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The official publication of the El Paso Association of Builders
Citation preview
Builders utlookyears
E L P A S O
BUILDERSA S S O C I A T I O N O F
B U I L D I N G E L PA S O ’ S F U T U R E S I N C E 194 6www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org
2012/10
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
Published November 07, 2012
FoxNews.com
The economy, according to theRepublican playbook, was supposed tomake Barack Obama a one-termpresident. But with Obama winninganother four years in last night'selection, analysts say he was evidentlyable to mitigate the fallout of a meagerrecovery and even use smallimprovements in recent months to hisadvantage.
"A lot of people thought the economywas the big barrier to Obama's re-election, but they ignored theprospective element of the economy,"offered Darrell West of the BrookingsInstitution. "With the economy gettingbetter, there wasn't the barrier theythought there would be."
And the economy was foremost onvoters' minds -- according to early exitpolling, 61 percent of voters in thebattleground of Pennsylvania said itwas the most important issue affectingtheir vote; in New Hampshire it was 59percent; in hotly contested Ohio, 59percent.
Obama's better-than-expectedshowing in the battleground states --he won virtually every one of themexcept for North Carolina, with Floridastanding as the only contest yet to becalled -- indicated that Americans arewilling to give the president anotherchance to pull the country out of one ofthe worst recessions in recent history.
Some conservatives warned againstbroad-brushing the results, sayingTuesday night that Obama's slimmargin of victory in the popular votewas "no mandate" going forward.
Nevertheless, in an election seasonthat brought the oft-repeated adage"it's the economy, stupid" to newlevels, analysts had predicted thenational unemployment (just under 8percent as of Friday) and slowrecovery numbers would be Obama'sAchilles' heel. Poll after poll hadindicated a sour mood in America withmajorities believing the country was onthe "wrong track."
But a combination of silver-liningeconomic statistics released last Friday(gas below $4 a gallon; 171,000 newjobs), plus positive reporting about thefederal government's response toHurricane Sandy, a lauded "groundgame" and an opponent who wasunable to capitalize on the uncertainfiscal landscape, combined to give thepresident the boost he needed in the11th hour, analysts told FoxNews.com.
"First of all, he ran a very goodcampaign -- and Romney did not run avery good one," said Terry Madonna,who directs the Franklin & MarshallCollege Poll in Pennsylvania. He saidhe personally believes Obama shouldhave lost based on economic factorsalone, but Romney was unable to usethat to the Republicans' advantage.
"President Obama was potentiallythe weakest among working class
voters between Scranton and DesMoines, but Romney did not have theability to really appeal to them," saidMichael Brendan Dougherty, nationalcorrespondent for The AmericanConservative magazine, citingRomney's comments before a privatefundraiser about "the 47 percent" andthe constant "upper-managementcaricature that these voters detest" ascontributing to his lack of more tractionwith this demographic.
"Romney was defined early as awealthy 'one percenter' who didn't careabout the middle class, who ran abusiness that put people out of work,shipped jobs overseas, made millionson it and won't tell us what he did withthe money," said Madonna. Unfairly ornot, it stuck, he added.
This gave Obama some space toappeal to workers via the auto industrybailout and to divorce himself from theroots of the crisis, said Dougherty.
Exit polls Tuesday night indicatedthat many Americans are still unwillingto blame Obama for the crisis and arestill looking back at the last presidentin that regard. For example, 51 percentof Ohio voters polled said George W.Bush was responsible, not Obama, forthe current economic climate.
"I think voters did understand thatObama came in during challengingeconomic circumstances, and perhapsthey don't necessarily see that as anexcuse, but Mitt Romney never soldhimself as a man who understands or
was in solidarity with the people mosthurt from the downturn and economiccrisis," Madonna said.
Madonna said this was a problemfrom the start, that Romney was hardto define. "Was he the moderate Mitt orwas the Tea Party Mitt? The Obamacampaign played early on the flip flops,asking, 'who is he?'"
Meanwhile, Obama has beencredited with having the better groundoperation, put into place during the2008 election. It's been enhanced andexpanded since, concentrating on thestates that required it. According toreports last week, Obama had 800local field offices, compared with 300for Romney, with the difference in theswing states quite "stark," said writerMolly Ball, pointing out that they wereextremely active in registering newvoters and taking advantage ofelaborate data-based direct marketing.
But much of the outcome could havebeen helped along by recent eventsover which neither man had control.
"I think the hurricane was decisive,"West said. "During natural disasterseveryone is a liberal, they wantassistance and they want help andthey look to the federal government.Romney was out of the news for threeor four days and he did not have ananswer when asked about disasterrecovery and the role the federalgovernment should play."
After the press accused Romney of"dodging" questions about the FederalEmergency Management Agency(FEMA), he told reporters that he doesnot plan to abolish FEMA, but wantsthe states to take the lead role indisaster response. With thousands stillwithout power and displaced onTuesday, the recovery has beengrinding along, and the coming daysmay bring more tension and freshcomplaints over how FEMA is handlingthe response, but Obama has alreadybenefited from his opportunity to lookpresidential. Meanwhile, Romney wasforced to tone down the campaignduring a critical week in which he wasactually gaining momentum in thepolls, said Madonna.
Analysts are also pointing toObama's much-needed boost fromRepublican Gov. Chris Christie, whosebear hug to Obama went viral despiteChristie later noting he was stillstrongly in support of Romney.
"The point with Republicans ... isthat it would have been one thing tosay 'thank you, New Jersey is reallygrateful," said Madonna. "It's anotherto thing to have that hug, to use allthose superlatives, walking arm in armwith (Obama) and having that tape runfor a day."
In the end there are no silver bullets,but a lot to consider in the upcomingdays, about what Obama did right, andwhere Romney went wrong, he added.
