16
7/21/2019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1/16 President Obama has signed into law a $622 billion tax package that permanently renews certain NAHB housing tax priorities while providing a two-year retroactive renewal for others through the end of tax year 2016. Congress regularly acts annually to extend scores of temporary tax provisions known as tax extenders that are often renewed for only one or two years at a time. This legislation would make many temporary provisions permanent. The tax extenders package includes these key housing provisions Builders Outlook Major Victory • Low Income Housing Tax Credit. The bill permanently sets the credit rate at 9% for housing credits used for financing new construction and substantial rehabilitation. When credit rates decline, less equity is available for developments, so keeping a permanent minimum 9% floor on federal housing credits is a significant victory for affordable housing. This will provide all developers with much- needed certainty when planning future projects. NAHB has been working for years to make the 9% minimum credit rate floor permanent. Big Wins Section 179 Expensing. The tax package permanently extends the small business expensing limitation and phase-out amounts for Section 179. Current law allows small business to immediately write off $25,000 of qualifying property, which is phased out for total investments above $200,000. The bill increases this limit to $500,000 for qualified property with a $2 million phase-out and indexes both for inflation. • Residential Energy Efficiency Tax Credit (25D). Extends through 2021 Section 25D, which provides tax incentives for installing clean energy technologies such as solar or geothermal. 25D provides a 30% tax credit to consumers for installing qualified power production property. The credit is also uncapped, so all qualifying expenses may be claimed. The bill will extend but phase out the credit for solar starting in 2020, when the credit will fall to 26%, dropping to 22% in 2021, before expiring in 2022. Wins Credit for Energy-Efficient New Homes (45L). This provides builders a $2,000 tax credit for exceeding energy standards by 50%. The base energy code is the 2006 International Energy Conservation Code plus supplements. The 45L tax credit is extended through 2016 and can be claimed by both for-sale and for-rent homes of three stories or less, providing the developer has a tax basis in the property at the time of development. Section 45L is expected to save home builders $361 million for tax year 2015. Credit for Non-business Energy Property (25C): This provision extends through 2016 the 25C tax credit, which provides a credit up to $500 for consumers installing qualified energy-efficient upgrades. The provision updates the baseline for qualifying components. Section 25C is expected to save home owners who remodel $826 million for tax year 2015. • Bonus Depreciation. Originally intended as a short-term stimulus item, the bill extends but phases out the bonus depreciation for property acquired and placed in service during 2015 through 2019. The bonus depreciation percentage is 50% for property placed in service in 2015, 2016 and 2017, dropping to 40% in 2018 and 30% in 2019. Bonus depreciation applies to qualified property with a recovery period of 20 years or less. • Mortgage Insurance Premiums. This provision allows taxpayers, subject to an income cap beginning at $100,000, to deduct premiums paid for private mortgage insurance and FHA/RHA/VA insurance premiums. The deduction of mortgage insurance premiums is extended through 2016 and is expected to save home owners $1.3 billion for tax year 2015. • Mortgage Debt Forgiveness. This provision would eliminate any taxes home owners might face when renegotiating the terms of a home loan when banks forgive a portion of the outstanding mortgage, particularly in connection with short sales. This applies only to principal residences and through the 2016 calendar year. The exclusion is also modified to debt discharged in 2017 if the discharge is pursuant to a written agreement entered into in 2016. This extension is expected to save home owners $3.3 billion for tax year 2015. • Deduction for Energy-Efficient Commercial Buildings (179D). This provision extends through 2016 a deduction up to $1.80 per square foot for commercial buildings, including multifamily buildings built under the commercial code that meet the baseline ASHRAE 2007 standard. NAHB provides this information for general guidance only. This information does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind nor should it be construed as such. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action on this information, you should consult a qualified professional adviser to whom you have provided all of the facts applicable to your particular situation or question. None of this tax information is intended to be used nor can it be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose. The installation of officers and board for 2016 took place at the Marriott Hotel on Friday December 11. A festive crowd of nearly 300 enjoyed the dinner, the drinks, and the presentation of awards before the business got started. “I’m so grateful to the members for coming out to this installation,” said incoming President Carlos Villalobos. “The setting, the food, the whole thing is really great. I hope I don’t mess up my talk,” Villalobos told the Outlook prior to the installation of officers. This year we were able to say thanks to many who have supported the association over the year and to acknowledge those who passed during the year. We remembered a past president, Zeke Zar, and a great supporter associate member Jack White, both who did much for the association and will be missed. The event also honored those who did some special little extra such as our advertisers who helped keep the association afloat in some difficult times. The event was opened by incoming board member Gregg Davis with a quick but beautiful invocation. He was followed by patriot John Chaney as he led the group in the Pledge of Allegiance. Our event couldn’t have happened without the support of partners. We’d like to thank our Diamond Partners: Pointe Homes; Foxworth Galbraith; JOBE; HUB International; Century 21 APD; BMC Select; KB Realty YREE; MTI Ready Mix; and GECU. These folks were honored with their Diamond Awards. Our next level of partnerships were our Platinum Partners: HUNT; Stewart Title of El Paso; and Pioneer Bank. And finally our Gold Partners: Rocky Mountain Mortgage; 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty; and Interceramic Tile and Stone Gallery. Our sincere thanks to all these partners for their support of the installation. The rest of the story & photos page 8 National, State & Local Building Industry News 2015: Issue 12 www.elpasobuilders.com Tax Extenders Package Includes Key NAHB Priorities EPAB Installs New officers

Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Citation preview

Page 1: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 116

President Obama has signed into law a $622 billion tax package

that permanently renews certain NAHB housing tax priorities

while providing a two-year retroactive renewal for others through

the end of tax year 2016

Congress regularly acts annually to extend scores of temporary

tax provisions known as tax extenders that are often renewed foronly one or two years at a time This legislation would make many

temporary provisions permanent

The tax extenders package includes these key housing

provisions

Builders

Outlook

Major Victorybull Low Income Housing Tax Credit The

bill permanently sets the credit rate at9 for housing credits used forfinancing new construction andsubstantial rehabilitation When creditrates decline less equity is availablefor developments so keeping a

permanent minimum 9 floor onfederal housing credits is a significantvictory for affordable housing This willprovide all developers with much-needed certainty when planning futureprojects NAHB has been working foryears to make the 9 minimum creditrate floor permanent

Big Winsbull Section 179 Expensing The tax

package permanently extends thesmall business expensing limitationand phase-out amounts for Section179 Current law allows smallbusiness to immediately write off$25000 of qualifying property whichis phased out for total investmentsabove $200000 The bill increases

this limit to $500000 for qualifiedproperty with a $2 million phase-outand indexes both for inflation

bull Residential Energy Efficiency TaxCredit (25D) Extends through 2021Section 25D which provides tax

incentives for installing clean energytechnologies such as solar orgeothermal 25D provides a 30 taxcredit to consumers for installingqualified power production propertyThe credit is also uncapped so allqualifying expenses may be claimedThe bill will extend but phase out the

credit for solar starting in 2020 whenthe credit will fall to 26 dropping to22 in 2021 before expiring in 2022

Winsbull Credit for Energy-Efficient New

Homes (45L) This provides buildersa $2000 tax credit for exceedingenergy standards by 50 The baseenergy code is the 2006 InternationalEnergy Conservation Code plussupplements The 45L tax credit isextended through 2016 and can beclaimed by both for-sale and for-renthomes of three stories or lessproviding the developer has a taxbasis in the property at the time ofdevelopment Section 45L is expectedto save home builders $361 million for

tax year 2015

bull Credit for Non-business EnergyProperty (25C) This provisionextends through 2016 the 25C taxcredit which provides a credit up to

$500 for consumers installing qualifiedenergy-efficient upgrades Theprovision updates the baseline forqualifying components Section 25C isexpected to save home owners whoremodel $826 million for tax year2015

bull Bonus Depreciation Originallyintended as a short-term stimulusitem the bill extends but phases outthe bonus depreciation for propertyacquired and placed in service during2015 through 2019 The bonusdepreciation percentage is 50 forproperty placed in service in 20152016 and 2017 dropping to 40 in2018 and 30 in 2019 Bonusdepreciation applies to qualifiedproperty with a recovery period of 20years or less

bull Mortgage Insurance Premiums Thisprovision allows taxpayers subject toan income cap beginning at $100000to deduct premiums paid for privatemortgage insurance and FHARHAVA

insurance premiums The deduction ofmortgage insurance premiums isextended through 2016 and isexpected to save home owners $13billion for tax year 2015

bull Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Thisprovision would eliminate any taxeshome owners might face whenrenegotiating the terms of a homeloan when banks forgive a portion ofthe outstanding mortgage particularlyin connection with short sales Thisapplies only to principal residences

and through the 2016 calendar yearThe exclusion is also modified to debtdischarged in 2017 if the discharge ispursuant to a written agreemententered into in 2016 This extension isexpected to save home owners $33billion for tax year 2015

bull Deduction for Energy-EfficientCommercial Buildings (179D) Thisprovision extends through 2016 adeduction up to $180 per square footfor commercial buildings includingmultifamily buildings built under thecommercial code that meet thebaseline ASHRAE 2007 standard

NAHB provides this information for general guidance only Thisinformation does not constitute the provision of legal advice tax adviceaccounting services investment advice or professional consulting of anykind nor should it be construed as such The information provided hereinshould not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional taxaccounting legal or other competent advisers Before making any decisionor taking any action on this information you should consult a qualifiedprofessional adviser to whom you have provided all of the facts applicableto your particular situation or question None of this tax information isintended to be used nor can it be used by any taxpayer for the purpose ofavoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer The information isprovided ldquoas isrdquo with no assurance or guarantee of completenessaccuracy or timeliness of the information and without warranty of any kindexpress or implied including but not limited to warranties of performancemerchantability and fitness for a particular purpose

The installation of officers

and board for 2016 took place

at the Marriott Hotel on Friday

December 11 A festive crowd

of nearly 300 enjoyed the

dinner the drinks and the

presentation of awards before

the business got started

ldquoIrsquom so grateful to the members forcoming out to this installationrdquo saidincoming President Carlos VillalobosldquoThe setting the food the whole thing is

really great I hope I donrsquot mess up mytalkrdquo Villalobos told the Outlook prior tothe installation of officers This year wewere able to say thanks to many whohave supported the association over theyear and to acknowledge those whopassed during the year We remembereda past president Zeke Zar and a great

supporter associate member Jack Whiteboth who did much for the associationand will be missed

