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Bryan Hassler, Executive Director
Society of Petroleum Engineers
January 21, 2004Rock Springs, WY
2
The Problems Facing America………….
• High Prices• Declining Supplies in Traditional Basins• Lack of Access to New and Growing Basins
3
High Prices
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
J 2.050 2.115 1.645 3.448 3.998 2.309 1.765 2.344 9.978 2.650 4.970
F 1.600 2.460 1.460 2.340 2.986 2.001 1.714 2.610 6.293 2.025 5.660
M 1.940 2.395 1.445 2.746 1.780 2.286 1.693 2.603 4.998 2.395 9.000
A 2.260 1.955 1.575 2.779 1.807 2.409 1.852 2.900 5.384 3.410 5.120
M 2.760 2.060 1.673 2.214 2.122 2.262 2.340 3.089 4.891 3.340 5.110
J 1.980 1.850 1.750 2.361 2.122 2.017 2.226 4.406 3.738 3.430 5.960
J 1.940 1.945 1.505 2.646 2.145 2.358 2.262 4.369 3.182 3.305 5.330
A 2.130 1.780 1.340 2.322 2.161 1.942 2.601 3.820 3.167 2.900 4.650
S 2.360 1.455 1.530 1.853 2.515 1.672 2.912 4.618 2.295 3.325 4.880
O 2.045 1.415 1.647 1.828 3.324 2.031 2.560 5.312 1.830 3.695 4.440
N 2.185 1.675 1.780 2.652 3.266 1.972 3.092 4.541 3.202 4.140
4.460
D 2.400 1.720 2.285 3.901 2.577 2.149 2.120 6.016 2.316 4.140 4.880
Avg 2.138 1.902 1.636 2.591 2.567 2.117 2.261 3.886 4.273 3.230 5.372
Per Mcf Cost
Gathering (0.20)$
Dehydration
CO2 Treating (0.05)$
Compression (0.12)$ two stages plus fuel
TXU Transport (0.15)$ plus 1.5% fuel
Maypearl Sales Point (0.52)$ Cost from Wellhead to Sales Point
Basis to Maypearl (0.33)$
(0.85)$ NYMEX less this number is theapproximate netback for a workinginterest participant.
12 Month Nymex 5.26$ (0.85)$
Approximate Wellhead Netback 4.41$ /MMBtu
5
Declining Supplies
RatonRatonRatonRatonRatonRatonRatonRatonRatonBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
ParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxParadoxBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
Uinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinUinta BasinPiceancePiceancePiceancePiceancePiceancePiceancePiceancePiceancePiceance
BasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
D J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J BasinD J Basin
Greater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenGreater GreenRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver BasinRiver Basin
WindWindWindWindWindWindWindWindWindRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
PowderPowderPowderPowderPowderPowderPowderPowderPowderRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverRiverBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
BigBigBigBigBigBigBigBigBigHornHornHornHornHornHornHornHornHornBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
SanSanSanSanSanSanSanSanSanJuanJuanJuanJuanJuanJuanJuanJuanJuanBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin HugotonHugotonHugotonHugotonHugotonHugotonHugotonHugotonHugoton
Anadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko BasinAnadarko Basin
Permian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian BasinPermian Basin
WillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonWillistonBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasinBasin
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
MM
cf/
Day
Big Horn Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MM
cf/
Day
Wind River Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MM
cf/
Day
D J Basin
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
MM
cf/
Day
Green River Basin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MM
cf/
Day
Paradox Basin
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
MM
cf/
Day
Piceance Basin
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
MM
cf/
Day
Powder River Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MM
cf/
Day
Uinta Basin
Rocky Mountain Natural Gas Supplies(volumes in MMcf/day)
Anadarko BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
8,4752,9382,938
---
-2%-7%
Big Horn BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
2236767
---
-3%-15%
D J BasinPipe Capacity4Q '02 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
1,283598598 ---
+10%+52%
Green River BasinPipe Capacity4Q '02 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
4,2362,9912,989
2
+8%+9%
Piceance BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
605419415
4
+8%+51%
Hugoton EmbaymentPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
8,4751,7681,768
---
-9%-33%
Paradox BasinPipe Capacity4Q '02 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
140107107 ---
+1%+9%
Powder River BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
1,3481,089
175914
+14%+439%
ConventionalCBM
Raton BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
29522975
154
+27%+269%
San Juan BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
4,1003,9051,7292,176
-6%-1%
Uinta BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
865627349278
+6%+102%
Wind River BasinPipe Capacity1Q '03 Production Conventional CBMTotal Production Change 1 year 5 year
708580580 --
+16%+42%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
MM
cf/
Day
San Juan Basin
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
MM
cf/
Day
Raton Basin
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
MM
cf/
Day
Hugoton Embayment
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
MM
cf/
Day
Anadarko Basin
Alta Energy Consulting James G. Hoff (303) 471-4083 July 2003
6
Lack of Access
7
What Can Be Done???????????
8
Growth In Production
Wyoming Production From Major Plants and Fields (Sales)
Production is stated in MMCFD and is average daily production for a particular year.
