Climate Change Adaptation Concept Paper 04292011 FINAL VERSION.doc

BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS (SIPA) CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CAPSTONE WORKSHOP

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE HIMALAYAN SUB-BASIN OF INDIA Recommendations to the United States Agency for International Development,

Department of Defense and Department of State

CONCEPT PAPER

April 29, 2011

Eva Arias, Jonathan Camuzeaux, Pleurat Halili, Azzurra Massimino, Jay Ross, Michael Turner

Photograph by Baldiri (The Indus River)

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This paper benefitted from the support of many dedicated experts. Particular thanks go to the SIPA team’s faculty advisors Professor Shiv Someshwar and Kye Baroang, as well as to the Booz Allen Hamilton Climate Change Center of Excellence team that followed the Capstone process: Rita Hudetz, Christine Mataya, Kendra Sand, Allen Shapiro and Emily Wasley. The research conducted also profited from numerous interviews with experts from various institutions and fields. The SIPA Capstone team would like to thank the following individuals: from the International Finance Corporation, Ms. Shilpa Patel and Alan Miller; from the World Bank, Dr. Patrick Verkooijen, Herbert Acquay, and Ms. Elif Kiratli; from the United States Global Change Research Program, Dr. Fabien Laurier and his dedicated staff of experts; from Booz Allen Hamilton, Peter Trick, Sherry Altman, Sue Kalweit, Troy Kofroth, Dan Agar, Olwen Huxley and Vincent Bonifera; from USAID, Ms. Jenny Frankel-Reed and John Furlow; from the Earth Institute at Columbia University, Professors Marc Levy and Upmanu Lall; from the Department of Defense, Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy, Ms. Courtney St. John.

Finally, for her support in all technical and administrative matters, the team thanks Ms. Suzanne Hollmann, from SIPA’s Office of Curriculum and Faculty Affairs.

DISCLAIMER

Research for this Concept Paper was conducted over one semester as part of SIPA Master’s Program. The location of research was New York City. Hence, it is important to note that the results and recommendations should only be placed in the context of these sizable limitations. Providing a comprehensive and accurate picture of the region’s climate change impacts and adaptation policies would have required extensive review of scientific and policy material, and interviews of stakeholders in the region including of Government of India officials. Unfortunately, because of time and budgetary constraints, the authors were unable to travel to India or conduct fieldwork. In addition, the authors were only able to conduct two interviews with officials from the US agencies of interest: one with representatives of the US Agency for International Development, and one with a representative of the US Department of Defense. The authors also met members of the US Global Change Research Program (which represents thirteen USG Agencies), but were unable to meet staff from the US Department of State. Beyond these interviews, the authors based their research on the extensive literature available on the topic. Despite these limitations, and with guidance from the Faculty Advisors and Booz Allen Hamilton, the team was able to review and assimilate research material available in academic journals and on the internet, produced by reputable institutions, and provided by government agencies and/or multilateral development banks – all of which contributed to the substance of this Concept Paper and the accompanying Impact Assessment Paper produced earlier in the semester. Climate impacts on livelihoods, communities and societies are due to both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. While the distinction may be important in the context of international negotiations, it is less so for policy-makers at national and sub-national scales, who strive to build resilience to a range of climate risks. Also, the authors understand that many of the challenges and risks to development that the South Asia region is expected to face will not be solely caused by climate change, but are attributable to a multiplicity of factors, including population growth, resource intensification, land use change, civil society conflicts, etc., that can exacerbate, or in turn be exacerbated by, the negative effects associated with climate change.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate change is expected to have a disproportionate adverse impact on the region of South Asia. Changes in the biophysical and ecosystem level will increase the frequency of natural disasters, disrupt water supply and food production, and spread water and food-borne diseases. These impacts will exacerbate the existing social vulnerabilities by putting millions of lives at risk and leading to large-scale population movements. Climate change impacts could also lead to the escalation of existing inter-state tensions as disputes over scarce natural resources intensify and mass migrations ensue. Faced with rampant poverty, demographic pressures, scarce natural resources, intense urbanization, and malnutrition, the policy responses in India are inadequate to cope with the impacts of climate change. Adequacy of Policy Response to Climate Change Challenges

India lacks a comprehensive water management framework and its agriculture is heavily dependent on rain. The institutional arrangement for water management in India is complex and efforts to conserve and manage water resources are inconsistent across states. Water management is a competence of individual states, while the central government attempts to play a coordination role. These challenges will intensify as policy makers in India try to account for and manage the projected impacts of climate change on water resources. India is among the largest rain-fed agricultural economies in the world. This dependence leaves communities with little coping ability against precipitation variability, especially with the increasing occurrence of droughts, and higher probability of flooding and water-logging.

The national and state authorities have adopted several initiatives to increase food production, improve food accessibility and strengthen cooperation in the region to deal with food crises. At the national level, respective ministries have adopted plans to account for and adapt to climate change impacts. Following the global surge in food prices, the Public Distribution System (PDS) was implemented to control food price volatility and ensure the distribution of commodities to the public. Regional cooperation has also been established among countries of South Asia to coordinate food production and storage arrangements. Nevertheless, food security in India faces three challenges. First, the lack of soil management programs has led to an over-exploitation and mismanagement of soil and water resources. Second, some Indian Himalayan states lack crop storage facilities to enhance food security. Third, the Indian economy – especially the livelihood of the poor communities – is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Farmers who possess small landholdings for cultivation will be among the worst affected by climate change.

India is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters measured by the number of victims and damage costs. As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase with climate change, it is important for India to improve its preparedness and response capacities. India faces challenges with respect to its initial response capacity, the unclear division of responsibilities among government entities at multiple levels, and the lack of public awareness and education on community-based strategies against floods.

Climate change adaptation requires data, research outputs, and public awareness that enable the government and private entities to anticipate impacts and adopt concrete responses. A number of programs are in place to improve the availability of data at the state and national level in India and at the South Asia regional level. However, there is a lack of research on the impact of the changing climate patterns on the Himalayan region and the role of glacier melt on the water system in the region. Furthermore, assessments also call for additional and more precise local weather forecasts for farmers and improved early warning systems for weather events. Climate change adaptation and resiliency is further constrained by a relatively low level of public awareness on the available adaptation options. The high illiteracy rates, especially among the poor and rural communities, hamper the effective dissemination of information. There is also an evident lack of policies to guide the private sector on the risks and commercial opportunities arising from climate change adaption. The engagement of the private sector in

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developing climate change resistant infrastructure and services can address many of the present and expected challenges.