The event also honored those who didsome special little extra such as ouradvertisers who helped keep theassociation afloat in some difficult timesThe event was opened by incoming board

member Gregg Davis with a quick butbeautiful invocation He was followed bypatriot John Chaney as he led the groupin the Pledge of Allegiance

Our event couldnrsquot have happenedwithout the support of partners Wersquod liketo thank our Diamond Partners PointeHomes Foxworth Galbraith JOBE HUBInternational Century 21 APD BMCSelect KB Realty YREE MTI Ready Mixand GECU These folks were honoredwith their Diamond Awards

Our next level of partnerships were ourPlatinum Partners HUNT Stewart Title ofEl Paso and Pioneer Bank And finallyour Gold Partners Rocky MountainMortgage 2-10 Home Buyers Warrantyand Interceramic Tile and Stone GalleryOur sincere thanks to all these partnersfor their support of the installation

The rest of the story amp photos page 8

National State amp Local Building Industry News2015 Issue 12

wwwelpasobuilderscom

Tax Extenders

Package Includes

Key NAHB

Priorities

EPAB Installs

New officers

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 216

2 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM YOUR

FRIENDS AT TEXAS GAS SERVICE

The holidays are a time to give thanks and celebrate with the ones you love

At Texas Gas Service wersquod like to express our gratitude to you for building with

natural gas and for giving your buyers the gift of savings We wish you and your

customers a safe and warm holiday season

Let us help you plan for natural gas right from the start

For more information

ElPasoNewBusinessTXGascom

William Nieves 915-496-6126

Jorge Sejera 915-680-7216

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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ldquoEditorrsquos note Edgar Montiel had prepared his farewell address for the installationawards banquet but through some excitement and overview we skipped his farewellHere it is more or less as it was to

be read My sincere apology to Edgar for the snafurdquo

I asked a couple of people what Ishould write for my last article and I amshocked that the answer I received themost was to just say ldquopeace outrdquo Somepeople carried that a little further andsaid that I should also drop themicrophone as I walked off in to thesunset Obviously I had to remindthem that this was a publication thoughI actually gave some thought to how Icould drop the microphone with wordsOne thing is for sure I will keep it short

I am so grateful to all of you for giving

me the opportunity to serve as yourPresident and am looking forward tobecoming part of the strong legacy ofpast presidents My role as Presidenthas allowed me to see firsthand all ofthe relationship fostering activitiesand issues that the association isconstantly managing Ray was notkidding when he said that the positionwould require a lot of time andcommitment I could not have fulfilled

my duties as President without the helpof my family and amazing constructionand sales staff thank you I also couldnot have done this without theguidance and support provided by RayMargaret and Frank Torres thank youI have learned a lot during my term onthe leadership ladder and can honestlysay that I am a better businessmanbecause of it I am super excited withthe positive direction that theassociation is headed with the currentladder and board Carlos Don and

Kathy are intelligent committedpersonable and will all do amazing jobs during their tenure

Being named the EPABrsquos Builder ofthe Year is truly an honor I cannotthank each of our team membersenough for all of their hard worksacrifice and dedication I especiallywant to thank my wife and kids theHarris Real Estate Group ourcustomers subcontractors suppliers

the City of El Paso all of our lendersand land developers Thank you

I thank all of you again for thisamazing opportunity and wisheveryone absolute success in 2016Merry Christmas and Peace Out

32015 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Edgar MontielPresidentEl Paso Associationof Builders

Peace Out

C

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Northea

5500 NestsidW

ra2244 T Eastside

415 N MDownto

new year

ousosperfor a happy holiday and pr

arm wisheswe celebrate you Wcelebrate this holiday season -

No matter how you personally

comel-paso

8200

ow Bean Suite Dodrt

esert Suite A-2

ood Drive Suite 101

eet esa Strn

stewart

-225-519

o4712 W

Presidentrsquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 416

Christmas is a time for kids Itrsquos atime for believing Itrsquos a time for

remembering If yoursquore like me bythe time the actual celebration date

comes around yoursquore tired Tired ofthe hustle that has become this holy

day the celebration of the birth ofJesus Christ in fulfillment of

prophecy Today we tend tosomehow forget that this is why we

have Christmas and shamefully wehide this fact by calling it a ldquowinterrdquo

holiday erasing the very meaning ofthe day Instead wersquore bombarded

with store sales movie releasesand all the things worldly rather than

holy For some of us it is time ofremembering those who canrsquot be

with us anymore either throughdeath divorce separation or

deployment Itrsquos the most stressfulholiday I can think of and that my

friends is why I particularly am a

humbug We tend to place so muchvalue to things rather than being

thankful for what we already haveRushing out to get a ldquogiftrdquo for

someone isnrsquot what we should bedoing We should be sharing what

we have to those less fortunate weshould be checking in on our elderly

making sure they have food andheat we should be giving to our

place of worship if we have one weshould be reaffirming our

relationships with each otherFamily as most think of it is the

most important thing we have yet weoften use this holiday to punish

those who we should love the mostI know from experience that this time

should be used to buildrelationships mend some and

prepare for the coming year Mydad died on Christmas day This

calendar date is hard for me

personally as I canrsquot ever think of thedate any other way than this is the

day my dad died Sorry but thatrsquoshow it is for me I love the fact that

we celebrate this date for the birth ofthe Christ Child and Irsquom willing to

celebrate with my family I do sobecause we have to move on Itrsquos

what we have to do in order not tolinger on the bad but to begin to

bring in the better A family isespecially important at this time I

hope you can share it with yoursIrsquom going to end my column with

some hope for 2 016 First andforemost I hope for a healthy

housing economy that helps ourmembers and in turn us I hope that

we grow our membership so that wecan share what we know and what

we do with those who donrsquot have aclue right now I hope that the city of

El Paso finds ways to govern

properly with less in fighting andmore work on roads bridges alleyrsquos

and less impediments like theroundabouts and corner structures

you canrsquot see at night I wish forTexDot to fix the huge pot holes on

the freeway I hope for more jobs tobe created and for the processes

towards that less cumbersome Ihope we get to vote for leading

candidates that give a damn aboutyou and me and the nation I hope

for less ldquopolitical correctnessrdquo andmore sensible action by government

I hope that our armed forces aregiven what is needed to win not just

to show up and I wish bettertreatment for our veterans I wish

for the end of Obamacare that ismaking our businesses less covered

and more broke I wish for betterhealth wealth and faith To you and

yours Merry Christmas

Ray Adauto

ExecutiveVice President

EPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

A time for hope

Executiversquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 516

GINDILB

El P

soSIN 0951E

5 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Single-Family Starts ReachSeven-Year High983150 Nationwide housing starts rose 105

percent to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 1173 million units in Novemberaccording to newly released data from theUS Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment and the CommerceDepartment Single-family productionincreased 76 percent to a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of 768000 units itshighest reading since January 2008Multifamily production rose 164 percent to405000 units

ldquoThe November gains in both single- andmultifamily starts show that the overallmarket continues to move forwardrdquo said

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods a homebuilder from Blue Springs Mo ldquoAs buildersanticipate more consumer demand forhousing they should continue to addinventoryrdquo

ldquoSingle-family production this month hasreached levels last seen before the GreatRecession an indicator that we are makinggradual headway back to a normal housingmarketrdquo said NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe ldquoAs we close out the year we cansee that the housing sector has madeheadway in 2015 and we expect therecovery to continue at a modest pacerdquo

Combined single- and multifamily startsrose in the South and West with respective

gains of 213 and 63 percent The Midwestwas unchanged and the Northeast fell 85percent

Overall permit issuance rose 11 percentto 1289 million units in NovemberMultifamily permits rose 269 percent to arate of 566000 while single-family permitsincreased 11 percent to 723000 thehighest level since December 2007

Regionally the Midwest South and Westposted respective permit gains of 22percent 56 percent and 217 percentPermit levels in the Northeast held steady

New Home Sales Rise

107 Percent in October983150 Sales of newly built single-family homes

rose 107 percent to a seasonally adjustedannual rate of 495000 units in Octoberaccording to newly released data fromHUD and the US Census Bureau

ldquoOur builders are reporting continuedoptimism in the housing market and areadding inventory in anticipation of futurebusinessrdquo said Tom Woods chairman ofthe National Association of Home Builders(NAHB) and a home builder from BlueSprings Mo

ldquoSales this year are running 157 percentahead of 2014rdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith a firming job market affordable home prices and

rising pent-up demand todayrsquos report isanother indicator that the housing marketcontinues to move on a modest upwardtrajectoryrdquo

New-home sales were up in three out ofthe four regions Sales rose 1353 percentin the Northeast 53 percent in theMidwest and 89 percent in the SouthSales fell 09 percent in the West

The inventory of new homes for sale was226000 units in October This is a 55-month supply at the current sales pace

Builder Confidence EdgesDown One Point983150

Builder confidence in the market fornewly constructed single-family homesremained relatively flat in Decemberdropping one point to 61 on the NationalAssociation of Home BuildersWells FargoHousing Market Index (HMI)

ldquoOverall builders are optimistic about thehousing market although they arereporting concerns with the high price oflots and laborrdquo said NAHB Chairman TomWoods a home builder from Blue SpringsMo

ldquoFor the past seven months builderconfidence levels have averaged in the low60s which is in line with a gradualconsistent recoveryrdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith job creation

economic growth and growing householdformations we anticipate the housingmarket to continue to pick up traction as wehead into 2016rdquo

Derived from a monthly survey thatNAHB has been conducting for 30 yearsthe NAHBWells Fargo Housing MarketIndex gauges builder perceptions of currentsingle-family home sales and salesexpectations for the next six months asgood fair or poor The survey alsoasks builders to rate traffic of prospectivebuyers as high to very high average orlow to very low Scores for eachcomponent are then used to calculate aseasonally adjusted index where anynumber over 50 indicates that morebuilders view conditions as good than poor

