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Ideal green spot

What is this graph telling us?

Some measure of prosperity

Som

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easu

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f us

e of

nat

ural

cap

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What is this graph telling us?

Some measure of prosperity

Som

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“Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?”

Sir Partha Dasgupta