"The post-mortem will go onendlessly -- they always do."
Analysis:
Hope in economic recovery helped boost Obama
2 Builders Outlook 2012/10
We are in the last quarter of the year, and the market in El Paso has
shown to be remarkably resilient. Markets ahead of us are Houston,
Dallas and San Antonio yet we have been in the race. The Lone Star
State is certainly flexing its housing muscles. A great new home market
is not possible without job growth. Again, Texas is a leader in attracting
new business and creating the type of atmosphere for business to grow
and thrive. While the national economy is still in recovery mode and we
hear rumors of possible QE3, we should give thanks for what we have
here. There have been times in the past when the country was doing
well and Texas was down in the dumps, especially in the late 80’s. We
will take this existing market anytime over those days. Remember that
membership is everyone’s responsibility, do your part to help your
industry.
President’s Message |
El Paso Disposal
772-7495
32012/10 Builders Outlook
Frank
Arroyos
President,
El Paso Association
of Builders
As frustrating as it is to run a
business it is equally frustrating when
you are on the other side of the
counter. Over the years I have become
increasingly unwilling to patronize a
place that gives bad service, inferior
quality, or refuses to acknowledge my
patronage. Everyone reading this
probably has example after example
that they can share but maybe you and
I have had the same experience at the
same places. Not being totally crazy at
this point I won’t name names as far as
businesses, but some experiences
may just remind you of a particular
place.
Scenario number one. I have been eating at a national chain
known for its breakfast offerings,
sometimes slamming you with special
deals. This particular spot has gotten
my business for the better part of two
decades at least once every two
weeks, sometimes more often. The
wait staff knows me well enough to
bring coffee and water nearly as fast as
I sit down. There is a manager at this
restaurant who has seen me frequent
his place for years, yet not once has
this guy come over and asked how my
meal is, or ask how I’m doing. No he
prefers to look at you without looking at
you, getting stulled if you know what I
mean. I had excused him simply
because I thought this guy was a
buffoon and all buffoons need to be
ignored. That is until recently when he
made a disparaging remark to one of
his wait staff about her going to vote.
He proclaimed out loud that he proudly
didn’t vote and he hadn’t voted in
years. Really? And he’s proud of this?
Well I decided this was it. This guy
doesn’t get my money anymore, and
while it’ll be the wait staff that loses the
tips this guy will one day realize that his
customers include those of us who vote
because of a scared trust. His
snubbing his nose at me was one thing,
snubbing those who sacrificed for our
rights is a whole lot different. Not only
am I not going back I won’t ever hold a
meeting there, recommend the place
and will drive right by. I took one other
step. I wrote his district manager to let
him know.
Number two.Working with volunteers has its
rewards and it also brings out some
secrets. Some people love joining for
some reason, and then forget that
joining is the easy part. It’s the
commitment to that volunteerism that is
the real proof of commitment within an
organization. Anyone who has
volunteered to lead an event, put on a
show, or promote the organization
soon realizes that not everyone keeps
their word or commitment. Such is the
case when you see hands go up at the
announcement of something, the
leaders count the hands, and then
when it’s time to put up the hands
disappear. For example the group
decides to put on an event and they
seek commitments of money and time.
In the group individuals raise their
hand. “Oo-oo, I’m in” they say, and
then just a few days from the event
neither the money nor their
commitment is honored placing undue
stress on the entire event and its
coordinators. Unfortunately we all
have those and you probably know a
few yourself. At some point the
question is whether or not there really
is a commitment, and you know not to
count the chicken until the eggs all
hatch.
ThreeMy third scenario is about faith. For
some of us faith is real and a part of our
daily lives. For others the search
continues. I’m not talking about
religion necessarily, I’m talking about
having faith that gets you through the
day and welcomes you in the morning.
It can be the faith of knowing that
tomorrow has promise and despite how
we might mess up today the mere fact
of having another chance is welcomed.
It’s the faith of knowing that you have a
purpose and meaning. It’s faith in
knowing that you can overcome
obstacles, bad calls, or adverse
conditions. It’s faith in knowing that
family and friends really can be there
for you. It’s faith to know that there are
people that really care without
hesitation or payment; without
demands or restitution. Faith to know
your faith really does exist. I can’t
tolerate those who have lost all faith
because of some incident, accident or
failing. Blame has three fingers
pointing back for the two pointing
outward. Faith is knowing that you can
put up with scenario one and two and
still come back for more. Keep the faith
friends.
It really is there for you.
Perspective |
Ray Adauto,Executive
Vice President
EPAB
4 Builders Outlook 2012/10
Customer no longer king but faith still persists
Sparked by rising home pricesacross much of the nation, thehousing recovery is now under way,but fiscal uncertainties and otherchallenges could result in a bumpyride in the coming months, accordingto economists participating inyesterday’s National Association ofHome Builders (NAHB) webinar onthe construction and economicoutlook.
“We’re seeing a more robusthousing sector than many otherparts of the economy,” said NAHBChief Economist David Crowe. “Oneof the reasons is we have finallybegun to see on a national scale thathouse prices are picking up again.”
Crowe cited a number of otherfactors that are carrying the housingmomentum forward. These include:
• Pent-up household formations• Rising consumer confidence• Increasing builder confidence in
all three legs of the industry:remodeling, multifamily andsingle-family construction
• Growing rental demand• More than 100 metros currently
on the NAHB/First AmericanImproving Markets Index
However, Crowe offered severalcautionary factors that continue toput a drag on housing activity at thistime – including builders who areexperiencing difficulties in obtainingproduction credit, qualified buyerswho are unable to obtain mortgageloans, inaccurate appraisals,seriously delinquent mortgages thatare at least 90 days late or inforeclosure, and a limited inventoryof developed lots in certain markets.
