British Columbia Golf 2017 Golf Market Report BC Golf Market.pdf · 2017 BC Golf Market Report Jim Lee 3 1. Introduction This Report uses Vividata research data comparable to the

British Columbia Golf 2017 Golf Market Report

Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 1. Introduction 3 2. The BC Population 3 3. BC Golf Market Trends 5 4. Frequency of Golf Participation 7 5. Golf Participation by Women 10 6. Golf Participation by Age Segment 11 7. Core Golfers 13 8. Junior Golf Participation 16 9. Participation by the Millennial Generation 16 10. Participation by Ethnic Groups 19 11. Summary 20 12. Marketing Implications 20 Appendix 1 Data Tables 23

2017 BC Golf Market Report

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Executive Summary

British Columbia Golf has been gathering and analyzing data on the BC golf market since 2004 using data provided by the Print Measurement Bureau (PMB) and now Vividata. The results are consistent year-to-year using a similar questionnaire and results are weighted to the Canadian and BC population. In 2015, Vividata introduced improved survey methodology that provides faster results and increased sample size. The information in the 2017 BC Golf Market Report compares current (to September 30, 2017) to results from 2015 and 2016. Demographics play an important role in defining the BC golf market. Golf is a game played predominately by an older, more educated and wealthier segment of the BC population. Most Core golfers, who represent most of the rounds played in the province, are older than Casual and Infrequent golfers. The number of BC golfers in 2017 was down compared to 2016 and 2015 which were excellent years for the BC golf industry, but the 2017 total of 529,000 golfers (12+ years of age playing at least one round in past 12 months) was about average in comparison to the past 6 years. The participation rate of 12.6% is slightly below the average of the past 13 years. The decline in 2017 was largely influenced by declines in participation by women and seniors but may have been influenced by poor weather conditions in the spring and summer of 2017. The decline in the number of golfers, and particularly seniors, led to a drop in the estimated number of rounds played. Some Core golfers, who play the most rounds per year, played less than 10 rounds in the past 12 months and dropped into the Casual golfer category. When the circumstances that caused them to play less change, they may play more, but this decline may also be due to the gradual aging of the market. The BC golf industry was developed to a large extent based on the market demand of the Baby Boomer generation currently nearing or in retirement. As they age over the next few years, they will begin to drop out of the game. The golf industry will need to shift its focus on the GenX and Millennial generations who have different attitudes and behaviors that could influence their golf participation. In 2017, the largest segment of golfers is found in the 35 – 49 age segment. This may represent the beginnings of a shift in golf participation to the younger generations. It may also represent just a decline in senior golfers due to poor conditions. Chinese and South Asian ethnicities represent about 13% of the BC population so are an important market segment. This data shows that their participation rate is about the same as it is for all golfers, so the industry is doing well in developing these segments. Forecasts of the BC population by age segment are useful in assessing future golf participation. As Boomers age, the golf market will become younger providing golf participation rates remain the same as present


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1. Introduction This Report uses Vividata research data comparable to the methodology used in the 2016 BC Golf Market Report and continues a series of Reports prepared over the past 5 years. For more information on the methodology, contact the author. The data in this report is based on interviews completed over a 12 month period ending September 30, 2017, thus covering the last 3 months of 2016 (which are largely outside the end of the golf season) but not including the last 3 months of 2017. Respondents are asked to indicate whether they have played golf in the previous 12-month period, which is a standard definition of participation. Demographic and other information is obtained, along with participation in a wide range of sports. National data is available, and this report is based on a BC sample. The data only includes responses from those 12+ years of age. The national sample size for this data is approximately 40,000 and the BC sample size reported is 4,800. Most data is compared to 2015 and 2016 survey results, although some historical data is provided for trend analysis. Data tables are found in Appendix 1. One issue found in this, and other participation data, is the definition of “golf” participation. Recent research by the National Golf Foundation1 found differences between participation at golf courses and participation in “golf” at other venues such as driving ranges, and mini-golf. This research suggested that of the estimated 32 million golfers in the US, 8.2 million were “off-course” golfers, about 25% of all “golfers”. Their estimate showed that the number of “on-course” golfers continued to decline in 2016. Without further research, it is impossible to know how respondents to this survey would define “golf”. If in fact “off-course” participation in Canada is increasing, and survey respondents include “off-course” participation in their responses, the overall demand for “on-course” facilities could also be declining more than this data shows.

2. The BC Population The population of BC changes annually based upon immigration, emigration and natural growth. The adjacent chart shows the BC population as used by Vividata for weighting of survey results to the

1 NGF, State of the Golf Industry, November 2017.

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Chart 12017 BC Population (Vividata)


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population.2 While comparisons to 2016 data are not shown, it is interesting to note that the population of those 12 to 17 years of age declined from 301,000 in 2016 to 294,000 while the population of those 18 – 24 declined by about 3,000. The population segment of those over 65 years of age increased as more Baby Boomers moved into this segment by 53,000 people. This demonstrates the impact of changing demographics over even a short time frame. The following chart is based on data available from BC Stats3 which provides past population counts and future projections out to 2041. For simplicity, the years 2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 are shown in this chart and include data on 5-year age segments out to the age of 95 (for this usage, only to the age of 79). More importantly, it provides information on younger age segments than Vividata, so that projections can be made on the junior golf market.

