Brazil’s Beef Exports Surge While Pork Languishes · 2018-09-13 · Brazil: Exports are not only recovering from last year’s steep declines as a result of Russia’s FMD-related

United States Department ofAgriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series DL&P 1-07 April 2007

Brazil’s Beef Exports Surge While Pork Languishes

Brazil: Beef and Pork Exports

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500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (f)Years

Tons

Beef Exports Pork Exports

Brazilian beef production and exports continue to expand, despite an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in October 2005. Driven by both domestic and foreign demand growth, tight global supplies and high prices, production is forecast to be up 3.4 percent and exports up 6 percent for 2007.

Despite partial disease-related bans by major customers the EU and Russia, Brazilian beef export growth continues and is partially sustained by new opportunities in the Middle East (Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia). Sales to these non-traditional markets have offset a decline in sales to the EU and countered limited access to the Russian market.

Alternatively, expansion in Brazil’s pork production is forecast to be 3.5 percent higher for 2007. Exports have been constrained by trade restrictions imposed by the EU and Russia since the FMD outbreak and as a result domestic consumption has increased sharply. There have been some opportunities, growth in Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore.

Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of April 10, 2007.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2007

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 3

2007 Revised Forecast OverviewsBeef 4 Pork 6 Broiler 8

Summary Tables Beef Summary Table 9 Pork Summary Table 11

Broiler Meat Summary Table 13 Cattle Summary Table 15 Swine Summary Table 17

Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected Countries Beef 19 Pork 20

Broiler 21

Notes to Readers 22

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis

April 2007

Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (p) 2007 (f)

Percent Change 2006 to

2007

Production

Beef and Veal /1 51,241 50,095 51,327 52,454 53,838 54,796 1.8%

Pork /1 88,011 90,488 92,801 96,136 99,016 101,867 2.9%

Broiler and Turkey /2 /3 59,173 59,218 60,845 64,013 65,233 65,847 0.9%

Total 198,425 199,801 204,973 212,603 218,087 222,510 2.0%

Consumption

Beef and Veal /1 50,277 49,049 49,875 50,851 51,725 52,641 1.8%

Pork /1 87,829 90,297 92,139 95,204 98,136 100,794 2.7%


Total 195,740 197,010 200,916 208,204 213,535 217,668 1.9%

Imports

Beef and Veal /1 5,242 5,074 4,891 5,424 5,215 5,409 3.7%

Pork /1 3,871 3,962 4,172 4,393 4,355 4,426 1.6%


Total 13,974 14,061 13,831 15,364 15,078 15,668 3.9%

Exports

Beef and Veal /1 6,274 6,339 6,496 7,091 7,273 7,571 4.1%

Pork /1 3,898 4,255 4,861 5,210 5,325 5,557 4.4%


Total 16,485 17,180 17,992 19,726 19,714 20,611 4.6%

U.S. Exports

Beef and Veal /1 1,110 1,142 209 317 523 585 11.9%

Pork /1 731 779 989 1,209 1,359 1,515 11.5%


Total 4,220 4,372 3,569 4,145 4,515 4,813 6.6%

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Change in Market Share Points

Beef and Veal /1 18% 18% 3% 4% 7% 8% 1%

Pork /1 19% 18% 20% 23% 26% 27% 2%

Broiler and Turkey /2 /3 38% 37% 36% 35% 37% 36% -1%

Combined 26% 25% 20% 21% 23% 23% 0%

Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

(p) preliminary; (f) forecast

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

3/ Notes regarding publication of revised turkey data is in "Notes to Readers".Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totalsdo not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.


April 2007

Beef: 2007 Revised Forecast Overview

• Beef production by major traders for 2007 unchanged in revised forecast at 54.8 million tons

Whereas beef production forecasts for most major producers (U.S., China and the EU) are about unchanged in the revised 2007 forecast, Brazil is revised up by 2.2 percent to just over 9.3 million tonsdue to firm domestic demand, expanding exports to non-traditional markets, and improved pasture and profits.