Other causes contributing touncertainty in the marketplaceinclude the looming “fiscal cliff” thatwill trigger mandatory budget cutsand tax increases at the beginning ofnext year, pending Dodd-Frank Actregulations that are making financialinstitutions hesitant to lend sincethey don’t know how the new ruleswill affect them, tax reform, and thefuture role of Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac in the nation’s housingfinance system.
NAHB is forecasting a 21 percentincrease in single-family starts thisyear to 528,000 units and a further26 percent climb to 665,000 units in2013.
Multifamily housing starts areexpected to rise 26 percent this yearto 224,000 units and 6 percent in2013 to 238,000 units.
Optimistic Housing OutlookExpressing a more bullish outlook
on housing and economic growth,Mark Zandi, chief economist forMoody’s Analytics, forecast thatGDP growth will range in the 2percent range this year and next and“double that growth closer to 4percent in 2014 and 2015.” At thesame time, he expects job growth togo from two million per year to closerto 3 million in 2014 and 2015.
“A big part of this optimism is the
housing market,” said Zandi. “Iexpect 1.1 million total housingstarts in 2013, 1.7 million to 1.8million in 2014 and over 1.8 million in2015.”
Zandi noted a range ofassumptions behind this rosyforecast, including the expectationthat mortgage rates would remainvery low, the availability of housingcredit will improve as privatemortgage lending begins to pick up,and the job market gains traction aspolicymakers work to resolve fiscalissues, which will ease marketuncertainties.
Specifically, Zandi cited threecritical fiscal policy concerns:
• The fiscal cliff. If policymakers donothing, the combination ofpending tax increases andspending cuts set to take effect inJanuary could produce a fiscaldrag of four percentage points,Zandi said, which would throwthe economy back intorecession. “Hiring will remainweak until this is resolved,” hesaid.
• Treasury debt ceiling. By lateFebruary or early March, theTreasury is expected to hit itsdebt ceiling. A failure to raise theceiling would prevent the U.S.government to borrow to meet itsexisting legal obligations,including the issuance of monthlySocial Security checks.
• Achieve fiscal sustainability.Zandi said that federalgovernment expenditures as apercentage of GDP is 24 percentand revenues is 17 percent. Hesaid this seven-point gap needsto be slashed to closer to twopercentage points of GDP. “Weneed spending cuts and taxrevenues to narrow futuredeficits,” he said. “If we can’t dothat, bad things will happen.”
Acknowledging that thesechallenges won’t be easy, Zandi saidhis forecast is based on theassumption that Democrats andRepublicans will eventually strike adeal on these contentious issuesbecause each side has much tolose. Democrats, he said, don’t wantto see tax cuts for the wealthiestAmericans and Republicans don’tlike the defense cuts mandated bysequestration.
If the nation has the “political will toaddress the fiscal issues in areasonable way, I think we will be offand running,” said Zandi.
A Gradual Climb to NormalDelving into the state statistics
behind the national numbers, RobertDenk, NAHB’s assistant vicepresident for forecasting andanalysis, cited a range of differencesamong the states in the amount ofpain suffered during the recessionand the progress that is being madein recovering.
The hardest hit states -- such asArizona, Florida, California andNevada -- bottomed out the furthestduring the downturn and still havemuch ground to make up.
Meanwhile, several energyproducing states – North Dakota,Texas, Oklahoma, Montana andWyoming – will be back to normal
levels of housing production by theend of 2014.
On a national basis, housing startsare projected to get back to 55percent of normal production by theend of next year and 70 percent ofnormal by the end of 2014, Denksaid.
52012/10 Builders Outlook
Road to RecoveryHome Price Appreciation Helps Housing Move Forward
6 Builders Outlook 2012/10
Sales of newly built, single-family
homes rose 5.7 percent to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units in
September, according to newly
released figures from HUD and the U.S.
Census Bureau. This is the fastest
sales pace recorded since April of 2010.
“Combined with consistent, positive
reports on housing starts, permits,
prices and builder confidence in recent
months, today’s data provides further
confirmation that a gradual but steady
housing recovery is underway across
much of the nation,” said Barry
Rutenberg, chairman of the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
and a home builder from Gainesville,
Fla. “Consumers who have been on the
sidelines during the past few years are
deciding now is the time to go forward
with a new-home purchase, assuming
they can qualify for a good mortgage
under today’s exceedingly stringent
guidelines.”
“New-home sales this year have
consistently and significantly out-paced
their year-ago levels as favorable
interest rates, rising prices and
improving consumer confidence have
driven demand higher,” noted NAHB
Chief Economist David Crowe.
“Meanwhile, despite a small increase in
the inventory of new homes on the
market in September, the number of
completed new homes for sale is now at
an all-time low and the month’s supply
is at its tightest since October 2005.
This is an indication that builders
continue to have a tough time obtaining
construction credit, even as demand for
new homes increases.”
Three out of four regions registered
substantial gains in new-home sales
this September, including the
Northeast’s 16.7 percent increase, the
South’s 16.8 percent increase and the
West’s 3.9 percent increase. The
Midwest was the exception to the rule,
with a 37.3 percent decline.
Meanwhile, the inventory of new
homes for sale inched slightly upward to
a still-low 145,000 units in September,
which is a 4.5-month supply at the
current sales pace.
New-Home Sales Rise 5.7
Percent in September
Real Estate Wealth
Supports Texas
Economy
By David S. Jones, Senior Editor, Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M University
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (RealEstate Center) – Texas is wealthy, andreal estate is a big reason.
Texas’ 2011 real estate wealth wasvalued at $1.6 trillion or $65,432 worth ofreal estate for every Texan, regardless ofage. That’s up 86.7 percent from the$35,055 in 1997.