First published in 1996, Boom, Bust and Echo author David Foot used demographics to examine the future of the Canadian population. Included in this was a forecast of the future of the golf industry. His techniques can be applied to the future of the golf market in BC by applying participation rates at different age segments to the population of the future.

2 Tables are provided in Appendix 1 with the data for each chart in this report. 3 www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/data/statistics/people-population-community/population/population-projections

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Chart 2BC Population Projections

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The current BC population is shown in blue in this chart and shows the Baby Boomer bump in ages 50 – 65 and a relatively small market up to age 14. In 2020 (in red) the Baby Boomer segment has aged and as an example, there are 40,000 more BC residents in the key (for the golf industry) 60 – 64 age segment. The number of young people has increased only slightly in this 3-year period but there are considerably more residents in the 25 to 45 age segments. By 2025 the number of residents in the 60+ age segments continues to increase as does the 25 – 45 age segments. As an example, in the 40 – 45 year age segment, there will be 60,000 more BC residents than currently. Finally, by 2030 (only 13 years away, well within planning horizons), the number of seniors continues to increase, while the number of GenXers peaks with the 35 to 39 age segment with 90,000 more BC residents than currently in this age. These population projections will have a considerable impact on the BC golf industry. The potential key market segment of 60+ will increase considerably and as long as participation rates hold, should provide a good market. Unfortunately, the number of young people will not increase very much as low birth rates continue. By 2030 there will only be 30,000 more babies in BC (0 – 4) than there are now.

3. BC Golf Market Trends Participation rate is the percentage of a population that participates in an activity – in this case golf. Participation is defined by the respondent saying they had played golf at least once in the prior 12-month period. Using participation rates allows better comparisons between years and between different provinces and the national figure. Prior to the 2015 data, BC Golf used data from the Print Measurement Bureau. Although the different surveys provide the same information, comparisons with previous data should be made with caution. The participation rate multiplied by the size of the population provides the size of the golf market. The adjacent chart shows the size of the BC golf market over the past 5 years. This illustrates the rebound in the market from earlier years. Over the past 6 years the number of BC residents playing golf has varied between 410,000 and 680,000. In 2015 there was a significant rebound in the number of golfers, followed by a small

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Chart 3Size of the Generational Segments

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Chart 4BC Golf Market Trend


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increase in 2016. However, 2017 saw a decline to 529,000 golfers which is slightly below the 6-year average of 547,000. As shown in the following chart, the participation rate changes on an annual basis, but over the longer-term follows a cyclical pattern.4 Participation has ranged between a low of 10% in 2013 to a high of 16.4% in 2016. Over the past 14 years, the participation rate averages 14%, so that 2017 is below average. The black line in this chart shows the trend line over this time frame, and shows a decline from about 15% to 13%. While this isn’t that significant over this time frame, an extension out 10 years could prove to be significant in influencing the number of BC golfers despite increases in the population. A continuing decline would be significant.

Participation rates are influenced by changes in the population such as aging. BC and most other First World countries are seeing fewer children being born. As Baby Boomers age and approach the age at which they can no longer participate, the participation rate will decline. This is addressed in a subsequent section. On an annual basis, other factors such as economics and weather play a role. If a prospective golfer finds poor weather in the early part of the season, they may decide not to play that year. Their clubs never make it out of storage. This chart shows some of the effects that economic conditions can play on participation. 2008 signaled a serious decline in the economy with another decline in 2010/11. Economic recovery creates increases in participation. Longer term data is also available on participation by males and females in golf as shown in the following charts.

4 The smaller the market, the more likely there will be annual swings. The data for all of Canada is much steadier as differences between provinces smooth out the cycles.

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Chart 5BC Golf Participation Rate Trend


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Over the past 6 years, there has been an average of 392,000 male golfers and 192,000 female golfers in BC. In 2017 there was a significant decline in female golfers from 2016 (which was a peak year for women golfers)5 and is below the average number of women golfers. The women’s golf market will be explored in greater detail in a subsequent section.

4. Frequency of Golf Participation While the number of people playing golf is of interest to the golf industry, most courses measure their success by the number of rounds played since this impacts their bottom line. Vividata provides information on how many rounds are played by three different segments of the golf market – Infrequent (1 -2 times past 12 months), Casual (3 – 9 times) and Core (10+ times). In 2015 and 2016, there were far more Infrequent golfers than Casual or Core golfers. In particular, the increase in the overall size of the golf market was largely due to an increase in the number of Infrequent golfers. As noted in the 2016 report, this should be a positive situation, as new golfers are being introduced to the game, and hopefully provide a pool of golfers who will increase their level of participation. This changed with the 2017 season, with a large decline in the number of Infrequent and in an increase in Casual golfers. More significant is that there was a decline of over 70,000 Core golfers who are responsible for generating the most rounds per golfer. The data suggests that the increase in Casual golfers came largely from the decline in Core golfers. The golfers responsible for most rounds played less in 2017. The decline in the number of Infrequent golfers likely means that they did not participate at all in 2017. 5 The 2016 BC Golf Market report shows that nearly all of the increase in the number of golfers that year came from an increase in participation by women.

