Breaking Myths, Establishing EvidenceDanny Dorling – Sheffield University

Race and Religion Statistics from the Census: What can you make of them?Local Government Association, Smith

Square, 8/12/2003

Some Context to Census

How myths can begin:

Letter to Clement Atlee, Prime Minister, signed by 11 Labour MPs 1948:

“An influx of coloured people domiciled here is likely to impair the harmony, strength and cohesion of our public and social life and to cause discord and unhappiness among all concerned”

Allaying fears about numbers

Margaret Thatcher 1978. Pre-election speech:

“People are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture… the British character has done so much for democracy, for law, and done so much throughout the world, that if there is any fear that it might be swamped, people are going to react and be rather hostile to those coming in. So if you want good race relations, you’ve got to allay people’s fears about numbers”

Swamping half a century on

David Blunkett, Secretary of State at the Home Office, 2002 (The Today Program, BBC Radio Four 24/04/02):

"Whilst they're going through the process, the children will be educated on the site, which will be open. People will be able to come and go, but importantly not swamping the local school."

What Censuses Count

Census

(Britain)

Minority – as defined

At the time of each

Census and used..

Count Population Share

1971 Born in or both parents born in the New Commonwealth

2,287,804 53,978,598 4.24%

1981 Born in the New Commonwealth or Pakistan

1,513,345 53,555,566 2.83%

1991 Non-white ethnic minority group

3,011,305 54,856,166 5.49%

1981 Census White Paper

• “In addition, there is a need for authoritative and reliable information about the main ethnic minorities. In order to help in carrying out their responsibilities under the Race Relations Act, and in developing effective social policies, the Government and local authorities need to know how the family structure, housing, education, employment and unemployment of the ethnic minorities compare with the conditions in the population as a whole. Any study of community relations must start from a knowledge of the demographic, social and economic characteristics of the ethnic minorities and, in particular, from knowledge of changes in their geographical distribution. The census, which is comprehensive and confidential, would provide much of this basic information” (Command Paper 7146, 1978, paragraph 24).

The 1991 Ethnicity Question

Ethnic Group White Black-Caribbean Please tick the appropriate box Black-African Black-Other

(please describe) If the person is descended from more than Indian one ethnic or racial group, please tick the Pakistani group to which the person considers he/she Bangladeshi belongs, or tick the ‘Any other ethnic group’ Chinese box and describe the person’s ancestry in the space provided

Any other ethnic group (please describe )

2001 Ethnicity QuestionWhat is your ethnic group? Choose ONE section from A to E, then √ the appropriate box to indicate your cultural background.

A

White

British

Irish

B

Any other White background

please write in

Mixed

White and Black Caribbean

White and Black African

White and Asian

Any other Mixed background

please write in

C Asian or Asian British

Indian Pakistani

D

Bangladeshi

Any other Asian background

please write in

Black or Black British

Caribbean African

E

Any other Black background

please write in

Chinese or other ethnic group

Chinese

Any other, please write in

2001 religion questionWhat is your religion? This question is voluntary. √ one box only

None

Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations)

Buddhist

Hindu

Jewish

Muslim

Sikh

Any other religion, please write in

What ‘Nots’ 2001 Counted

Census

(Britain)

Minority – as defined

At the time of each

Census and used..

Count Population Share

2001 Not White British, White Other, White Irish nor White Scottish

4,602,730 57,103,929 8.06%

2001 Not White, Other, nor Mixed

3,374,887 57,103,929 5.91%

2001 Religion – not none, Christian, nor Jedi

2,983,555 57,103,929 5.22%

Censuses are only snapshots

Other Sources are needed

-20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

Black Caribbean 566 to 561

White 44,690 to 44,679

Indian 866 to 1,029

Chinese 155 to 221

Pakistani 480 to 707

Bangladeshi 168 to 275

Other 708 to 1,191

Black African 243 to 476

Natural change from 1991 to 2001

(Indirect estimation of) Net Migration

Total change

size of ethnic group1991to 2001 (000s)