• Beef exports revised slightly upward; global market supply still tight

Beef exports by major traders in the revised 2007 forecast are raised nearly 2 percent higher to almost 7.6 million tons attributable primarily to recovering exports by Brazil. The absence of new disease outbreaks by major exporters and no significant changes in the import policies of major importers to eliminate or reduce disease-related trade restrictions has generated a certain degree of stability in the beef market.

However, the global beef market remains characterized by tight supply as a result of those disease-related trade restrictions. Brazil’s cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) have led to partial bans by its major trading partners Russia and the EU-25. Canadian and U.S. beef exports continue to be constrained by bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) related restrictions by key importers.

Brazil: Brazilian 2007 exports are boosted upward in the revised forecast by nearly 13 percent, and as the world’s leading beef exporter, such growth has a significant impact on the world market. Faced withdisease-related trade constraints in traditional markets such as Russia and the EU-25, growth has been spurred by a diversified product mix and increased sales to non-traditional markets such as the Middle East and North Africa.

United States: The United States continues to struggle in its quest for market access in important Asian markets after the initial discovery of BSE in December 2003. While U.S. beef is no longer banned in South Korea, the two sides have not agreed on trading conditions that would allow U.S. beef exports to South Korea to take place on a commercially viable basis. Thus, the revised forecast assumes that theUnited States will only export small quantities of beef to South Korea in 2007. Sales to Japan are hindered by a 20 month or younger age restriction and the age-verification process. However, there has been great success within the Western Hemisphere. U.S. beef shipments to Mexico and the Caribbean surpassed the market levels of 2003 by 15 percent in 2006 and will be key destinations for growth in 2007.

Argentina: The revised export forecast 2007 is down from the previous release by nearly 17 percent to 500,000 tons. While Argentina has benefited from Brazil’s reduction in sales to the Russian market in recent years, trade will continue to decelerate until export-restricting regulations by the Government ofArgentina (GOA) are lifted. Government policies supporting domestic consumption are at the heart oflimiting Argentina’s export sales. Argentina has the highest per capita consumption of beef in the world, but the country has been recently plagued by economic instability. The erratic economy inspired the GOA to impose a beef export ban in March 2006 in order to lower the domestic price of fresh beef to help curb inflation. In addition to regulating slaughter weights, regulations limit beef exports to 70 percent of the previous year’s level. However, the GOA will honor trade agreements and continue to fill the Hilton Quota to the EU-25.


April 2007

• Imports: Revised forecast reflects stability

With no changes in disease-related trade restrictions, there are few significant changes by majorimporters. Of note, Korea imports are revised higher by 28 percent from the last report. Japanese imports for 2007 were revised downward by over 8 percent in the updated forecast.

South Korea: The upward revision of Korea’s beef import forecast reflects projected stability from 2006 despite the absence of U.S. product in the market. Australia will continue to be a key supplier in 2007.

Japan: The primary supplier will likely continue to be Australia where drought conditions have resulted in an acceleration of cattle slaughter and a larger beef supply. To offset the resumption of U.S. beefexports to Japan, Australia is expected to continue its marketing campaigns and will provide an increased amount of grain fed beef.

Russia: The revised estimate assumes a continuity of policies in place as of April 9, 2007 and an increasingly tight global supply and high prices. Russian imports for 2007 are revised 6 percent higher in current forecast but are expected to be below its 2005 peak.


April 2007

Pork: 2007 Revised Forecast Overview

• Pork production revised downward mostly due to adjustment in China

The 2007 production forecast for China is reduced about 3 percent in the revised forecast which is the major driver in a reduced production forecast for the selected countries. Even taking into account these adjustments, China’s 2007 production and consumption are both expected to expand a healthy 4 percent over last year’s levels.

• Pork exports by major traders in 2007 elevated over 4 percent in revised forecast

Revised forecasts for Brazilian, the U.S., and EU-25 exports are due to a more optimistic outlook. However Canadian sales are forecast lower.

Brazil: Exports are not only recovering from last year’s steep declines as a result of Russia’s FMD-related ban but are now estimated to be up on increased sales to smaller, non-traditional markets such as the Ukraine, Angola and Georgia.

