Burda, WyploszMACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA ©EGEA 2006 Capitolo 7 Il tasso di cambio reale

Burda, Wyplosz MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA

©EGEA 2006

Capitolo 7

Il tasso di cambio reale


©EGEA 2006

Fig. 7.01

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Nominal

Real

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Nominal

Real

70

100

130

160

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Nominal

Real90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Nominal

Real

Euro Area

UK

Japan

USA

Nominal and real exchange rates: 1975-2002


©EGEA 2006

Definiamo il tasso di cambio reale

= P/(P*/S) = SP/P*

Dove S è il tasso di cambio nominale, es. dollari per euro

P/(P*/S) espresso in euro

SP/P* espresso in dollari


©EGEA 2006

♦ Se aumenta l’economia evidenzia una perdita di competitività

♦ Se diminuisce l’economia evidenzia un guadagno di competitività


©EGEA 2006

= P/(P*/S) = SP/P*

♦ Se definiamo in termini di variazioni percentuali, allora:

/ = S/S + P/ P - P* /P*

= S/S + - *

Allora se / = 0,

S/S = - *


©EGEA 2006

Realexchange

rate

0Deficit Surplus

Primary current account function

PCA ,( )

Slope: net exports increase when price of domestic goods fall relative to foreign goods (real exchange rate, )

Shift: Essentially changes in business conditions at home and abroad.

Fig. 7.02


©EGEA 2006

♦ Tasso di cambio definito in termini di beni e servizi commerciabili e non commerciabili

= PN /PC , se PC=PC*/S allora

= SPN /PC*

PIL nominale=PCYC + PNYN, se dividiamo per PC

Y = YC + YN o anche

YC = Y - YN


©EGEA 2006

Nontraded goods

Tra

ded

good

s

0

Production possibilities frontier (PPF)

Slope: opportunity cost of nontraded goods.

Curve: increasingly hard to get resources transferred from traded goods to increase nontraded goods.

Shift: changes in labour or capital, changes in productivity.

Fig. 7.03


©EGEA 2006

Real GDP expressed here in units of traded goodT

rade

d go

ods

0 100/B

100 A

Slope: price of nontraded domestic goods relative to traded goods(real exchange rate, )

Fig. 7.04

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

Price of nontraded goods increasesT

rade

d go

ods

0

C

100/B

100 A

100/´

´

Fig. 7.04

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

B´

A´

110/

110

Price linesT

rade

d go

ods

0

C

100/B

100 A

100/´

´

Shift: different values of real GDP

Fig. 7.04

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

Produzione ottimale

Fig. 7.05


©EGEA 2006

Nontraded goods

Tra

ded

good

s

0

Maximum possible value of GDP

Fig. 7.05

P


©EGEA 2006

´

Tra

ded

good

s

0

If relative price of nontraded goods rises...

P

P´

Structure of output is changed, less output of traded goods and more output of nontraded goods.

Why? Producers of nontraded goods can afford to bid away inputs from producers of traded goods.

Fig. 7.05

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

Produzione e consumo ottimali

Fig. 7.07


©EGEA 2006

Nontraded goods

Tra

ded

good

s

0

Optimal production and consumption

B

A

Fig. 7.07


©EGEA 2006

Il tasso di cambio reale di equilibrio

Fig. 7.08


©EGEA 2006

• We pay back outstanding debt by exporting more than we import in the last period.

• We spend down our positive net foreign assets by importing more than we export in the last period.

National intertemporal budget constraint

Fig. 7.08


©EGEA 2006

♦ Vincolo intertemporale:

SPPC1 + SPPC2/(1+r)= -F1

SPPC2 = -(1+r)(F1 + SPPC2) = -F2

F2=posizione netta all’inizio del 2 periodo


©EGEA 2006

Primary current account (period 2)

Real exchange rate (PN/PT)

0

Equilibrium real exchange rate

PCA ,( )

11+r F-( )

11+r F-( )

A´

A

F1 is the net asset position going into the second period.

Fig. 7.08


©EGEA 2006

-50.00%

-45.00%

-40.00%

-35.00%

-30.00%

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

net foreign position, % of GDP (left scale)

real exchange rate, index 1995=100 (right scale)

Fig. 7.09

Net external position and the real exchange rate

Sweden1986-98


©EGEA 2006

The equilibrium real exchange rate andproductivity in the traded goods sector

Fig. 7.10


©EGEA 2006

Nontraded goods

Tra

ded

good

s

0

Equilibrium real exchange rateand productivity in the traded goods sector

Price line

QNT

QT

Fig. 7.10

A


©EGEA 2006

Tra

ded

good

s

0

If productivity increases in the production of traded goods (and nontraded consumption

remains constant)...

A

QNT

QT New price line

BQT´

...appreciation of the real exchange rate

Fig. 7.10

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

Tra

ded

good

s

0

Note: slope of new PPF to the right of B is steeper

A

QNT

QT

BQT´ ...some of the increase in real income will be enjoyed in increase consumption of both goods.

C

Fig. 7.10

Nontraded goods


©EGEA 2006

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

16009

2

93

93

94

94

95

95

96

96

97

97

98

98

99

99

00

00

01

01

02

02

03

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Fig. 7.11

Real exchange rates in transition economies


©EGEA 2006

Europe Asia

AUSTRIA 93.7 CHINA 23.1

BELGIUM 89.2 BANGLADESH 19.6

DENMARK 106.8 INDIA 17.1

FRANCE 90.7 ISRAEL 92.5

GERMANY 95.0 JAPAN 144.8

ICELAND 113.1 PAKISTAN 19.9

IRELAND 92.6 SINGAPORE 80.1

ITALY 81.3

NETHERLANDS 90.1 Africa

NORWAY 112.4

SPAIN 73.8 CHAD 19.1

SWEDEN 104.8 EGYPT 34.4

SWITZERLAND 118.1 MOZAMBIQUE 19.3

U.K. 98.5 NIGERIA 39.3

North America and Oceania Central and South America

CANADA 79.3 BRAZIL 45.1

U.S.A. 100.0 CHILE 44.6

MEXICO 60.8

AUSTRALIA 74.6 PERU 43.5

NEW ZEALAND 66.2 VENEZUELA 69.0

Price level comparisons, 2000 (USA = 100)

Table. 7.01

Documents

Burda, WyploszMACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA ©EGEA 2006 Capitolo 7 Il tasso di cambio reale