Dispersal in EnglandPakistani

Quintile Population

in 1991 % in

1991

Number of

Districts Population

in 2001 Growth

91-01 1 Lowest 95,970 0% 312 149,794 +56% 2 Low 96,789 2% 20 138,804 +43% 3 Medium 93,565 4% 13 136,969 +46% 4 High 57,765 6% 5 82,791 +43% 5 Highest 138,267 8% 4 198,395 +43% Total 482,356 1% 354 706,752 +47%

Indian

Quintile Population

in 1991 % in

1991

Number of

Districts Population

in 2001 Growth

91-01 1 Lowest 173,116 0% 300 228,265 +32% 2 Low 175,015 3% 33 192,542 +10% 3 Medium 155,522 6% 9 181,708 +17% 4 High 182,288 10% 8 210,306 +15% 5 Highest 185,311 18% 4 215,719 +16% Total 871,252 2% 354 1,028,539 +18%

What Stereotypes are wrong?

• Who’s married with children

• Who’s qualified

• Who has a degree

• Who has no qualifications

• How are the geographies of ethnic groups changing and what are the geographies of religious groups identified in 2001?

Who with children is married?

Households with children, England and Wales, 2001

Households with children in England and Wales 2001

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Caribbean/ WhiteOther Black

CaribbeanAfrican /White

AfricanOther MixedAsian /White

IrishALL HOUSEHOLDS

White BritonPakistani

BangladeshiOther AsianOther White

OtherIndian

Chinese

Note: Black: married couple; dark grey: cohabiting couple; light grey: lone parent; white: other. Source: 2001 Census, table ST106, households with dependent children.

Who lacks qualifications?

Qualifications at ages 25-34 in England & W ales, 2001

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

BangladeshiCaribbean/WWhite Briton

PakistaniCaribbean

Other BlackA f rican/White

Other AsianAsian/White

IndianA f rican

Other MixedIrish

OtherChinese

Other WhiteTotal

Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = low, dark grey=medium.

Who will have a degree?

Holding degree s at ages 25-34 in England and Wales , 2001 (and 2010)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bangladeshi

Caribbean/White

White Briton

Caribbean

Other Black

Pakistani

A f rican/White

Other Asian

Asian/White

A f rican

Irish

Other Mixed

Indian

Other

Other White

Chinese

Total

Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = 2001, dark grey=2010. [2010 is simply predicted as three times the % with degrees aged 16-24 in 2001]

Who will have no qualifications?

No Qualifications at age s 25-34 and 16-24 in England and Wale s , 2001

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Irish

Other White

Other Mixed

Caribbean

A f rican

Chinese

White Briton

Asian/White

Indian

Other Black

A f rican/White

Other Asian

Caribbean/White

Other

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Total

Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 117. Note: black = 25-34, grey=16-24.

Finally some indexes

• Indexes can be more trouble than they are worth – are very crude summaries.

• Very slight changes to definitions, formulae, areas studied have huge effects.

• But, they will be constructed so is it possible to work out the least worse indexes to use?

• Three are used here, preferred in bold.

A 1991-2001 categorisationOur 8 simple categories

Britain 1991 England & Wales 2001 Scotland 2001

African Black African Black or Black British - African African

Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Bangladeshi

Caribbean Black -Caribbean Black or Black British - Caribbean Caribbean

Chinese Chinese Chinese Chinese

Indian Asian - Indian Asian or Asian British - Indian Indian

Pakistani Asian - Pakistani Asian or Asian British - Pakistani Pakistani

Other Asian - Other

Black - Other

Other_Other

All Mixed and Other Groups All Mixed and Other Groups

White White White - Irish

White - Other

White - British

Other White

Other White British

White - Irish

White - Scottish

A simple Geography of Religion

This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account.

