by Arlie M. Skov P.E.CCCOGP Meeting

The Grand, Long Beach, CASeptember 17, 2008

by Arlie M. Skov P.E.CCCOGP Meeting

The Grand, Long Beach, CASeptember 17, 2008

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

Sources of EnergySources of EnergyPrimary

Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas (stored biomass)

Solar: Sunlight, wind, hydropower, biomass,

Nuclear: Geothermal, fission, fusion

Celestial motion: Tides

“Dark Energy”: 72% of universe

Sources of EnergySources of EnergySecondary or Converted (With Losses)

Electricity

Hydrogen

Ethanol, biodiesel, etc.

Muscle power (biomass)

U.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year and Growing at One Quad/YearU.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year and Growing at One Quad/YearOne Quad is One Quadrillion BTU’s (1 x 1015)

Or 160 mn bbls oil (440,000 BOPD)

Or 50 mn tons of coal (3000 trainloads)

Or 12 bn gal. of ethanol (30 mn acres, half of all corn)

Or 37 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants

Or 50 mn cords of wood (annual new growth of 85 mn acres, 1/3 all US forest land)

Or 150,000 1 MW wind turbines

U.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm WorkersU.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm Workers

1650 to 2000

En

ergy

Use

, Fu

els,

Wor

kers

100 100 230 360 340MMBTU per Capita

FuelResidential &

Commercial IndustrialTranspor-

tationElectric

Power Total

Coal 0.1 1.9 - 20.8 22.8

Gas 7.9 8.0 0.7 7.0 23.6

Oil 1.9 9.7 27.6 1.7 39.8

Subtotal Fossil Fuels

9.9 19.6 28.2 28.5 86.2

Nuclear - - - 8.4 8.4

Hydro - - - 2.2 2.5

Biomass 0.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.6

Other 0.1 - - 0.6 0.7

Total 10.6 21.6 28.9 40.6 101.6

U.S. Energy Use – 2007 U.S. Energy Use – 2007 By Fuel, By Sector, in Quads

Fuel Quads Percent

Coal 1.3 6

Gas 0.4 2

Oil 3.7 10

Subtotal Fossil 5.4 7

Nuclear 1.8 28

Hydro (-1.2) (-32)

Subtotal 0.5 16

All Renwables (-0.3) (-5)

All 6.8 7.2

Rate of Change in U.S. Energy UseRate of Change in U.S. Energy UseBy Source, 1997-07

Rate of Change in U.S. Use of Renewable EnergyRate of Change in U.S. Use of Renewable Energy

Source Absolute, Quads Percent

Hydro (-1.18) (-32)

Wood (-0.21) (-9)

Waste (-0.12) (-22)

Ethanol 0.83 344

Geothermal 0.03 9

Solar 0.01 14

Wind 0.29 738

Total Renewables (-0.35) (-6)

By Source, 1997-07

Year$/bbl, Nom.

$/bbl, $2000

US Use, bn bbl GDP, $ tn

Oil, % of GDP

1949 $2 $16 2.1 $1.6 2.0%

1981 $32 $54 5.9 $5.3 5.9%

1986 $13 $8 5.9 $6.3 1.7%

2008 $150 $123 7.6 $12.4 7.5%

Oil Prices, Consumption,and the Economy

Oil Prices, Consumption,and the Economy

A Brief History

Oil Prices and the EconomyOil Prices and the Economy

Period (Years)% Chg.,

Oil priceNo. of

RecessionsAvg.

Severity*Avg. Peak

Inflation

1949-73 (24) (-21%) 5 20 2%

1973-81 (8) 341% 3 36 11%

1986-02 (16) 23% 2 6 4%

2002-07 (5) 158% 0 — —

Duration (months) X Depth (peak GDP drop, %) 1929-33 = 1420

Summary: Status of U.S. Energy UseSummary: Status of U.S. Energy Use

U.S. economy grew using cheap energy

Biggest uses and growth rates

– Electric power, 41 Q, 15%

– Transportation, 29 Q, 16%

Both coal and oil produce CO2

CO2 capture and sequestration?

Growth and Problems

What Must Be DoneWhat Must Be Done

Build new nuclear power plants, recycle spent fuel and alleviate regulatory political restrictions

Use CO2 capture & sequestration for coal-fired plants

Fully develop low-cost intermittent sources: Wind, solar, tides, etc.

