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Building low carbon scenarios for Belgium
International Conference on 2050 Calculator Taipei, TAIWAN, 10-12 February 2015
Cancún Agreements (December 2010):
The Conference of the Parties, … 45. Decides that developed countries should develop low-carbon development strategies or plans;
UN
European Council (February 2011):
“Reaching the EU objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 as agreed in October 2009 will require a revolution in energy systems, which must start now.” European Commission (2011): Low Carbon Economy Roadmap
EU
Federal long-term strategic vision on sustainable developement (2013):
Objective #31. Belgian GHG emissions will be domestically reduced by at least 80 to 95% with respect to their level in 1990.
BE
Low carbon strategies context
Transition management and sustainable development
Modelling 2050
Macroeconomic, competitiveness and employment
impacts
Low carbon scenarios BE 2050
Webtool My 2050 BE (education)
Skills and jobs
Distributive aspects
Financing
Mapping initiatives
Overview of government-led initiatives
3B-fibreglas D. Wertz AC-ANB Willy Verbeke ACV – CSC Philippe Cornélis AGC GiyVanmarcke Agoria Patrick Vandenbossche
Philippe Callewaert Aperam Rudy Lens Arcelor Gent Roland Mortier Architecture et Climat -UCL (Excused) Andre De Herde AWAC André Guns
Georges Liebecq Belgocontrol Liesbeth Peeters Benergie Luc Dedeyne Biogas-E Lieven Demolder Boerenbond Peter Van Bossuyt
Bart Vleeschouwers Bond Beter Leefmilieu Gillabel Jeroen
Jeroen Gillabel Mathias Bienstman Sara Van Dijck
Brick federation Mrs Aerts Bruxelles Mobilité-Mobiel Brussel Philippe Barette Building Performance Institute Europe (BPIE) B. Atanasiu Carmeuse M. Denys CeDuBo/DuWoBo To Simons CEPI Marco Mensink CERATEC Francis Defever Cluster Cap 2020 Bertrand Wart Cobelpa Laurent De Munck
Marc Bailli Cobelpa Laurent De Munck Confédération Construction Wallonie A. Argeles Confédération de la Construction J-P Liebaert CPDT/Lepur-ULG Pierre Paco
Sigrid Reiter CRA Centre wallon de Recherches agronomiques Michael Mathot DeLijn Pieter Claeys Departement Landbouw & Visserij Evelien Decuypere Direction générale de l’agriculture et de l’environnement Wallonne
Joseph Flaba
Edora Frank Gérard Essenscia Else Brouwers
Patrick Degand Tinne Schaerlaekens
Facilitateur Bois-Energie - Secteur public F. Flahaux FEBEM Werner Annaert FEBETRA Philippe Degraef FEBIAC Jean-Paul Heine Fed. Planning Bureau Dominique Gusbin Fedustria G. Colyn
Ingrid Hontis Guy de Muelenaere
Fevia Tom Quintelier Fevia An Nachtergaele FGTB – ABVV Guéric Bosmans FIV Emilie Butaye Fortea Michel Calozet
Sébastien Loiseau FUGEA (fédération éleveurs et agriculteurs) Xavier Delwart FWA Alain Masure Gembloux Bernard Bodson
Marc Aubinet GSV Luc Braet Heidelbergcement G. de Maere HIVA Miet Lamberts Holcim S. Codron IBGE/BIM Grégoire Clerfayt IEW Inter-environnement Wallonie Gaëlle Warnant ILVO Peiren Nico ILVO Peter Demeyer INFRABEL Pascale Heylen Innovatiesteunpunt Boerenbond Bart Vleeschouwers Inter Environnement Wallonie Noé Lecocq
Pierre Courbe Lionel Delvaux
IOK Jonathan De Witte Paul Macken
Knaufinsulation M. Pelzer KOMIMO Miguel Vertriest KU Leuven Erik Mathijs
Stef Proost KULeuven – Afdeling Architectuur, Stedenbouw en RO Frank de Troyer KVBG – ARGB Olivier Thibaut Lhoist Jean Marbehan LNE Tania van Mierlo Logisics in Wallonia Bernard Piette Natpro Maerckx Sophie NMBS Bart Wuyts ODE Francies Van Gijzeghem OSAR Architectenbureau Margo Annemans OVAM Ann Braekevelt