All three HMI components postedmodest losses in December The indexmeasuring sales expectations in the nextsix months fell two points to 67 thecomponent gauging current salesconditions decreased one point to 66 andthe index charting buyer traffic dropped twopoints to 46

Looking at the three-month movingaverages for regional HMI scores the Westincreased three points to 76 while theNortheast rose a single point to 50Meanwhile the Midwest dropped two pointsto 58 and the South fell one point to 64

National

Builder News

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 616

Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

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NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

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Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

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Get Creative Make it Snappy

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Page 2: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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2 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM YOUR

FRIENDS AT TEXAS GAS SERVICE

The holidays are a time to give thanks and celebrate with the ones you love

At Texas Gas Service wersquod like to express our gratitude to you for building with

natural gas and for giving your buyers the gift of savings We wish you and your

customers a safe and warm holiday season

Let us help you plan for natural gas right from the start

For more information

ElPasoNewBusinessTXGascom

William Nieves 915-496-6126

Jorge Sejera 915-680-7216

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 316

ldquoEditorrsquos note Edgar Montiel had prepared his farewell address for the installationawards banquet but through some excitement and overview we skipped his farewellHere it is more or less as it was to

be read My sincere apology to Edgar for the snafurdquo

I asked a couple of people what Ishould write for my last article and I amshocked that the answer I received themost was to just say ldquopeace outrdquo Somepeople carried that a little further andsaid that I should also drop themicrophone as I walked off in to thesunset Obviously I had to remindthem that this was a publication thoughI actually gave some thought to how Icould drop the microphone with wordsOne thing is for sure I will keep it short

I am so grateful to all of you for giving

me the opportunity to serve as yourPresident and am looking forward tobecoming part of the strong legacy ofpast presidents My role as Presidenthas allowed me to see firsthand all ofthe relationship fostering activitiesand issues that the association isconstantly managing Ray was notkidding when he said that the positionwould require a lot of time andcommitment I could not have fulfilled

my duties as President without the helpof my family and amazing constructionand sales staff thank you I also couldnot have done this without theguidance and support provided by RayMargaret and Frank Torres thank youI have learned a lot during my term onthe leadership ladder and can honestlysay that I am a better businessmanbecause of it I am super excited withthe positive direction that theassociation is headed with the currentladder and board Carlos Don and

Kathy are intelligent committedpersonable and will all do amazing jobs during their tenure

Being named the EPABrsquos Builder ofthe Year is truly an honor I cannotthank each of our team membersenough for all of their hard worksacrifice and dedication I especiallywant to thank my wife and kids theHarris Real Estate Group ourcustomers subcontractors suppliers

the City of El Paso all of our lendersand land developers Thank you

I thank all of you again for thisamazing opportunity and wisheveryone absolute success in 2016Merry Christmas and Peace Out

32015 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Edgar MontielPresidentEl Paso Associationof Builders

Peace Out

C

t asri

Northea

5500 NestsidW

ra2244 T Eastside

415 N MDownto

new year

ousosperfor a happy holiday and pr

arm wisheswe celebrate you Wcelebrate this holiday season -

No matter how you personally

comel-paso

8200

ow Bean Suite Dodrt

esert Suite A-2

ood Drive Suite 101

eet esa Strn

stewart

-225-519

o4712 W

Presidentrsquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 416

Christmas is a time for kids Itrsquos atime for believing Itrsquos a time for

remembering If yoursquore like me bythe time the actual celebration date

comes around yoursquore tired Tired ofthe hustle that has become this holy

day the celebration of the birth ofJesus Christ in fulfillment of

prophecy Today we tend tosomehow forget that this is why we

have Christmas and shamefully wehide this fact by calling it a ldquowinterrdquo

holiday erasing the very meaning ofthe day Instead wersquore bombarded

with store sales movie releasesand all the things worldly rather than

holy For some of us it is time ofremembering those who canrsquot be

with us anymore either throughdeath divorce separation or

deployment Itrsquos the most stressfulholiday I can think of and that my

friends is why I particularly am a

humbug We tend to place so muchvalue to things rather than being

thankful for what we already haveRushing out to get a ldquogiftrdquo for

someone isnrsquot what we should bedoing We should be sharing what

we have to those less fortunate weshould be checking in on our elderly

making sure they have food andheat we should be giving to our

place of worship if we have one weshould be reaffirming our

relationships with each otherFamily as most think of it is the

most important thing we have yet weoften use this holiday to punish

those who we should love the mostI know from experience that this time

should be used to buildrelationships mend some and

prepare for the coming year Mydad died on Christmas day This

calendar date is hard for me

personally as I canrsquot ever think of thedate any other way than this is the

day my dad died Sorry but thatrsquoshow it is for me I love the fact that

we celebrate this date for the birth ofthe Christ Child and Irsquom willing to

celebrate with my family I do sobecause we have to move on Itrsquos

what we have to do in order not tolinger on the bad but to begin to

bring in the better A family isespecially important at this time I

hope you can share it with yoursIrsquom going to end my column with

some hope for 2 016 First andforemost I hope for a healthy

housing economy that helps ourmembers and in turn us I hope that

we grow our membership so that wecan share what we know and what

we do with those who donrsquot have aclue right now I hope that the city of

El Paso finds ways to govern

properly with less in fighting andmore work on roads bridges alleyrsquos

and less impediments like theroundabouts and corner structures

you canrsquot see at night I wish forTexDot to fix the huge pot holes on

the freeway I hope for more jobs tobe created and for the processes

towards that less cumbersome Ihope we get to vote for leading

candidates that give a damn aboutyou and me and the nation I hope

for less ldquopolitical correctnessrdquo andmore sensible action by government

I hope that our armed forces aregiven what is needed to win not just

to show up and I wish bettertreatment for our veterans I wish

for the end of Obamacare that ismaking our businesses less covered

and more broke I wish for betterhealth wealth and faith To you and

yours Merry Christmas

Ray Adauto

ExecutiveVice President

EPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

A time for hope

Executiversquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 516

GINDILB

El P

soSIN 0951E

5 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Single-Family Starts ReachSeven-Year High983150 Nationwide housing starts rose 105

percent to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 1173 million units in Novemberaccording to newly released data from theUS Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment and the CommerceDepartment Single-family productionincreased 76 percent to a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of 768000 units itshighest reading since January 2008Multifamily production rose 164 percent to405000 units

ldquoThe November gains in both single- andmultifamily starts show that the overallmarket continues to move forwardrdquo said

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods a homebuilder from Blue Springs Mo ldquoAs buildersanticipate more consumer demand forhousing they should continue to addinventoryrdquo

ldquoSingle-family production this month hasreached levels last seen before the GreatRecession an indicator that we are makinggradual headway back to a normal housingmarketrdquo said NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe ldquoAs we close out the year we cansee that the housing sector has madeheadway in 2015 and we expect therecovery to continue at a modest pacerdquo

Combined single- and multifamily startsrose in the South and West with respective

gains of 213 and 63 percent The Midwestwas unchanged and the Northeast fell 85percent

Overall permit issuance rose 11 percentto 1289 million units in NovemberMultifamily permits rose 269 percent to arate of 566000 while single-family permitsincreased 11 percent to 723000 thehighest level since December 2007

Regionally the Midwest South and Westposted respective permit gains of 22percent 56 percent and 217 percentPermit levels in the Northeast held steady

New Home Sales Rise

107 Percent in October983150 Sales of newly built single-family homes

rose 107 percent to a seasonally adjustedannual rate of 495000 units in Octoberaccording to newly released data fromHUD and the US Census Bureau

ldquoOur builders are reporting continuedoptimism in the housing market and areadding inventory in anticipation of futurebusinessrdquo said Tom Woods chairman ofthe National Association of Home Builders(NAHB) and a home builder from BlueSprings Mo

ldquoSales this year are running 157 percentahead of 2014rdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith a firming job market affordable home prices and

rising pent-up demand todayrsquos report isanother indicator that the housing marketcontinues to move on a modest upwardtrajectoryrdquo

New-home sales were up in three out ofthe four regions Sales rose 1353 percentin the Northeast 53 percent in theMidwest and 89 percent in the SouthSales fell 09 percent in the West

The inventory of new homes for sale was226000 units in October This is a 55-month supply at the current sales pace

Builder Confidence EdgesDown One Point983150

Builder confidence in the market fornewly constructed single-family homesremained relatively flat in Decemberdropping one point to 61 on the NationalAssociation of Home BuildersWells FargoHousing Market Index (HMI)

ldquoOverall builders are optimistic about thehousing market although they arereporting concerns with the high price oflots and laborrdquo said NAHB Chairman TomWoods a home builder from Blue SpringsMo

ldquoFor the past seven months builderconfidence levels have averaged in the low60s which is in line with a gradualconsistent recoveryrdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith job creation

economic growth and growing householdformations we anticipate the housingmarket to continue to pick up traction as wehead into 2016rdquo

Derived from a monthly survey thatNAHB has been conducting for 30 yearsthe NAHBWells Fargo Housing MarketIndex gauges builder perceptions of currentsingle-family home sales and salesexpectations for the next six months asgood fair or poor The survey alsoasks builders to rate traffic of prospectivebuyers as high to very high average orlow to very low Scores for eachcomponent are then used to calculate aseasonally adjusted index where anynumber over 50 indicates that morebuilders view conditions as good than poor

All three HMI components postedmodest losses in December The indexmeasuring sales expectations in the nextsix months fell two points to 67 thecomponent gauging current salesconditions decreased one point to 66 andthe index charting buyer traffic dropped twopoints to 46

Looking at the three-month movingaverages for regional HMI scores the Westincreased three points to 76 while theNortheast rose a single point to 50Meanwhile the Midwest dropped two pointsto 58 and the South fell one point to 64

National

Builder News

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

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worry ng

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ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

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n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

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Commercial L

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Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

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s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

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varyup toc accoun

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oneer

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Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

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overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