Christian C

N N No religion N

N N N Muslim M

N N N Hindu H

C C Sikh S

C C Jewish J

C N C

C M M C

C C M N C C

C M C C N C

C C C C H N C

C S S M N M C

C N C S C J C C

N N N C C H J M C

C C N S M M

C C C S N N N C

C C C H C

C C N

Some Indices• The table below shows three indices of dispersal by district for each

group in England and Wales. The first (1) is the index of segregation, the proportion who would have to move district to be evenly spread; the second is the index of isolation (2), the chance of a person of a particular religion meeting another person of their religion, at random by district; the third (3) is an index of separation, the index of isolation adjusted for the national size of the religious group which can vary from 0% to 100%.

Christian Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Other None Not say

1 4.8% 29.8% 56.2% 62.1% 54.2% 62.5% 19.5% 10.2%4.7%

2 73% 0.5% 6.4% 5.1% 10.3% 3.9% 0.4% 15.8%7.8%

3 3.9% 0.2% 5.4% 4.6% 7.6% 3.3% 0.1% 1.2%0.1%

A simple Geography of Ethnicity

This is a cartogram of the 84 European constituencies not used for voting in 1999. Each area is labelled by which group is most numerous there once the national average proportion of that group is taken into account. The map is almost unchanged as compared to that which can be drawn for 1991 and in contrast to other maps of change

White W

W W Pakistani P

W W W Indian I

W W W Black African Ba

W W Black Caribbean Bc

W W Bangladeshi B

P P W

P P P W

W I P P W W

W P W W Bc W

W W W W I W W

W I I P W P W

W W W I W W W W

W W W W W I Ba B W

W W W I Ba I

W W W I Bc Ba Ba W

W W W Bc W

W W W

Indices at LA level (E&W)

E&W African B/deshi C/bean Chinese Indian P/stani White OtherWhite+Other

1991

Segregation 66% 60% 61% 32% 57% 61% 3% 42% 3%

Isolation 4% 6% 5% 1% 8% 4% 94% 4% 96%

Separation 3% 6% 4% 0% 7% 4% 13% 2% 11%

2001

Segregation 67% 61% 62% 32% 55% 61% 5% 38% 4%

Isolation 7% 10% 5% 1% 9% 6% 93% 5% 95%

Separation 6% 9% 4% 0% 7% 5% 16% 3% 14%

change

Segregation 1% 1% 1% 0% -2% 0% 1% -4% 1%

Isolation 3% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% -2% 1% -1%

Separation 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 4% 1% 3%

Indices at Ward Level

E&W African B/deshi C/bean Chinese Indian P/stani White OtherWhite+Other

1991

Segregation 71% 74% 68% 42% 64% 74% 4% 48% 3%

Isolation 4% 11% 8% 1% 15% 14% 95% 4% 96%

Separation 4% 11% 7% 1% 14% 14% 21% 3% 20%

2001

Segregation 70% 71% 66% 41% 61% 71% 5% 42% 4%

Isolation 8% 14% 7% 1% 15% 17% 93% 6% 95%

Separation 7% 13% 6% 1% 14% 16% 25% 3% 23%

change

Segregation -1% -2% -2% -1% -3% -3% 1% -6% 1%

Isolation 4% 3% -1% 0% 0% 3% -2% 1% -1%

Separation 3% 3% -1% 0% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3%

White % and change 91-01

White 2001 %39 - 6667 - 8182 - 9091 - 9697 - 100

White change %-18 - -5-4.9 - -2-1.9 - -1-0.9 - -0.10 - 1

Conclusions

• We did not ask these questions for entirely altruistic reasons; context matters greatly.

• There are thousands of myths to be exposed and legends to be generated.

• Rather than “swamping” we see “spreading slowly into a White swamp”.

• However, there are very many different stories in different places.

White % and change 91-01

White 2001 %39 - 6667 - 8182 - 9091 - 9697 - 100

White change %-18 - -5-4.9 - -2-1.9 - -1-0.9 - -0.10 - 1