Broadband Adoption:Trends & Consequences

Presented at National Association for Regulatory Utility Commissioners meetingNew York, July 17, 2007

John B. Horrigan, PhDAssociate Director for Research

July 2007 2

Basic facts about communication technology adoptionBasic facts about communication technology adoption

• 71% of American adults are internet users (Feb. ’07)– 67% of adults have online access from home

• 93% of teens (ages 12 through 17) are online users (Nov. 2006)

• 70% of Americans who go online from home connect via high-speed (mostly cable modem or DSL)– That translates into 47% of all Americans with high-speed

at home• 34% of online users have used a wireless network to go

online (as of December 2006)• 74% of adults have cell phones• 63% of teens (ages 12-17) have cell phones

July 2007 3

Broadband penetration in the U.S., 2000-2007Broadband penetration in the U.S., 2000-2007

Home Broadband & Dial-Up Penetration (% of adult Americans)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-

00

Oct

-00

Feb

-01

Jun-

01

Oct

-01

Feb

-02

Jun-

02

Oct

-02

Feb

-03

Jun-

03

Oct

-03

Feb

-04

Jun-

04

Oct

-04

Feb

-05

Jun-

05

Oct

-05

Feb

-06

Jun-

06

Oct

-06

Feb

-07

Broadband Dial Up

July 2007 4

How does broadband adoption rate stack up?

• To reach 50% to consumer adoption it took:– 18 years for color TV– 15 years for the cell phone– 14 years for the VCR– 10 ½ years for the CD player

• Broadband should hit 50% by 9-10 year mark.• Happy dial-up users?

– Some 60% of dial-up users say they don’t want broadband, a figure that held constant from 2002-2005

July 2007 5

38%

55%

63%

36%

50%

59%

27%

38%40%

8%13%15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Home Broadband Adoption by Age, 2005-2007

2005 2006 2007

July 2007 6

29% of U.S. Hispanic population has broadband at home, 2006

31%

42%

48%

14%

31%

40%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

White Black

Home Broadband Adoption by Race, 2005-20072005 2006 2007

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10%

17%21% 20%

31%34% 35%

47%

58%

47%

62%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

LT HS HS Grad Some Coll College +

Home Broadband Adoption by Educational Level, 2005-2007

2005 2006 2007

July 2007 8

15%

21%

30% 27%

43%46%

35%

48%

58% 57%

68%

76%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Under $30K $30K-$50K $50K-$75K Over $75K

Home Broadband Adoption by Household Income, 2005-2007

2005 2006 2007

July 2007 9

Trends in rural broadband adoption at home

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

rural urban suburban

July 2007 10

Broadband: What for?– Home high-speed connection is key differentiator

in explaining internet usage patterns• Do more things online on the typical day than

dial-up users• Spend more time online than dial-up users

– Higher levels of internet impacts in:• Maintaining social networks• Helping in major life decisions• Information gathering (news, civic engagement,

research)• Gathering information about a health or medical

condition

July 2007 11

Trends in broadband adoption & daily online news usage

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50News Broadband

July 2007 12

Reasons for gaps

• Availability of offline substitutes• Usability• Relevance of content • Infrastructure availability