BUILDING STRONG®1

Purpose:

Develop tools for 3-7 day forecast of socio-cultural and hydrologic conditions to support small unit early entry and disaster relief operations.

Products:

• Framework for assessing hydrologic impacts on social vulnerability

• Maps showing social vulnerability coupled with water depth and inundation duration

• Data requirements to drive OCONUS application of vulnerability analyses

Payoff:

• Improved soldier preparedness on early entry, both for force projection and for disaster relief

• Deliver capabilities usable by Defense Intelligence Enterprise (DIE), COCOM analysts and planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency, DoS, and USAID.

Water Security

Schedule & Cost

MILESTONES FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Sociocultural vulnerability/resilience analysis & tools

Novel algorithms for hydrologic models

Integrated modeling capability

AT40 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6

3 5

3 5

Status: New

3 5

Total: $2.4M

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Influence ofAl Shebab

MuslimExtremists

FoodAvailability

Sanitation

PotableWater

Irrigation

InfantMortality

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RapidPopulation

GrowthIrrigation

materials andresources

NGOInvolvement

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Rainfall

Food Crises

FoodDistribution

Infrastructure

GovernmentalAgricultural

Policies

DesertEncroachment

ErosionDust

Storms

Flooding

Flooding

Minerals

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Other

HistoricalEnemies

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TerroristsActivities

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Water Security Frameworks

Localized Systems Models

Remote & Historic Data

Localized Hydrological

Models

Localized Indices &Decision Support

BUILDING STRONG®

6. Transition Milestones: Basin to reach scale hydrology capability for ungauged basins

(FY13&14)Coupled hydrology and social-cultural (FY15)

7. Endorsements: BG DeLuca, NAD

8. Other Work Package Attributes:

1. What is the problem?• Small units entering a theater can’t anticipate the hydrologic

conditions they’ll face and how those conditions will translate into social and cultural challenges.

2. What are the barriers to solving this problem?• Can’t yet predict how local populations will respond to flood events

because socio-cultural analyses don’t include hydrologic drivers• Limited access to hydrologic and socio-cultural data needed• Methods for inferring and deriving hydrologic parameters from

remote sources are inadequate. The time to solution and obtaining fine (meter, daily) scale predictions are particular limitations.

3. How will you overcome those barriers?• Develop an analytical framework for coupling short-term weather

forecasts, hydrologic modeling, and localized analysis of social vulnerability/resilience

• Pre-build socio-cultural models for regions of interest to include potential incursions and areas commonly in need of disaster relief

• Develop novel algorithms for remotely sensed-data that enable or improve inference and derivation of necessary hydrological data.

4. What is the capability you are developing?

Software tool to allow analysts to combine pre-built socio-cultural models with short-term weather forecasts. The result is a quick turn planning tool that can be prepared in 1 wk/1 mo describing impacts of hydrologic events upon socio-cultural factors using integrated information analysis, thus giving soldiers a better understanding of• The conditions they’ll face• The needs of the local population• An ability to prioritize needs and better allocate resources

5. Quantitative Metrics:

Measure Current Prog. Obj. Army Obj. TRLHydrologic and OCONUS stimuli in socio-cultural models

Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrologic forcings

Include hydrologic and local-cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest

Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM

3

Coupling of hydrology and socio-cultural models

Not coupled at all. Any assessments done separately.

Couple the two capabilities so that either one could be used to drive the other.

Information synthesis; transform data rapidly into usable knowledge for logistics to culture and economics

3

Large scale weather/hydrology in unguaged basins

1 year to develop a large scale model, poor data quality

1 month to develop a large scale model

Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling

4

Water SecurityStatus: New, LAW revisions