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Chart 6BC Market Trend by Gender

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Chart 7Golf Market by Participation

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The adjacent chart shows the impact of these changes in participation on rounds played.6 Of the 3.4 million rounds which are estimated to have been played in 2017, Infrequent golfers accounted for 294,000 or about 8.7%. Casual golfers accounted for 37% and Core golfers 54%. While the number of rounds played by Core golfers declined by over 800,000 the number of rounds played by Casual golfers increased by about 500,000. Overall, this estimate (using the same process as in past years) shows the BC golf industry lost about 865,000 rounds (or 20%), almost all from Core golfers. This is significant. NGCOA Canada7 produces monthly statistics gathered from courses on rounds played and revenue. For BC courses, rounds were down 6.03% on a year to date basis (comparing same months to 2016) to November, 2017. In comparison to a 3-year average, rounds were down 5.23%. However, course revenue was up 3.06% on a year to date basis. In combination with this data showing fewer golfers in 2017, playing fewer rounds, they were spending more money at courses so that revenues (which is really the bottom line for courses) were up. The adjacent chart shows the relationship between the three predominant (for the golf industry) generational segments – Millennials born between 1982 and 2001; GenXers born between 1965 and 1981 and Baby Boomers born between 1945 and 1965.

6 As in past years, based on Infrequent golfers playing 1.5 rounds, Casual golfers playing 6 rounds and Core golfers playing 15 rounds in the previous 12 months. Changes to any of these would change the total number of rounds played, but the same averages are used for both years for comparison. The average number of rounds played by Core golfers can be determined from other data. Prior data from BC Golf shows that members play an average of 60 rounds per year. 7 NGCOA Canada Revenue and Rounds Tracking Report for November, 2017.

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Chart 9Participation Rates by Frequency of

Generation Segments

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The Baby Boomers had a significant influence on the golf industry from about 1990 on as they began to take up golf, and courses and resorts were developed to meet the expected demand for new facilities. There are about 1.35 million Baby Boomers in BC. The following chart shows the importance of this segment as they account for about 29% of all golfers. As noted previously, Core Golfers represent about 54% of rounds played in BC. Baby Boomers represent the largest segment of Core Golfers, with 47,000 golfers. The chart also shows the significant decline in Baby Boomer Core Golfers from a participation rate of 8.14% to 3.47%. Participation by GenXers increased in all categories of participation, particularly among Casual golfers but declined among Infrequent Golfers from 2016. Participation among Millennials increased among Casual Golfers but declined among Infrequent Golfers. These are positive. Data is available on the size of the golf market in Victoria and Vancouver for the past two seasons. Vancouver had 291,000 golfers in the 2017 season while Victoria had 41,000. The participation rates were similar in both regions, although Victoria had a higher participation rate among female golfers (5%) than Vancouver at 3%. The following chart shows the number of golfers in each market by frequency of participation for each of Victoria and Vancouver over the past two years. The 2017 season saw a large decline in the number of Infrequent golfers in both Vancouver and Victoria, while the number of Casual golfers increased considerably in Vancouver in 2017 which is a positive sign. However the number of Core golfers decreased in Vancouver in 2017. The number of Victoria golfers remained stable in both categories. The 2016 Market Report estimated the number of rounds played in Vancouver to be 2.11 million and the number in Victoria to be 265,000 following the same process as shown on page 7. In the 2017 season, there were 261,000 rounds played in Victoria and 1,992,000

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Chart 10Size of the BC Urban Golf Markets

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played in Vancouver. Thus the number of rounds played in Victoria was stable in the 2017 season, but the number in Vancouver declined by 5.5%. The following chart shows the distribution of rounds played by category of golfer. In Vancouver, 58% of rounds played were by Core golfers.

5. Golf Participation by Women The chart on page 7 shows changes in gender participation over the past 6 years. In 2017, there were 141,000 female golfers in BC, a decline of over 50% from 2016. However, 2016 was a record year for female participation with the longer-term average about 200,000 (skewed by the 2016 number). The overall participation rate for women is 6.66% compared to men at 18.6%. The participation rate for women declined across all frequency categories. One half of all female golfers are Infrequent Golfers with about 1/3 Core golfers. As would be expected with the overall decline in the female market, participation rates declined for Infrequent, Casual and Core female golfers. Participation dropped by more than 50% for Infrequent and Casual golfers, but with less of a decline among Core golfers. The adjacent chart shows the size of each of the age segments for women golfers. The market peaks in the 35 – 49 year age segment with 49,000 golfers followed by those in the 50 – 64 age segment. The following chart shows the percentage of women golfers in

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Chart 11Rounds Played in Victoria and

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Chart 12Participation Rates by Gender

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each age segment. 20% of women golfers are over the age of 65, but the largest segment is in the 35 – 49 age segment, representing 35% of women golfers. Far fewer women golfers are in the 2 youngest age segments. Women start playing golf at an older age than do men but more are playing in older age segments. Past reports have shown that household income is an important determinant of golf participation. Golf is a relatively expensive sport to play, and the accessibility to disposable income is important. The two highest household income segments ($75 K +) include 54% of women golfers and 60% of male golfers. However there is a major difference at the highest income level of $100,000 plus. 48% of men are in this income category versus 32% for women. The impact this has on women’s participation is difficult to assess.