EU-25: The 2007 export estimate was adjusted upwards about 5 percent with more sales to Romania (still considered extra-EU-25 trade). EU pork exports to Romania have increased to 200,000 tons in past years and could reach 250,000 tons in 2007 as EU product will further displace Canadian and U.S. sales which face higher sanitary restrictions and import tariffs as a consequence Romania’s EU accession.

Canada: Lower hogs numbers and prospects for increased live hog exports to the United States point to lower pork exports. The Canadian pork industry will have to work through its current difficulties including a strong Canadian dollar, high labor costs and rising feed costs. The relatively expensive Canadian dollar has exacerbated the industry’s higher cost structure, which now prevents it from providing hog producers with sufficient price incentives to finish and sell more hogs in Canada, ratherthan in the United States. Meanwhile, U.S. packers’ lower operating costs are helping to pull more and more Canadian swine to the United States, leading to record U.S. hog imports.

United States: Exports continue to climb with strong demand, particularly from stellar growth fromRussia and South Korea. In spite of high prices, favorable exchange rates help U.S. pork remain attractive compared to other major exporting countries. Sales have escalated to Russia where higher oil revenues generated income growth that has spurred expansion in overall meat consumption. U.S. exporters havebenefited from ongoing Russian health restrictions on Brazilian pork. Despite sluggish sales in 2006, Japan will be a key growth destination for U.S. pork in 2007.

• Imports by key countries revised upward

South Korea: The import forecast is up sharply (82 percent) above last year’s level, based on assumptions about the beef market. The United States is expected to capture the lion’s share of this marketexpansion as its market share has more than doubled in the past 3 years. While U.S. beef is no longer banned in South Korea, the two sides have not agreed on trading conditions that would allow U.S. beef exports to South Korea to take place on a commercially viable basis. The revised forecast assumes theUnited States will not export significant quantities of beef to South Korea and consumers will continue their shift to pork. Consumers’ preference for pork in a country where it constitutes about 45 percent of daily meat protein consumption helps to drive the boom.


April 2007

Russia: The estimate has revised 2007 imports upward by 3 percent since the last forecast and about even with 2006. Currently U.S., Canadian and EU-25 product is replacing Brazilian pork which faces partial FMD-related bans. However, any changes to its import policy regarding Brazilian product could not only expand total imports but also revert is purchases back to Brazil. However, if Russia continues to expand pork production at the current rate, it may opt to limit imports even further.


April 2007

Broiler: 2007 Revised Forecast Overview

• Broiler production is virtually unchanged at 61.0 million tons

Brazil and EU-25 estimates are revised higher, while U.S. is lower.

United States: Production is down due to last year’s lower prices and higher feed costs dampening returns.

• Broiler exports revised upward by 2 percent to 6.9 million tons

Higher exports are estimated for Brazil and the EU-25.

Brazil: Exports are estimated 6 percent higher than the previous forecast at 2.7 million tons based on higher production. Major processors are recovering from last year’s losses as foreign demand improves.

EU-25: Exports were revised 12 percent higher in the revised forecast at 770,000 tons based on higher production. France, (major producer and exporter) has been declared avian influenza (AI) free again and consequently, a number of countries have lifted their bans on French imports. Shipments to Romania are expected to shift towards the EU-25, as a consequence of its accession. The United States was Romania’s primary supplier, but with the implementation of the EU’s sanitary-veterinary restrictions; imports wereprohibited from the United States. Currently there are no EU-approved poultry facilities in the United States.

United States: Exports are revised slightly lower at 2.4 million tons based on lower production. Exports to Russia, the major market for U.S. poultry, are expected to slow because of lower import needs due to a surge in investment in the poultry industry. But exports to key markets such as China and Mexico are expected to be strong. China continues to favor U.S. exports over other countries because they are considered AI-safe chicken products. Mexico still prefers U.S. broilers as they are cheaper given the transportation cost advantage.

• Broiler imports estimate is unchanged at 5.3 million tons

Lower EU-25 imports are largely offset by higher demand from Mexico.


