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Understanding Trump’s Washington
10 Key Lessons for PACE
Bruce Mehlman &
David Thomas
March 21, 2017
PERSPECTIVE: We’re Still in the “Top of the First Inning”
1401 Days Remaining60
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/database/
Way Too Early for Conclusions… Team Just Starting to Arrive
2
TEN Things To Understand for 2017
3
The Road Ahead:
#1. The Disruptions Will Continue
4
By Design: Historically Outside-the-Beltway Cabinet
Source: NPR analysis of Initial Cabinet officials, updated Feb. 16, 2017
CABINETMEMBERS’
RESUME EXPERIENCE
Government Experience
81% 81% 91% 91% 57%
Military Experience
48% 48% 32% 9% 29%
CEO 5% 14% 18% 0% 24%
PhD 19% 24% 9% 23% 0%
#2. WH Still Establishing Its Rhythm
5
Competing Power Centers, Similar to 1993 Clinton WH
7
Bowling Green Massacre
Nordstrom’s
Alternative Facts
Fake News
Inaugural Crowd Size
OBAMACARE ABORTION TRADE ENERGY IMMIGRATION SCOTUS
So-Called JudgeHolocaust
Remembrance
#lastnightinSweden
Worst Deal Ever
NATO
#3. There is a Game Plan: Doing What He Said He’d Do
Mar-a-Lago
Wiretapping Trump Tower
Arnold & Apprentice
The Road Ahead:
#4. WINNING: Republicans (Trump’s Base) Very Happy
7
Republicans Rate Trump Higher than Reagan, Bushes(Dems Rate Him Lower Than Putin)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981 1989 1993 2001 2009 2017
President’s Own Party Approval
Opposition Party Approval
39
5249
76
49
36
Source: Pew, Feb. of President’s 1st Term, 1st year; (Gallup for ‘81 & ‘89)
#5. Loyal Opposition Demanding 100% Resistance
Consumers
Celebrities
Politicians
Grassroots
8
#6. HOUSE: GOP Politics vs. Policy
Source: Public dataset, Author’s calculations9
POLICYHouse Republicans Ran On :
POLITICSHouse GOP Districts
Carried by Trump Carried by Clinton
#7. SENATE: Supermajorities Scarce = Filibuster @ Risk
Republicans Need 8 Democrats to Overcome Filibusters
Most “Gettable” D Votes for Rs Most “Lose-able” R Votes
GLOBALISTS (Defense, Immigration)
MODERATES / VULNERABLE
PHILOSOPHICALLY-OPPOSED
McCAIN GRAHAM RUBIO
MURKOWSKI COLLINS
FLAKE SASSE PAUL
HELLER
YUGE TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS
MANCHIN (WV) (T +42.15%)
HEITKAMP (ND)(T +35.73%)
TESTER (MT)(T +20.42%)
DONNELLY (IN) (T +18.91%)
NARROW TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS
BROWN (OH) (T +8.13%)
NELSON (FL) (T +1.2%)
BALDWIN (WI) (T +0.77%)
CASEY (PA) (T +0.73%)
STABENOW (MI) (T +0.23%)
Democrats Need 3 Republicans for a Majority
BIGLY TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS
18
MCCASKILL (MO) (T +18.63%)
#8. WINNING2: Wall Street Exuberant
Near-Record Low Volatility
Record High Stock Prices Consumer Confidence Restored
Small Business Confidence Surging
11
#9. Global Picture Less Clear
Allies Uncertain Enemies Probing Alternatives Emerging
12
#10. Our System Is Resilient…
Checks Are Checking, Balances Are Balancing
13
THREE Conclusions for PACE
14
#1. Expect More Regulating, Less Legislating
SLOWER THAN WE THOUGHT1) Confirmations2) Health Care / Replacing ACA3) Funding rest of FY17/ Shutdown4) Tax Reform5) FY18 Funding / Shutdown6) Debt Ceiling / Shutdown7) Infrastructure Investment
16
FASTER THAN WE THINK1) Immigration Enforcement2) Energy / Climate / EPA3) Health Care regulation4) Trade Enforcement5) Labor (OT, IC, pay data)
6) Dodd-Frank reforms
The Road Ahead:
#2. Our Bipartisan Approach Serves Us Well
33
Unilateral Accomplishments Rarely Endure
Walking Dead Built to Last
42 Republicans + 12 DemocratsSenate: 60 Democrats + 0 Republicans
FCC: 3 Democrats + 0 Republicans
0 lawmakers voted to ratify
House: 236 Republicans + 178 Democrats
1996 Telecom Act
Medicare Pt. D
Passed Senate by Unanimous Consent
#3. Play the Long Game & Educate!
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pre-1992 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Democrats Republicans
House Members by Year of Arrival
Source: Public dataset, Author’s calculations21
New Administration
72% Rs, 52% Ds Never Served Under Republican President
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