Nico Vanaken Passiefhuisplatform Erwin Mlecnik Petroleum federation Luk Deurinck PMC-BMP Johan Van Der Biest Provinciale Hogeschool Limburg Griet Verbeeck RW - Energie Monique Glineur Shift-N Philippe Vandenbroeck SPF Mobilité – FOD Mobiliteit Laurent Demilie STIB-MIVB Geoffroy de Wilde TEC Nadia Neven TML Griet De Ceuster Transport and env Jos Dings UGent Wim Soetaert Ulg Bernard Tychon
Christine Moureaux Univ. Antwerpen Bruno De Borger Univ. Gent Arnold Janssens
Frank Maes Pascal Boeckx
Univ. Libre Bruxelles Nicolas Rigo Valbiom Jean-François Gosse
Nora Pieret Val-I-Pac Johan Sneyers VEA Wina Roelens
Caroline Vermeulen Lieven Van Lieshout
Vidrala, Saint-Gobain C. Deniet VITO Ina De Vlieger
Nevens Frank Vlaams Instituut Logistiek Mark Coenen Vlaams verkeerscentrum René Grispen Vlaamse Bouwmeester Bart Van Steenwegen VMM Caroline de Geest Vrije Univ. Brussel Filip Descamps
Joeri Van Mierlo Nele Sergeant
WTCB – CSTC Xavier Loncour WWF Sam Vandenplas SPF-FOD Economie Christian Ferdinand Univ. Leuven Dirk Saelens
6
• For the identification of the levers and the definition of their ambition levels (1 to 4)
– Mainly at the expert level (from universities, public administrations, interest groups incl. sectoral federations, consultancy companies, …)
– Thematic workshops with limited number of participants
– Key success factors: careful selection of experts and robust analysis prior to the discussion
• For the definition of the scenarios:
– Mainly stakeholders (Business federations, Trade unions and environmental NGOs)
– Key success factors: balanced package of ‘technical-storylines’
6
Deep involvement of key actors
CORE SCENARIO
(-80%)
-95% GHG REDUCTION SCENARIO
EU INTEGRATION SCENARIO
(-87%)
BEHAVIOUR SCENARIO
(-80%)
Spatial planning, working arrangements, social innovation and networks, reducing meat consumption, …
Transmission and back-up requirements, EU energy
integration, …
Stretch all levers to reach the higher end
of the reduction range
Role of technologies, risks and opportunities, R&D, …
Overall feasibility, high ambition level but not technical
maximum, …
TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO
(-80%)
5 scenarios/storylines built on the basis of stakeholders consultations
4 3 10
Behaviour
1 18
0 1
Reference
26
40
24
20 -80%
124
-14%
Energy
Industry
9 7
-95%
28
-80%
29
-80%
29
132
18
-7%
-88% Transport
Building
Agriculture & others
EU integration
3 6
0
15
2010
22
43
24
30
-95% GHG 1990
143
26
54
20
2 -4
0
25
18
9
9
Technology
4 7 5
0 11
Core
2 10
13
2050
GHG emissions in Belgium (MtCO2e per year)
A set of 5 scenarios reaching 80 to 95% GHG emission reduction
Scenarios allow to build ranges for most indicators
510
283
204
267
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
ea
r
Total final energy demand
135
104
89
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
ea
r
Total electricity demand
Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO)
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Range of the 3 « -80% GHG »low carbon scenarios
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Range of the 3 « -80% GHG »low carbon scenarios
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
11216%
3524%
0%
2000%
4000%
6000%
8000%
10000%
12000%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h/y
r
Transport
Max balanced
Reference scenario
Core
-95% GHG
EU integration
SECTORAL FINDINGS
OVERALL FINDINGS