6. Golf Participation by Age Segment The following chart shows the number of golfers in each of 6 age segments. Unlike population data shown in Chapter 2, which aggregates ages into 5 year period, Vividata aggregates respondents into age segments with a different number of years. Thus interpretation of the youngest age segments should be undertaken with care as they represent only 5 or 6 year age spans.

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Chart 16 Income Distribution for Women Golfers

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Chart 15 Income Distribution for Male Golfers

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Age is an important, if not the most important factor in determining golf participation. As will be shown in Chapter 8 and in the following Chart, few Juniors participate in golf, although Junior participation is up in 2017. In 2015 and 2016, the largest number of golfers were found in the 65+ age segment. This changed in 2017 with the number of Senior golfers declining by 67% to 70,000. In 2017 the largest number of golfers are found in the 35 – 49 age segment, followed by the 50 – 64 age segment. The number of golfers in the 35 – 49 age segment have been increasing steadily over the past 3 years. The results of these changes for the BC golf industry are mixed. A decline in Senior participation is a serious issue, as Seniors have typically had the highest percentage of Core golfers. On the other hand, the growth in the 35 – 49 age segment is very positive. 2016 was a very good year for participation by Seniors while 2017 was not. In 2017, the average participation rates across all age ranges was 12.6%. The three age ranges of 16 – 24, 35 – 49 and 49 – 64 were above this overall average, while the others were below this. The high participation rate of Juniors can’t be explained by the data as noted in Chapter 8. Participation rates are important to understand as they present a good comparison on an annual basis as to how well the golf industry is developing new golfers. In combination with the size of the population in different age segments, they can be used to forecast the size of the market over the short, medium and long term.

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7. Core Golfers As has been noted throughout this Report, Core golfers who golf more than 10 times per year represent the most significant market for the industry, generating the most rounds. As noted in Chapter 4, Core golfers accounted for 54% of the rounds played in BC in 2017. There were 121,000 Core golfers in BC in 2017 of the total of 529,000 golfers. The decline in Core golfers from 209,000 in 2016 represents a significant change in the number of Core golfers. In the previous Chapter 6, the decline in play by Seniors 65+ years of age was noted. The adjacent chart shows the percentage of Core golfers for each of the 3 generational age segments. Baby Boomers are included in both the 50 – 64 and 65+ age segments. However, both Millennials and GenXers have high percentages of Core golfers. The following charts and discussion provide more information on the demographics of this key market. All previous market research has shown that golfers are found in higher income households. The following chart compares Core golfers to all golfers and to the BC population. Nearly 2/3 of Core golfers come from households with incomes above $75,000. In comparison, 58% of all

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golfers come from high income households while 46% of BC residents are in high income households

There is no difference in the percentage of golfers versus the general population in the lowest income segment. This is likely due to a high percentage of youth in this income segment and a

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Chart 20Percentage of Core Golfers in Household Income Segments

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lower rate of participation in younger age segments. In the middle income segments, there are higher percentages found in the BC population. The percentages in the following chart show the participation rate (or percent of golfers) found in each age segment compared to the BC population. Among those 65+ years of age, 17.36% of Core golfers are found in this age segment, 13.23% of all golfers are found in this segment and 20.24% of the BC population are found in this age segment. The high percentage (20.06%) of Core golfers found in the youngest age segment is surprising given the relatively small number of golfers (data shows 86,000) found in this segment. This suggests that most Junior golfers are Core golfers. Reviewing this information should be made with caution though, as discussed in Chapter 8. The highest percentages of Core golfers are found in the two age segments of 35 – 49 and 50 to 64 age segments. Combined, these two age segments include over 50% of Core golfers. In both of these two segments, there were more golfers as a percentage than were found in the BC population. Not only is golf a game played by more affluent households, golfers are older than found in the population. The decline in Seniors playing golf accounts for much of the decline in Core golfers – in 2016 there were 113,000 Core golfers who were Seniors, in 2017, the size of this market segment declined to only 21,000. To put this in a more relevant perspective, in 2016 there were an estimated 1,695,000 rounds played by Senior Core golfers, in 2017 there were 315,000, a loss of 1.3 million rounds. Another important factor influencing golf participation is the household structure. The previous two charts show that golfers are older and more affluent than the population, and the following chart shows that they live in different household situations than the population. In comparison to the BC population, Core golfers tend to reside in either Empty Nester or in Couples with no Children living at home. A high percentage of Core golfers live as couples with children at home, to a slightly greater extent than found in the population.