The level of cooperation among the countries of South Asia at the bilateral and multilateral level is inadequate. Ethnic and religious conflicts have tormented the societies in the region for decades and periodic tensions continue to arise especially between India and Pakistan. The persisting situation of distrust among parties is hampering cooperation that is essential in coordinating their individual efforts to resist the impacts of climate change and cooperating on data sharing, water management, and migration control. Recommendations to United States Government Agencies

This paper provides recommendations to three U.S. Government Agencies, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Department of Defense (DoD), and the Department of State (DoS). All recommendations are intended to increase the climate change adaptive capacity and as a result reduce the threats associated with these climate change impacts in India and the region of South Asia.

United States Agency for International Development

• For Water and Food Management, three recommendations are made: (1) Promote More Efficient Irrigation Management. USAID should support the Government of India in incorporating the Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) system into their irrigation projects throughout the Indian Himalayan Sub-Basin. This effort could help promote the conservation and efficient use of water resources. (2) Expand Watershed Management Programs to the Himalayan Region. This would reduce the negative impact of precipitation changes on agriculture and fresh water supply. (3) Develop Early Warning Systems. USAID should support developing new early warning systems for natural disasters, floods and drought forecasting. This would increase the overall food security by enabling farmers to take preventive measures in reducing the risks from weather variability.

• To tackle gaps in Natural Disaster Preparedness and Response, the concept paper recommends to Increase Local Resiliency to Extreme Events by Further Engaging Community Participation and Expanding Knowledge of Adaptation Strategies. USAID should support and facilitate best practices on information sharing and capacity building at the local level. Implementing reforestation programs can be a positive post disaster livelihood strategy - and training farmers in integrated farming systems, aquaculture, sedimentation clearance and floodwall construction can contribute to increased resilience in flood-prone areas of northern India.

• To improve Research, Data and Information Sharing, the two following recommendations are made: (1) Gather and Share Data through the Development of Data Networks. USAID should focus their efforts on addressing the need for more data and for more precise climate and climate change impact projections. (2) Support Local Capacity to Collect and Analyze Data. USAID should continue its assistance to international non-governmental organizations and research institutes in building their capacity to collect, store, consolidate and analyze climate data. USAID should also encourage and assist in the utilization of knowledge and expertise at the community level.

• To improve Public Awareness, the recommendations are the following: (1) Support the Inclusion of Climate Change Education in National Curriculums. USAID should provide technical expertise to the Government of India to include climate change education in its national curriculum. (2) Integrate Climate Change Awareness Modules to Adult Literacy Programs, Targeting Women Especially. USAID should support relevant institutions in fighting the existing structural vulnerabilities that may hamper the process of creating and transferring knowledge on adaptation strategies. Programs supporting literacy among adults,

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coupled with information on climate change, will increase the resiliency of local populations to climate change impacts. (3) Promote the Use of New Technologies to Disseminate Information and Knowledge. USAID should provide expertise for utilizing the existing technologies (cell phones and FM radio) to disseminate information to local communities on climate change risks and adaptation options.

• Finally, Public-Private Partnerships should be promoted. USAID should provide technical and policy expertise to the Government of India in developing and scaling up successful cases of public-private partnerships, with civil society collaboration, in infrastructure projects that aim at reducing climate change risks (e.g., drip irrigation systems), and within the service sector (e.g., insurance).

Department of Defense

• To improve Natural Disasters Preparedness and Response in the region, the paper recommends the Sharing of Best Practices in Cross-Agency Cooperation for Natural Disaster Response. The DoD should offer expertise, training, and information on best practices in the area of natural disaster management.

• To support Research, Data and Information Sharing, DoD should Use Existing Forums to Share Knowledge and Information. The DoD should utilize the existing platforms of cooperation in the region – such as the Pacific Partnership – to strengthen the dialogue between national governments and militaries, international NGOs and other USG agencies about regional climate change adaptation strategies.

Department of State

• To improve Food and Water Management, the DoS could Strengthen and Create Partnerships in the Region to Address Crop Storage Issues. The DoS should facilitate dialogue and cooperation among countries in South Asia in existing (i.e., the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation or SAARC) or new partnerships. The U.S. would be able to provide important technology transfers, water and food management expertise, and conservation methods that would help improve climate change adaptation in India.

• To support Research, Data and Information Sharing, two recommendations are made to DoS. (1) Increase Participation in Regional Forums. The DoS should take advantage of the already established forums and the Joint Task Force between the U.S. and India to expand cooperation on climate change adaptation. In this regard, conferences could facilitate information sharing between scientists and experts on climate change impacts and possible adaptation strategies. (2) Intra-India Information Sharing. The DoS should encourage the Government of India to create a standard data sharing practice among the various ministries – similar to the United States Global Change Research Program (USGRCP) – to ensure that all relevant information is available, in compatible formats, and with data sets bearing common syntax and semantics, for all parties concerned with climate change.

• To support Regional Cooperation, DoS is encouraged to Facilitate Discussions that Promote Mechanisms for Regional Collaboration. DoS should promote the collaboration among countries in South Asia by identifying common interests in the area of food and water management, and facilitating discussions on reaching agreements for partnerships.

Inter-Agency Cooperation

• USAID, DoD and DoS are encouraged to expand cooperation on climate change and coordinate their actions when planning for conflict scenarios and or natural disasters that would directly affect each of their missions. In addition to improving effectiveness, coordination will result in saving millions of dollars and ensuring long-lasting impact.

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Moreover, the three agencies should endeavor to collaborate with the public and private arms of the World Bank Group (IBRD/IDA and IFC), which have formidable climate change programs, with respect to many of the recommendation areas, in order to gain synergies and promote initiatives of common interest amongst the agencies and with the Government of India.

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INTRODUCTION

Climate change impacts are projected to threaten the livelihoods of millions across South Asia. India’s existing social and economic vulnerabilities are expected to exacerbate as climate change impacts intensify. With about 456 million people living on less than $1.25 a day,1 low literacy, and high infant mortality rates,2 India’s adaptive capacity is still low, despite the encouraging efforts made by the Government of India to adopt a number of programs aimed at adapting to climate change effects.

