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WNA Market ReportPart 2: Results and Conclusions
Penny Buye
Director, Market Planning and Analysis
Cameco Corporat ion
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2009 WNA Market Report
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Nuclear Generat ing CapacityGWe
0
300
600
900
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2009 Lower 2009 Reference 2009 Upper
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Reference Case Capacity
Net GWe
operatingoperating
seriousserious
emergingemerging
101
122
USA
13 15
Canada
4 10
Latin
America
135 130
Europe
2246
Russia
9
94
China
372
600
Today 2030
69
118
Asia
13 20
E Europe
645
Other
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Reference Case Reactorsoperatingoperating
seriousserious
emergingemerging
696980800069691111ChinaChina
145145580580143143288288435435TotalTotal
55212133881616Eastern EuropeEastern
Europe15154646212136363131RussiaRussia
525273736658582121OtherOther
22202033551818CanadaCanada3333
112112
1111
4444
7979
AsiaAsia
--383811111167672929149149EuropeEurope
2210610631313333104104USAUSA
551111116666Latin AmericaLatin America
ChangeChangeOperatingOperating
20302030ShutShutNewNewOperatingOperating
20092009RegionsRegions
696980800069691111ChinaChina
145145580580143143288288435435TotalTotal
55212133881616Eastern EuropeEastern
Europe15154646212136363131RussiaRussia
525273736658582121OtherOther
22202033551818CanadaCanada3333
112112
1111
4444
7979
AsiaAsia
--383811111167672929149149EuropeEurope
2210610631313333104104USAUSA
551111116666Latin AmericaLatin America
ChangeChangeOperatingOperating
20302030ShutShutNewNewOperatingOperating
20092009RegionsRegions
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Forecasting Demand
Reactor assumpt ions:
Load or capacity factors
Enrichment levels / cycle length / burn ups Tails assay
Reactor lifet imes
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World U3O8 Requirements000s tU
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Lower Reference Upper
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0
40,000
80,000
120,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Lower Reference Upper
World Enrichment Requirements
000 s SWU
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0
30
60
90
120
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Prospective - 60%, 4 year delay
Planned - 70%, 3 year delayUD - 80%
Current - 90%
U3O8 Reference Case Production000s tU
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U3O8 Reference Case Product ion byCountry 000s tU
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Australia Canada Africa US
Kazakhstan Russia Uzbekistan All Other
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Other
RepU/MOXDOE
Western Tails Re-enrichment
Russian HEU
U3O8 Reference Case Secondary Supply000s tU
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0
30
60
90
120
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Prospective - 60%, 4 year delayPlanned - 70%, 3 year delay
UD - 80%SecondaryCurrent - 90%Demand
U3O8 Reference Case Supply000s tU
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0
30
60
90
120
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Potential New Primary Supply
Secondary
Existing Primary Supply
UF6 Supply/Demand
000s tU
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0
40,000
80,000
120,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Potential New Primary Supply
Secondary Supply
Existing Primary Supply
Enrichment Supply/Demand
000 s SWU
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Fabricat ion Supply/Demand
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Conclusions
Nuclear generat ing capacit y will grow
Secondary supplies wi ll cont inue to play an important role
forsome time
Uranium production needs to increase dramat ically f rom
thecurrent level
Conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication sectors have
adequate supplies and can expand when the market demands