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Chart 22Household Structure of Core Golfers

BC Population

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8. Junior Golf Participation Data has been gathered on golf participation by age segments for the past 6 years as shown by the chart on page 16. While Junior numbers have been shown in previous Market Reports, the number has always been presented with caution. Vividata shows the number of Junior golfers with the caution “Projection relatively unstable due to small base, use with caution”. The participation rate of Juniors increased in 2017 to 16.26% from 13.4% in 2015 and 8.64% in 2016. This increase is unlike other age segments where there were declines in participation. The data shows the number of Junior golfers increasing by a large number to 81,000, going against the trend in other age segments of decreasing participation. Any “real” increase should be substantiated against other data or information since the reported number goes against the longer-term trend of relatively stable participation. The discussion on the first page about the definition of a “golfer” could account for the reported number. Due to the unstable data, no further information on Junior golfers is included.

9. Participation by the Millennial Generation While there are some differences in definition of the year of birth for the generational segments, as noted earlier, Vividata defines Millennials as being born between 1982 and 2001 so are currently between 16 and 35 years of age. These are largely the children of Baby Boomers. The Millennials are of much interest to marketers due to the size of the segment and that they are entering their prime in terms of consumption of products and services. There are currently 1.3 million Millennials in BC, versus 1.1 million GenXers and 1.3 million Baby Boomers. They would be included in the 18 – 34 year age segments.

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Chart 23Number of Junior Golfers


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As noted in this and previous Market Reports, Baby Boomers have been the segment that stimulated growth in the golf industry throughout the post 1995 period. For this reason the following analysis compares the Millennials to their parents, the Baby Boomers. The discussion and charts on pages 8 and 9 serve as a preface to this analysis. In the 2017 season, there were 166,000 Millennial golfers and 151,000 Baby Boomer golfers. Thus, as might be forecast by demographic trends, the Millennial golfer segment is now the most important for the BC golf industry. However, while there are more Millennial golfers in the Infrequent and Casual segments, there are more Baby Boomer golfers in the Core segment. This means that there were an estimated 1.06 million rounds played by Millennials and 1.11 by Baby Boomers. The discussion in Chapter 6 shows that up until 2017, the participation rate increased with age. Golfers in the two oldest age segments would generally have more free time as they reach retirement age and disposable income and are more likely to be Core golfers. However, the 2017 season saw a decline in the number of Senior golfers which hopefully does not indicate a future trend. While the current participation rates are generally positive, the Millennial generation will be a challenge for the golf industry. A recent summary article concluded, “we're (the golf industry) not alone in our suffering in either participation decline or decreased involvement from the ME generation but our other peer sports(tennis and skiing) are having more success in either their native appeal to this lifestage/generational group or they've developed more creative programs that are resonating with this group's recreational preferences.”8 Recently, the National Golf Foundation released new information on the US golf market “The National Golf Foundation's annual study of golf participation in the United States found that 36

8 Pellucid newsletter Volume 16 Number 10.

55

76

35

4757

47

0

20

40

60

80


Chart 24Frequency of Participation

Millennials - 166,000 Baby Boomers - 151,000

144

22

99

53

0

100

200

Male Female

Chart 25Gender of Millennials and Baby

Boomers

Millennials - 166,000

Baby Boomers - 151,000


Jim Lee 18

percent of the nearly 24 million golfers in the United States are young adults aged 18 to 39, and over 15 million additional millennials expressed interest in taking up the game. This increase has millennials on track to overtake all other age groups as the largest market share in the sport, and many in the industry have taken note.”9 Among Baby Boomer golfers, females represent 35% of golfers, among Millennials, females represent only 13% of golfers. This represents both an issue and an opportunity for the golf industry. Among all golfers, those with household incomes over $100,000 represent 1.1 million golfers, or 31% of all golfers, and a further 13.5% live in households with incomes over $75,000 so that golf is clearly an activity played by those with high incomes.

In comparison, those living in households with incomes over $75,000 represent 41% of Millennial golfers. Among Baby Boomers, 67% live in these high income households. However, as the Millennial generation includes those in the 18 – 24 age segment who would not necessarily be working yet, this would be expected. Millennials are not yet Core golfers as the above chart shows. However, the size of the market did increase in 2017 by 7,000 golfers. This was against a general decline in the overall golf market, and particularly Baby Boomer golfers where the market saw a loss of 66,000 golfers. In 2017, the difference in the size of the markets for these two generations is much less than previously.