Dr. Ali Anari, research economist withthe Real Estate Center (REC) at TexasA&M University, monitors the relativeimportance of the state’s real estateindustry and the resulting wealth itcreates. His latest article, “TexasTreasure,” is in the October issue ofTierra Grande magazine, REC’s flagshipperiodical.
Real estate is the state’s secondlargest industry. According to Anari, the2011 Texas real estate industryaccounted for 8.4 percent of the state’sgross domestic product (GDP). Onlymanufacturing at 14.7 percent of GDP islarger.
“Real estate wealth comprises single-family residences, multifamily residences,commercial properties, industrialproperties, mineral real estate, utilitycompany properties, rural acreage andvacant lots,” he said.
More than half (56.3 percent) of thestate’s real estate treasure is in single-family housing. Texas’ 2011 single-familyresidential wealth totaled $945.1 billion.Multifamily residential wealth was $85.1billion. Total 2011 commercial real estatewealth amounted to almost $279 billion.
Also in the 2011 state treasure chest:industrial real estate ($95 billion), mineralreal estate ($106 billion), utility companyproperties ($50 billion), rural acreage($80.3 billion) and vacant lots ($39.5billion).
Including the self-employed, 521,684Texans worked in real estate in 2011,some 3.6 percent of total statewideemployment. The largest proportion ofself-employed Texans are in real estate.In 2010, the four largest Texasmetropolitan areas accounted for amajority (81.4 percent) of real estateemployment.
Anari says that every $1 million ofTexas real estate revenue generates:more than $500,000 in revenueelsewhere in the state economy; 5.2 realestate jobs; and five jobs in otherindustries.
“Taxes paid by the real estate industryaccounted for 14.8 percent of total Texasbusiness taxes in 2009,” said Anari.“Texas’ property tax revenue that yearwas more than $40 billion or 47.8 percentof state tax revenues; school districtslevied $21.7 billion in property taxes, 54.4percent of the total.”
By David S. Jones, Senior Editor, RealEstate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Gushing
Over Oilfield Jobs
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (RealEstate Center) – Texas has been amajor beneficiary of increased oilfieldemployment, and that continues tohave a positive impact on many ofthe state’s real estate markets.
“It’s no secret that the oil and gassector has been one of the few brightspots in the U.S. economy during thepast few years,” said Dr. Harold Hunt,research economist with the RealEstate Center at Texas A&MUniversity.
“A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PWC) report estimates the oil andgas industry supports about twomillion direct and indirect Texas jobsthat power 24 percent of the state’seconomy,” he said. “As a result,Texas residential and commercialreal estate markets are largelyoutperforming those in the rest of thecountry.”
Although employment gains reachwell beyond the oil patch, some ofthe biggest effects have been inareas at the heart of drilling activity.Hunt’s research shows the significantimpact oil and gas activity is havingon some of the most active countiesin the Permian Basin and Eagle Fordand Barnett shale regions, referred toin oilfield jargon as “plays.”
“Negative oil and gas job growth inthe Eagle Ford before 2008 andstrong positive growth since 2010shows the dramatic difference inoilfield activity before and after shalediscoveries,” said Hunt. “The rate ofyear-on-year job growth exceeded 90percent in June 2011.”
Positive oil and gas employment inthe Permian held up much longerthan the other two plays and Texasas a whole, said Hunt. The Permianhas traditionally been an oil play, andoil prices in excess of $100 per barrelthroughout much of 2008 helpedextend positive job growth there.
“The assumption that crude priceswill remain relatively high whilenatural gas prices remain low isdriving a number of significantchanges that will affect Texas realestate,” said Hunt.
Hunt noted the large projectedincreases in a closer and moreaffordable supply of natural gas liquidis driving companies to expandcapacity at their facilities. Othersectors benefitting from low naturalgas prices include electrical powergenerators and manufacturers ofpaper products, plastic products,cement, fertilizer and fabricatedmetals.
Hunt said manufacturing along theTexas-Mexico border may benefit aswell. For example, Brazil’s SantanaTextiles is constructing a $180 milliondenim plant in Edinburg. Companyofficials said low natural gas costsplayed an important role in thedecision to locate in Texas ratherthan Mexico.
PWC reports that inexpensivenatural gas could help U.S.manufacturing save more than $11billion per year and create 500,000new jobs by 2025.
“The lure of cheap natural gas israising expectations for areindustrialization of America,” saidHunt. “Texas is well positioned totake advantage of low-priced energy.This is good news for the state’s realestate markets.”
To read more about Hunt’sresearch, including the effect of rigcounts on private employment, theoutlook for oil and gas prices, andthe benefits of low natural gas prices,read “Crude Awakening; Oil, GasJobs in Play” on the Center’swebsite.
72012/10 Builders Outlook
View more photos on our facebook page: elpasobuildersassociation
Builders utlook on the scene |
City of El Paso Development Services
brought information on the latest infill
proposal to the association members at a
meeting October 31. Matthew McElroy
led the discussion on the proposal and
showed a power point presentation and
took questions from members. The asso-
ciation will have additional suggestions in
upcoming meetings.
City of El Paso
explain infill
program
The EPAB has been trying to offer a concealed handgun license class for a while
now and finally on October 27 the event took place. Five candidates attended the
class given by certified instructor Colonel (retired) Benny Steagall. The Colonel
has 30 years of serving in the US Army and is a pilot on helo’s, from the Apache to
Chinook, and continues to serve as an Army civilian employee at Biggs Field.
Colonel Steagall has taught gun safety and training to a variety of military and civil-
ians including SOCOM and Delta military training and many El Pasoan’s. His
adventure with the group from the EPAB brought all his talents to the challenge.