April 2007

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Production

9,3259,1209,0208,5927,9757,385 Brazil

7,9007,9107,4927,1156,7596,305 China, Peoples Republic of

7,8607,8807,9307,8488,0078,061 EU-25

3,1253,1503,1003,2003,1302,800 Argentina

2,5002,5002,3752,2502,1301,960 India

2,2902,2902,1832,1022,0812,073 Australia

2,2002,2002,1752,1252,0991,950 Mexico

1,3851,3351,4251,5231,4961,190 Canada

1,3801,3801,4301,5251,5901,670 Russian Federation

715690655705720693 New Zealand

4,0544,0944,0724,1514,0793,969 Others

42,73442,54941,85741,13640,06638,056 Total Foreign

12,06212,16811,98111,31811,26112,039 United States

54,79654,71753,83852,45451,32750,095 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

8,2408,2408,2708,1948,2928,315 EU-25


7,1207,1806,9396,7746,4006,273 Brazil

2,6302,5522,5502,4432,5122,426 Argentina

2,5352,5352,5092,4192,3682,308 Mexico


1,7001,7001,6251,6231,6311,521 India

1,2101,2561,1731,2001,1821,366 Japan

1,1301,0591,1401,1061,0571,066 Canada

730755719735747786 Australia

4,2104,1804,2054,1654,0083,996 Others

39,63039,55638,89538,18837,20836,709 Total Foreign

13,01113,02412,83012,66312,66712,340 United States

52,64152,58051,72550,85149,87549,049 Total


Notes: 1/ Includes buffalo for India. 2/ From 2003, Columbia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are no longer included in the cattle and beef PSD.

Data for 2006 is preliminary. Data for 2007 is forecast.