9 Referenced in CNBC article by Aliea Clark, October 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/12/millennials-breathing-new-life-into-golf-and-heres-how-the-industry-is-responding.html

28 35

113

47

0

50

100

150

2016 2017

Chart 28Size of the Core Golfer Market

Millennials Baby Boomers

36%

23%8%

33%

Chart 27Millennial Golfer Income

Distribution

< $50 $50 - $75 K $75 - $100 K $100 K +

18%

15%

17%

50%

Chart 26 Baby Boomer Golfer Income

Distribution

< $50 $50 - $75 K $75 - $100 K $100 K +


Jim Lee 19

10. Participation by Ethnic Groups ΩA lengthy section of the 2016 Market Report discussed the impact of immigration and the growth of the ethnic markets on the BC population. Immigration accounts for nearly all of the growth in the population of BC and is focused on the Lower Mainland. In 2017, Vividata reports that in BC there are 189,000 Aboriginals, 261,000 residents of South Asian ethnicity and 270,000 Chinese residents (all 12+ years of age). These three ethnic groups alone account for 17% of the BC population and so represent an important potential market for the BC golf industry. Data from the past 3 years of Vividata reports has shown that the ethnic golf markets have increased for Aboriginals and for South Asians. The number of South Asian golfers increased by 47% in the 2017 season, representing 59,000 golfers. The number of Chinese golfers has declined since 2015. In 2017, South Asian and Chinese golfers participate to a greater extent than do all golfers as Infrequent golfers, as well as Casual golfers. They participate to a slightly less extent as Core golfers than do all golfers. There was remarkable growth in Casual South Asian golfers in 2017. Generally, participation by South Asian and Chinese golfers is as good as, or better than among all golfers. Except among Core golfers, each of these two markets saw an increase in participation rates in 2017. The next two largest ethnic groups by population are Latin/Central/South American with 87,000 and West Asian with 60,000 BC residents. Both have data on golfers too low to report.

4.76.9

3.42

13.79

4.7

1.922.73

4.81 5.47 5.564.3 2.22

.2.4.6.8.

10.12.14.16.

Chart 30Fequency of Participation of Ethnic

Groups

South Asian Chinese

17.7 14 2220.831

5944

31 33

0

50

100

2015 2016 2017

Chart 29Size of the BC Ethnic Golf Markets

Aboriginal

South Asian (East Indian, Pakistani, Sri Lankan, etc.)

Chinese


Jim Lee 20

11. Summary

1. The data used in this report follows the same methodology as found in the 2015 and 2016 Market Reports, so data is comparable with those two years. In 2017, an additional set of banners were requested which provided the information on the generation segments, seniors, juniors, males and females.

2. Population aging in BC will have long term impacts on the golf market in BC (and elsewhere) that will shift the target markets. This shift appears to begin to happen in 2017.

3. 2017 saw a decline in golfers, but the decline was within the historical range for golf participation. The 2017 decline looks worse against a record 2016 season. The decline could easily have been due to poor weather in the early season, heat and wildfires in the summer, particularly in the Interior.

4. A large part of the decline in 2017 was due to decreases in participation by women and by seniors. As seniors are likely to be Core golfers, the impact on rounds lost in 2017 was significant. The decline in play by seniors could be due to the reasons given above, but could also be due to the gradual aging of the market taking place and seniors retiring from the game.

5. The decline in participation by women brought the number down to historical levels but looks bad in comparison to a record 2016.

6. The decline in the number of Core golfers of about 80,000 from 2015 and 2016 impacted rounds played and largely contributed to a loss of 865,000 rounds for the Province. It appears that at least some Core golfers played less in 2017 and moved into the Casual golfer category. They haven’t necessarily moved out of the game and this number could rebound in 2018.

7. The data on golf participation by the three generational segments shows the potential of the Millennials and GenXers to replace Baby Boomers as they age over the next 10 years or so. Further analysis of the data indicates differences between Baby Boomer golfers and these two younger segments that could influence participation. Much will depend on whether the participation rate of Baby Boomer golfers will apply to these segments as they reach into near-retirement and retirement age. Different forecasts could be developed to examine this issue.

8. There is enough confidence in the survey and historical data to project out the size of the golf market for the medium term. While there will be variances from these projections on an annual basis, the longer-term trend should apply.

9. The Chinese and South Asian ethnic groups represented 92,000 golfers in 2017 down from 2016. They represent 17% of all golfers but only 13% of the BC population. Their participation rate is about the same as for all golfers.

12. Marketing Implications

• The 2017 participation remains within the range of past swings in participation. Both 2015 and 2016 were very positive years for golf in BC and the decline in 2017 from those years is disappointing, but not drastic. 2017 could be considered an average year


Jim Lee 21

over the longer term, although comparisons to past year-to-date numbers will not be positive.

• Anecdotal and other evidence suggests that weather may have played a major role in

influencing participation. The NGCOA is collecting data on weather influences and this could be matched up against rounds played for further analysis. Pellucid (a golf market research and analysis firm in the US) does this for US regions combining “golf playable hours” with rounds played.

• Golf continues to be a game played by the more affluent households and by middle age

and older participants. Golf participation doesn’t really begin until mid 30’s. Should this age segment be the one for “learn to golf” programs be developed? Should the industry focus on making it easier for Millennials to take up the game? Millennials have personal, financial and work-related issues to focus on, but the golf industry could make it easier for them to try the game and increase their long-term engagement for when they do have more discretionary time and income.

• The participation by Chinese and South Asians in golf is as strong as found in the

general population which indicates they are adopting the game. Their participation as Core golfers is slightly below average though, and programs to reach these two ethnic markets should focus on increasing engagement with the game and finding ways to increase their participation as Core golfers. Specific programs by individual courses would be of benefit, but province wide programs don’t appear necessary. In any cast, these two ethnic groups tend to reside in specific geographical areas.