The Course consisted of the required Texas mandated eight hours classroom plus
proficiency at the range. The students all qualified the written exam and the shoot-
ing proficiency test with flying colors. As one participant said “it was a long time
coming but this group effort was the way to go.” All five candidates must now pass
a background check through the Texas DPS. Future classes depend on the
requests from members. All in all the time spent learning was quite an experience
and something the association has had numerous requests for.
Members complete Certified Handgun
License training
2012/10
UTEP Men’s basketball head coach Tim Floyd
told a sold out crowd at the General Meeting that
this year’s team would be challenged and fun to
watch. The crowd was amused with those con-
trasting statements since it sounded familiar, just
like what Coach Haskins would have said a
dozen years ago. “I have to tell you that Coach
Floyd reminds me so much of Haskins, down to
his quick wit and stories,” said Sam
Shallenberger, a friend of both. The crowd was
very enthusiastic about having Floyd visit and no
one more so than Edgar Montiel. “Coach and I
fished at his Mississippi home just this summer,”
Montiel told the Outlook. “We had a great time
and I have to tell you that Coach is genuine,” he
continued. The meeting was hosted by Windsor
Door LLC, Inc..
General meeting features
UTEP’s Floyd
List of Improving
Housing Markets
Expands to 125 in
November
The number of U.S. housing markets
showing consistent improvement in
three key measures of strength
expanded by 22 in November to a total
of 125, according to the National
Association of Home Builders/First
American Improving Markets Index
(IMI), released today. This marks a third
consecutive monthly gain for the index,
which now includes representatives
from across 38 states as well as the
District of Columbia.
The index identifies metropolitan
areas that have shown improvement
from their respective troughs in housing
permits, employment and house prices
for at least six consecutive months.
Markets added to the list in November
include such geographically diverse
locations as San Diego, Calif.;
Gainesville, Ga.; Omaha, Neb.;
Louisville, Ky.; and Charlotte, N.C.
“Not only did 22 additional markets
qualify for the improving list in
November, but the geographic
distribution of included metros
expanded from 33 states to 38 (plus the
District of Columbia), while 97 out of 103
markets retained their spots on the list
from the previous month,” observed
Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the
National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) and a home builder from
Gainesville, Fla. “This shows that a
housing recovery is firmly taking root
and helping generate needed jobs and
economic growth across much of the
country -- though we know that this
expansion could be even stronger were
it not for ongoing challenges including
overly tight lending conditions and
difficult appraisals.”
“The solid increase in the number of
improving housing markets this month
illustrates the degree to which the
housing recovery has gained
momentum since we initiated the IMI
last year,” noted NAHB Chief Economist
David Crowe. “Compared to the 30
markets that made the list as of
November 2011, we now have 125,
which is about one-third of all the
markets surveyed for this index.”
“This new high point for the Improving
Markets Index provides the latest
evidence that housing has turned a
corner due to rising demand from
consumers who are increasingly
confident about the direction of local
home values,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer,
vice chairman of First American Title
Insurance Company.
The IMI is designed to track housing
markets throughout the country that are
showing signs of improving economic
health. The index measures three sets
of independent monthly data to get a
mark on the top improving Metropolitan
Statistical Areas. The three indicators
that are analyzed are employment
growth from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, housing price appreciation
from Freddie Mac and single-family
housing permit growth from the U.S.
Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest
available data from these sources to
generate a list of improving markets. A
metropolitan area must see
improvement in all three measures for at
least six consecutive months following
those measures’ respective troughs
before being included on the improving
markets list.
A complete list of all 125 metropolitan
areas currently on the IMI, and separate
breakouts of metros newly added to or
dropped from the list in November, is
available at www.nahb.org/imi
10 Builders Outlook 2012/10
112012/10 Builders Outlook
For over a century, the energyindustry has been a tremendoussource of jobs, and a major driverof economic growth in Texas. Ithas retained its place in the Texaseconomy because of continuedinnovation, which has resulted inenergy production evolving fromsimply drilling a hole in the groundand watching the oil gush towardsthe sky to a very complex operationthat utilizes advanced technologiesto extract each barrel from theground. This continued innovationhas enabled areas of matureenergy production to have a newlease on life and continueproducing energy - and preservingjobs – that would otherwise nothave been produced. It has alsoenabled production in areas that
you simply couldn’t produceenergy from previously.
One of the most significantinnovations in energy productionhas been hydraulic fracturing,commonly referred to as“fracking.” Fracking is a processthat is used to release oil or naturalgas by cracking underground rockformations, and provides access tooil and gas in areas that do noteasily produce them or whereconventional methods havehistorically failed. It’s been in usesince the 1940s, and recenttechnological advancements indrilling technology have caused itto become one of the primarymethods for retrieving natural gas– particularly within the PermianBasin and Eagle Ford Shale herein Texas.
The result of this technologicalinnovation has been lowered costsfor American families, the creationof good-paying American jobs, andprogress towards the goal ofAmerican energy independence.When it comes to lowering costsfor American families, according toa report issued by the YaleGraduates Energy Study Group,
increased shale gas productionenabled consumers to enjoy over$100 billion in savings on the priceof goods and services in 2010alone. On the job creation front,Moody’s Analytics recentlyestimated that shale gasproduction has created one millionjobs since 2002. And, furtheringthe goal of American energyindependence, Citigroupeconomists and analysts issued areport estimating that frackingcould cause U.S. oil production toclimb by more than a third by2015.