Blacks Echo Lost Powder
Opal Granger Fork Springs Cabin PavillionRiver Basin
1998 545 172 89 303 35 82
1999 582 156 98 279 55 47 156
2000 645 139 127 295 78 50 403
2001 713 148 125 323 84 56 673
2002 839 189 89 346 91 68 848
Oct ’03 Average 1078 255 98 344 121 45 952
9
JonahUnrestricted Development
Jonah - Unrestricted Capital and Production Forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pro
du
ctio
n W
edg
es (
MM
CF
/D)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cap
ital
Co
lum
ns
(MM
$)
2003 = 70 wells/year2004 = 165 wells/year2005-2012 = 200 wells/year
Current Production
Future Development
10
Growth In Production – Colorado (Garfield County)
• 1999 154,000 Mcfd• 2000 190,000 Mcfd• 2001 241,000 Mcfd• 2002 315,000 Mcfd• March ’03 365,000 Mcfd• Going to? 1 Bcfd +
Major Operators include: EnCana, Williams, Calpine, Mesa, Tom Brown, Exxon/Mobil
Data Source: Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
11
Producer Critical Success Factors
• Access to Federal Lands• Gas Price• Timing of Regulatory Approvals• Gathering System Capacities and Pressures• Transportation Export Capacity• Capital Efficiency• Public Acceptance
12
Pipeline Projects In-service or Full Market Support
• Kern River Pipeline Expansion
• Williston Basin Grasslands Pipeline
• El Paso Cheyenne Plains Pipeline
13
14
Kern River Expansion
Kern River 2003 Expansion$1.3 Billion
Kern River 2002 Expansion$31.4 Million
Kern River 2003 Expansion$1.3 Billion
Kern River 2002 Expansion$31.4 Million
California Action Project
•135,00 Dth/d July 1, 2001
•53,900 hp of compression
•$81 million
Kern River 2002 Expansion
•Additional 10,500 Dth/d May 1, 2002
•21,000 hp of compression (6,000 new)
•$31.4 million
Kern River 2003 Expansion
•906,626 Dth/d May 1, 2003
•716 miles of 36 and 42 inch pipe
•160,000 hp of compression
•$1.3 billion
15
WBI Grasslands Pipeline
•80,000 Dth/d Nov 1, 2003
•247 miles of 16 inch pipe
•5,380 hp of compression
•Expansion to 200 MMcfd
16
Cheyenne
WY
MT
OK
KS
CO
NM
UT
AZ
Cheyenne Plains
NE
SD
Cheyenne Plains Pipeline
Capital cost: $336.5 MMCapital cost: $336.5 MMPipe: Pipe:
– 380 miles of 30"380 miles of 30"– 7 miles of laterals7 miles of laterals
Compression: 33,155 hpCompression: 33,155 hpCapacity: 560 MDth/dCapacity: 560 MDth/dExpandable to 1,000 MDth/dExpandable to 1,000 MDth/dIn-service: August 2005In-service: August 2005
El PasoEl Paso NGPLNGPLCIGCIG PEPLPEPLWICWIC WNGWNGNNGNNG TrailblazerTrailblazerANRANR MCMCMCMC
Greensburg
17
Pipeline Export Projects Proposed
• Kinder Morgan Advantage
• Northern Border Bison Project
• Enbridge Chicago Project
• Southern Star Western Frontier Project
• El Paso Ruby Project
• Kinder Morgan TransColorado Expansion.
18
Intraregional Projects
• Questar Kern Expansion• Northwest Rockies Expansion• El Paso Front Range Expansions• Xcel Front Range Projects• Kinder Huntsman Storage Project• Totem Gas Storage Project• Wyoming Interstate/Overthrust Backhaul
Projects• Jonah/Opal/Powder/Wind River
Gathering/Processing Expansions
19
Cost of Limited Infrastructure to Wyoming
• $130 + million in Federal/State royalties and severance taxes – 2002.
• $1 million per day in March 2003.• Stalled investment in development of mineral
resources.• Limited ability to predict revenues with certainty.
20
The Wyoming Pipeline Authority Will
• Promote all industry sponsored and supported projects.• Proactively promote infrastructure development within the state
and the Rocky Mountain Region.• Promote efficient utilization of existing infrastructure in a cost
effective manner.• Promote development of Wyoming’s mineral resource base in a
systematic, streamlined and environmentally responsible manner.
• Utilize its bonding authority to build or cause to be built infrastructure projects that will enhance state netbacks and promote development of a resource base that is in the nation’s best interests.
21
Thanks for the opportunity to speak with you.
Bryan Hassler
President - United Energy Partners, LLC
& Interim Executive Director - Wyoming Natural Gas Pipeline Authority
1625 17th Street, 3rd Floor
Denver, CO 80202
Ph 303-357-7314
Cell 303-748-6473
Fax 303-948-1428
Email [email protected]
Wyoming Pipeline Authority Presentations Can be Accessed via the Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Website at: www.wogcc.state.wy.us