April 2007

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Imports

960905955993730720 Russian Federation

700765692700647851 Japan

580560560600584463 EU-25

375375372325287370 Mexico

295230290243218444 Korea, Republic of

240240225214168123 Egypt

170160159133111274 Canada

148148142140164129 Philippines

100100101928098 Taiwan

939392928181 Hong Kong

251265228260152158 Others

3,9123,8413,8163,7923,2223,711 Total Foreign

1,4971,5241,3991,6321,6691,363 United States

5,4095,3655,2155,4244,8915,074 Total

none

Total Exports

2,2351,9852,1091,8671,6281,175 Brazil

1,5301,4951,4591,4131,3941,264 Australia

800800750627499439 India

600570541589606558 New Zealand

520520510487410325 Uruguay

500600556762623386 Argentina

420440440551557383 Canada

200200220254358388 EU-25

1028599916143 China, Peoples Republic of

404038311812 Mexico

393928102133224 Others

6,9866,7746,7506,7746,2875,197 Total Foreign

5856805233172091,142 United States

7,5717,4547,2737,0916,4966,339 Total





April 2007

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Production


21,45021,50021,40021,10121,19221,150 EU-25

2,9302,8752,8302,7102,6002,560 Brazil


1,8321,8321,7131,6021,4081,257 Vietnam

1,8101,8601,8701,9141,9361,882 Canada

1,2451,2451,2151,1751,1451,145 Philippines

1,2401,2351,2471,2451,2721,260 Japan

1,1901,2501,2001,1951,1501,100 Mexico

1,0401,0771,0001,0361,1001,149 Korea, Republic of

2,9832,9932,9162,9252,9453,033 Others

92,07293,57789,45786,74483,48981,432 Total Foreign

9,7959,8099,5599,3929,3129,056 United States

101,867103,38699,01696,13692,80190,488 Total

none



20,00020,12220,01519,76819,77320,043 EU-25


2,5082,5012,4502,5072,5622,373 Japan

2,2802,3052,1911,9491,9791,957 Brazil

1,8151,8151,6981,5831,3861,244 Vietnam

1,5801,6401,5801,5561,5561,423 Mexico


1,2721,2721,2401,1981,1691,167 Philippines

945956932950959947 Taiwan

3,5353,5403,5423,5403,6223,559 Others

92,09393,50089,49686,53583,32281,481 Total Foreign

8,7018,8748,6408,6698,8178,816 United States

100,794102,37498,13695,20492,13990,297 Total




April 2007

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Imports

1,2251,2281,1461,3391,3021,133 Japan


460460446420458371 Mexico


317317310305332302 Hong Kong

275275288263179133 Romania

13014514514010591 Canada

999990997767 Australia


454545626413 Ukraine

117120103109138171 Others

4,0043,7683,9063,9293,6733,424 Total Foreign

422467449464499538 United States

4,4264,2354,3554,3934,1723,962 Total

none

Total Exports

1,4701,4001,4101,3541,4631,234 EU-25

1,0501,1201,0801,084972975 Canada

650570639761621603 Brazil


13513512412810380 Chile

707066595248 Mexico

545456535974 Australia


181815192212 Vietnam


001121621 Others

4,0423,9123,9664,0013,8723,476 Total Foreign

1,5151,4021,3591,209989779 United States

5,5575,3145,3255,2104,8614,255 Total




April 2007

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Production


9,7959,6709,3559,3508,4087,645 Brazil

7,7007,5307,6257,8047,6277,512 EU-25

2,6412,7242,5762,4982,3892,290 Mexico

2,2002,2002,0001,9001,6501,500 India

1,3001,2601,180900650560 Russian Federation

1,2901,2901,2101,030910750 Argentina

1,1851,1851,1951,1661,1241,127 Japan

1,1001,1001,1009509001,340 Thailand

980980970977946929 Canada

6,2906,2906,7586,5166,0646,035 Others

45,00144,74944,31943,29140,66639,586 Total Foreign

15,96416,41316,04315,87015,28614,696 United States

60,96561,16260,36259,16155,95254,282 Total

none



7,5307,4907,3807,5967,2807,312 EU-25

7,0957,1206,8536,6125,9925,742 Brazil

3,1003,1483,0052,8712,7132,627 Mexico


2,2002,2002,0001,8991,6481,496 India

1,9151,9151,9081,8801,7131,841 Japan

1,1841,1841,124949845719 Argentina

1,0751,0751,0621,010956928 South Africa, Republic of

1,0191,0199721,011889904 Saudi Arabia

7,7457,7078,1417,9497,4297,151 Others

45,96345,84345,19844,00441,07140,363 Total Foreign

13,55413,90113,75413,43013,08012,540 United States

59,51759,74458,95257,43454,15152,903 Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are not included in the trade data. 2/ From 2003 onward, Columbia and Egypt are are dropped from the broiler PSD. 3/ From 2007 onward, Australia is dropped from the broiler PSD.



April 2007

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Imports


725725740748582695 Japan

600645525549466588 EU-25

470470434484429452 Saudi Arabia

460424430374326338 Mexico


237237234222244154 Hong Kong

225225225189154125 South Africa, Republic of

165165137167158154 United Arab Emirates

150150120100256 Venezuela

700700661798798573 Others

5,3525,3215,0385,0754,3724,619 Total Foreign

22162115126 United States

5,3745,3375,0595,0904,3844,625 Total

none

Total Exports

2,7002,5502,5022,7392,4161,903 Brazil

770685770757813788 EU-25


280280261240200485 Thailand

11011090846639 Argentina

9595951017476 Canada

75753897243 Kuwait

303010201540 United Arab Emirates

101010101020 Saudi Arabia

883775 Romania

222135473944 Others

4,4304,2294,1364,4333,9053,791 Total Foreign

2,4522,5082,3912,3602,1702,232 United States

6,8826,7376,5276,7936,0756,023 Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are not included in the trade data. 2/ From 2003 onward, Columbia and Egypt are are dropped from the broiler PSD. 3/ From 2007 onward, Australia is dropped from the broiler PSD.



