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Bruce Mehlman Sept. 20, 2016 [email protected] follow @bpmehlman
The Great Debates of 2016
CONTENTS Do Debates Matter? (2-4)
Trump vs. Clinton (6-7) On Viewership (10-15)
49 Days Until Election Day
Do Debates Really Matter?
2
The Greatest Political Theater…
1960: Nixon Wins Radio, Loses TV
1980: “Presidential” Reagan Reassures
1988: Passionless Dukakis Disappoints
1992: “Fresh” Perot Surges
3
…Debates Can Surely Shift Momentum…
5.9 5.9 6
5.4
4.4
2.7
1.8 1.6
1.8 1.8
4
3.3 3.1 3.1
2.6
1.4 1.4
0.5
-0.7
1.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
D-2 D-1 DEBATE D+1 D+2 D+3 D+4 D+5 D+6 D+7
Bush '04 Lead Obama '12 Lead
Bush Lost 75% of His Lead in ‘04; Obama Fell Behind in ‘12
Days before / after 1st debate
Lead
in A
vera
ge o
f Pol
ls
4
…But Experts Detect Smaller Impact
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/03/what-political-scientists-know-about-debates/
“The effects of debates on eventual votes are likely mild, and, in most cases,
effectively nil. Moreover, what effects do exist are often caused by factors wholly
beyond the candidates' control, like media coverage, attractiveness, and whether voters are watching a Nats game in the
other panel of their TV.”
Wonkblog (Dylan Matthews, 2012)
5
Trump vs. Clinton Sizing Up the State of the Race & the Combatants
6
While Recent Momentum Has Favored Trump…
Source: RealClearPolitics averages as of 9/19/16 @ 5pm
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
012345678910111213141516171819202122232425
Average of the Polls: Clinton +1.3%
WEEKS UNTIL THE ELECTION
7
AVG
. PO
LLIN
G M
ARG
IN
Trump Leading >10
Trump Leading 6-10
Trump Leading 1-5
Tied Clinton Leading 1-5
Clinton Leading 6-10
Clinton Leading >10
98 Electoral Votes
23 Electoral Votes
113 Electoral Votes
11 Electoral Votes
69 Electoral Votes
55 Electoral Votes
169 Electoral Votes
Alabama Arkansas
Idaho Indiana Kansas
Kentucky Louisiana Montana Nebraska
North Dakota Oklahoma
South Dakota Tennessee
Utah West Virginia
Wyoming
Alaska Maine-2nd dist.
Missouri South Carolina
Florida Georgia
Iowa Mississippi
Ohio Texas
Arizona Colorado Michigan Nevada
North Carolina Virginia
Wisconsin
Maine Minnesota
New Hampshire New Jersey
Pennsylvania Rhode Island
California Connecticut
D.C. Delaware
Hawaii Illinois
Maryland Massachusetts
New Mexico New York Oregon
Vermont Washington
…Clinton Still Holds Electoral College Lead
Source: http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/ & RCP, updated 9/19 5pm
Obama 2012 state Romney 2012 State
8
Based on the most current polling…
Clinton 293 EVs; Trump 234 EVs
Incredibly Different Candidate Strengths & Weaknesses
• Low Expectations • Aggressive style
(helped Romney ‘12, Kerry ‘04)
• Very comfortable on TV (this is ultimate Reality TV)
STRENGTHS
• Well-prepared • Potential to contrast well
(on policy & temperament)
• Debate experience: 13 prior 1-on-1 debates
• Debate experience: 0 prior 1-on-1 debates
• Lack of policy depth • Bait-able into over-reactions
(bank account, hand size, e.g.)
CHALLENGES
• High expectations • Extensive history to defend
(votes, Foundation, email, etc. questions)
• “Lawyerly” style (Struggles with relatability)
• Appear Presidential (confident, informed, relaxed)
• Bait Clinton into style errors (e.g. Al Gore “sigh”)
• Make the case for change (does not sound like a politician)
HOW TO WIN
• Provoke Trump into bullying (e.g. Khans, Megan Kelly, McCain, immigrants)
• Show Trump uninformed, “risky” (e.g. nuclear triad, geopolitics)
• Ace hard questions calmly (e.g. Benghazi hearing)
9
“Tale of the Tape”
On Debate Viewership
10
73% of registered voters are
Very / Somewhat Likely to Watch
first debate
Source: Morning Consult, 9/19/16
May Be Most-Watched TV of 2016
10.3
12.94
15.5
17.8
20.2
20.4
27
31
33.8
34.4
34.9
100
111.9
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Game of Thrones
2016 American Idol Finale
Kentucky Derby
NCAA March Madness Final
NCIS
Big Bang Theory
Rio Olympics
NBA Game 7
Clinton's DNC Speech
88th Academy Awards
Trump's RNC Speech
2016 Trump vs. Clinton I
2016 Superbowl 50
Most Viewed TV Events in 2016
Estimate
Source: Nielsen 11
Though 9/26 debate up vs. Monday Night
Football:
Could be Most-Watched Presidential Debate in History
Source: Nielsen (thru 2004); 2000; 2008; 2012;
66 69.7
80.6
67.3 67.3 69.9
36.3
46.6
62.5 63.2 67.2
Estimated
100M
36.9% 32.0%
35.5%
28.5% 27.5% 27.3%
13.5% 16.5%
21.3% 20.8% 21.4%
30.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Millions of Americans Who Watched Most-Viewed Debate (and percent of US population)
Mill
ions
of T
V Vi
ewer
s %
of U.S. Population W
atching Debate
12
Most-Watched Global Event Ever? Unlikely.
2008 Beijing Olympics 2006 FIFA Finals 1969 Moon Landing
1973 Elvis from Hawaii 2011 Royal Wedding 1963 JFK Funeral 2015 Superbowl
2 billion 715 million 530 million
450 million 350 million 180 million 115 million
Source: http://www.listnbest.com/9-worlds-watched-television-broadcasts-ever/ 13
1 billion
2010 Chilean Miner Rescue
36.9%
32.0% 35.5%
28.5% 27.5% 27.3%
13.5% 16.5%
21.3% 20.8% 21.4%
62.8%
53.6% 52.8% 53.3% 50.3%
55.2%
49.0% 50.3%
55.7% 57.1% 54.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1960 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Viewership Turnout
Does Debate-Viewing Foreshadow Voter Turnout?
Source: Nielsen (viewership) 14
Higher Viewership May Mean Greater Turnout
Per
cent
of E
ligib
le V
oter
s (V
otin
g) &
Per
cent
of t
he U
S P
opul
atio
n (T
V)
BINGO GAME (in honor of Presidential candidates who are a combined 139 years-old)
Fill in Box When Candidate Uses Term Complete Vertical, Horizontal or Diagonal Lines
Crooked China Tax Returns
Putin Liar
Trump University
Fraud
Mexican
Deplorables
Iraq War
Goldman Sachs
Stamina
Radical Islamic
Terrorism
Winning
Atlantic City
Lousy Wedding
Gift
Benghazi Family Foundation
(either one)
Emails David Duke
FBI Bankrupt State
Dinners Transcripts Bill
Clinton
15
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