By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th, 2014
Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Design Build Institute
of America
Slide 2
Raging Bull (1980)
Slide 3
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015*
Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are
projections
Slide 4
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries
Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1South
SudanAfrica24.7169BelgiumEurope0.1 2Sierra
LeoneAfrica13.3170DenmarkEurope0.1 3TurkmenistanCentral
Asia12.2171SamoaAsia0.1 4ParaguaySouth
America12.0172SwazilandAfrica0.0 5MongoliaAsia11.8173Czech
RepublicEurope-0.4 6Lao P.D.R.Southeast Asia8.3174CroatiaEastern
Europe-0.6 7LiberiaAfrica8.1175FinlandEurope-0.6
8Timor-LesteSoutheast Asia8.1176BarbadosCaribbean-0.8 9Cte
d'IvoireAfrica8.0177SpainEurope-1.3
10GhanaAfrica7.9178NetherlandsEurope-1.3
11ChinaAsia7.6179Equatorial GuineaAfrica-1.5 12PanamaCentral
America7.5180Islamic Republic of IranMiddle East-1.5
13RwandaAfrica7.5181PortugalEurope-1.8 14Kyrgyz RepublicCentral
Asia7.4182ItalyEurope-1.8 15UzbekistanCentral
Asia7.0183SloveniaEastern Europe-2.6 16CambodiaSoutheast
Asia7.0184San MarinoEurope-3.5
17EthiopiaAfrica7.0185GreeceEurope-4.2
18MozambiqueAfrica7.0186LibyaMiddle East-5.1
19TanzaniaAfrica7.0187CyprusEurope-8.7 20MyanmarSoutheast
Asia6.8188Central African RepublicAfrica-14.5 *2013-2014 data are
projections Source: International Monetary Fund
Slide 5
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2014
Projected Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and
forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is
based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for
GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.
Slide 6
Debt by Selected Country 2012 *IMF Staff Projections Source:
International Monetary Fund
Slide 7
RankExchangeIndex% Change 4Tokyo SENikkei 22556.7%
2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite38.3% 1NYSE GroupDJI A26.5% 6Frankfurt
SEDAX25.5% 8Bolsa De MadridMadrid General21.4% 12Swiss
ExchangeSwiss Market20.2% 5EuronextCAC 4018.0% 10BorsaItalianaFTSE
MIB16.6% 3London SEFTSE 10012.0% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX
Composite9.6% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index2.9% 7Shanghai
SEShanghai Composite-6.8% Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth*
Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013
close.
Slide 8
S&P Select Sector Performance 12-Month Percent Change as of
December 31 st, 2013 Source: Standard & Poors
Slide 9
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008
January 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance S&P
500 index depicted in orange
Source: Moodys Economy Recession Watch as of November 2013
Slide 12
Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2013
Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures
the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas
utilities industries.
Slide 13
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q4* Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis *Advanced (1 st ) Estimate
Slide 14
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 Q4 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Slide 15
Ordinary People (1980)
Slide 16
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2013: +74K Net
Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through December 2013
Slide 17
National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change February
2000 through December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Industry Sector13-Dec13-Nov12-Dec1-net12-net12-%
Construction5833.05849.05711.0-16.0122.02.1% Residential
Building601.2596.4594.94.826.84.7% Nonresidential
Building685.2686.4675.2-1.210.01.5% Heavy and Civil Engineering
Construction885.1893.9884.6-8.80.50.1% Specialty Trade
Contractors3661.13672.63576.5-11.584.62.4%
Slide 18
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector December 2012 v.
December 2013 All told 2,186 K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Slide 19
Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v.