One million jobs, over $100billion in savings, and oilproduction increased by a thirdsounds like results of a successfulenergy policy to most Americans,but not to the ObamaAdministration and theirenvironmental extremist allies.Rather than embrace this source ofenhanced energy production andjob creation here in the UnitedStates and Texas, PresidentObama’s environmental extremistallies want a wholesale federaltakeover of fracking regulations,replacing the conventional state
regulators, and want to shut downfracking in the name of watercontamination prevention.However, there is simply not thejustification for such a takeover.The current system of letting statesregulate fracking is working,despite the rhetoric one mighthear. Even President Obama’sEnvironmental Protection AgencyDirector Lisa Jackson agrees, asshe testified in a May 2011hearing in the United State Senatethat she wasn’t aware, “of anyproven case where the frackingprocess itself affected water.”
As the representative of Texas’23rd District, I want to see morejobs and more energy productioncome to the Permian Basin andEagle Ford Shale. That’s why I’vefought so hard against the ObamaAdministration’s anti-Americanenergy agenda. We need topursue proven energy policies thatallow Texas to continue producingenergy and creating jobs, not thosethat gamble with taxpayer moneyon “investments” in companies likeSolyndra.
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Guest Column
Francisco CansecoTexas Congressman
In the weeks leading up to thenational elections, supporters andopponents of the Affordable Care Act(ACA) have contributed new researchand analysis to support theirrespective points of view on healthcare reform. A Commonwealth Fundstudy documents a 10-year slide inhealth coverage provided by smallbusinesses – 58 percent of smallbusiness workers were affordedaccess to coverage in 2003 vs. 49percent in 2010. However, theCommonwealth Fund argues that theACA’s tax credits for small businessesand subsidies for low-income workerswill help offset the trend. In contrast,Forbes reviewed available research toshow how the ACA will impactconsumers in eight key swing states –such as Minnesota, Ohio, andWisconsin. The articles conclude thatthe ACA will drive up individual healthcare premiums significantly as of2014.
STATeS CALIFORNIA: The California Health
Insurance Exchange received 33letters of Intent from health insurerswho are interested in participating inboth the Small Business HealthOptions Program (SHOP) andindividual exchange, includingcommercial carriers as well asMedicaid managed care plans. Fivebidders proposed statewide coverage,and there were no fewer than sixbidders for each area of California.Eight carriers bid for the SHOPexchange in the metropolitan areas,with no less than four carriers in the
most rural part of the state. Staffpublicly acknowledged that AnthemBlue Cross, Kaiser Foundation HealthPlan, Blue Shield of California andHealth Net have all submitted non-binding letters. Other carriersrequested that they not be disclosedpublicly at this time.
CONNECTICUT: The Office ofHealth Reform and Innovation hasproposed rules to implement thestate's all-payer claims database(APCD). The rules include reportingrequirements, data element standardsand timelines for the reportingprocess. A hearing is scheduled forNovember 19, and public commentswill be accepted until November 29.Regulations will likely be finalized andadopted by the end of February 2013.The state received about $6.6 millionin funding for the APCD from Healthand Human Services (HHS) as part ofthe state’s Level Two exchange grant.The funding will finance the APCDthrough 2014. The state expects tobegin hiring staff, including anexecutive director, in December andissue an RFP for a data managementvendor in early 2013.
ILLINOIS: Voters this week arebeing asked to amend the stateconstitution by approving a proposedamendment that would require asupermajority 3/5 vote of the GeneralAssembly or local unit of governmentto authorize pension or retirementbenefit increases and a 2/3 vote tooverride a gubernatorial veto. Undercurrent law, it takes a simple majorityvote in the House and Senate to
increase pension and retirementbenefits (including medical benefits)for workers and a 3/5 majority tooverride the governor. This changewould impact both state governmentand local units of government, such asschool districts, cities, and counties.
MICHIGAN: Two bills that wouldtransform Blue Cross Blue Shield ofMichigan (BCBSM) into a nonprofitmutual disability insurance companyowned by policyholders and regulatedby the same rules that govern otherinsurers under the ACA are movingquickly. The Senate passedamendments to the original bills onOctober 17, and hearings will takeplace in the House November 13-19.The administration wants the House toact before year-end. Proposed by thegovernor in early September, the billswould end BCBSM’s status as thestate’s “insurer of last resort” and beoperated under a separate statuteallowing both the attorney general andInsurance Department to oversee theiroperations. As part of the governor’sproposal, BCBSM would be requiredto make a contribution of $1.5 billionover a period of 18 years to the healthof Michigan’s people. The bills are ofgreat concern to consumer groups, theAttorney General’s Office and insurers.With BCBSM maintaining 70 percentmarket-share, Aetna is working toensure the final law includes a ban onthe use of "most-favored nation"clauses in provider contracts to helpmake the market more competitive.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: TheDepartment of Insurance brought
together health plans last week todiscuss issues related to ACAimplementation and informed themthat the state does not intend to makea declaration to HHS by the November16 deadline regarding a federal-stateexchange partnership. The DOI alsoreviewed other areas of the law thatrequire state and federal law to bealigned. The Department intends tosubmit legislation for the 2013legislative session to implement ACAmarket reform provisions related torating changes, open enrollment andconformance with essential healthbenefits categories of coverage.
VERMONT: In a memo issued lastweek to over 2,100 state employees,Governor Peter Shumlin isencouraging employees to enroll theirchildren in the state’s CHIP programand to drop them from their stateemployee health plan coverage. Thestate has estimated that if half of theeligible employees took this option, thestate would save a minimum of $5million. Vermont is not the only stateencouraging state employees to enrolltheir children in CHIP to garner thehigher reimbursement rates. Thehealth insurance exchange modelbeing built will be the only place whereindividuals and small businesses willbe able to acquire health insurancestarting in 2014.
ResourcesHealth Reform ConnectionAmerica's Health Insurance PlansAetna 2011 Annual Report
The U.S. real estate recovery that’sgained strength this year faces asetback from flooding and propertydamage inflicted by Hurricane Sandy,the biggest tropical gale to hit theAtlantic seaboard.