Building on the SIPA Capstone Team’s Impact Assessment Paper (IAP),3 this Concept Paper provides recommendations to three United States Government Agencies, namely the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Department of State (DoS) and the Department of Defense (DoD) on ways to support improved climate change adaptive capacity in the Indian Himalayan Sub-basin region. It focuses on three climate sensitive sectors: water, food security and natural disasters. These recommendations are also aimed at benefiting regional stability, as climate change impacts on natural resources and on international population movements may exacerbate tensions between India and its neighbors.4

Climate change adaptation is defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as an “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”5 In practice and in effect, the difference between climate change adaptation programs and development programs often is artificial – let us note, however, that it serves a purpose for international negotiations and in requests for explicit funding to adapt to potential climate change impacts. Indeed, development programs enhance adaptive capacity, while adaptation programs improve development levels. Nevertheless, the de facto differentiation between the development and adaptation does raise a challenge in terms of identifying existing adaptation programs and policy gaps. In order to keep our analysis focused on the adaptive capacity of the region, this paper considers any initiative resulting in the improvement of climate resiliency, regardless of their formal inclusion under the climate change adaptation umbrella.

The Concept Paper is divided into the three following sections: • Section I provides a summary of the findings of the IAP. Its analysis builds on

four orders of impacts: (1) the Biophysical and Ecosystem Level; (2) the Environmental Goods and Services Level; (3) the Societal Level; (4) and the National and Regional Stability Level.

• Section II analyzes the adequacy of policy responses to expected climate change impacts in the fields of water, food security, and natural disasters at the state, national, and regional levels, which will provide a general background on existing policies. It also considers three following crosscutting issues, all crucial in the context of climate change adaptation: (1) Research, Data and Information Sharing, (2) Public Awareness and Education, and (3) Regional Cooperation.

• Section III provides an analysis of current USAID, DoD and DoS climate change adaptation initiatives in India and a set of recommendations aimed at bridging key policy gaps. Recommendations are tailored specifically to the mission and capacities of the three agencies and are aimed at supporting increased climate resiliency capacity in the region, with the overarching objective of improving stability and security.

1 World Bank (2011). New Global Poverty Estimates [online]. Available at: http://www.worldbank.org.in/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/INDIAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21880725~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:295584,00.html. 2 World Bank (2011). Data and Statistics: India at a Glance [online]. Available at: http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/ind_aag.pdf. 3 A summary of the IAP can be found in section I of this Concept Paper. [Arias E., Camuzeaux J., Halili P., Massimino A., Ross J., Turner M., Climate Change and the Himalayan Sub-Basin of India: Impact Assessment Paper, Booz Allen Hamilton Climate Change Adaptation Capstone Workshop, School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, Spring 2011.] 4 Please refer to the IAP for a more detailed study of the potential impacts of climate change on regional stability. 5 UNFCCC (2011). Glossary [online]. Available at: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php#A.

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SECTION I. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE INDIAN HIMALAYAN SUB-BASIN6 With its growing population and rapid economic development, India will be facing new challenges as a key natural resource (i.e., water) and certain climate-dependent sectors (such as agriculture and health) will be adversely affected by climate change. According to World Bank estimates, 41.6% of the country’s population was living under the international poverty line in 2005.7 Because their coping capacity is already diminished, this part of the Indian population is expected to be the most affected. In the country’s rural areas, which housed 70.2% of the population in 2009, 8 climate change will threaten water availability, food security and human health, as well as the livelihoods of millions of Indians whose revenues depend on agriculture. In the cities, these effects will be worsened by intense urbanization trends, which put more people at risk in extreme weather events, and exacerbate the stress on urban water and food systems. In this complex context, it is critical for India to enhance and invest in its adaptive capacity.

The IAP identified multiple orders of climate change impacts to the region of interest:9

• First-Order: Biophysical and Ecosystem Level (Temperatures, Precipitation Patterns, Glacier Changes, Extreme Weather Events, and Sea-level Rise)

• Second-Order: Environmental Goods and Services (Water and Food) • Third-Order: Societal Level (Water, Food and Health) • Fourth-Order: National and Regional Stability Level (Security and Lack of Adaptive Capacity)

Forecasting the impacts of climate change in such a region as the Himalayan sub-basin of India is a complex endeavor. The uncertainties in climate change science itself have caused disagreements among projection models. Furthermore, by exploring several orders of impacts, we had to acknowledge that uncertainty increases as we moved further away from the direct biophysical consequences of climate change.

The biophysical and ecosystem level will be significantly affected. Specifically, the assessment identified the following impacts: increases in average and extreme temperatures; disruption of precipitation patterns; changes in glacier mass balance; more frequent glacier lake outburst floods; increase in the intensity and frequency of such extreme weather events as floods, droughts and severe storms; and sea-level rise.

Within the Environmental Goods and Services level and the societal level, water systems will be affected with the rise in temperature and the disruption of precipitation patterns. A decrease in water availability will likely impact over 500 million Indians dependent on water supply from the Indo-Gangetic river system. Water-related hazards, including floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, putting millions at risk. In turn, increased flooding is likely to degrade water quality in a country where only 68.2% of the population has access to safe drinking water.10

Food security will also be a challenge, as the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity is expected to be exacerbated by the rise in demand due to increased population and economic development. Wheat production could significantly drop, increasing the number of people at risk of hunger by 200

6 This section is based on the executive summary of the IAP previously mentioned. Please turn to this report for a more detailed account of climate change impacts in the region. 7 Latest available World Bank data (the $1.25 poverty line is calculated at 2005 purchasing power parity prices). Chen, Shaohua and Martin Ravallion (2008). The Developing World is Poorer than we Thought, but no Less Successful in the Fight against Poverty. Policy Research working paper 4703, Washington DC, World Bank. 8 The World Bank (2011). India Data [online]. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/country/india. 9 The Indian Himalayan Sub-basin includes five Indian States: Jammu & Kashmir, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. 10 Sharma, Bharat et al. (2008) Indo-Gangetic River Basins: Summary Situation Analysis. International Water Management Institute, New Delhi Office, New Delhi, India.

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million.11 In 2050, the number of food-secure people in the Indo-Gangetic basin is expected to decrease by 26.3 million people – with 2.4 million in the Ganges basin alone.12 These climate change impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the rise in food grain requirement (by almost 50% by 2020) in the region due to population and economic growth.13

The effect of these changes on the population’s health can be expected to be dire, especially for the poorer, rural communities. Deaths related to extreme weather events are likely to increase, affecting the part of the population with inadequate abilities to cope or manage these impacts. Water- and food-borne diseases are also expected to spread. Perhaps more threatening is the increase in food insecurity in a country already plagued by malnutrition.

At the National and Regional Stability level, climate change could aggravate already existing tensions as the stress on natural resources worsens and possible medium to large-scale population movements occur. National stability could be threatened by water disputes between states, food crises, and internal migration, all of which have the potential of triggering social unrest. At the regional scale, relationships with Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan are likely to be stressed as these countries dispute natural resource claims and their responsibilities with respect to external mass migrations.