• The decline in participation by seniors (particularly Core golfers) could be due to external circumstances as mentioned. If the weather is poor, they may simply decide not to play and end up playing less over a season. 2017 was an exception to the longer term trend, but it may also herald the beginnings of a decline in their play in general due to poor health or financial and family circumstances. 2018 data will begin to either confirm the trend or show a return to higher frequency of play if the 2018 season has better conditions.

• With the decline in Senior golfers, the 35 – 49 age segment now represents the largest

market for golf, followed closely by 50 – 64. In addition to being larger segments, they also have higher rates of Core participation than do Seniors in the 2017 data. As noted, the decline in Seniors may just be an anomaly, but the findings indicate a shift towards a younger golf market. If sustained, this is a very positive finding as it suggests greater sustainability of the golf market.

• Despite what appears to be a significant increase in Junior golfers (age 12 – 17) in

2017, the number, as in past years, is not presented with any confidence due to the low sample size. This doesn’t necessarily mean there are few Junior golfers. Part of the issue is that there are few BC residents in this age range which makes it difficult to pick


Jim Lee 22

up golfers in the sample. As an example, there are 151,000 (or 50%) more BC residents in the 18 – 24 age range than in the 12 – 17 age range (294,000). This issue will make it difficult to use this dataset to measure the impact of any programs focusing on youth. Other means would be needed to evaluate these programs.

• While this report focused on Millennial golfers, the GenX segment also shows potential

to provide future Core golfers. The development of programs to build engagement with these two segments would be good long-term strategy. Both generations though, have differences in attitudes and behaviors that are different from Baby Boomers that will affect their participation in the game. These differences are described in other consumer marketing research and can be applied to golf within an overall marketing plan. Specific marketing plans should be developed to address these differences and some changes in the game may be necessary. These two segments are the future of the game over the next two decades.

• As suggested in the report, combining current participation rates for age segments with

population forecasts by age segments would provide indications of future target markets. These would provide forecasts out for any time frame. In addition, this process would shed some light on whether the upcoming Millennial and GenX generations have lower participation rates than did Baby Boomers when they were in that age range.10

10 If Baby Boomers had a participation rate of 13% when they were 30 – 35 years of age, how does this compare to current Millennial participation. If Millennial participation is lower, does this mean that their participation when they are 65+ will be lower as well.


Jim Lee 23

Appendix 1 Data Tables

The following tables provide the data behind each of the charts in the report and table numbers correspond to chart numbers. Table 1 – 2017 BC Population (Vividata) 12 to 17 294

18-24 445

25-34 645

35-49 945

50-64 1,019

65+ 850

Millenials (1982-2001) 1326

Gen X (1965-1981) 1118

Boomers (1945-1965) 1353

Table 2 – BC Population Projection 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24

2017 228.8 235.2 234.6 261.2 331.2

2020 237.4 237.1 244.6 245.6 310.2

2025 252.1 250.5 250.7 259.1 270.2

2030 258.4 265.5 264.6 265.8 284.2

25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54

327.1 332 323.2 306.2 328.8 344.5

353.7 346.8 348.5 321.7 319.4 330.3

347 391.1 373.7 367.5 333.7 324.9

307.9 385.8 419.1 393.5 379.8 339.4

55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79

355.1 325.3 284.9 220.1 152.4

360.5 345.7 304.4 259.2 175.9

333.4 361 342.1 292.7 236.3

328.5 335.3 358.2 330.2 269.2

Table 3 – Size of the Generational Segments iof the BC Population 2016 2017

Millennials 1281 1326

GenXers 1086 1118

Baby

Boomers 1389 1353


Jim Lee 24

Table 4 – BC Golf Market Trend

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

564 444 410 656 680 529

Table 5 – BC Golf Participation Rate Trend

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 16 15 15 15.9 11.3 15.3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15.3 14.4 10.9 10 11.2

2015 2016 2017

15.8 16.4 12.6

Table 6 – BC Market Trend by Gender 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Male 359 295 317 508 368 388

Female 205 149 196 148 311 141

Table 7 – Golf Markets by Participation 2015 2016 2017

Infrequent 290 357 196

Casual 158 126 212

Core 208 197 121

Total 656 680 529

Table 8 – Rounds Played by Frequency of Participation 2015 2016 2017

Infrequent 435 535.5 294

Casual 948 756 1272

Core 3120 2955 1815

Total 4503 4246.5 3381

Table 9 – Participation Rates by Frequency of Participation of Generational Segments