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HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Page 3: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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ldquoEditorrsquos note Edgar Montiel had prepared his farewell address for the installationawards banquet but through some excitement and overview we skipped his farewellHere it is more or less as it was to

be read My sincere apology to Edgar for the snafurdquo

I asked a couple of people what Ishould write for my last article and I amshocked that the answer I received themost was to just say ldquopeace outrdquo Somepeople carried that a little further andsaid that I should also drop themicrophone as I walked off in to thesunset Obviously I had to remindthem that this was a publication thoughI actually gave some thought to how Icould drop the microphone with wordsOne thing is for sure I will keep it short

I am so grateful to all of you for giving

me the opportunity to serve as yourPresident and am looking forward tobecoming part of the strong legacy ofpast presidents My role as Presidenthas allowed me to see firsthand all ofthe relationship fostering activitiesand issues that the association isconstantly managing Ray was notkidding when he said that the positionwould require a lot of time andcommitment I could not have fulfilled

my duties as President without the helpof my family and amazing constructionand sales staff thank you I also couldnot have done this without theguidance and support provided by RayMargaret and Frank Torres thank youI have learned a lot during my term onthe leadership ladder and can honestlysay that I am a better businessmanbecause of it I am super excited withthe positive direction that theassociation is headed with the currentladder and board Carlos Don and

Kathy are intelligent committedpersonable and will all do amazing jobs during their tenure

Being named the EPABrsquos Builder ofthe Year is truly an honor I cannotthank each of our team membersenough for all of their hard worksacrifice and dedication I especiallywant to thank my wife and kids theHarris Real Estate Group ourcustomers subcontractors suppliers

the City of El Paso all of our lendersand land developers Thank you

I thank all of you again for thisamazing opportunity and wisheveryone absolute success in 2016Merry Christmas and Peace Out

32015 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Edgar MontielPresidentEl Paso Associationof Builders

Peace Out

C

t asri

Northea

5500 NestsidW

ra2244 T Eastside

415 N MDownto

new year

ousosperfor a happy holiday and pr

arm wisheswe celebrate you Wcelebrate this holiday season -

No matter how you personally

comel-paso

8200

ow Bean Suite Dodrt

esert Suite A-2

ood Drive Suite 101

eet esa Strn

stewart

-225-519

o4712 W

Presidentrsquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 416

Christmas is a time for kids Itrsquos atime for believing Itrsquos a time for

remembering If yoursquore like me bythe time the actual celebration date

comes around yoursquore tired Tired ofthe hustle that has become this holy

day the celebration of the birth ofJesus Christ in fulfillment of

prophecy Today we tend tosomehow forget that this is why we

have Christmas and shamefully wehide this fact by calling it a ldquowinterrdquo

holiday erasing the very meaning ofthe day Instead wersquore bombarded

with store sales movie releasesand all the things worldly rather than

holy For some of us it is time ofremembering those who canrsquot be

with us anymore either throughdeath divorce separation or

deployment Itrsquos the most stressfulholiday I can think of and that my

friends is why I particularly am a

humbug We tend to place so muchvalue to things rather than being

thankful for what we already haveRushing out to get a ldquogiftrdquo for

someone isnrsquot what we should bedoing We should be sharing what

we have to those less fortunate weshould be checking in on our elderly

making sure they have food andheat we should be giving to our

place of worship if we have one weshould be reaffirming our

relationships with each otherFamily as most think of it is the

most important thing we have yet weoften use this holiday to punish

those who we should love the mostI know from experience that this time

should be used to buildrelationships mend some and

prepare for the coming year Mydad died on Christmas day This

calendar date is hard for me

personally as I canrsquot ever think of thedate any other way than this is the

day my dad died Sorry but thatrsquoshow it is for me I love the fact that

we celebrate this date for the birth ofthe Christ Child and Irsquom willing to

celebrate with my family I do sobecause we have to move on Itrsquos

what we have to do in order not tolinger on the bad but to begin to

bring in the better A family isespecially important at this time I

hope you can share it with yoursIrsquom going to end my column with

some hope for 2 016 First andforemost I hope for a healthy

housing economy that helps ourmembers and in turn us I hope that

we grow our membership so that wecan share what we know and what

we do with those who donrsquot have aclue right now I hope that the city of

El Paso finds ways to govern

properly with less in fighting andmore work on roads bridges alleyrsquos

and less impediments like theroundabouts and corner structures

you canrsquot see at night I wish forTexDot to fix the huge pot holes on

the freeway I hope for more jobs tobe created and for the processes

towards that less cumbersome Ihope we get to vote for leading

candidates that give a damn aboutyou and me and the nation I hope

for less ldquopolitical correctnessrdquo andmore sensible action by government

I hope that our armed forces aregiven what is needed to win not just

to show up and I wish bettertreatment for our veterans I wish

for the end of Obamacare that ismaking our businesses less covered

and more broke I wish for betterhealth wealth and faith To you and

yours Merry Christmas

Ray Adauto

ExecutiveVice President

EPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

A time for hope

Executiversquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 516

GINDILB

El P

soSIN 0951E

5 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Single-Family Starts ReachSeven-Year High983150 Nationwide housing starts rose 105

percent to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 1173 million units in Novemberaccording to newly released data from theUS Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment and the CommerceDepartment Single-family productionincreased 76 percent to a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of 768000 units itshighest reading since January 2008Multifamily production rose 164 percent to405000 units

ldquoThe November gains in both single- andmultifamily starts show that the overallmarket continues to move forwardrdquo said

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods a homebuilder from Blue Springs Mo ldquoAs buildersanticipate more consumer demand forhousing they should continue to addinventoryrdquo

ldquoSingle-family production this month hasreached levels last seen before the GreatRecession an indicator that we are makinggradual headway back to a normal housingmarketrdquo said NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe ldquoAs we close out the year we cansee that the housing sector has madeheadway in 2015 and we expect therecovery to continue at a modest pacerdquo

Combined single- and multifamily startsrose in the South and West with respective

gains of 213 and 63 percent The Midwestwas unchanged and the Northeast fell 85percent

Overall permit issuance rose 11 percentto 1289 million units in NovemberMultifamily permits rose 269 percent to arate of 566000 while single-family permitsincreased 11 percent to 723000 thehighest level since December 2007

Regionally the Midwest South and Westposted respective permit gains of 22percent 56 percent and 217 percentPermit levels in the Northeast held steady

New Home Sales Rise

107 Percent in October983150 Sales of newly built single-family homes

rose 107 percent to a seasonally adjustedannual rate of 495000 units in Octoberaccording to newly released data fromHUD and the US Census Bureau

ldquoOur builders are reporting continuedoptimism in the housing market and areadding inventory in anticipation of futurebusinessrdquo said Tom Woods chairman ofthe National Association of Home Builders(NAHB) and a home builder from BlueSprings Mo

ldquoSales this year are running 157 percentahead of 2014rdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith a firming job market affordable home prices and

rising pent-up demand todayrsquos report isanother indicator that the housing marketcontinues to move on a modest upwardtrajectoryrdquo

New-home sales were up in three out ofthe four regions Sales rose 1353 percentin the Northeast 53 percent in theMidwest and 89 percent in the SouthSales fell 09 percent in the West

The inventory of new homes for sale was226000 units in October This is a 55-month supply at the current sales pace

Builder Confidence EdgesDown One Point983150

Builder confidence in the market fornewly constructed single-family homesremained relatively flat in Decemberdropping one point to 61 on the NationalAssociation of Home BuildersWells FargoHousing Market Index (HMI)

ldquoOverall builders are optimistic about thehousing market although they arereporting concerns with the high price oflots and laborrdquo said NAHB Chairman TomWoods a home builder from Blue SpringsMo

ldquoFor the past seven months builderconfidence levels have averaged in the low60s which is in line with a gradualconsistent recoveryrdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith job creation

economic growth and growing householdformations we anticipate the housingmarket to continue to pick up traction as wehead into 2016rdquo

Derived from a monthly survey thatNAHB has been conducting for 30 yearsthe NAHBWells Fargo Housing MarketIndex gauges builder perceptions of currentsingle-family home sales and salesexpectations for the next six months asgood fair or poor The survey alsoasks builders to rate traffic of prospectivebuyers as high to very high average orlow to very low Scores for eachcomponent are then used to calculate aseasonally adjusted index where anynumber over 50 indicates that morebuilders view conditions as good than poor

All three HMI components postedmodest losses in December The indexmeasuring sales expectations in the nextsix months fell two points to 67 thecomponent gauging current salesconditions decreased one point to 66 andthe index charting buyer traffic dropped twopoints to 46

Looking at the three-month movingaverages for regional HMI scores the Westincreased three points to 76 while theNortheast rose a single point to 50Meanwhile the Midwest dropped two pointsto 58 and the South fell one point to 64

National

Builder News

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 616

Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 816

Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 916

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

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2290

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Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

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Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

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El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

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12 NOON

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LAS VEGAS NV

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EVENTSWELCOME BACK

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 4: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 416

