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Brussels, 4 December 2013
Louise O. Fresco
Food in times of scarcity and abundanceFeeding future generations:
a few thoughts
1
A history of poverty and scarcity
2
A history of low yields, manual labour and no agrochemicals
3
Population vs scientific developments
genome project
high speed computers
discovery DNA
penicillinstart 1st agricultural revolution
start industrial revolution start 2nd agricultural revolution invention plow
1st irrigation worksrail roads
war on malaria
0
time (years)
Adapted from: Fogel & Robbert 1999
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
4
In the last century…
Life expectancy (x2)
Cost of food (:10)
Costs electricity (: 10)
Costs transportation (: 10)
Poverty (<1.25€/day) 1 in 2 in 1900, 1 in 8 today
5
Food availability per capita also in 3d world
50
75
100
125
150
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020year
Asia
S. America
SS Africa
Source: FAOstat 6
The spectacular success of agricultural science: productivity in the last century
land productivity x
5 - 6
labor productivity x
200 - 300
energy, other inputs
x 2 - 40,8
1,8
9
600
350
120
200
400
600
800
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
1250 1500 1750jaar
2000
7
8
Land pressure: areas where > 30% of the land is cultivated
9
Urbanisation
10
Changing urban diets
11
Climate change and fluctuation in rainfall
12
Competition for water
13
Future food systems
14
From craft to finetuning the industry
From adaptive (adapting to environment) to maximum control (fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation)
Resource use efficiency
Labor Greenhouse
production
Substrate production
15
Labour use efficiency
16
Trade-offs in animal production
17
Genetic modification?
18
Bio-based economy
Bulk crops (oil palm, sugar cane) for energy
Agricultural and urban residues for energy, compost, bio-materials and nutrient retrieval
Cascading and refinery
19
Multiple objectives
Environmentally friendly Animal friendly Landscape and biodiversity Socio-economic equity
20
Organic & small scalean ideal that will not feed the world (but may help)
21
Practicalities of sustainability(the 5 R)
Reduce Re-use Recycle Replace Redesign
(including legal and fiscal frameworks)
22
Megatrends: food and health
Vegetables, fruit and fish are good for health
Aim to produce health inducing component through choices in inputs, farming systems and processing: multiple unsaturated fats
Good Agricultural Practices: agricultural products free from residues (nitrate, pesticides)
Food safety: tracking and tracing (BSE, dioxine)
23
From food to fashion
flavours health
nutrition
chemicals & materials
energy
fibers fuel
fermentation products
fresh vegetables food crops
fodderfunctional
molecules
flowers fruits
farma fragrances
24
Future of animal production
25
Alternative proteins
26
18
Metropolitan agriculture
27
Biobased economy
Adapted
crops Newagrosystems
Biofuels Biomaterials
Biorefinery
28
Role of supermarkets
29
Safety in the food chain
30
…
Yes we can! But it will require all our efforts to create the scientific
basis for innovation and to enhance political support
31