April 2007

Live Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

282,000282,000282,300282,500283,103286,079 India

180,300180,103173,816169,567165,492161,463 Brazil


85,15085,15085,80486,41287,47888,719 EU-25

51,16450,76650,16650,16750,76850,869 Argentina

28,56028,60027,78227,27026,64027,870 Australia

26,64426,64426,94927,57228,43729,224 Mexico


14,31514,40014,83015,06314,65313,488 Canada

14,20014,20013,79013,51013,54013,635 South Africa, Republic of

60,08759,93960,76061,59364,98767,894 Others

906,756905,846897,622892,572892,055893,589 Total Foreign

97,00398,40096,70295,43894,88896,100 United States

1,003,7591,004,246994,324988,010986,943989,689 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)


57,00057,00057,00056,50055,80055,100 India

54,45053,49051,79748,32746,23444,887 Brazil

29,70029,60029,90030,43631,02531,834 EU-25

15,00014,70015,50015,40015,00014,000 Argentina

9,93010,49010,2849,6439,9708,823 Australia

8,2008,2007,9507,5007,3007,200 Mexico


5,3005,0005,5145,6255,5425,788 Canada

4,4804,4804,4704,4604,4504,475 New Zealand

20,10619,92619,93020,31620,76221,552 Others

274,736273,296269,950263,177258,645254,158 Total Foreign

37,50038,00037,56737,57537,50537,903 United States

312,236311,296307,517300,752296,150292,061 Total





April 2007

Live Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Imports

140140210210145130 South Africa, Republic of

10012572856853 Mexico


507068636865 EU-25

452538211963 Canada

4040252555100 Philippines

283026252123 Japan


665521 Romania

333200 Bulgaria

43305314197 Others

486524550553531692 Total Foreign

2,2002,2002,2891,8161,3711,752 United States

2,6862,7242,8392,3691,9022,444 Total

none

Total Exports

1,3001,4001,2751,2591,3751,240 Mexico

9509001,0325590506 Canada

640640637573638774 Australia

280180246113163 Brazil

200260290323435475 EU-25

155155150155172152 Romania


323230512525 Bulgaria

304032506918 New Zealand

202020104112 Uruguay

1416131394217 Others

3,6753,6943,7793,1602,9243,473 Total Foreign

606049221699 United States

3,7353,7543,8283,1822,9403,572 Total





April 2007

Live Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks


152,000152,000151,673151,143152,793154,311 EU-25

33,14733,14732,93832,32332,08132,655 Brazil

28,36928,36927,43526,14424,88523,167 Vietnam


14,32914,25014,73014,61914,62314,672 Canada

13,69313,69313,04112,13912,51812,218 Philippines

10,25010,25010,12510,30310,66810,549 Mexico

9,6109,6009,6209,6009,7249,725 Japan


25,68525,69524,87523,95925,10127,418 Others

836,597831,970812,433786,665773,977772,740 Total Foreign

62,14961,40061,44960,97560,44459,554 United States

898,746893,370873,882847,640834,421832,294 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)


254,300252,800253,700250,486249,245254,218 EU-25

42,22642,22639,79137,54433,33029,020 Vietnam


34,53032,04033,30432,29530,01529,716 Brazil

32,77533,00033,19333,41333,16331,414 Canada

25,90025,90025,27024,64022,75023,100 Philippines

16,85016,85016,95017,00017,16017,250 Japan

15,80015,80015,70015,50015,35015,300 Mexico


36,72337,22335,90335,39534,44134,295 Others

1,264,4501,259,3391,239,6181,180,9891,121,9921,082,983 Total Foreign

105,994107,825105,259103,965102,781101,491 United States

1,370,4441,367,1641,344,8771,284,9541,224,7731,184,474 Total




April 2007

Live Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Oct

2007Apr

none

Total Imports


225225196181190184 Mexico

210210175171122116 Romania

30303513900 Ukraine

1010101511 Bulgaria



111134 Canada

113110 EU-25

110100 Vietnam

000101 Others

882732806599450342 Total Foreign

9,3508,8008,7638,1928,5067,438 United States

10,2329,5329,5698,7918,9567,780 Total

none

Total Exports

9,3508,8008,7778,2158,5117,442 Canada


1,4008001,250763446271 EU-25

333200 Bulgaria

011343 Others

12,44311,20411,75410,75210,9349,603 Total Foreign

170160165154174170 United States

12,61311,36411,91910,90611,1089,773 Total




April 2007

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (p) 2007 (f)