Part-time December 2007 December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -4.33 million
Part-time: +2.63 million
Slide 20
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
December 2012 v. December 2013 Absolute Change MD Total: +36.0K;
+1.4% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% *According to the Local Area
Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 20,044 jobs between
December 2012 and December 2013. Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Slide 21
Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector
Groups (NSA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total: +18.6K; +1.4% MD Total (SA): +36.0K; +1.4% US
Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 22
Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by
Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2012 v. December 2013
Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +25.8K; +0.8% US Total (SA): +2,186K;
+1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 23
Area Office Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie
Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct Vacancy
Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF Avg
Asking Rent $/SF/YR City Center3,170,01116.65%60,360335,742$20.85
Other Baltimore City1,193,58013.82%9,32145,314$20.73 Total
City4,363,59115.67%69,681381,056$20.82 Southern
Metro4,686,45313.86%-26,904289,394$24.62 Northern
Metro5,377,68416.18%54,235-69,160$21.67 Total
Metro10,064,13715.00%27,331220,234$23.04 TOTAL
MARKET14,427,72815.20%97,012601,290$22.37
Slide 24
Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source:
MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct
Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF
Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR Annapolis 731,6557%-50,632-48,480$16.13
Arbutus 386,79315%33,06514,848$7.95 Balt County East
411,32310%10,554111,226$11.46 Baltimore City
995,53914%28,18374,831$7.87 BW Corridor
2,291,1238%100,236306,991$11.90 Carroll 234,12016%7,50024,322$8.76
Harford/ Cecil 475,75117%12,44035,666$10.21 I-83 Corridor
389,1785%-43,12928,891$10.74 Reisterstown Road
605,03617%-12,478-12,977$10.42 Woodlawn/ Catonsville
383,8219%-9,731-46,703$9.87 TOTAL MARKET
6,904,33910%76,008488,615$10.99
Slide 25
Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics 2013 Q4 Source:
MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services AreaAvailable SF Direct
Vacancy Rate % Q4 2013 Net Absorption SF YTD 2013 Net Absorption SF
Avg Asking Rent $/SF/YR Annapolis 790,0106.50%18,312232,328$6.44
Arbutus 1,090,33010.95%36,48952,268$4.63 Balt County East
4,704,77911.95%191,292-91,882$4.11 Baltimore City
6,867,1407.57%242,409-8,134$4.34 BW Corridor
7,819,75211.34%267,567399,917$5.28 Carroll
1,048,3689.70%59,518287,856$4.23 Harford/ Cecil
2,719,8174.08%259,0711,700,435$4.43 I-83 Corridor
396,6696.24%41,205-151,207$7.77 Reisterstown Road
215,3413.07%-4,300-70,999$7.50 Woodlawn/ Catonsville
305,32710.30%-116,190-104,892$4.04 TOTAL MARKET
25,957,5338.52%995,3732,245,690$4.74
Slide 26
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.6% Employment Growth,
U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Percent Change R
ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1 N ORTH D AKOTA 4.017 H
AWAII 1.634 V ERMONT 1.0 2 F LORIDA 2.617 M ICHIGAN 1.634 W EST V
IRGINIA 1.0 3 O REGON 2.417 N ORTH C AROLINA 1.637 I OWA 0.8 4 T
EXAS 2.317 W ISCONSIN 1.637 N EW H AMPSHIRE 0.8 5 D ELAWARE 2.222 M
ARYLAND 1.437 R HODE I SLAND 0.8 6 G EORGIA 2.222 S OUTH D AKOTA
1.437 V IRGINIA 0.8 7 A RIZONA 2.024 I DAHO 1.341 C ONNECTICUT 0.7
7 S OUTH C AROLINA 2.024 M ISSOURI 1.341 K ANSAS 0.7 9 C OLORADO
1.924 W YOMING 1.341 M ONTANA 0.7 9 W ASHINGTON 1.927 O KLAHOMA
1.244 A LABAMA 0.6 11 I NDIANA 1.828 A RKANSAS 1.145 O HIO 0.5 11 N
EVADA 1.828 I LLINOIS 1.146 N EW M EXICO 0.4 13 M ASSACHUSETTS
1.728 M AINE 1.147 K ENTUCKY 0.3 13 M INNESOTA 1.728 N EBRASKA
1.147 N EW J ERSEY 0.3 13 M ISSISSIPPI 1.728 N EW Y ORK 1.147 P
ENNSYLVANIA 0.3 13 U TAH 1.728 T ENNESSEE 1.150 D ISTRICT O F C
OLUMBIA -0.1 17 C ALIFORNIA 1.634 L OUISIANA 1.051 A LASKA -0.7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 27
State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs December 2012 v.