Conservation, automatic with price?

Build more dams with pumped storage

Electric Power

What Must Be DoneWhat Must Be Done

Liquid fuel for autos, trucks, tractors, trains, planes and boats is indispensable

Must develop all U.S. oil and gas resources, onshore and offshore

Develop biofuels as competing uses permit

Build Fischer-Tropsch plants with CO2 capture

Longer term: Computer control of traffic, electric power and batteries for land transport

Transportation

Problems with Wind PowerProblems with Wind Power

Intermittency and Predictability, (E=mv3)

Germany, 2004: Wind Power from 7000 Wind Turbines, % of Daily Peak Grid Load, From 0.2-38%!

History of U.S. Nuclear PowerHistory of U.S. Nuclear Power

Number of New Units Annually & Years to Build

How Fast Can We Develop U.S. Energy Sources?How Fast Can We Develop U.S. Energy Sources?

Sources Time Frame Increase Quads/Year

Oil (GOM) 1996-02 750 MBOPD 0.28

Oil (GOM) 2006-10 850 MBOPD 0.48

Nuclear 1973-74 15/year 2.47

China plans 100 new nuclear units

2008-20 8/year 1.37

Biofuels 2006-07 — 0.22

Wind 2006-07 — 0.06

Solar 2006-07 — 0.01

Geothermal 2006-07 — 0.01

Excess regulation

Proliferation of NGO’s

Lawsuits

A pampered public

Obsequious politicians pandering to a pampered public and to NGO’s

Impediments to Rapid Development of New U.S. Energy SourcesImpediments to Rapid Development of New U.S. Energy Sources

Effeteness: Lacking or loss of ability to get things done

Effeteness: Lacking or loss of ability to get things done

Prudhoe Bay Oil Planned 4 years

Actual 8 years

Yucca Mountain

Planned 14 years

Current 33 years

Cost to Date $9 billion

ITER Planned 15 years

Current 32 years

Cost to Date $15 billion

Examples of Legal & Regulatory DelaysExamples of Legal & Regulatory Delays

“Four years to design and build a new Chevrolet? *#}! We won World War II in less time than that!”

- Ross Perot (as member of GM Board)

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

We need both… and quickly.

Alleviate or eliminate barriers to action: legislative, judicial, environmental, partisan, political bickering, NIMBY & BANANA

Quickly develop comprehensive energy plan – not piecemeal, partial, political, or slowly

Implement plan quickly and decisively, before the world economy and ours collapses completely

What About the Federal Energy Bill?What About the Federal Energy Bill?

Mandates 35 mpg for autos (including SUV’s) by 2020, up from 27.5

Mandates 36 bn gal of biofuels per year by 2022, w/ max of 15 bn corn-based ethanol

Today’s use: 140 bn gal gasoline and 6 bn gal biofuels

Signed December 19, 2007

A Brief History of CAFEA Brief History of CAFE

Enacted 1975

Autos standard set at 27.5 MPG

Light trucks (pickups, vans, SUV’s) exempt

Auto mpg 1975-05: up 64% to 22.9 MPG

Light trucks mpg up 54% to 16.2 MPG

Light trucks, as % of automotive fleet, up from 15% to 41%

Corporate Average Fuel Economy

“CAFÉ is like trying to fight obesity by requiring tailors to make only small size clothing.”

- Bob Lutz, Chairman, GM

Correlation Function, EU.S. Energy UseCorrelation Function, EU.S. Energy UseE = Q/P*G (Q=quads, P=population, G=GDP in 1996$)

Ln

E

Lessons from Early U.S. HistoryLessons from Early U.S. History

Prior to 1850, used only “renewable” fuels

From 1800 to 1925, % of US work force on farms dropped from 86% to 19%

Concurrently, “renewable” fuel use dropped from 100% to 10%

Total fuel use jumped 45-fold, from 0.5 quads to 22.4.

by Arlie M. Skov Cosmopolitan Club of Santa Barbara

Elks Lodge, Goleta, CAJuly 17, 2008

by Arlie M. Skov Cosmopolitan Club of Santa Barbara

Elks Lodge, Goleta, CAJuly 17, 2008

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?

U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?