Christmas is a time for kids Itrsquos atime for believing Itrsquos a time for

remembering If yoursquore like me bythe time the actual celebration date

comes around yoursquore tired Tired ofthe hustle that has become this holy

day the celebration of the birth ofJesus Christ in fulfillment of

prophecy Today we tend tosomehow forget that this is why we

have Christmas and shamefully wehide this fact by calling it a ldquowinterrdquo

holiday erasing the very meaning ofthe day Instead wersquore bombarded

with store sales movie releasesand all the things worldly rather than

holy For some of us it is time ofremembering those who canrsquot be

with us anymore either throughdeath divorce separation or

deployment Itrsquos the most stressfulholiday I can think of and that my

friends is why I particularly am a

humbug We tend to place so muchvalue to things rather than being

thankful for what we already haveRushing out to get a ldquogiftrdquo for

someone isnrsquot what we should bedoing We should be sharing what

we have to those less fortunate weshould be checking in on our elderly

making sure they have food andheat we should be giving to our

place of worship if we have one weshould be reaffirming our

relationships with each otherFamily as most think of it is the

most important thing we have yet weoften use this holiday to punish

those who we should love the mostI know from experience that this time

should be used to buildrelationships mend some and

prepare for the coming year Mydad died on Christmas day This

calendar date is hard for me

personally as I canrsquot ever think of thedate any other way than this is the

day my dad died Sorry but thatrsquoshow it is for me I love the fact that

we celebrate this date for the birth ofthe Christ Child and Irsquom willing to

celebrate with my family I do sobecause we have to move on Itrsquos

what we have to do in order not tolinger on the bad but to begin to

bring in the better A family isespecially important at this time I

hope you can share it with yoursIrsquom going to end my column with

some hope for 2 016 First andforemost I hope for a healthy

housing economy that helps ourmembers and in turn us I hope that

we grow our membership so that wecan share what we know and what

we do with those who donrsquot have aclue right now I hope that the city of

El Paso finds ways to govern

properly with less in fighting andmore work on roads bridges alleyrsquos

and less impediments like theroundabouts and corner structures

you canrsquot see at night I wish forTexDot to fix the huge pot holes on

the freeway I hope for more jobs tobe created and for the processes

towards that less cumbersome Ihope we get to vote for leading

candidates that give a damn aboutyou and me and the nation I hope

for less ldquopolitical correctnessrdquo andmore sensible action by government

I hope that our armed forces aregiven what is needed to win not just

to show up and I wish bettertreatment for our veterans I wish

for the end of Obamacare that ismaking our businesses less covered

and more broke I wish for betterhealth wealth and faith To you and

yours Merry Christmas

Ray Adauto

ExecutiveVice President

EPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

A time for hope

Executiversquos

Message

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 516

GINDILB

El P

soSIN 0951E

5 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Single-Family Starts ReachSeven-Year High983150 Nationwide housing starts rose 105

percent to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 1173 million units in Novemberaccording to newly released data from theUS Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment and the CommerceDepartment Single-family productionincreased 76 percent to a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of 768000 units itshighest reading since January 2008Multifamily production rose 164 percent to405000 units

ldquoThe November gains in both single- andmultifamily starts show that the overallmarket continues to move forwardrdquo said

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods a homebuilder from Blue Springs Mo ldquoAs buildersanticipate more consumer demand forhousing they should continue to addinventoryrdquo

ldquoSingle-family production this month hasreached levels last seen before the GreatRecession an indicator that we are makinggradual headway back to a normal housingmarketrdquo said NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe ldquoAs we close out the year we cansee that the housing sector has madeheadway in 2015 and we expect therecovery to continue at a modest pacerdquo

Combined single- and multifamily startsrose in the South and West with respective

gains of 213 and 63 percent The Midwestwas unchanged and the Northeast fell 85percent

Overall permit issuance rose 11 percentto 1289 million units in NovemberMultifamily permits rose 269 percent to arate of 566000 while single-family permitsincreased 11 percent to 723000 thehighest level since December 2007

Regionally the Midwest South and Westposted respective permit gains of 22percent 56 percent and 217 percentPermit levels in the Northeast held steady

New Home Sales Rise

107 Percent in October983150 Sales of newly built single-family homes

rose 107 percent to a seasonally adjustedannual rate of 495000 units in Octoberaccording to newly released data fromHUD and the US Census Bureau

ldquoOur builders are reporting continuedoptimism in the housing market and areadding inventory in anticipation of futurebusinessrdquo said Tom Woods chairman ofthe National Association of Home Builders(NAHB) and a home builder from BlueSprings Mo

ldquoSales this year are running 157 percentahead of 2014rdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith a firming job market affordable home prices and

rising pent-up demand todayrsquos report isanother indicator that the housing marketcontinues to move on a modest upwardtrajectoryrdquo

New-home sales were up in three out ofthe four regions Sales rose 1353 percentin the Northeast 53 percent in theMidwest and 89 percent in the SouthSales fell 09 percent in the West

The inventory of new homes for sale was226000 units in October This is a 55-month supply at the current sales pace

Builder Confidence EdgesDown One Point983150

Builder confidence in the market fornewly constructed single-family homesremained relatively flat in Decemberdropping one point to 61 on the NationalAssociation of Home BuildersWells FargoHousing Market Index (HMI)

ldquoOverall builders are optimistic about thehousing market although they arereporting concerns with the high price oflots and laborrdquo said NAHB Chairman TomWoods a home builder from Blue SpringsMo

ldquoFor the past seven months builderconfidence levels have averaged in the low60s which is in line with a gradualconsistent recoveryrdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith job creation

economic growth and growing householdformations we anticipate the housingmarket to continue to pick up traction as wehead into 2016rdquo

Derived from a monthly survey thatNAHB has been conducting for 30 yearsthe NAHBWells Fargo Housing MarketIndex gauges builder perceptions of currentsingle-family home sales and salesexpectations for the next six months asgood fair or poor The survey alsoasks builders to rate traffic of prospectivebuyers as high to very high average orlow to very low Scores for eachcomponent are then used to calculate aseasonally adjusted index where anynumber over 50 indicates that morebuilders view conditions as good than poor

All three HMI components postedmodest losses in December The indexmeasuring sales expectations in the nextsix months fell two points to 67 thecomponent gauging current salesconditions decreased one point to 66 andthe index charting buyer traffic dropped twopoints to 46

Looking at the three-month movingaverages for regional HMI scores the Westincreased three points to 76 while theNortheast rose a single point to 50Meanwhile the Midwest dropped two pointsto 58 and the South fell one point to 64

National

Builder News

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 616

Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 816

Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

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help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

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n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

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ersonal andP

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usness ec ng

FREE Checking

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solutio

in bank

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s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

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Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

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rcial Umbrella

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HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Page 5: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 516

GINDILB

El P

soSIN 0951E

5 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Single-Family Starts ReachSeven-Year High983150 Nationwide housing starts rose 105

percent to a seasonally adjusted annualrate of 1173 million units in Novemberaccording to newly released data from theUS Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment and the CommerceDepartment Single-family productionincreased 76 percent to a seasonallyadjusted annual rate of 768000 units itshighest reading since January 2008Multifamily production rose 164 percent to405000 units

ldquoThe November gains in both single- andmultifamily starts show that the overallmarket continues to move forwardrdquo said

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods a homebuilder from Blue Springs Mo ldquoAs buildersanticipate more consumer demand forhousing they should continue to addinventoryrdquo

ldquoSingle-family production this month hasreached levels last seen before the GreatRecession an indicator that we are makinggradual headway back to a normal housingmarketrdquo said NAHB Chief Economist DavidCrowe ldquoAs we close out the year we cansee that the housing sector has madeheadway in 2015 and we expect therecovery to continue at a modest pacerdquo

Combined single- and multifamily startsrose in the South and West with respective

gains of 213 and 63 percent The Midwestwas unchanged and the Northeast fell 85percent

Overall permit issuance rose 11 percentto 1289 million units in NovemberMultifamily permits rose 269 percent to arate of 566000 while single-family permitsincreased 11 percent to 723000 thehighest level since December 2007

Regionally the Midwest South and Westposted respective permit gains of 22percent 56 percent and 217 percentPermit levels in the Northeast held steady

New Home Sales Rise

107 Percent in October983150 Sales of newly built single-family homes

rose 107 percent to a seasonally adjustedannual rate of 495000 units in Octoberaccording to newly released data fromHUD and the US Census Bureau

ldquoOur builders are reporting continuedoptimism in the housing market and areadding inventory in anticipation of futurebusinessrdquo said Tom Woods chairman ofthe National Association of Home Builders(NAHB) and a home builder from BlueSprings Mo

ldquoSales this year are running 157 percentahead of 2014rdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith a firming job market affordable home prices and

rising pent-up demand todayrsquos report isanother indicator that the housing marketcontinues to move on a modest upwardtrajectoryrdquo

New-home sales were up in three out ofthe four regions Sales rose 1353 percentin the Northeast 53 percent in theMidwest and 89 percent in the SouthSales fell 09 percent in the West

The inventory of new homes for sale was226000 units in October This is a 55-month supply at the current sales pace

Builder Confidence EdgesDown One Point983150

Builder confidence in the market fornewly constructed single-family homesremained relatively flat in Decemberdropping one point to 61 on the NationalAssociation of Home BuildersWells FargoHousing Market Index (HMI)

ldquoOverall builders are optimistic about thehousing market although they arereporting concerns with the high price oflots and laborrdquo said NAHB Chairman TomWoods a home builder from Blue SpringsMo

ldquoFor the past seven months builderconfidence levels have averaged in the low60s which is in line with a gradualconsistent recoveryrdquo said NAHB ChiefEconomist David Crowe ldquoWith job creation

economic growth and growing householdformations we anticipate the housingmarket to continue to pick up traction as wehead into 2016rdquo

Derived from a monthly survey thatNAHB has been conducting for 30 yearsthe NAHBWells Fargo Housing MarketIndex gauges builder perceptions of currentsingle-family home sales and salesexpectations for the next six months asgood fair or poor The survey alsoasks builders to rate traffic of prospectivebuyers as high to very high average orlow to very low Scores for eachcomponent are then used to calculate aseasonally adjusted index where anynumber over 50 indicates that morebuilders view conditions as good than poor

All three HMI components postedmodest losses in December The indexmeasuring sales expectations in the nextsix months fell two points to 67 thecomponent gauging current salesconditions decreased one point to 66 andthe index charting buyer traffic dropped twopoints to 46

Looking at the three-month movingaverages for regional HMI scores the Westincreased three points to 76 while theNortheast rose a single point to 50Meanwhile the Midwest dropped two pointsto 58 and the South fell one point to 64

National

Builder News

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 616

Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

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worry ng

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n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

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n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

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Finance

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Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

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rcial Umbrella

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HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Page 6: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

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Scott Sedam Professional Builder online

Yet for most of usmdashand I suggestfor everyone who has any bent towardprocess improvementmdashonce you havethat piece of knowledge know itsconsequences and are banged overthe head with continual reminders you

just canrsquot let it goEven more difficult is willful

ignorance whereby an individual orcompany makes the choice to ignorewhat Jim Collins termed ldquoObjectiveCurrent Realityrdquo I donrsquot have thetemper I had when I was young andsome now even describe me aspatient but encountering willfulignorance can push me right to theedge Many times I have counseledmdashtalked down in effectmdashyounger builderassociates who decided to ldquoface thebrutal factsrdquo (another Collins saying)on difficult issues while theircolleagues and bosses willfullyrefused I could be the only author inhistory to quote Jim Collins and CatStevens in the same article but duringthese talks Catrsquos old song ldquoFather ampSonrdquo comes to mind with the line ldquoItrsquosnot easy to be calm when yoursquovefound something going onrdquo