December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction,
Mining, and Logging are included in one industry. STATE Year-over-
year Ch. (000) STATE Year-over- year Ch. (000) STATE Year-over-
year Ch. (000) California28.9Louisiana1.9Nebraska*0.0
Florida28.8Wyoming1.8Idaho-0.1 Texas13.5North Dakota1.6Illinois-0.2
Georgia9.9Hawaii*1.5Delaware*-0.2
Mississippi8.5Arkansas1.4Wisconsin-0.3 New York7.1Iowa1.1Ohio-0.4
Colorado7.0Kansas1.1West Virginia-0.4 Minnesota6.6South
Dakota*1.0Montana-0.5 Connecticut5.8Alaska0.7District of
Columbia*-0.7 Virginia5.4Rhode Island0.7Oklahoma-0.8
Arizona4.9Utah0.7Nevada-0.9 Oregon4.6Vermont0.6Tennessee*-1.5 South
Carolina4.3Alabama0.5Kentucky-2.1 Maryland*4.1Maine0.5New
Jersey-3.3 Missouri3.9New Hampshire0.4North Carolina-3.7
Massachusetts3.5New Mexico0.3Indiana-5.5
Michigan2.0Washington0.3Pennsylvania-7.6
Slide 28
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States
(SA) December 2013 RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE% 1 N ORTH D AKOTA
2.6 17 W EST V IRGINIA 5.9 34 O REGON 7.0 2 N EBRASKA 3.6 19 T EXAS
6.0 36 N EW Y ORK 7.1 2 S OUTH D AKOTA 3.6 20 A LABAMA 6.1 37 O HIO
7.2 4 U TAH 4.1 20 M ARYLAND 6.1 38 N EW J ERSEY 7.3 5 I OWA 4.2 22
C OLORADO 6.2 39 A RKANSAS 7.4 5 V ERMONT 4.2 22 D ELAWARE 6.2 39 C
ONNECTICUT 7.4 7 W YOMING 4.4 22 F LORIDA 6.2 39 G EORGIA 7.4 8 H
AWAII 4.5 22 M AINE 6.2 42 A RIZONA 7.6 9 M INNESOTA 4.6 22 W
ISCONSIN 6.2 43 T ENNESSEE 7.8 10 K ANSAS 4.9 27 A LASKA 6.4 44 K
ENTUCKY 8.0 11 N EW H AMPSHIRE 5.1 27 N EW M EXICO 6.4 44 M
ISSISSIPPI 8.0 12 M ONTANA 5.2 29 S OUTH C AROLINA 6.6 46 D ISTRICT
O F C OLUMBIA 8.1 12 V IRGINIA 5.2 29 W ASHINGTON 6.6 47 C
ALIFORNIA 8.3 14 O KLAHOMA 5.4 31 I NDIANA 6.9 48 M ICHIGAN 8.4 15
I DAHO 5.7 31 N ORTH C AROLINA 6.9 49 I LLINOIS 8.6 15 L OUISIANA
5.7 31 P ENNSYLVANIA 6.9 50 N EVADA 8.8 17 M ISSOURI 5.9 34 M
ASSACHUSETTS 7.0 51 R HODE I SLAND 9.1 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Slide 29
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) November 2013
RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area4.010 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano
Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.3 2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD- WV Metropolitan
Statistical Area4.912 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical
Area6.5 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical
Area5.613 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area6.8 3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area5.614 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island,
NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.9 5
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.715
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area7.0 6 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA5.815 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan
Statistical Area7.0 7 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area6.017 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville,
IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area8.1 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,
AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area6.018 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Metropolitan Statistical Area8.3 9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,
FL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.219 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa
Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area8.5 10 Baltimore-Towson, MD
Metropolitan Statistical Area6.320 Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area9.4 Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 30
MD County Unemployment Rates November 2013
RankJurisdictionURRankJurisdictionUR 1 Howard County4.5 13 Garrett
County6.3 1 Montgomery County4.5 13 Talbot County6.3 3 Calvert
County5.1 15 Baltimore County6.4 3 Frederick County5.1 16 Cecil
County6.6 5 Carroll County5.2 17 Allegany County7.0 5 St. Mary's
County5.2 18 Caroline County7.2 7 Charles County5.3 19 Washington
County7.3 8 Queen Anne's County5.4 20 Wicomico County8.2 8 Anne
Arundel County5.4 21 Dorchester County9.1 10 Harford County5.8 21
Baltimore City9.1 11 Kent County6.2 23 Somerset County9.4 11 Prince
George's County6.2 24 Worcester County14.0 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Slide 31
Field of Dreams (1989)
Slide 32
Source: The American Institute of Architects Architecture
Billings Index January 2008 through November 2013 November, 2013:
49.8
Slide 33
Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place December 2006 through
December2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Dec. 08: $697.4 billion
Dec. 13: $573.1 billion -17.8%
Slide 34
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector
December 2012 v. December 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Slide 35
Inputs to Construction PPI January 2001 December 2013 Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 36
Key Commodity Prices January 2001 December 2013 Source: BLS:
EIA
Slide 37
Construction Materials PPI 12-month % Change as of December
2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Slide 38
The Shining (1980)
Slide 39
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007
through December 2013 Source: Conference Board
Slide 40
Coming to America (1988) Economy gained momentum over the
course of last year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower
gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer
expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing
and autos; The current year is associated with greater certainty
regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy that helps; The
world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2)
Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Healthcare
reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and
Further evidence of Marylands economic and demographic
under-performance.
Slide 41
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