Argentina 61.6 62.6 64.2 61.8 63.9 65.3

Australia 35.6 39.8 37.5 36.6 35.5 35.7

Brazil 35.8 34.5 34.8 36.4 36.9 37.5

Canada 31.1 33.1 32.5 33.6 34.4 33.8

China, Peoples Republic of 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9

European Union 1/ 18.0 18.3 18.2 17.9 18.1 18.0

Egypt 8.4 7.5 8.2 9.3 8.7 8.6

Hong Kong 12.6 13.8 13.9 15.4 15.3 15.3

India 2/ 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Japan 10.4 10.7 9.3 9.4 9.2 9.5

Korea, South 12.7 12.6 9.6 9.0 10.0 10.2

Mexico 23.5 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.4 23.3

New Zealand 31.5 37.5 31.5 31.2 30.7 30.4

Philippines 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0

Russian Federation 16.9 16.4 16.0 17.5 16.6 16.3

South Africa 14.3 13.9 15.0 15.8 15.5 15.6

Taiwan 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.5

Turkey 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.7

Ukraine 11.2 8.6 10.8 11.2 11.9 11.5

United States 44.3 42.5 43.2 42.8 43.0 43.2

Uruguay 49.4 37.0 39.7 35.4 39.3 40.6

Beef: Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected CountriesKilograms Per Person

Beef

Sources: USDA -FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Population statistics from U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center.

Notes: 1/ EU data includes 25 member states for all years. 2/ Includes buffalo.



April 2007

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (p) 2007 (f)

Australia 19.2 20.8 20.8 21.4 21.0 20.6

Brazil 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.5 11.6 12.0

Canada 33.6 31.2 32.8 29.5 28.5 26.5

Chile 18.9 18.2 17.1 17.7 19.0 19.4


European Union 1/ 43.4 44.0 43.3 43.3 43.7 43.6

Hong Kong 62.4 65.6 71.9 65.7 65.7 65.3

Japan 18.7 18.7 20.1 19.7 19.2 19.7

Korea, South 25.0 26.8 27.5 26.8 28.7 29.6

Mexico 13.2 13.7 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.5

Philippines 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.0


Taiwan 43.1 41.9 42.2 41.5 41.8 40.8

Ukraine 12.5 13.1 12.8 11.6 11.3 12.4

United States 30.2 30.4 30.1 29.3 29.0 28.9

Vietnam 14.9 15.4 16.9 19.2 20.3 21.5

Pork: Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected CountriesKilograms Per Person

Pork

Sources: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Population statistics from U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center.

Notes: 1/ EU data includes 25 member states for all years.



April 2007

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (p) 2007 (f)

Argentina 16.1 18.6 21.6 24.0 28.2 29.4

Brazil 32.6 31.5 32.5 35.5 36.4 37.3

Canada 29.0 29.0 29.6 29.4 29.8 29.8


European Union 1/ 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.6 16.1 16.4

Hong Kong 33.3 31.1 37.6 38.8 38.8 38.5

India 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0

Indonesia 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9

Japan 14.4 14.5 13.5 14.8 15.0 15.0

Korea, South 11.0 10.7 9.6 12.2 12.9 13.3

Kuwait 41.7 49.5 54.5 42.8 43.0 41.9

Malaysia 36.4 37.7 37.2 38.5 38.3 38.0

Mexico 23.7 25.3 25.8 27.0 28.0 28.5

Philippines 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5

Romania 10.1 11.8 14.1 16.5 15.3 15.6


Saudi Arabia 33.3 35.9 34.5 38.3 36.0 36.9

South Africa 18.7 20.9 21.5 22.8 24.0 24.4

Taiwan 28.1 27.8 28.5 29.3 29.5 29.5

Thailand 13.5 12.1 10.2 12.3 12.5 13.2

Ukraine 3.3 4.5 10.1 9.1 9.7 11.8

United Arab Emirates 51.9 59.2 70.5 71.0 60.3 66.2

United States 42.7 43.2 44.6 45.4 46.1 45.0

Venezuela 13.2 12.4 13.6 17.7 19.0 21.3

Sources: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. Population statistics from U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center.