This is the sixth in a series of articlesin Professional Builder about processwaste how to identify and understandit and awakening to the reality that themajority of product waste has its roots

in bad process There are hundreds ofexamples of process failure thatseriously impede productivity and profitfor builders suppliers and tradesalike yet there is significant resistanceto tackling process obstacles head onGoing after product waste iscomparatively simple You can see ittouch it measure it test it Processwaste is a far bigger challenge

A Telling ExampleTo illustrate Irsquoll focus on one

example that I first wrote about 15years ago and have touched on manytimes since yet I see precious littleawareness shallow understandingand virtually no change despite theveritable gold mine that awaits thosewho solve it Even worse this issueoften generates fear in seniormanagers when confronted with it andIrsquoll admit I am still trying to work outwhatrsquos behind their reaction

Let me first suggest what theirresponse should be The inarguabledata comes in that there is a minimumof $10K waste per unit in your homeson a single process issue You areprofitable but at 20 percent grossmargin on your $300K units yoursquore notsetting the world on fire That $10Kwould increase your current grossmargin to above 23 percent whichwould make your investors very happyYou are building 100 units annually sothatrsquos a million bucks You should beecstatic but you arenrsquot In fact youdonrsquot even want to engage on this

issue Can you guess what this mightbe

This particular $10K (minimum)thatrsquos buried under every house in theUS and Canada is caused by wastedor otherwise unnecessary trips to thebuilding site I observed thisphenomenon first in my college years

as a loader in a large commerciallumberyard in Ohio I began to noticehow one builder in particular almostnever required extra trips to the sitesfor more materials He got it right thefirst time Three loads and done

That builder was extremely particularabout material species lengths andhow the loads should be stacked Forothers ldquohot shotrdquo runs were a way oflife Forty years later Irsquove learned theaverage lumber company requires fiveto seven additional trips to a sitebeyond what should have originallybeen required had things gone rightfrom the beginning This isnrsquot a roughguess We have had more than 200

lumber and material dealers participatein our LeanWeek sessions withbuilders and we have the data Forthese firms the trips average about$275 each without opportunity cost ahuge bullet that most studies calculateat about 50 percent of the raw cost

Think about this a moment Letrsquostake the average which is six trips ata very low calculation of $250 per triptotaling $1500 Thatrsquos a huge amountof cost that someone has to pay forHow many times do builders go to theirlumber dealers and appeal for a $200or $300 price cut Thatrsquos almostimpossible to get these days

But what if the builder calls thelumber company and suggests ldquoHowabout we work together this year toeliminate four of those six trips and weeach pocket more than $500rdquo Do youthink the lumber company would beinterested I have asked countlessgroups of builder personnel atconferences HBABIA meetingsBuilder 20 Groups etc how manycould show me that they have takenthe initiative to do this I never get a

raised hand Irsquove asked several groupsof lumber companies how many oftheir builders have ever offered Againno one But why Isnrsquot the benefitobvious

The average builder in the US orCanada writes checks to somewherebetween 30 and 60 firms in theprocess of building a house The lownumber is for builders using a lot ofturnkey relationships but 40 is a goodworking number Our data shows thatthe average number of extra trips runsaround 15 per suppliertrade Letrsquos beconservative and say the total numberof excess trips is 50 per house totalWith 4800 suppliers and trades now

having participated in our LeanWeekswe know that the conservative averagecost per trip is $200 Sure there are$50 trips but then there is thefoundation crew that eats up $800 fora single trip before doing any work

A couple of years ago wecommissioned a survey of suppliersand trades and received 497 of 600surveys backmdashan incredible responseWhen we totaled and averaged theircost per trip it came to $201 In short$200 is a solid number and again weare not counting the huge impact oflost opportunity so itrsquos actually quitelow in terms of real effect

Therersquos no denying it More than 50

trips at $200 each accounts for morethan $10K on the average $300Khome Be honest now Have you everreally gone after this If you still havedoubts therersquos one subtlety here thatfinally dawned on us after anelectrician became thoroughlyunplugged during one sessionpassionately explaining that buildersdonrsquot even realize that 80 percent ofthe wasted trips are happening Hedescribed how ldquodry runsrdquo where workcannot be started or a delivery madegenerate a lot of unpleasantcommunication The builder hearsabout it at least at the field level Theinsidious ones he went on are when a

two-day rough requires a third trip tocomplete due to a conflict misseddelivery etc and he and his fellowsuppliers and trades rarely say a word

They are good soldiers They just doit move on and take the hit Thisldquounable to completerdquo applies to virtuallyevery trade far more often thanbuilders ever realize and itrsquos notwithout significant cost

Irsquove asked literally thousands ofsuppliers and trades now whatpercentage of wasted trips do theyever even try to collect a trip chargeTheir answer less than 10 percentSimilarly I ask purchasing whatpercentage of the extra trip chargeinvoices that they see are approvedand paid by the builder They alsoanswer less than 10 percent Ponderthat This means builders actually payfor less than 1 percent of the wastedtrips to building sites The suppliersand trades eat this $10K on every oneof your homes or rather bury it in theiroverhead No matter the costs arethere

6 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Industry

Perspective

Process Failure

Product Waste In Home Building

Sometimes lifemdashand workmdashwould be easier if you could forget

some things yoursquove learned Blissful ignorance has its appeal not

just for individuals but for companies schools churches

governments and organizations of all kinds Just keep on doing

what yoursquore doing even if itrsquos not working so well Blame the

suppliers blame the trades blame your people blame the other

builders blame the market blame the press and blame the

government at every level No worries you have a long road to

travel before you get to blaming yourself

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 816

Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 916

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

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since 1984

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talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

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The future starts

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 7: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 716

7 15 ISSUE 12 Builders Outlook

Time To Pay Up

So who ultimately pays Is this atthe heart of why builders avoidconfronting this critical process issue

Irsquove had several builders actually getangry with me for generatingawareness of the problem Theirconcern is they will suddenly get hitwith all sorts of trip charges It is truethat so many suppliers and trades out

there have eaten these costs for solong that they just think thatrsquos the wayhome building is and never try tocollect So is that an answer Keepthem in the dark and hope they remainunaware Do that if you are contentwith lower profit for you yoursuppliers and your trades

Right now there is no greater issueaffecting builder profitability in the USthan trade shortages It matters notwhere you live everyone thinks theyare the worst in the country Imaginefor a moment if you worked with yoursuppliers and trades in earnest andover the next couple of yearseliminated 80 percent of those extra

trips totaling $8K of cost What wouldhappen They would immediately getmore profitable at the same bid pricethey are getting now Several resultsaccrue First they will put you at thetop of their list because you haveclearly demonstrated you care abouttheir success Second they can bidyou more closely now knowing theywonrsquot have extra costs to bear Thirdyoursquoll get their best crews and nothingkeeps you on schedule and ensuresquality better than having the bestcrews Finally even beyond thosethree important factors you will makea lot more money To get it thoughyoursquoll have to make some changes

1 Why do our suppliers and tradeshave to make extra trips tobuilding sites that kill the scheduleand cost them money Becausewe lack complete detail on plansoptions and specifications

2 Why Because purchasing is sofar behind

3 Why Because we never givepurchasing enough time andinformation to get bids contractsand scopes done before a newproject opens

4 Why Because Product

Development is always behind

5 Why Because seniormanagement keeps changing theproduct

If a builder figured out what theywere going to build and stuck with itproduct development had plansspecifications and options determinedon time and purchasing had all theinformation it needed for 100 percentcomplete bid packages and startpackages would you reduce extratrips Would you make more moneyWould they make more money Thatcould go in many directions For

example in another company the rootmay be that Sales accepts too manylate or custom change orders In stillanother company it may be abreakdown in the POVPO system Instill another it could be poorscheduling practices No matter whatthe source this is a way to reducecost and stay on schedule

So donrsquot be afraid to make multipleiterations of the 5 Whys If you needsix or seven questions to get to theheart of the matter then do it In thefirst example above I would ask Whydoes senior management keepchanging the product It could bebecause they bought the land wrong

and what they had in mind originallywasnrsquot working Or because two newcompetitors opened down the road atthe identical price point Or it could

just be that the management teamcanrsquot ever make a decision and stickwith it

Compare that to dealing with aproduct issue such as whether toswitch from Siding A to Siding B or goto a higher level of carpet pad orchange the pitch of a roof Thatrsquos easyProcess resolution is far morecomplex and messy Any builder whostrongly commits to eliminating wastedtrips unavoidably commits to doing awhole lot of other things right and

thatrsquos why we know the money isthere I could have made this entirepoint with other processes but thewasted trip problem is the hardest todeal with that Irsquove encountered Thereis genuine fear in opening up tosuppliers and trades and admittingthat your process failures are hurtingtheir bottom line There is fear that ifyou blow it all yoursquoll get is a constantstream of trip charges leading tohigher cost There is fear that you willnever actually see the money yousave them All that fear adds up to abig mental roadblock That results inmaintaining business as usual andgoing the traditional route of trying to

negotiate lower cost In this market Iwish you luck

Will you allow fear to keep your backturned to this critical issue Will fearkeep you from facing the brutal factsof this and other process failures Ifear you will I hope you will not PB

---Scott Sedam is president of

TrueNorth Development For the latest PDF in this series ldquoBridging the Margin Gaprdquo send a request via email to infotruencom and include ldquoMargin Gaprdquo in the subject line

Make It HappenGet a team of your strongest people together from all parts of the companymdashnot justconstruction and estimatingmdashand brainstorm a list of everything yoursquod have to do toeliminate these extra trips The age-old Lean Six Sigma technique ldquoThe 5 Whysrdquo is perfect toget you started Letrsquos try it

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 816

Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 916

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

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Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

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JANUARY 19-21

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LAS VEGAS NV

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

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7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 8: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 816