The storm battered homes inEastern coastal states that account forabout one out of every five U.S. realestate sales and threatened inlandareas with flooding and blackouts.Lenders put transactions on hold andcompanies like Coastline Realty inCape May, New Jersey, pulled in theirfor-sale signs to prevent the wind fromturning them into projectiles.
“We’ll definitely see lower numbersin new sales and new applications,”said David Stevens, president of theMortgage Bankers Association. “Wedo expect to see lenders put a freeze
on properties across the northeast onthe shoreline until they can beinspected and assessed for damages.”
Sandy, about 1,000 miles wide,prompted warnings of life- threateningstorm surges from Virginia toMassachusetts, emptied the streets ofthe nation’s largest cities, paralyzedmass- transit systems and lashed thearea with gales, rain and even snow.U.S. airlines grounded 9,500 flights,U.S. stock trading is closed throughtoday in the first back-to-backshutdowns for weather since 1888.Losses may total as much as $20billion, with $5 billion to $10 billion ofthat insured, according to Eqecat Inc.,an Oakland, California-based providerof catastrophic risk models.
Property DamageAlmost $88 billion of homes in seven
states are at risk of damage, accordingto a report by CoreLogic Inc., amortgage software and data firm inIrvine, California. New York has $35.1billion of property in harm’s way, NewJersey has $22.6 billion, Virginia has$11.3 billion, and Massachusetts has$7.8 billion. Maryland, Delaware andPennsylvania have a combined $11billion of property at risk, CoreLogicsaid.
A fire tore through more than 50homes in a Queens beach communitythat suffered heavy flooding, the NewYork Times reported. On 57th Street inManhattan, a crane on a 90-storyresidential building under constructionpartially collapsed and was danglingover the street. The storm hasaccounted for 16 deaths, according tothe Associated Press.
12 Builders Outlook 2012/8
Guest Advice
Joe Bernal
Employee Benefits of El Paso
HeALTHCARe ReFORM:
Plan will drive up cost of care as early as 2014
By Kathleen M. Howley, JohnGittelsohn, and Heather Perlberg Bloomberg News
Storm Sandy to severely affect housing market say experts
The El Paso association of Builders
announced the slate of directors and
officers for 2013. In announcing the
nominations President frank arroyos
praised the selection and offered
encouragement to the members. “as
my term comes to an end soon as with
any outgoing President the responsibili-
ty of placing new board members is of
paramount concern.” “The executive
nominations committee has taken this
task to heart and is recommending an
excellent crop of new board members
and endorsing those who have another
year left on their term,” arroyos
explained. “We are particularly proud
that we have not run into the problem
that has plagued other local and state
groups of having to “recycle” presidents
because no new candidate stepped up,”
he continued. “We are very proud to
have Edgar Montiel step up and offer
his leadership,” frank continued.
The nominations committee has pro-
posed Edgar Montiel from Palo Verde
Homes as the next member on the
executive ladder. Edgar will serve as
Secretary Treasurer for the Edmundo
Dena administration. frank Torres from
GMf Homes will serve as Vice
President. Current President frank
arroyos announced that his business
will take him into South Texas more this
coming year and he will not be able to
fully serve as immediate Past President.
Greg Bowling, currently serving that
capacity will continue for one more year.
The following is the list of candidates
that will be voted on this November and
will be installed on December 6 at the
El Paso Country Club. Tickets for the
installation are on sale now.
Proposed 2013 El PasoAssociation of Builders
Board of Directors and Officers areas follows:
Executive Board 2013President:
Edmundo Dena, (accent Homes)
Vice President:
frank Torres (GMf Homes)
Immediate Past President:
Greg Bowling (Tropicana Homes)
associates Chair:
Sam Shallenberger (Western Wholesale
Supply, Inc.)
Sec/Treasurer: Edgar Montiel
Executive Officer: Ray adauto
Board of DirectorsJuanita Garcia (Icon Custom Homes)
Samira Gonzalez (Edwards Homes)
Walter Lujan (Dawco Construction) *
Carlos Villalobos (Pointe Homes) *
Don Rassette (Rassette Homes) *
Beverly Clevenger (automated Division
6) * frank Spencer (aztec
Contractors) *
Kathy Parry (Hunt Communities) *
Sal Masoud (Del Rio)
Edgar Garcia (Bella Vista Custom
Homes) *
Robert L. foster (South West Land)*
Leti Navarette (Custom Dream Homes)
*
Linda Troncoso (TR-Engineering)
Lance VanDeman (JDW) *
John Chaney (Passage Supply)
Joe Bernal (Bernal Insurance)
Ken Wade (El Paso Building
Materials)
Ruben Orquiz (MTI Ready Mix)
Kathy Carrillo (Pioneer Bank) *
Henry Tinajero (Bank of the West)
Paul Zacour (Zacour & assoc.)
Chuck Gabriel (Carpets West)*
Ted Escobedo (Snappy Publishing)*
Women’s Council:
Lorraine Huit (Cardel Design)
Green Council:
Javier Ruiz (Senercon)
*indicates new 2 year term
Membership News
Thanks to our OCTOBER
SODA SPONSOR:Del Rio Engineering
SODA SPONSOR
years
E L PA S o
BUILDERSA S S o C I A T I o n o F
B U I L D I N G E L PA S O ’ S F U T U R E S I N C E 194 6
11395 James Watt, Suite A-11 79936915-633-8002
132012/10 Builders Outlook
www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org
UPCOMING EVENTS |
RENEWALS |Bella Homes
Boise Cascade
Carpet Warehouse
Cimmaron Mortgage Capital
CMf Enterprises
Jack White Building Specialties
JB Laminates
Loretta Blankenship
McCoys Building Supplies
Mountain Vista Realty
Pointe Homes/Lupo
Development Corp.
