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Risk model in eustream, a.s. and its real behaviour (2009-2013)
Branislav Reťkovský
Instead of agenda
(Dave Adler, NiSource Gas and John Beets, Willbros Engineering, Pipeline & Gas Journal, March 2012, Vol. 239 No. 3)
For many years the management of risk on NGT&S pipelines was driven by resource allocation and boiled down to who could do the best job of describing why their project was most important to the company’s future.
ProbabilityXConsequences(ASME B31.8s, K. Muhlbauer, eustream know-how)
Transit system of eustream
What does it mean „Risk“
ProbabilityXConsequences(ASME B31.8s, K. Muhlbauer, eustream know-how)
Integrity management – risk management
Risk factors identifying (P,C),Setting of factors value,Integrated database,Dynamic segmentation
Corrosion (ILI, cathodic protection..), Construction (coating, pipe material...), 3th parts, Geo – factors (soil type, landslide potential...)
Risk factors identifying
People,Economy,Environment...
Risk factors identifying
Risk model
34 probability factors,13 consequences factors,4 time related factors...
Riziko (R)R = P x D
Erf DNV (t)
3th parts
Cathodic protection
Dynamic segmentation
Risk management
Drill down analyses,Critical factors Identification,Mitigation...
Risk management is not playing with numbers
Integrity management – risk management
1026,7 km1291,6 km
11,01 km
Analyses of the 3th risk level
61% of all 3th level risks segments (8213 m)21 km long section, Dificcult natural conditions
Analyses of the 3th risk level
Why is the 4th line bad?
ILI is only one of the risk factors,The same environment (conditions),The same impacts...
Why is the 4th line bad?
ILI is only one of the risk factors,The same environment (conditions),The same impacts...
+ 9507 m
-8870 m-637 m
The 1st line
+ 1370m
-1312 m+41,5m
The 2nd line
+ 4480 m
-4912 m+432 m
3th line
- 32719m
+30781m+1938m
The 4th line
...even ILI has its „best before“...
Why is the 4th line bad?
-6326m
+6166m
+98m
-9017m
+8716m
+285m
-8837 m
+8228m
+576 m
-10613m
+10596m
+17m
New ILI (L1,L2,L3)New data , new corrosion findingsTime related factors
Why all lines goes bad?
+20 122m
-19 925m
-1007m
+13178m
-12581m
-1427m
+5436 m
-4843m
-1381m
+405m
-903m
-1403m
-37%
Mitigation focused on critical sectorMitigation covers all area (new CP station)Feedback (external inspection of all section)
Why goes all lines nice?
- 3187 m
+ 3156 m
-7 m
- 12284 m
+ 11856 m
+ 413 m
- 4662 m
+ 4384 m
+ 279 m
-1047 m
+ 882 m
+ 163 m
Time is ticking:„Virtual“ growing of corrosionInspections are getting old
ILI is like the Holy BibleRepairing of corrosion based on It is localPlaning is not enoug corelated wit risk model
Time to review the model?
What happens? (Again)
Conclusions
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
1
2
3
4
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1
2
3
4
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1
2
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4
Risk model works and reflects activitys in terrainIt is neccesary to involve risk model more into process of maintenance, The way how to significant reduce risky segments is applying areal mitigations (e.g. fresh inspection)
Conclusions
Thank you for your attention