Buildeers Outlook

On the SceneEPAB Installtion amp

Awards Banquet

As the attendees ate

delicious medallions of beefthe award presentationsbegan Up first werespecial awards for somemembers who went beyondthe call of duty andincluded Lorraine HuitTerry Martin and Gina AvilaNext we announced the2015 Associate Member ofthe Year and the winnerwas Interceramic Tile andStone Gallery for theircontinuous support andwork with the associationA stunned Gaby Rubio

accepted the award on behalf of the entire Interceramicfamily ldquoI am at a loss for words probably for the first

timerdquo Gaby told the crowd Later on Gaby said sheimmediately called David Holguin to inform him of theaward ldquoDavid told me to thank the association for thisand to let you know that we will continue to supportwhere we canrdquo Rubio told the Outlook

The next award was for Builder Member of the Yearand the award was presented to outgoing PresidentEdgar Montiel of Palo Verde Homes He said that hewas surprised and grateful for the acknowledgement ofhis term and the three years he had worked for theassociation He was reminded that he still had anotheryear to go by staying on the executive team asimmediate Past President

Following Montiel was the John Schatzman Award anaward that isnrsquot given every year It was the brainchild ofExecutive Officer Ray Adauto and Past President MarkDyer Ray is the only vote on who gets this serviceaward given for service outside of the associationhonoring someone for being an ambassador and givingto the community The award went to Past PresidentBrad Roe Roe Engineering Brad has held various citystate and national offices including his current stint as aBoard member for the Public Service Board Roe wasshocked and had little to say other than thank youLater he told Adauto that he was especially thankfulbecause he went to Cathedral High School withSchatzman and that Schatzman built the house he stilllives in Roe also had some kind words for Ray withwhom he has a mentorship with ldquoI couldnrsquot wait to giveBrad this well-deserved and overdue award for all hersquosdone for the community association and both Cathedraland UTEPrdquo Adauto said

Another bid announcement was made that theassociation will retire the Pat Cox Award and insteadoffer a newly created meritorious service award to benamed for Sam Shallenberger and John Chaney bothgreat examples of association volunteer work Sam and

John were honored respectfully for their years of servicewith separate awards Chaney was bestowed the title ofYoung Designer Chairman Emeritus for his single handedcontinuation of the vital scholarship program done incooperation with two school districts Chaneyimmediately asked if we were doing the awards for otherreasons ldquoI need to know do you guys think that Samand I are on our last breath or whatrdquo he asked with agrin We assured him that we still need his work tocontinue so naming an award after him and Sam was just a way for us to say thank you

The Board was installed by Sam Shallenbergerfollowed by him installing the executive and president ldquoIam honored to do thisrdquo Shallenberger told us A list of2016 Board members will be posted in the January issueof the Outlook as well as the members of specialcommittees and directorships The evening wasenhanced with the generous donation of unwrapped toys

for needy kids Two local groups were honored to getthe toys The Junior Womenrsquos Club of El Pasodistributed to the Montana Vista area kids while CiudadNueva used their toys to stock an innovative givingcenter for families in the downtown area Yoursquoll seepictures from these two groups inside this issue ofOutlook

The next installation date has been set as we makearrangements for the incoming president and board nextyear Keep Friday December 2 2016 as EPABInstallation date

Continued from Front Cover

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 916

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

NAHB MEMBERS GET EXCLUSIVE REGISTRATION DISCOUNTS

BuildersShowcom

AD1316

Invest in your future and get the tools you need to become an

industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

(IBS) Learn from some of the industryrsquos best speakers see live

construction demos by leading experts and explore top manufacturers

and suppliersndashall at the building industryrsquos biggest event You just

canrsquot beat this incredible value

IBSVEGAS

IMPROVE YOUR BUSINESS IN JUST 3 DAYS AT IBS 2016

ibs 2016DISCOVER THE BUILDING UNIVERSE

january 19-21 Las Vegas

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 9: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 916

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

NAHB MEMBERS GET EXCLUSIVE REGISTRATION DISCOUNTS

BuildersShowcom

AD1316

Invest in your future and get the tools you need to become an

industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

(IBS) Learn from some of the industryrsquos best speakers see live

construction demos by leading experts and explore top manufacturers

and suppliersndashall at the building industryrsquos biggest event You just

canrsquot beat this incredible value

IBSVEGAS

IMPROVE YOUR BUSINESS IN JUST 3 DAYS AT IBS 2016

ibs 2016DISCOVER THE BUILDING UNIVERSE

january 19-21 Las Vegas

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 10: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1016

wwwnprorg Every investor would love this gift a

really good crystal ballItd be so helpful to look right through

the orbuculum and glimpse the futureprices of stocks bonds and gold bars

Unfortunately no such ball existsOur next best option is to turn toeconomic forecasters And in generalthe professionals see mostly goodnews for 2016

The mainstream view is that the newyears gross domestic product mdash thebroadest measure of the economy mdashwill grow in the 25 to 3 percent rangeIn the first 6 12 years of this recoverythe average growth rate has been inthe 2 to 25 percent range

In other words most economistsbelieve the coming year may bring aslightly better pace of expansion than

what we are seeing nowHere are some 2016 predictions thatreflect commonly held opinions amongtop forecasters

Corporate profits perking upEarnings growth is expected toaccelerate Resumption of earningsgrowth is key to stock marketperformance in 2016 [which means]another year of potentially positivereturns mdash LPL Financial

Oil prices staying low They likelywill remain depressed and may evenfall below $35 a barrel I dont thinkweve seen the bottom of energy mdashLaurence Fink BlackRock chairmanspeaking on Bloomberg TV

Interest rates rising The FederalReserve has finally begun hiking short-term interest rates and now is likely toproceed very slowly IHS Global Insightexpects four [quarter-percentage-point]increases in 2016 (in March JuneSeptember and December) and fourmore in 2017 mdash IHS Global Insight

Residential constructionimproving Homebuilding especiallysingle-family homebuilding will remaina key driver of economic growth in2016 There is a great deal of pent-updemand for housing mdash PNC senioreconomist Gus Faucher

Unemployment falling The 5percent jobless rate could go evenlower perhaps down to the mid-4smdash Julie Heath director of theUniversity of Cincinnatis EconomicCenter

Auto sales setting records Autosales are projected to hit 173 millionby the end of 2015 just shy of the2000 record of 174 million Thatthreshold certainly will be surpassed in2016 as sales stretch to an almost-mythical 18 million vehicles mdash RobertWeagley chair of the personalfinancial planning department at theUniversity of Missouri

Manufacturing strengthening Themanufacturing economy is stabilizingafter a difficult 18-month period (mid-2014 to late 2015) and may acceleratefurther mdash John Canally economicstrategist for LPL Financial

Wages inching up The US ispoised for real wage growth of 27barring rising inflation mdash Korn FerryHay Group

Superlow inflation means workersoften dont see big raises andconsumers may delay buying thinkingprices will drop some more

Prices Are Low And That CouldBe Bad

While most predictions are on thepositive side for companies workers

and consumers economists also seepotential trouble spots Those includea too-strong-dollar that could furtherdepress US export sales continuedsluggishness in China plungingcommodity prices that could lead tomany more layoffs and terroristevents

And speaking of forecasts how didthe professionals do when predicting2015

Pretty good reallyHeres a line from a Wall Street

Journal story that ran in mid-Decemberlast year

The US economy is poised forstronger growth in 2015 due to falling

gas prices a tighter job market andexpectations of larger wage gainsaccording to the latest Wall Street

Journal survey of economistsThose forecasters may not have had

a crystal ball but at least for 2015

their darts mostly landed on the rightnumbers

10 Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Pioneer Bank understands

nancesabout

spen ess me

offer products t

moreand

worry ng

help you

n o r en w

your finBusine lWhencommuPionee

t new

ancial needs we provides or personal whatever

we growyou grow

n y an s nceyourbeenhasBankr

eas s nce

oans

Commercial L

ersonal andP

Savings

usness ec ng

FREE Checking

provideun erstonlinethese a l lland cr

solutio

in bank

l

s the latest innovationsan s your nee s an

Pioneer BankyBill P nd additional bills from

edit card mdash then pay l

s to help you succeed

in

oansortgage

R

ay Online Bill P

tatementseS

Banking

Internet amp Mobile

Merchant Services

emote De osit

one - aso015 N Mesa

S

R e s l e r D

r

S

R

e s l e

r D

r

N M e s a S t

N M e s a S t

N

one - aso068 Gateway East

ona

2290

N

Gat ew ay E as t

Tra

e - o

Trawood

for more detailsee an represenepending on acco250000 Services

s insured by FDICo open aN

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

L e e

T r evi n o

Dr

wood Dr

a ve unt

varyup toc accoun

p

oneer

n

Finance

No Crystal Ball

Heres the 2016 economic forecasts

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

NAHB MEMBERS GET EXCLUSIVE REGISTRATION DISCOUNTS

BuildersShowcom

AD1316

Invest in your future and get the tools you need to become an

industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

(IBS) Learn from some of the industryrsquos best speakers see live

construction demos by leading experts and explore top manufacturers

and suppliersndashall at the building industryrsquos biggest event You just

canrsquot beat this incredible value

IBSVEGAS

IMPROVE YOUR BUSINESS IN JUST 3 DAYS AT IBS 2016

ibs 2016DISCOVER THE BUILDING UNIVERSE

january 19-21 Las Vegas

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 11: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1116

To date the following sevenresolutions and one recommendationhave been submitted by NAHBdirectors for consideration by theNAHB Board of Directors through the

NAHB resolutions process at theupcoming IBS Board meeting

Here is a summary of each resolutionand recommendation along with thename of the sponsor and thecommitteescouncils to which it hasbeen referred If there is current NAHBpolicy related to the proposedresolution the policy is listed with alink to the existing policy statement

Here are all the resolutionssubmitted to date

Resolutions and recommendations canstill be submitted for consideration atthe IBS Board Meeting but will requirea two-thirds majority vote (rather thana simple majority) for passage by theboard To submit a resolution the fullresolution should be emailed to TomWoods Chairman of the Boardthrough Jessica Lynch at NAHB (800-368-5242 x8401) by a directorcurrently serving on NAHBs Board ofDirectors

Emerging Technologies inResidential Construction AsksNAHB to support efforts to protectsmall businesses from regulations andliability related to the use of emergingtechnologies to oppose efforts toimpose uncompetitive limits on the useof emerging technology and topromote the development of newtechnologies Sponsored by theBusiness Management amp InformationTechnology Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Custom HomeBuilders Land Development andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees

