broadbandsatellite markets10th edition

A Worldwide Analysis of Industry Trends and Market Forecasts from 2010 to 2020

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S a t e l l i t e C o m m u n i c a t i o n s

B r o a d c a s t i n g & D i g i t a l M e d i a

h y b r i d & e m e r g i n g

a p p l i c a t i o n s

C o m m e r c i a l S p a c e

T h O U g h T L E A D E R S h i P

The foundation of NSR’s business is the ability to

continually help clients stay ahead of the curve

and anticipate trends before it is too late to react.

Whether it is a market research report covering a new

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This “first-to-market” approach has enabled NSR to

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globe. Never content to only provide analyses on

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coming applications and services across a wide range of

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S AT E L L i T E C O M M U N i C AT i O N S

From spacecraft manufacturing

and launching to the

applications

that drive capacity

supply and demand

B R O A D C A S T i N g & D i g i TA L M E D i AVideo is the core and

foundation of the industry,

typically accounting for

60% or more of total

revenues

h y B R i D & E M E R g i N g A P P L i C AT i O N S

NSR’s leading edge

coverage has shown that

satellite is more than ever

intertwined with the fabric of

terrestrial networks

C O M M E R C i A L S PA C EBeyond telecommunictions

services, Commercial Space

presents promising opportunities

for the space industry

“Studying the market for a decade, adding new value in every edition”

VSAT networking and broadband access continue gains; a turning point for IP trunking

The global economic crisis impacted the VSAT networking

market in most regions of the world through a large part

of 2010; however, the worst is now behind in nearly every

region, and the industry is looking ahead to growth and new

challenges in the years to come. Classic verticals like banking

and lottery are almost in a “semi-renaissance” period, while

government-backed rural inclusion, school network and USO

initiatives continue to see strong growth in many developing

markets. This NSR report describes these vertical markets in

detail and presents their drivers and challenges.

New in this Edition• O3b trunking & backhaul forecasts

• Trunking & Backhaul forecasts separated

• Narrowband VSAT projections included

The satellite broadband access segment chalked up solid

gains in 2010 with a net increase of some 141,000 subscribers

worldwide for the year. Yet, a new era is imminent for these

services with the successful launches of KA-SAT and Hylas-1

in 2010 and the expected launches of ViaSat-1, Jupiter and

YahSat-1B in the coming 18 months. And beyond this, concrete

endeavors are in the works for satellite broadband access

services in Australia, Russia, Latin America and elsewhere.

NSR continues to be the leading analyst firm assessing and

forecasting the satellite broadband access market in terms

of High Throughput Satellite (HTS) services. This analysis

continues to be extended into VSAT networking and backhaul

segments for the overall broadband satellite markets, giving

professionals a deep knowledge of the market, from the

big picture to detailed information per region and per

technology.

The IP trunking market had its turning point in 2010 and its

last strongholds, notably in Africa, are now under siege from

powerful market forces. Fiber and undersea cable deployments

are eating away at the base of IP trunking demand, first

swallowing the largest links and then progressively eyeing

smaller and smaller satellite trunking plays. This NSR reports

provides a detailed forecast for IP trunking, per region and per

band, allowing every IP trunking player to have access to the

necessary information to deal with this ongoing change.

The satellite backhaul situation is just the opposite. Backhaul is gradually adopting IP

technology, and TDMA deployments are expanding services to ever more rural and remote

locations allowing a profitable business even on the smallest of traffic demand. Further, USO

obligations are also behind the expansion of backhaul in a number of countries such as Brazil

and Indonesia.

Forecasting O3b trunking and backhaul demand and ...

The finalization of funding for the O3b constellation through to its planned launch of

commercial services in 2013 essentially seals the deal for this player and means the industry

must come to terms with the future impact of O3b on market demand. Following on work done

in NSR’s Wireless Backhaul Via Satellite, 4th Edition study, NSR has developed a new forecast for

uptake of IP trunking services using O3b capacity and combined this with its O3b demand

forecast for the backhaul market in order to offer to the industry the most comprehensive

assessment of the impact of O3b on the market.

This latest edition of NSR’s Broadband Satellite Markets report assesses O3b uptake within the

industry and provides a forecast of O3b capacity for provisioning of IP trunking and backhaul

services. Further, O3b is fully integrated into NSR’s sites, service revenues, and customer

premises equipment (CPE) sales for the trunking and backhaul projections. This is of course

in addition to highly detailed, region-specific sites/subscriber, service revenues, customer

premises revenues, and capacity demand projections for each traditional application studied

in this report.