Faced with the numerous new challenges the IAP identified, it is crucial for India to strengthen its adaptive capacity in order to guarantee its continued economic development. Tackling these future challenges is also essential for the global community at large, as climate change could begin to threaten regional stability in the region. The next section analyzes the policy response at multiple levels to the challenges summarized here, and identifies key gaps and improvement areas.

11 World Health Organization (2007). National Workshop on Climate Change and its Impact on Health: Climate Change and Food Security in India. by Chaudhary A, Aggarwal PK. 26-27th November 2007. 12 Immerzeel et al (2010) Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers, Science 11 June 2010: 1382-1385. [DOI:10.1126/science.1183188]. 13 Paroda R.S., Kumar P, (2000) Food production and demand in South Asia, Agricultural Economics Research Review 13 (1), pp. 124.

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SECTION II. ADEQUACY OF POLICY RESPONSE

I. WATER The Himalayan basin is essential for the water security of India and its neighbors. Efforts to conserve and manage this resource appropriately have been put into place at all levels, but policy response needs more coordination in order to increase regional resiliency to the impacts of climate change. After analyzing the initiatives currently in place at the state, national and regional level, this research effort has determined that the main policy gaps concern the water management framework, and the dependence on rain-fed agriculture. State level. Jammu & Kashmir provide a good example of what can be done at the state level to increase resiliency to climate change impacts. Indeed, the Ladakh14 region developed in 2005 a long-term plan on climate change adaptation focused on water and technology.15 It includes policies for reduction in water pollution, improvement of water harvesting, and distribution and the design of infrastructure resilient to extreme temperatures, flood protection16 and technology improvements to watermills to address pico-hydro schemes.17 The state of Sikkim as well has been very active: it developed a state plan whose top priority is water resources in both urban and rural areas and a renewed focus on glacial studies. The state of Uttar Pradesh is working on flood prevention, setting up a Central Water Commission (CWC) to provide timely information on the water levels of its major rivers. While some states are very active, no relevant information was found for others such as Arunachal Pradesh. National level. In June 2008, India released its first National Action Plan on Climate Change. Among the eight actions identified, the National Water Mission sets the following priorities: (1) studies on management of surface water resources, (2) management and regulation of groundwater resources, (3) upgrading storage structures for freshwater and drainage systems for wastewater, (4) conservation of wetlands.18 Regional Level. For existing regional initiatives on water, refer to section IV-c. Two main areas are identified as regional policy challenges that will help address future climate change impacts on water. Importance of a Clear Water Management Framework. There are currently many water related actions taking place in India. However, the complexity of the institutional system in water management reveals the opportunity for better-coordinated efforts. Multiple layers of governance exist at the national (Ministry of Water Resources)19 and state (Regional Central Groundwater Boards)20 levels. Meanwhile a

14 While being part of Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh is a semi-autonomous region, with approximately 2.3 million people. Its geopolitical position made it a hots.pot for military operations in the complex border issues among China, Pakistan and India. Ladakh hosts a permanent military presence. 15 LAHDC (2005), Ladakh 2025 - A Road Map for progress and prosperity. Ladakh 2025 Vision Document. Ladakh: Autonomous Hill Development Council. 16 In August 2010 Ladakh was devastated by a flash flood produced by a cloudburst. The city of Nimoo-Basgo and surrounding villages were inundated with enormous damage for homes, farmlands, roads, and infrastructures, as well as human lives. 17 Pico hydro refers to the use of hydroelectric power generation for small communities needing less than 5 kW of electricity. The plan is also interesting from a decision making perspective as it was developed by the state government with the participation of community leaders that had deeper knowledge of the local needs and exert influence at the community level. From: Daultrey S et al (2011) Living With Change: Adaptation and Innovation in Ladakh, Climate Adaptation. February 2011 issue. 18 The National Action Plan on Climate Change can be found at the following website: http://pmindia.nic.in/climate_change.htm 19 Ministry of Water Resources (2011) National authority for the resource planning and management [online]. Available at: http://mowr.gov.in/index1.asp?linkid=201&langid=1.

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number of different entities and programs have been created, which include several river boards21 and technical bodies (Central Water Commission, 22 Central Groundwater Board, 23 National Water Development Agency, 24 Watershed Development Program, 25 and Command Area Development Program).26 Finally, a further layer has been created to coordinate inter-state and central-state actions, organized through the River Boards Act of 1956, the National Water Resources Council (formed by the Prime Minister, the Minister of Water Resources and the Chief Ministers of each state), and its executive arm the National Water Board.27 The responsibilities of water management are also spread across many different government institutions such as irrigation/water resources departments, public works departments, revenue departments, groundwater boards, minor irrigation corporations, pollution control boards, and municipal corporations.28 Water management will be increasingly difficult in India as policy makers try to account for and manage the projected impacts of climate change on water resources. These projected impacts will be compounded by other factors such as population growth and rising per capita water use. Better coordination among water managers, planners, and key stakeholders will create a more efficient and effective water management system. This is critical as water resources become increasingly strained due to climate change. Dependence on Rainfed Agriculture. Strategic water management policies are critical in addressing the impacts of climate change on the Indian Himalayan Sub-basin. Water management policies should be strengthened to reflect the current vulnerabilities in this region. For example, while there has been a major effort in India to develop irrigated agriculture through investments in research and infrastructure, there is still a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture in the country.29 India is among the largest rain-fed agricultural economies in the world, with approximately 68% sown area being rain-fed agriculture and supporting approximately 40% of India’s population.30 In the terraced slopes of some Himalayan regions, 85% of the total agricultural lands are rainfed while the remaining 15% found in the valleys are irrigated.31 This dependence leaves communities with little coping ability against precipitation variability, 20 You can find more information on India’s Regional Central Groundwater Boards on the Ministry of Water Resources’ website, available at: http://india.gov.in/sectors/water_resources/ministry_water.php. 21 “River boards include the Tungabhadra Board, Bhakra Beas Management Board, Brahmaputra Board, Betwa River Board, Bansagar Control Board, Ganga Flood Control Commission, Narmada Control Authority, and Upper Yamuna Board all formed by Government notifications or resolutions”. From Singh N. (2011) Federalism and Water Management in India, UC Santa Cruz page 8. 22 “The Commission is entrusted with the general responsibilities of initiating, coordinating and furthering in consultation of the State Governments concerned, schemes for control, conservation and utilization of water resources throughout the country, for purpose of Flood Control, Irrigation, Navigation, Drinking Water Supply and Water Power Development.” From Central Water Commission (2011) [online]. Available at: http://www.cwc.nic.in/. 23 Technical body for regional hydrogeological information. From Ministry of Water Resources (2011). Central Ground Water Board [online]. Available at: http://cgwb.gov.in/. 24 In their “Himalayan Rivers Development Component” they work on the potential construction of a connection and reservoirs system on the principal tributaries of Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers in India, Nepal and Bhutan. From National Water Development Agency (2011) [online]. Available at: http://nwda.gov.in/. 25 Soil and water conservation. From Government of India – National Portal of India (2011). National Watershed Development Programme [online]. Available at: http://india.gov.in/sectors/agriculture/watershed_development.php. 26 Irrigation water, agricultural productivity, resilience of infrastructures. From Government of India – National Portal of India (2011). Command Area Development and Water Management Programme [online]. Available at: http://india.gov.in/sectors/water_resources/command_program.php. 27 Levina et al. (2006) Domestic Policy Frameworks For Adaptation To Climate Change In The Water Sector, Part I: Non-Annex I Countries, Lessons Learned From Mexico, India, Argentina And Zimbabwe. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 28 Ibid. 29 Kerr, John, et. al. (1996). Sustainable Development of Rainfed Agriculture in India. EPTD Discussion Paper no. 20. Washington D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. 30 Sharma, Bharat et. al (1995). Converting Rain into Grain: Opportunities for Realizing the Potential of Rainfed Agriculture in India. Colombo: International Water Management Institute. 31 Misra, Shalini et. al. (2008). Indigenous soil management to revive below ground biodiversity - case of Garhwal. Leisa India. June 2008 issue.

