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8/3/2019 Bp Sustainability Report 2007 Christof Ruhl Slides
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8/3/2019 Bp Sustainability Report 2007 Christof Ruhl Slides
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Outline
Introduction
What has changed? The medium term
What is new? 2006 in review
Conclusion
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Energy Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Oil (dated Brent)
Gas basket
Coal basket
Weightedaverage
Index 1991=100
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
WorldPrimaryEnergy
OECD Non-OECD Oil Gas Coal
World Energy Consumption Growth
Average annual growthExcl. China
1996-2001
2001-2006
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
World OECD FSU China Other EMEsexcl. China
2001-20061996-
2001
Average annual growth (PPP)
World Economic Growth
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
WorldPrimaryEnergy
Worldexcl.
China
OECD Non-OECD
Oil Gas Coal
Elasticity
Income Elasticities of Energy Demand
2001-2006
1996-2001
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
World Fuel Shares
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Share of global primary energy consumption
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Carbon Emissions
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006
China
World
OECD
Tonnes of carbon per tonne of primary energy use
Carbon IntensityWorld Carbon Emissions
Index: 1990 = 100
World
Annex 1
Annex 1Ratified
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
China9%
FSU
17% OtherOECD11%
Europe22%
US23%
Other EMEs18%
OtherOECD12%
FSU10%
Europe18%
US21%
OtherEMEs23%
China16%
8.2 Billion toe 10.9 Billion toe
1991 2006
Shares of World Energy Consumption
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
N America Europe S & CAmerica
FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific
Billion cubic metres
5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region
Regional Growth of Gas Production
1991-
1996
2001-
2006
1996-2001
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Energy Trade
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Africa
Mid-East
FSU
S&C America
Europe
Asia Pacific
N. America
Billion tonnes oil equivalent
Net inter-regional exports
Net inter-regional imports
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
World Economic Growth
Source: IMF WEO
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
N .
A m e r i c a
S & C A m e r i c a
E U - 2
5
F S U
M
i d d l e E a s t
A f r i c a
A
s i a
P a c i
f i c
Regional GDP growth in 2006 (PPP)Global GDP growth (PPP)
10-yearaverage
10-year average
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GDP and Primary Energy Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Primary energy consumption GDP (PPP)Growth
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-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China Other non-OECD OECD
World Energy Consumption Growth
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Oil Coal Gas Others
Million tonnes oil equivalent
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0
1
2
3
4
5
Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Oil
% Growth in 2006
Primary Energy Growth by Fuel
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Oil Natural Gas Coal
Fuel Price Growth
20052006
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
GDP, Energy and Carbon Emissions
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
OECD
Non-OECD
World
GDP
Primary energy
Growth of GDP and energy in 2006
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Primary energyCarbon emissions
Growth of energy and carbon emissions in 2006
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Oil Prices
35
40
45
50
5560
65
70
75
80
Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07
Dated BrentUS dollars per barrel
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2001-2005 range 2006 / 2007Billionbarrels
3
2
1
2007
Spare OPEC capacity(million barrels daily, rhs)
OECD stocks (lhs):
2006
OECD Total Commercial Stocks
Source: IEA, EIA
0
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Oil Consumption
000 b/d
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
China Europe OtherAsia
Pacific
NorthAmerica
MiddleEast
FSU S&CAmerica
Africa
10-year average
Oil importing regions Oil exporting regions
Growth in 2006 by region
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-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Decrease Increase
Oil Production
Non-OPEC
FSU
OPEC
Canada
Iraq
Angola
AzerbaijanRussia
UAE
Norway
UK
Nigeria
Venezuela
000 b/d
Saudi Arabia
Changes in 2006 in excess of 100,000 b/d
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Changes in 2006
Refining Throughput
-400 -200 0 200 400 600
World
Asia Pacific
Africa
Middle East
FSU
Europe
S&C America
N America
000 b/d
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Natural Gas Prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07
NBP Henry Hub USGC residual fuel oil
US dollars per million Btu
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
US Inter-fuel Substitution
-400
-200
0
200
400
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07
-4
-2
0
2
4
Change in resid used in powergen (lhs)
Gas premium/discount (rhs)
000 b/d US dollars per million Btu
Source: DOE/EIA
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
LNG Trade
Billion cubic metres
Source: Cedigaz
Exporters
Billion cubic metres
-2 0 2 4 6 8
Egypt
Nigeria
Qatar
OmanAustralia
Indonesia
Algeria
Importers
-2 0 2 4 6 8
JapanSouth Korea
UK
US
Spain
BelgiumIndia
France
China
Trade changes in 2006 in excess of 1 billion cubic metres
Trinidad
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Coal Consumption
16
4
4
-2
-3
-7
India
Indonesia
UK
Japan
Spain
USA
RoW28%
Million tonnes oil equivalent Million tonnes oil equivalent
China72%
Global consumption growth 2006 Consumption growth outside China 2006
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07
2005 Contract price
Spot price2008 Contract price
EU Emissions Trading Scheme
Euros per tonne of CO 2 equivalent
Source: Point Carbon
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Non-Fossil Fuels
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40Hydro
Nuclear
Million tonnes oil equivalent
2002 2004 2005 20062003
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US Brazil Other
Million tonnes oil equivalent
Ethanol productionChange in Nuclear and Hydro generation
W ld Oil R
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
World Oil Reserves
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Middle East S&C AmericaEurope & Eurasia AfricaNorth America Asia PacificOther Canadian oil sands
Billion barrels
GDP P i E d C b E i i
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
GDP, Primary Energy and Carbon Emissions
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Primary energy consumption
Carbon emissionsGDP
Index: 1990 = 100
C l i
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007
Conclusions
Medium term
Fast economic growth driving energy consumption growth Coal fastest growing fuel Non-OECD growth trends generate more energy intensive and
carbon intensive growth
Rising energy prices
2006 in review
Slower (but above average) consumption growth Consumption responsive to price, especially in OECD Rapid coal growth; carbon intensity increased OPEC re-engages
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Energy in Perspective
BP Statistical Review of World Energy2007
Q & A
Peter DaviesChristof Rhl