... inclusion of narrowband VSAT networking for the most complete view of the market available

NSR has long forecasted the narrowband VSAT networking market within the context of its

Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand market studies. Starting in this edition of

the Broadband Satellite Markets report, this assessment of narrowband-provisioned VSAT

networks is now included here in order to provide an all-inclusive analysis and quantitative

assessment of the entire global VSAT networking market. Key applications such as lottery

as well as rapidly developing segments like SCADA typically make use of narrowband VSAT

networks and are growing rapidly around the world. Inclusion of the narrowband segment in

this study allows NSR to clearly illustrate the interrelated trends of the entire VSAT market.

r e g i o n s C o v e r e d

North America

Latin America

Western Europe

Central & EasternEurope

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Asia

nsr Coverage areas

Primary Questions addressed in this report include:What are the trends driving or restraining growth in the installed base of sites or subscribers for each market?•Which market segments and which regions are most likely to benefit from new demand or expansion of existing •services?Who are the main players in each industry segment, and what have been their key successes in the last year?•What are the revenues to be generated from service provision and customer premises equipment sales in each region •and market segment? What is the satellite capacity demand for each service in each region and how is this being provisioned?•Where is classic commercial FSS C- and Ku-band capacity being used for service provisioning, what is the impact of high •Throughput Satellites (hTS) on market take-up and capacity demand, and where does O3b capacity leasing come into play?

Primary elements of the report include:industry trend analysis including NSR’s qualitative assessment of each major market segment•A bottom-up forecasting approach based on detailed site and subscriber data•Results of the forecast in terms of bandwidth leased, bandwidth revenues, customer premises equipment units sold and •revenues for every market segment studiedMore than 300 detailed tables and charts•includes Excel sheets with all key data, tables and charts•Step-by-step methodology•Variance analysis for each market to highlight any changes between the current and prior forecasts in this market•

All clients of the Broadband Satellite Markets, 10th Edition report are also entitled to a Free half-day of consulting time with an nsr analyst. This time can be used to review report findings, interpret market forecasts and determine how the report information applies to your company’s business model.

key methodology updates and critical resource for nsr’s report library

The Broadband Satellite Markets 10th Edition continues to make use of a consistent method-ology for forecasting VSAT sites, broadband access subscribers, and trunking/backhaul sites. yet, the methodology is not rigid and has been revisited in key areas as necessary in order to most closely match actual trends in the real world.

For this most recent edition, NSR used a revised methodology specifically for forecasting capacity demand within the iP trunking market in order to fully include the impact of O3b on the market. The new capacity demand methodology results in the same historical demand estimates, but improves our forecasting accuracy and allows for a smooth integration of the O3B component into the iP trunking model.

Further, the Broadband Satellite Markets, 10th Edition study is a critical input into NSR’s Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand series of market studies and makes use of key data from the Wireless Backhaul via Satellite, 4th Edition study. This illustrates once again that all of NSR’s market research studies are fully integrated into a coherent library of detailed and highly granular research on the commercial satellite market.

e x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y

Market Overview and Key Findings

For VSAT networking services, some regions still felt impact of recession in 2010, while others are emerging strong with 2011 set to be even better

All in all, broadband VSAT networking services did quite well in 2010 with a number of regional markets like North America, Latin America, and parts of Asia and Central & Eastern Europe emerging in good shape from the 2009 global economic recession. Yet, there do remain a few other regions where service providers saw mixed results in 2010, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and a few countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. NSR believes that 2011 should offer steady improvements in these regions, and by 2012 there is a strong likelihood of a surge in demand for broadband VSAT networking services as enterprise spending picks up and satellite capacity becomes more abundant.

In many ways, the VSAT industry is going through a “mini-renaissance” in classic VSAT applications like lottery and banking, and NSR expects to see strong continued growth in narrowband VSAT services in the coming years. More importantly, NSR is often seeing these narrowband services upgraded to broadband over time, and this is a critical long-term trend in the greater VSAT networking market.

2011 to introduce a true paradigm shift in satellite broadband access services

The adoptions of High Throughput Satellite-provisioned satellite broadband access services will allow the industry to finally begin the process of “remaking” the satellite broadband access market into an offering that should compare favorably to aDSL services in many unserved or underserved markets. This is not to say that smooth sailing is guaranteed for the satellite broadband access sector. It will take a very substantial educational and marketing effort to remake the general public perception of satellite Internet access services being a “last resort” application, and the industry will still need to address the critical issue of the upfront cost of these services. Yet, NSR believes that the industry is up to these challenges and projects a better than fourfold increase in satellite broadband access subscribers in the coming ten years.

Last bastion of trunking begins to cede, while backhaul scores continued strong gains

Sub-Saharan Africa has long been the last major bastion of broadband satellite trunking services in the world. The industry has been expecting that the arrival of major new undersea cables as well as expansion of terrestrial fiber would negatively impact the trunking market in this region, and 2010 was the year that this was actually realized. Yet, there will remain niches for trunking demand long-term in most regions of the world, and the launch of O3b could even lead to some new net growth for trunking sites in the future.

Backhaul, conversely, continues its steady progress in many markets around the world, and NSR fully expects strong gains here. Further, use of HTS capacity has made real inroads in the backhaul market in Asia in the last year, and NSR would expect a similar trend in other regions to emerge in the coming years. NSR also anticipates that backhaul will become a key market for O3b in the future, and this will drive further gains in backhaul sites from about 2013 onwards. A final important trend of note is the growing use of broadband satellite backhaul to expand cellular coverage in order to meet USO obligations and rural connectivity goals set by governments in developing markets.