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a projected impact of climate change in the region. The precious monsoon rains that deliver up to 70% of the total annual rainfall to India from June to September also create the main season for the cultivation of rain-fed crops throughout most of the country.32 Yet, the principal reason for crop failures and low yields in India are the regular occurrence of mid-seasonal and terminal droughts.33 Furthermore, the uneven distribution of rainfall can lead to waterlogging or drought conditions. As previously explained, climate change is expected to cause disruptions in precipitation patterns as well as increase the occurrences and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and severe storms.34 This precarious reliance on seasonal rain patterns highlights the acute need for anticipatory systems and water management strategies that create resilience to precipitation variability. Public policy supported by strong civil society and stakeholder consensus must ensure that there are continued investments in Early Warning Systems (EWS), irrigation infrastructure and storage capacity as well as water programs that address drainage and water harvesting.35

II. FOOD SECURITY With a growing population and with a high malnutrition rate among children, India is focusing on food security policies that also take account of projected impacts of climate change. At the state level only information from the state of Sikkim has been found. At the national and the regional levels several initiatives are in place to increase production, improve food accessibility and strengthen cooperation in the region to tackle food crises. Yet, the area faces multiple challenges concerning soil management, crop storage and dependence on agricultural activities. State level. In the state of Sikkim, the local climate change action plan includes the identification of indigenous crop varieties – which are more resilient to climate change – as well as awareness and capacity building programs for rural people.36 Climate variability – especially regarding the monsoon – is also addressed in a proactive way through anticipatory measures. Drought, floods and good weather codes37 will be prepared by the State Science and Technology Department to allow farmers to build seed stock and contingency plans according to favorable or unfavorable weather forecasts. Official information about initiatives in other states has not been found. National level. The National Action Plan on Climate Change contains a National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, focused on the following areas: (1) dry-land agriculture – e.g., developing drought resistant crops; (2) risk management – e.g., improving current agri-insurance policies; (3) access to information – e.g., development of a regional database on agriculture information; and (4) use of biotechnology – e.g., development of improved crops. The Ministry of Agriculture is in charge of the overall management of food production and distribution in the country. In its most recent Annual Report (2009-2010), the ministry presents a strategy for climate change adaptation that includes: (1) the development and deployment of technology tools for increasing productivity and reducing vulnerability; (2) the increase in the production of food grain in order to respond to the expected decrease in productivity from temperature rise and extreme weather events; (3) increased water use efficiency; and (4) improved risk management

32 Ibid. 33 Ibid. 34 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp. 35 Ibid. 36 Arrawatia M, (2011) Sikkim Initiatives on Sustainable Development, Glacier Studies and Climate Change Adaptation Programmes. IFS Secretary Science and Technology and Climate Change Government of Sikkim Gangtok. 37 A weather code is an international tool used to report local weather conditions.

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systems to deal with climatic variability, risks and pests/diseases.38 Within the Ministry for several decades now, the National Crop Weather Watch Group39 actively monitors crop growth conditions, with an emphasis on weather scale anomalies. Finally, the Indian Public Distribution System is charged with controlling food price volatility, and ensuring the distribution of basic commodities, including food grain, through a network of fair price shops.40 Regional level. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)41 has put various mechanisms in place. The SAARC Agricultural Perspective/Vision 2020 set priorities related to production increase, natural resources management, seed management, climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, smallholder farmers and livelihood diversification. Also SAARC established a Food Security Reserve, through which every SAARC member state sets up a storage facility near the border where their pledged quantity of food grains (rice or wheat) can be stored. The SAARC Food Bank Board also carries out periodical analyses of the regional food scenario (requirement, production, and shortfall/deficit). Three main areas have been identified as crucial for policy improvement in order to better tackle future climate change impacts upon food security. Soil Management. Small farm holders in the Indian Himalayas are suffering from the deteriorating quality of food production due to nutrient loss, imbalanced application of nutrients, and decrease in water quality.42 On an annual basis, India loses approximately 0.8 million tons of nitrogen, 1.8 million tons of phosphorus, and 26.3 million tons of potassium. These nutrient losses occur during the crop production cycle and eventually cause a deterioration of the health and quality of the soil. Soil in the Himalayas, which is predominantly under rain-fed agriculture, is particularly vulnerable to losses due to topography, heavy seasonal rainfall and intensive agricultural practices. Because land and water quality is so critical for agricultural production, policies must be targeted to address the over-exploitation and mismanagement of soil and water resources, especially in the context of projected climate change.43 Crop Storage. There is increasing attention on the lack of crop storage capacity in some Indian Himalayan states. For instance, in April of 2011, Uttar Pradesh was reported to be facing a serious shortage of food storage space. While Uttar Pradesh is expected to produce 30 million tons of wheat in 2011, their storage capacity is limited to 7 million tons.44 In India, crop storage is an important means of protecting food grain and ensuring food security as approximately 70% of produce is stored by farmers for their own consumption.45 As indicated by the recent shortage, public/private policies and investment in crop storage are essential.