Notes: 1/ EU data includes 25 member states for all years.


Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected CountriesKilograms Per Person

Broiler Meat


April 2007

Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview of thesituation.

Data Modifications

• China (Pork): Chinese pork import data from 2005 onward is now based on partner country trade data rather than official Chinese import statistics. Chinese pork exports will continue to be based on official Chinese export data.

• China (Broiler): Both Chinese import and export data from 2005 onward is now based on official Chinese trade data.

• Kuwait: The broiler data series (imports and exports only) for 2004 was revised due new information regarding transshipments.

• Ukraine: The beef data series for 1996 was revised due to data error.

Assumptions

• BSE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2007 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of April 9, 2007.

• AI: Forecasts of 2007 poultry trade reflect policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks of avian influenza (AI) as of April 9, 2007. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.

• FMD: Forecasts of 2007 reflect the status of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) situation in Brazil asof April 9, 2007 and any resulting trade restrictions. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.

Technical Notes

All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of mostinternal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.

EU-25: For this circular, trade with Bulgaria and Romania is still considered extra-EU-25 trade because this circular is covering the EU-25 market, even if Bulgaria and Romania have joined the EU-25 on January 1, 2007 to form the EU-27. However, even if trade with these latest two new EU member statesis still considered extra-EU-25 trade, the circular does consider the expected impacts on the EU-25 market from the latest EU enlargement. An EU-27 data series for livestock, meat and poultry will be available as a part of the next PSD and circular release in November 2007.

Turkey Meat: The turkey meat data series is only updated once a year (October/November). Any turkeydata included in this release has not been revised since October 2006. For current U.S. turkey data please review the latest WASDE data at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm.


April 2007

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

Per Capita Consumption: The Per Capita Consumption table reflects FAS derived statistics. These aredeveloped using “Domestic Consumption” data in the PSD and Census population data. Censuspopulation data is available in Excel format from USDA-Economic Research Service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/.

Totals

Only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. Nevertheless, by capturing the PSDs for all major meat importers and exporters, it is possible to forecast world trends, which are reflected in the text.

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system togenerate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx.

FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 2007 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FASOnline at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp.

Scheduled and voluntary reports were received from the following countries. An “x” indicates that theUSDA-FAS office in that country provides a report and data for that commodity.

Country NameReportNumber Cattle Beef Swine Pork

ReportNumber Broiler Turkey

Argentina AR7004 x x Australia AS7006 x x Brazil BR7608 x x x x BR7606 x Canada CA7010 x x x x China CH7014 x x x x CH7016 x European Union E47008 x x x x E47009 x x Japan JA7010 x x x x Korea N/A x x x x N/A x Mexico MX7021 x x x x MX7018 x New Zealand NZ7002 x x Russian Federation RS7025 x x x x RS7019 x Taiwan TW7005 x x x Thailand TH7030 x


April 2007

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp

Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry (DLP) website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html for additional data and analysis.

Additional information on international trade of agricultural products can be found at: http://www.fas.usda.gov.

Situation and outlook information on the U.S. livestock and poultry industry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/.

Future Releases and Contact Information

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has the primary responsibility for USDA’s international activities. Its staff of more then 700 employees is stationed in Washington, DC, and in about 80 countries around the world. The agency works to expand and maintainexports for U.S. agricultural, fish, and forest products; supports international economic development and trade capacity building, and improve the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) system to facilitate trade.

FAS recently reorganized to meet new challenges and opportunities. More information on thereorganization is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/fasreorg.asp.

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases of“Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade”. The next release of this circular will be inNovember 2007 and will include a 2008 forecast.

Questions regarding this forecast as well as world trade of livestock and poultry products may be directed to the following staff:

Michelle DeGraaf 720-7285 [email protected] Poultry

Claire Mezoughem 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle, Beef, Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hides and skins)

Julie Morin 720-4185 [email protected] Swine, Pork


April 2007

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html

http://www.fas.usda.gov/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/fasreorg.asp

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp

mailto:[email protected]



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