Global Broadband Satellite Market Forecasts

Putting together the combined global base of narrowband & broadband VSAT networking sites, satellite broadband access subscribers, and broadband trunking & backhaul sites, NSR estimated that the total installed base of sites and subscribers stood at 3.4 million in 2010. This is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.7% reaching 8.6 million in 2020. The largest share of this growth in sites and subscribers will come from satellite broadband access services.

Service and customer premises equipment (CPE) revenues for the broadband satellite industry are projected to increase by better than US$4.9 billion between 2010 and 2020. Service revenues, especially from satellite broadband access subscribers, account for the largest share of this gain. This clearly underpins the reasoning behind the move by a number of players into the satellite broadband access market.

Satellite capacity demand trends vary substantially by region and application. However, for classic FSS capacity it can be said that Ku-band dominates and will account for the majority of the forecasted global gain of leased transponders. Yet the real story is the emergence of HTS-provisioning of broadband services, notably satellite broadband access services.

NSR is a leading international telecom market research and consulting firm with a mission to provide unique insights & assist organizations in strategic decision making.

With an experienced group of analysts located in all regions, NSR is a premier global market research and consulting company.

NSR’s products and services cover all analytical aspects of each market, including both business and technical issues. A solid understanding of both issues is critical to understanding the current and future state of any market, so our team and offerings are built to tackle these stringent requirements. it is through this approach that NSR has assisted companies in many segments and regions to successfully plan for growth.

in addition to both products and services, NSR is often quoted as an expert in many leading publications such as The Wall Street Journal, New york Times, Financial Times, Washington Post, Time Magazine, Business Week, The Economist, CNN, Forbes, Network World, international herald Tribune, Total Telecom, Asia Times and Space News. NSR analysts are also frequently asked to chair and participate in telecommunications conferences around the world.

NSR clients range from start-ups to market leaders in various sectors of the telecommunications industry. The common theme across our clientele is the requirement for unbiased, actionable analysis that provides each company with the intelligence it cannot find elsewhere. it is this approach that has enabled NSR to stay ahead of the curve across all industries covered.

NSR is focused on emerging applications and services in the Satellite Communications, Broadcasting & Digital Media, hybrid & Emerging Applications and Commercial Space markets in all regions.

satellite CommunicationsFrom spacecraft manufacturing and launching to the applications that drive capacity supply and demand, the Satellite Communications research practice addresses the heart of the satellite market. NSR investigates every link in the market chain in order to provide an in-depth and granular analysis of all demand drivers and restraints that customers need in order to choose a future direction.

our goal is to help manager’s worldwide

plan for growth based on unbiased, actionable

intelligence and analysis

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a b o u t n s r

n s r C o v e r a g e a r e a s

b r o a d c a s t i n g & d i g i t a l m e d i aVideo is the core and foundation of the industry, typically accounting for 60% or more of total revenues, while other digital media applications show some of the industry’s fastest growth rates. NSR’s extensive coverage of this important market leverages its geographically diverse analyst pool to capture the regional differences of video traffic and digital media applications around the world. By analyzing growth in video channels and feeds, in addition to location of emerging video platforms and applications in each region, NSR is able to provide detailed market insight for our customers.

h y b r i d & e m e r g i n g a p p l i c a t i o n sNSR’s leading edge coverage of new hybrid and emerging applications has shown that satellite is more than ever intertwined with the fabric of terrestrial networks. By analyzing how convergence impacts competition and cooperation between these two worlds, this practice area helps unlock new growth potential for our customers.

Commercial spaceBeyond telecommunications services, Commercial Space presents promising opportunities for the space industry. Ranging from all aspects of earth observation services to navigation and positioning services and government space programs, NSR presents a wide-ranging analysis of demand for these applications as well as the all important aspect of public spending for space activities.

NSR is a global telecommunications consulting firm with vast experience in areas like Satellite Communications, Broadcasting & Digital Media, hybrid & Emerging Applications ,and Commercial Space . NSR’s consulting expertise has played a pivotal role in the board rooms of many large and dynamic telecommunications organizations across the region/sector. We help organizations in making the right business decisions with a focus on delivering the financial results.

Our consulting services are designed to suit your organization’s requirement in terms of quantitative and qualitative research drawing upon our collective experience of 100 years in the industry. Our analysis and insights help you focus on challenging issues and aid you in channeling your resources towards sustainable business strategies.

To know more about our Consulting Services please visit our website www.nsr.com.

n s r ’s C o n s u l t i n g s e r v i c e s

r e s e a r c h r e p o r t to p i c s gov’t and Military Satellite Communications

Broadband Satellite Markets

Machine to Machine (M2M) and SCADA

Mobile Satellite Services

Wireless Backhaul via Satellite

Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand

iPTV via Satellite

Advanced Satellite Coding and Modulation

Direct-to-home (DTh)

Digital Signage

Mobile TV and Mobile Video

Earth Observation

high Throughput Satellites (hTS)

Remote Sensing

Video Broadcasting

and more...

Place your order for the research reportson above topics at www.nsr.com

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P u r s u i t o f E x c e l l e n c e

C u s t o m e r P a r t n e r s h i p

R e s u l t O r i e n t a t i o n

F l e x i b i l i t y

O u r g l o b a l N e t w o r k