38 Ministry of Agriculture (2011) Department of Agriculture and Cooperation Annual Report 2010-2011 [online]. Available at http://agricoop.nic.in/docs.htm. 39 Asian Disaster Management Center News (2011) [online]. Available at: http://www.adpc.net/irc06/2002/07-09/theme5.html. 40 Department of Food and Public Distribution (2011). Targeted Public Distribution System [online]. Available at: http://fcamin.nic.in/dfpd/EventDetails.asp?EventId=26&Section=PDS&ParentID=0&Parent=1&check=0.41 SAARC is a regional organization formed by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka that aims at support cooperation in the following areas: agriculture, biotechnology, economy, culture, energy, environment, information and communication, technology, human resources development, tourism, security, trade and poverty alleviation. From South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (2011) [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/SAARC-Charter/5/. 42 Micevska, Maja. (2008) Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in the Himalayas. Journal of Economic Development and Cultural Change 1: 163-193. 43 Ibid. 44 Unknown Author (April 2011). Indian states short of grain storage space. Commodity Online [online]. Available at: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Indian-states-short-of-grain-storage-space-37956-3-1.html 45 FAO Group for Assistance for On System Relating to Grain After Harvest (1992). Research and development issues in grain postharvest problems in Asia: Group for Assistance for On System Relating to Grain After Harvest. Paris: GASCA.

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Dependency on Agricultural Activities. The projected impacts of climate change will leave communities particularly vulnerable as agriculture, which is the main source of revenue for 60% of the rural population, will be adversely affected.46 Smallholders, farmers who possess small landholdings for cultivation, dominate the majority of India’s agriculture sector. There is evidence that smallholders will be among the worst affected by climate change in India.47 While the total number of smallholders has significantly increased in the last 40 years from 70 million to 121 million, the size of land farmers are cultivating is steadily decreasing. From 1970 to 2001, the average size of a single landholding declined from 2.30 ha to 1.32 ha and if this trend continues, landholdings would decrease to 0.32 ha in 2030.48 In the Garhwal Himalayas, in Northern India, the per capita land holding is estimated to be about 0.02 ha.49 High dependence on agriculture for survival coupled with the shrinking size of landholdings increases vulnerability to climate change as any disruption to cultivation would seriously affect primary sources of food and income for many families. The lack of alternative income-generating opportunities leaves subsistence farmers with few options if crops fail.50 A study done in the Indian state of Sikkim found that populations regularly rely on nonfarm employment as a coping strategy to deal with income shocks in agriculture 51 Without proper investment in non-farm activities, harmful impacts to agricultural production, triggered by adverse effects of climate change in the medium-term, could force large numbers of smallholders and their families to migrate to other areas of India in search of other means of survival, which further exacerbates the existing and precarious food security situation within India.

III. NATURAL DISASTERS According to the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), India is one of the top ten countries most affected by disasters in numbers of victims and damage costs 52 With the likely increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change, it will be crucial for India to put in place strategies to improve preparedness and response to natural disasters. The main policy challenges identified here concern the initial response to natural disasters, the division of responsibilities among government entities at multiple levels, public awareness and education, and community-based strategies against floods. State level. Some community-based strategies for natural disaster management have been developed through government initiatives as well as through local or international organizations. For example, the Indian government regularly organizes the training of community teams in early warning dissemination, search and rescue assistance, and first aid support.53 In Himachal Pradesh, the government is planning to create a Centre for Climate Change, Disaster Management, and Snow and Glacier Studies, aimed at planning climate change mitigation and adaptation actions, increasing preparedness and resiliency to natural disasters, and working as a resource information source on climate change and natural resources.54

46 Dr. Rajendra Prasad Road et. al. (2011). Vision 2030. New Delhi: Indian Council on Agricultural Research. 47 Asia and the Pacific Division International Fund for Agricultural Development (March, 2011). Agriculture – Pathways to Prosperity in Asia and the Pacific. Asia and the Pacific Division International Fund for Agricultural Development. 48 Dr. Rajendra Prasad Road et. al., 2011. 49 Misra, Shalini et. al., 2008. 50 Ibid. 51 Micevska, 2008. 52 Vos F et al. (2010) Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2009: The Numbers and Trends. Brussels: CRED. 53 Government of India. Ministry of Home Affairs (Unknown year) [online]. Report available at http://www.unisdr.org/eng/country-inform/reports/India-report.pdf. 54 ADB (2010) Climate Change Adaptation in Himachal Pradesh: Sustainable Strategies for Water Resources. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. The state government of Himachal Pradesh requested the preparation of a Climate Change Adaptation Focused Sustainable Water Resources Strategy. The study was funded under ADB’s Water Financing Program and is available at the following link: http://www.adb.org/documents/books/cca-himachal-pradesh/default.asp.

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In Uttar Pradesh as well, disaster management is tackled through the Disaster Management Act of 200555 and the Uttar Pradesh Disaster Management Authority. In general, disaster risk reduction in India is a responsibility assigned to the state, a financial burden that is to a certain extent compensated through national initiatives. As a post-disaster measure, the Disaster Management Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs created a Calamity Relief Fund. This fund is intended to offer monetary compensation over injuries, material loss, debris removal and agriculture crops. It acts as a non-premium insurance system for the population, in the event of natural disasters. Yet, state governments are also required to have a contingency fund to respond in such an event. Nevertheless, research has shown that the National Disaster Management Fund and the Disaster Management Group created at the national level have been used infrequently in vulnerable areas, such as the Himalayan states.56 National level. A Disaster Management Bill was approved by the government, which created a High Powered Committee with the mandate to prepare a disaster management plan at the national, state and district levels. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), part of the Government of India, is in charge of pre-disaster (prevention, mitigation and preparedness) and post-disaster (response, rehabilitation and reconstruction) management. The NDMA is responsible for enacting policies, plans and guidelines on climate related disasters, amongst others, such as floods, cyclones, river erosion, landslides and forest fires. The Ministry of Agriculture has put in place a Drought Management system to prevent and mitigate the consequences of droughts. The system provides early warning, monitoring and reporting, information dissemination, strategic planning and coordination among different agencies.57 Regional level. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) established a SAARC Disaster Management Centre to provide capacity building.58 The center carries out activities related to policy advice and capacity building including “strategic learning, research, training, system development, expertise promotion and exchange of information for effective disaster risk reduction and management,”59 as well as more recently, the elaboration of a Natural Disaster Rapid Response Mechanism.60 The United Nations Development Program UNDP is also involved in improving Indian resiliency to natural disasters. Their project focuses mainly on training, knowledge sharing and skills building at the state, district and community levels, and it is mainly targeting women. Also two web-portals have been created: the India Disaster Resource Network (IDRN) to help district authorities identify available material and human resources required in emergency; and the India Disaster Knowledge Network (IDKN) to promote collaboration among institutions and organizations involved in disaster management.61 The following main areas have been identified to be crucial for policy improvement in order to better prepare for and respond to natural disasters and extreme weather events. Unclear Division of Responsibilities between the State and Federal levels in Post-Disaster Management. It is still unclear how different levels of government divide their duties to manage disaster once it occurs. The response to the 2010 floods in northern India indicated the need to strengthen 55 The Plan includes regulation on the preparatory and post disaster measures and responses, and manages responsibilities among major stakeholders. 56 R.D. Singh and Purnima Singh (2007). Geo-tectonic movement and natural hazards: Strategy for disaster preparedness and mitigation. J. Ind. Geophys. Union 11(3): 171-173. 57 Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India, Department of Agriculture and cooperation (2011). Drought Management [online]. Available at: http://agricoop.nic.in/DroughtMgmt/drought.htm. 58 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (2011). SAARC Disaster Management Centre [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/areaofcooperation/cat-detail.php?cat_id=54. 59 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (2011) Technical Committee Agriculture & Rural Development [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/areaofcooperation/cat-detail.php?cat_id=44. 60 Ibid. 61 UNDP (2011). India, Crisis Prevention & Recovery [online]. Available at: http://www.undp.org.in/whatwedo/crisis_prevention_and_recovery.