Staff contact Felicia Watson(x8229) Alex Strong (x8279)

Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA) Asks NAHB to urge federalagencies to expand programs toeducate the construction industry onthe requirements of the ADA support

model accessibility building codesendorsed by the Dept of Justice (DOJ)as providing a safe harbor forcomplying with the ADA urge DOJ todevelop clear criteria for meeting ADA

requirements and advocate to limitliability for industry members whomake a good faith effort to comply withthe ADA Sponsored by the LandDevelopment Committee Referred tothe Construction Liability RiskManagement amp Building MaterialsFederal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders Legal Action andConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittees NAHB Remodelers andMultifamily Council

Staff contacts Felicia Watson(x8229) Claire Worshtil (x8309)

Ginnie Mae Asks NAHB to urgeCongress to remove Ginnie Maersquossalary and expenses from the federalbudget appropriations process in orderto ensure that Ginnie Mae hasadequate funding and require GinnieMae to contribute funds annually to afund to support affordable housingSponsored by the Housing FinanceCommittee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)

Require Congressional Review forRule Adoption Asks NAHB tosupport the ldquoRegulations from theExecutive in Need of Scrutiny Actrdquo(REINS Act) Sponsored by theLouisiana HBA Referred to theFederal Government AffairsCommittee

Staff contact Alex Strong (x8297)

Related policy ReduceRegulatory Burdens on SmallBusinesses

Comprehensive Framework forHousing Finance System ReformUpdates and replaces NAHBrsquos policyon this topic Asks NAHB to supportreform that maintains a robust housingfinance system restarts a carefullyregulated fully private mortgage-

backed securities system continuesthe role of the federal governmenthousing agencies enhances the roleof state and local housing financeagencies supports options for the

Federal Home Loan Banks to expandand support correcting other flaws inthe mortgage market that contributedto the causes of the Great RecessionSponsored by the Housing Finance

Committee Referred to the FederalGovernment Affairs Committee and theMultifamily Council

Staff contact Chellie Hamecs(x8425)Replaces policy Comprehensive

Framework for Housing FinanceSystem Reform

Water Conservation Updates andreplaces NAHBrsquos policy on this topicAsks NAHB to support voluntary andcost-effective initiatives and economicincentives that encourage waterconservation in new and existingstructures promote the ICC 700National Green Building Standard as areference for those entities seeking toestablish water efficiency programsSponsored by the EnvironmentalIssues and Construction Codes ampStandards Committees Referred tothe Federal Government Affairs SingleFamily Builders and LandDevelopment committees and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact John Ritterpusch(x8325)Replaces policy Water Conservation

Performance Standards in EnergyCodes Updates and replaces NAHBrsquospolicy on this topic Asks NAHB tosupport cost-effective performance-based provisions within model energy

codes and standards considersupporting proposed changes toexisting model energy codes andstandards that increase options orreduce limitations and recognize thatdesign choices in this area should notbe limited Sponsored by theConstruction Codes amp StandardsCommittee Referred to the SingleFamily Builders Committee and theNAHB Remodelers and MultifamilyCouncil

Staff contact Craig Drumheller(x8565)

Replaces policy PerformanceStandards in Energy Codes

National Builder CertificationProgram Asks that NAHB to conducta pilot market research study in NewJersey to explore the feasibility ofdeveloping a national buildercertification program and to form aworking group to oversee this effortSponsored by the New Jersey BuildersAssociation Referred to the PublicAffairs Membership Education andBudget amp Finance Committees

Staff contact Melissa Voorhees(x8251)

11 15 issue 12 Builders Outlook

Insurance developed for builders

Developed for builders with the ba cking of the strongest insura ncecarriers serving the Texas building industry our insurance progra moffers flex ible coverage options and rates that a re more competitive than ever A s an authorized member of Builder Agent Network copy w ersquorededicated to providing builders and contra ctors with the best-in-cla ssinsurance programs pricing underwriting resources a nd service

Product Portfolio Highlights

ldquoArdquo ra ted ca rriers sev eral a vailable

overage for property damag e that results from faulty defectiveor poor work manship in your work

va ilable

Expanded policy form for commercial pro jects

Builderrsquos Risk master policies monthly reporting a nnua l and one shots Work ersrsquo Comp - Tw o hig hly cost-effectiv e programs

Ex rcial eneral Contractors

rcial Umbrella

w wwbuilderagentnetworkcomww whubinternat ionalcom

El Paso Permian Basin and Surrounding Area

HUB International Insura nce Services 915-206-6047

Resolutions for the 2016 IBS Board of Directors Meeting

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

NAHB MEMBERS GET EXCLUSIVE REGISTRATION DISCOUNTS

BuildersShowcom

AD1316

Invest in your future and get the tools you need to become an

industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

(IBS) Learn from some of the industryrsquos best speakers see live

construction demos by leading experts and explore top manufacturers

and suppliersndashall at the building industryrsquos biggest event You just

canrsquot beat this incredible value

IBSVEGAS

IMPROVE YOUR BUSINESS IN JUST 3 DAYS AT IBS 2016

ibs 2016DISCOVER THE BUILDING UNIVERSE

january 19-21 Las Vegas

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 12: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1216

12 Builders Outlook 2015 issue 12

Trends

Technology Construction

NAHB MEMBERS GET EXCLUSIVE REGISTRATION DISCOUNTS

BuildersShowcom

AD1316

Invest in your future and get the tools you need to become an

industry leader at the 2016 NAHB International Buildersrsquo Showreg

(IBS) Learn from some of the industryrsquos best speakers see live

construction demos by leading experts and explore top manufacturers

and suppliersndashall at the building industryrsquos biggest event You just

canrsquot beat this incredible value

IBSVEGAS

IMPROVE YOUR BUSINESS IN JUST 3 DAYS AT IBS 2016

ibs 2016DISCOVER THE BUILDING UNIVERSE

january 19-21 Las Vegas

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 13: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1316

13015 Issue 11 Builders Outlook

Association

News Events

JANUARY 6

LUNCH AND LEARN

NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 13

BOARD MEETING

12 NOON

EPAB OFFICE

JANUARY 19-21

IBS SHOW

LAS VEGAS NV

UPCOMING

EVENTSWELCOME BACK

SODA SPONSOR

BELLA VISTA CUSTOM

HOMES

Connect to the El Paso

Association of Builders

wwwelpasobuilderscom

innovative design

ampdesktop publishing

since 1984

ted escobedotedsnappypublishingbull com

talk amp text 915bull 820bull 2800

Get Creative Make it Snappy

Make your travel

arrangements now for

the 2016 International

Builders Show in

Las Vegas

Jan 19-21

brought to you by

Search No More The Associaion of Builders has a

NEEU Website strictly for

NEEU Homes

The finest builders in the

area showcase their

homes at

BUILDERS

Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home

Saratoga Homes

Contact Mario Duran

12300 Montwood DriveEl Paso TX 79928

915-855-1005

JOIN THE EL PASO

ASSOCIATION OF

BUILDERS TODAY

CALL 778-5387

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 14: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1416

The Costs of Not Having HealthInsurance

Itrsquos open enrollment time to selectyour health insurance plan for thecoming year

If you were thinking about skippingit this time around get ready to payregardless Fines for not havingcoverage are increasing For 2016they will be $695 for each adult and$34750 for each child up to $2085for a family Or it could be 25 percentabove the filing threshold says theIRS (individuals $10150 couplesfiling jointly $20300) whichever ishigher

How will the government find outwhether or not you have insurance

The law requires insurancecompanies to submit ldquoproof ofinsurancerdquo which includes thenumber of months you were coveredYou will get that notice and the IRSwill get it too The IRS will penalize allthose without insurance unless theyqualify for an exemption

If you are one of the 80 percent ofAmericans who get a tax refund thefine will be deducted from it If notthe IRS wonrsquot come banging on yourdoor The Patient Protection andAffordable Care Act forbids the IRSfrom using levies or liens to collectthe penalty

If yoursquove calculated that penaltieswill cost less than your annual healthinsurance premiums think again Yesmedical insurance is expensivemdashbut

so is medical care In a 2014 studyNerdWallet reported that

One in five American adultsstruggles to pay medical bills

More than 35 million will becontacted by collections agencies forunpaid medical bills

Nearly 17 million will have alower credit rating due to high medicalbills This could affect their ability toget a mortgage car loan or othercredit

Nearly 10 million will not be ableto pay for necessities such as rentheat and food due to medical bills

Nearly 2 million Americans live inhouseholds that will declare

bankruptcy due to medical billsIf choosing a plan overwhelms you

please call us As licensed insuranceprofessionals we have the expertiseto help you select a health insuranceplanmdasheven from the health insuranceexchanges And it wonrsquot cost youextra

Builders Outlook 2 15 issue 12

Yeaaaaaa Well the end of the

trail is here for me and now itrsquos time to

say goodbye after five years as the

associatersquos chair My job will be taken

over by John Dorney from DorneySecurity John is a good man and any

help you can give him will be

appreciated

I have enjoyed working with some

great Presidents and hardworking

executive board members I have

enjoyed the opportunity given to me to

be the Associates Chair This is a job

where you try to get as much help as

possible from the associates to makethe necessary budget and make sure

everyone has a good time at the

event

I want to thank Margret and Ray for

all the help that they have given me

over the years They have made life

much easier for every member of the

executive in my five years

So on that note have a very Merry

Christmas and Prosperous andhealthy New Year See you at the next

Pachanga

Sam ShallenbergerMorrison Supply

Joe BernalEmployer Benefits of El Paso

The cost of not havinghealth insurance

Associates

Council

Expert

Advice

14

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

Jaimersquos Courier

ServiceInc

915-549-4533or

915-478-2404

Bonded insured for

your peace of mind

Give your customersthe lsquooption of the sunrsquo

Now more than ever

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave

The future starts

todayCrossing to Clean Energy

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso TX 79912

(915) 613bull4168

follow us on twier and

facebook

BorderSolar

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 15: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1516

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616

Page 16: Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

7212019 Builders Outlook 2015 Issue 12

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbuilders-outlook-2015-issue-12 1616