Stewart Title Guaranty
Sun City Spray foam
The Heritage Group
Time Warner Cable
Tropicana Homes
Tropicana Properties
Villagi Homes LLC
NOVEMBER 12IMG CUP
Sun Country PGa Golf
Tournament
Painted Dunes Golf
Course
NOVEMBER 14BOaRD MEETING
12 Noon
EPaB Office
DECEMBER 6EPaB GaLa
INSTaLLaTION
aND aWaRDS
BaNQUET
El Paso Country Club
Association names upcoming Board and Officers for 2013
One thing about our Associate
members that really impresses me
is the support they give to the
association. Throughout the
history of the Association we’ve
had members who really take on
the responsibility of helping events,
sponsoring or advertising with the
association. Such is the case with
the Pro Am golf tournament. I want
to thank all of you that have given
us support this year. It hasn’t been
easy and sometimes it appears
that we are always asking for
something. Truth of the matter is
that nowhere else can you as a
supplier, vendor or builder member
do more to ensure that our
message gets out. That message
is about new home construction
and its importance to the local
economy. We as a trade group
provide jobs, provide a great tax
base for government and provide
for so many families. We have this
association to remind the public
and politicians of that. So next time
we ask you to participate step up
like those fellow members who
you’ll see advertising or playing in
our Pro Am. These are folks who
take membership to that next level.
Thank you all for doing so.
Showroom: 2131 Missouri
915 • 533 • 6045 fax • 533• 6096
Thomas R. Brown, Owner
14 Builders Outlook 2012/10
Sam ShallenbergerWestern Wholesale Supply
Associates CouncilAssociates move forward and support EPAB
Jaime’sCourier
Service,Inc.
Jaime’sCourier
Service,Inc.
915-549-4533 or
915-478-2404
Bonded, insured foryour peace of mind.
� execuTive oFFicerS
Frank Arroyos - President
Cisco Homes
edmundo Dena - vice President
Accent Homes
Frank Torres - Secretary/Treasurer
GMF Custom Homes
Sam Shallenberger - Associates council
Western Wholesale Supply
Greg Bowling - immediate Past President
Tropicana Homes
ray Adauto - executive vice President
El Paso Association of Builders
� couNciL/commiTTee cHAirS
Affordable Builders council
Bobby Bowling IV
Associates council
Sam Shallenberger
Build PAc
Randy Bowling
Desert Green Building council
Javier Ruiz
industry Promotions
Greg Bowling
Land use council
Vacant
Young Designer Award
John Chaney
remodelers council
Rudy Guel
membership Drive
Mike Santamaria
Finance committee
Kathy Carrillo
education committee
Frank Spencer
� ADviSorY To THe BoArD
J. Crawford Kerr, Attorney, Firth, Johnston
& Martinez
� BoArD oF DirecTorS
Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance
Doug Borrett, Karam Co.
Kathy Carrillo, Pioneer Bank
John Chaney, Passage Supply
Sergio Cuartas, BIC Homes
Ted Escobedo,Snappy Publishing
Art Garcia, El Paso Door
Juanita Garcia, ICON Custom Home Builders,LLC
Samira Gonzalez, Edwards Homes
Lorraine Huit, Cardel Design Group
Walter Lujan, Dawco Home Builders
Sal Masoud, Del Rio Engineering
Bruce Meyer, JDW Insurance
Edgar Montiel, Palo Verde Homes
Kathy Parry, Hunt Communities
Javier Ruiz, Senercon & Border Solar
Frank Spencer, Aztec Contractors
Henry Tinajero, WestStar Bank
Linda Troncoso, TRE & Associates
Ken Wade, El Paso Building Materials
Paul Zacour, Zacour & Associates
2011 Builder member of The Year
Greg Bowling
Tropicana Homes
20110 Pat cox Award
Kathy Parry
Hunt Communities
2011 Associate of The Year
Sam Shallenberger
Western Wholesale Supply
John Schatzman Award
Bob Bowling III
Tropicana Homes
ePAB Special Award
Rudy Guel
Guel Construction
Honorary Life members
Brad Roe
Cliff Anthes
Wayne Grinnell
Chester Lovelady
Don Henderson
Anna Gil
Past Presidents
committed to Serve
ePAB mission Statement:
The El Paso Association of Builders is a
federated professional organization representing
the home building industry, committed to
enhancing the quality of life in our community by
providing affordable homes of excellence and
value.
The El Paso Association of Builders is a
501C(6) trade organization.
© 2012 Builder’s Outlook
is published and distributed for the
El Paso Association of Builders
by Snappy Publishing
240 Thunderbird • Suite C
El Paso • Texas • 79912 915-820-2800
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
Kelly Sorenson
Mark Dyer
Mike Santamaria
John Cullers
Randy Bowling
Doug Schwartz
Robert Baeza
Bobby Bowling, IV
Rudy Guel
Anna Gil
Bradley Roe
Bob Bowling, III
E. H. Baeza
Hershel Stringfield
� TAB STATe DirecTorS
Doug Borrett, Karam Co., Life Director
Randy Bowling, Tropicana Homes
� NATioNAL DirecTorS
Bobby Bowling IV.
Demetrio Jimenez
NATioNAL ASSociATioN oF
Home BuiLDerS
(800) 368-5242
TexAS ASSociATioN oF
BuiLDerS
(800)252-3625
years
E L P A S O
BUILDERSA S S O C I A T I O N O F
B U I L D I N G E L PA S O ’ S F U T U R E S I N C E 194 6
www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org
Builders utlook