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communication between national and state-level authorities. Evidence has shown that national authorities intervene in local contexts only when the local government intervention is insufficient or mismanaged.62 Insufficient Awareness in local communities and local authorities. Local authorities have the main responsibility in dealing with natural disaster management. Evidence shows that in regards to flood management, inefficiencies tend to be the consequence of a lack of adequate involvement from the local authorities as well as from the local population, which decreases the effectiveness in responding to natural disasters.63 Insufficient local communities' involvement to flood management strategies is worsened by insufficient monetary assistance to enhance livelihood adaptation strategies, which would strengthen the communities' resilience both before and after the damage takes place. Insufficient community-based strategies to prepare for and react to floods. Research indicates that there seems to be limited local government effort to enhance communities' resiliency to floods – such as through the construction of floodwalls – as well as to cope with flood damages.64 In particular, policies to strengthen local communities' livelihood to prepare for and resist flooding are scarce. Most local communities depend on small farming production, which make it more difficult for farmers to recover after natural disasters. The current lack of integrated farming systems implementation,65 coupled with the decreasing average farming plot size in the Indian Himalayas, decreases the community's ability to withstand difficult natural conditions.66

IV. CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES This sub-section identifies three cross-cutting issues that must be addressed to strengthen India’s adaptive capacity to climate change impacts: (a) Research, Data and Information Sharing; (b) Public Awareness and Education; and (c) Regional Cooperation.

a. Research, Data and Information Sharing

One of the most critical aspects of developing climate change adaptation policies comes from the need for localized, short to medium term climate change impact assessments. There is a great need to share data and research outputs towards anticipatory system planning in order to reduce vulnerability. While initiatives are in place at the state, national and regional levels, this research effort revealed that more concerted actions are needed to appropriately collect and share climate data and information. State Level. The State of Sikkim recently added a climate change wing to its Science and Technology Department. Research and surveys regarding impacts of climate change and pilot projects on climate change adaptation have been undertaken in the framework of the State Climate Change Action Plan.67 Again in this case, Sikkim was the only state within the Himalayan Basin to have official information on current initiatives.

62 Ibid. 63 Levina et al., 2006, p. 39. 64 Ibid 65 Integrated farming systems are agricultural methods that integrate livestock and crops. 66 Agricultural research service (2011). Integrated farming systems [online]. Available at: http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/programs/programs.htm?NP_CODE=207&docid=329 67 Arrawatia, 2011.

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National Level. The National Action Plan on Climate Change includes a National Mission for Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change which sets the following priorities: (1) improved regional climate modeling; (2) increased observational networks and data collection; and (3) strengthening networks and fostering data access. The National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem also aims to: (1) continue and improve monitoring of the Himalayan ecosystem; and (2) exchange scientific information with neighboring countries. In 2009 a Center for Climate Change Research was established at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The Center’s objectives, among others, are: (1) generating high-resolution regional climate change scenarios; (2) assessing the impact of climate change on the Monsoon and how it relates to water resources and agriculture; and (3) developing a Climate Change Data Archive.68 Regional Level. Within the SAARC, an Agriculture Center (SAC) was created. One of the initiatives of SAC is the SACNet program, which created a web-based information network to provide agricultural information access and facilitate the exchange of knowledge and best practices, among the member countries of the organization. Despite the current efforts, there still exists a lack of climate related information at all levels of civil society and government both within the country and throughout the region as a whole.69 Properly managing the risk of climate change is impossible if there is a lack of reliable and timely information and knowledge to predict climate change induced risks. Climate. In the latest IPCC Assessment Report, issued in November 2007, there are two illustrations that show the Himalayan region as an area where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of change, also called a “white spot.”70 One illustration offers projections of precipitation changes and the other offers projected changes in water runoff by the end of the 21st century. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) speculates that these “white spots” could be due to a “lack of consistent long-term data.” 71 The Indian Government has stated these gaps in data are a result of inadequate computing power, difficulties in gathering climate data, and a lack of highly trained academics and technical experts on climate change within South Asia.72 These are some of the many challenges that climate change experts are faced with when trying to downscale regional or global climate models to local climate models in order to assess future climate impacts. Water. To properly understand how climate change will affect water security in the region, it is important to understand the role that glacier melt has on the water systems in the Himalayan region. Even India’s Ministry of Environment & Forest (MOEF) has acknowledged, in a discussion paper published in November 2009, that the “Himalayan River System has […] a direct bearing on the national growth [of India].” 73 However, despite the stated importance, the paper recognizes that there has been a “lack of interest on the part of various institutes and equally poor response by the user agencies” 74 when it comes

68 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (2011). Center for Climate Change Research [online]. Available at http://www.tropmet.res.in/static_page.php?page_id=102. 69 South Asia Region Sustainable Development Department (2009). South Asia: Shared Views on Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: The World Bank, pp. 61. 70 Bernstein, Lenny, et al. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain 12-17 November 2007. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 47, 49. 71 The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. ICIMOD's Position on Climate Change and Mountain System. Sustainable Mountain Development (Aug-Nov 2008), pp. 330. 72 Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change (2008) National Action Plan on Climate Change. New Delhi: Government of India, pp. 36. 73 Raina, V.K. (2009). Himalayan Glaciers: A State-of-Art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change. New Delhi: Ministry of Environment and Forest, pp. 43. 74 Ibid.