2016

Infrequent

2017

Infrequent 2016 Casual 2017 Casual 2016 Core

Millennials 9.13 4.15 1.33 5.73 2.19

Gen X 10.13 6.8 3.13 5.01 0.55

Baby

Boomers 7.27 3.47 4.61 4.21 8.14


Jim Lee 25

Table 10 – Size of the BC Urban Golf Markets

Infrequent

2016

Infrequent

2017

Casual

2016

Casual

2017 Core 2016 Core 2017

Victoria 31 18 14 14 9 10

Vancouver 166 98 63 115 99 77

Table 11 – Rounds Played in Victoria and Vancouver Infrequent Casual Core Total

Victoria 27 84 150 261

Vancouver 147 690 1155 1992

Table 12 – Participation Rates by Gender Infrequent Infrequent Casual Casual

2017 2016 2017 2016

Male 6.01 10.03 8.94 4.7

Female 3.4 7.18 1.18 2.9

Table 13 – Age Distribution for Women and Men Women Men

18 - 24 7 53

25 - 34 25 15

35 - 49 49 93

50 - 64 41 91

65 + 29 41

Table 14 – Percentage of Male and Female Golfers by Age Segment Men Women

12 to 18 12 0

18 - 24 13.66 4.96

25 - 34 6.44 10.64

35 - 49 23.97 34.75

50 - 64 23.45 29.08

65 + 10.57 20.57


Jim Lee 26

Table 15 – Income Distribution for Male Golfers Number Percent

Under $25 k 54 14%

$25 - $35K 16 4%

$35 - $50 K 25 7%

$50 - $75 K 59 15%

$75 - $100

K 46 12%

$100 K + 187 48%

Table 16 – Income Distribution for Female Golfers Number Percent

Under $25 k 10 7%

$25 - $35K 9 7%

$35 - $50 K 8 6%

$50 - $75 K 37 26%

$75 - $100 K 31 22%

$100 K + 45 32%

Table 17 – Golf Market by Age Segment 2015 2016 2017

12 to 17 40 26 86

18-24 69 57 60

25-34 102 73 40

35-49 123 134 142

50-64 183 166 132

65+ 139 214 70

Table 18 – Participation Rates by Age Segment 2015 2016 2017

12 to 17 13.4 8.64 29.25

18-24 15.5 14.96 13.48

25-34 16 7.36 6.2

35-49 12.9 10.19 15.03

50-64 18 16.29 12.95

65+ 17.4 26.85 8.24

All segments 15.8 16.36 12.6

Table 19 – Percentage of Core Golfers by Generation 2016 2017

Millennials 19.0 28.93

Gen X 4.1 26.45

Baby Boomers 76.9 38.84


Jim Lee 27

Table 20 – Percentage of Core Golfers in Household Income Segments

Core Golfers All Golfers

BC

Population

< $25K 11.57 12.1 12.45

$25 - $34 K 4.96 4.73 10.98

$35 - $49 K 3.31 6.43 11.74

$50 - $74 K 11.57 18.34 18.5

$75 - $99 K 17.36 14.56 13.62

$100 K + 51.24 43.86 32.69

Table 21 – Percentage of Core Golfers by Age Segment

Core Golfers All Golfers

BC

Population

12 to 17 20.06 16.26 7

18 - 24 2.48 11.34 10.6

25 - 34 9.92 7.56 15.36

35 - 49 23.97 26.84 22.5

50 - 64 26.45 24.96 24.26

65 + 17.36 13.23 20.24

Table 22 – Household Structure of Core Golfers

Core

Golfers

All

Golfers

BC

Population

Couple with Children Living at

Home 46.28 54.06 43.55

Couple No Children Living at

Home 30.58 19.85 21.21

Adult With Children Living at

Home 1.65 6.81 7.12

Adult Living Alone 9.09 6.81 11.81

Adult Sharing Accomodation 5.79 7.56 10.81

Empty Nester 19.01 13.8 15.98

Other 6.61 4.91 5.5

Table 23 – Number of Junior Golfers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand golfers 20 15 22 40 26 86

Table 24 – Frequency of Participation by Generational Segments Infrequent Casual Core

Millennials -

166,000 55 76 35


Jim Lee 28

Baby Boomers -

151,000 47 57 47

Table 25 – Gender of Millennial and Baby Boomer Golfers Male Female

Millennials - 166,000 144 22

Baby Boomers - 151,000 99 53

Table 26 – Baby Boomer Golfer Income Distribution Number Percent

< $50 28 18%

$50 - $75 K 23 15%

$75 - $100 K 25 17%

$100 K + 75 50%

Table 27 – Millennial Golfer Income Distribution Number Percent

< $50 60 36%

$50 - $75 K 38 23%

$75 - $100 K 13 8%

$100 K + 55 33%

Table 28 – Size of the Core Golfer Market by Generation 2016 2017

Millennials 28 35

Baby Boomers 113 47

GenXer 6 32

Table 29 – Size of the BC Ethnic Golf Markets 2015 2016 2017

Aboriginal 17.7 14 22

South Asian (East Indian,

Pakistani, Sri Lankan, etc.) 20.8 31 59

Chinese 44 31 33

Table 30 – Frequency of Participation of Ethnic Groups All Golfers Infrequent Casual Core

South Asian 13.25 4.7 3.42 4.7

Chinese 12.11 2.73 5.47 4.3

Documents

British Columbia Golf 2017 Golf Market Report BC Golf Market.pdf · 2017 BC Golf Market Report Jim Lee 3 1. Introduction This Report uses Vividata research data comparable to the