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to monitoring and measuring glacial retreat in the region.75 Another problem is that most of the data that exists on the Himalayan glacier has been collected by remote sensing technology. The Mountain Institute (TMI) noted that there has been little effort to add field analyses – or to understand the perception and insights of local communities – to laboratory-based studies; this makes it difficult to identify precise risks and most importantly, viable adaptation options for communities.76 The MOEF paper reiterates this concern and recognizes that such studies are necessary to “predict the impact of the meteorological parameters of any glacier bearing basin.”77 Food. The India Meteorological Department has an Agrometeorological Advisory Service that provides farmers with information at the National, State and District level to properly plan for and manage their crops given predicted weather forecasts.78 However the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) has stated that additional data is needed to provide more detailed forecasts at the local level.79 Moreover, there is some scientific research to develop crops that are more resistant to climate variability, pests or are saline-resistant. However, given the increasing complexity and considerable investment required to develop these sophisticated technologies, plus the need to make the crops specific to a geographic location, there is a need to intensify the research and funding devoted to this adaptation strategy to make it effective.80 81 Natural Disasters. There is also a need for the development or improvement of weather forecasting models and early warning systems for extreme weather events. Predicting and preparing for the increased frequency and intensity of floods, cyclones and drought will be vital to sustaining both agricultural growth and the increased population in the region.82 Although some information channels do exist, few of them provide farmers with real-time climate information and are not customizable to their specific geographic location.83 Concurrently, at the receiving end, small shareholders in the region must possess hand-held, mobile communication devices or FM frequency radios (with external batteries) in order to take advantage of such climate information. Intra-India Information Sharing. Understanding climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that combines the expertise of scientists, health and technology experts, economists and politicians. As pointed out by INCCA, “current data on observations on climate, natural ecosystems, soils, water from different sources, agricultural productivity and inputs and socio-economic parameters amongst others are continuously required.”84 However, there is currently no uniform system to facilitate the collection and or sharing of climate related data between the various ministries and departments within India.85 Digitization of data and streamlining access procedures are also needed to ensure that adaptation strategies are developed holistically.86

75 Ibid. 76 Malone, Elizabeth L. (2010). Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia: Addressing Vulnerabilities to Glacier Melt Impacts. United States Agency for International Development, Washington DC, pp. 46. 77 Raina, 2009, pp. 44. 78 Agrometeorological Advisory Service (2011). India Meteorological Department. [online] Available at: http://www.imd.gov.in/services/agromet/agromet-advisory-services.htm. 79 India Network for Climate Change Assessement (INCCA) (2010). Climate Change India:A 4x4 Assessement. New Delhi: Ministry of Environments and Forests, pp. 142. 80 South Asia Region Sustainable Development Department, 2009, pp. 104. 81 INCCA, 2010. 82 Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change, 2008, pp. 36. 83 South Asia Region Sustainable Development Department, 2009, pp. 106, 148. 84 INCCA, 2010, pp. 142. 85 Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change, 2008, pp. 37. 86 Ibid.

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Regional Data and Information Sharing. Much of the data that is needed to adequately develop regional climate models, predictions about water basins and specific water systems must be drawn from large geographical areas that cross multiple political boundaries.87 Therefore it is critical to allow researchers to collect data across borders but also to share that information. Unfortunately, South Asia has a reputation for being one of the least integrated areas in the world. This reality has caused a substantial lack of cooperation bi-laterally and regionally when it comes to climate change assessments and data collection and sharing among the countries of the area.88

b. Public Awareness and Education Because climate change adaptation must start at the very local level to be truly effective, public awareness, especially among the rural population, is a key aspect of adaptation strategies. Low literacy rates and private sector engagement will represent two key areas of improvement in order to enhance climate change adaptive capacity. State Level. The state of Sikkim set up more than 15 “Village Resource Centers” 89 aimed at increasing public awareness and education through training, scientific awareness and use of remote sensing and GIS technology. Also, the state plan includes the need to increase consultation and sharing of best practices among the Himalayan States about environmental conservation and climate change adaptation.90 Further examples at the state and community levels have not been found in the available literature. National Level. The National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, contained in the National Action Plan on Climate Change includes action to exchange information, empower local communities to better use resources, and adopt appropriate land and watershed management practices. Regional Level. SAARC adopted in 2008 the Dhaka Declaration and the SAARC Action Plan on Climate Change aimed at “pursuing a climate resilient development in South Asia.” 91 States are required to pursue advocacy and awareness programs, cooperate on capacity building, share best practices, adaptation measures, and develop “south-south cooperation on technology development and transfer.”92 SAARC is working on an initiative aimed at strengthening the “Research-Extension-Farmers Linkages.”93 The initiative will improve the development and deployment of agricultural technologies by increasing research and connecting universities to farmers.94 International Level. The UNFCCC95 launched the global “database on local coping strategies”96 where information on adaptation activities is collected and made readily available to the public. From a total of about 200 strategies in the database, 35 come from India, 23 from Bangladesh, 4 from Nepal, and one from Pakistan. Even though this data-sharing platform is a good step towards future coordination in international level, the dissemination of information at the local level in India remains a challenge.

87 Malone, 2010, pp. 46. 88 Ibid. 89 Arrawatia, 2011. 90 Ibid. 91 SAARC (2011). Summit Declarations [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/Summit-Declarations/67/. 92 Ibid. 93 SAARC (2011). Meeting of SAARC Agriculture/ Food Ministers [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/areaofcooperation/detail.php?activity_id=26. 94 Ibid. 95 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 96 UNFCCC (2011). Local Coping Strategies Database [online]. Available at: http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/.

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Despite the encouraging efforts made by the Government of India and several state governments to adopt a number of programs for climate change adaptation in the area of water management, agricultural productivity, and disaster management, the level of resiliency at the local level remains low. The adaptation measures implemented so far by local communities are reactive in nature.97 These measures will not be sufficient and effective. The lack of awareness among poor communities on climate change risks and adaptation options is not conducive to developing community-based anticipatory adaptation measures. The existing social vulnerabilities, including poverty and marginalization, have a negative effect on the local adaptive capacity. In general, in addition to lacking the resources for adaptation, poor communities also depend on the ecosystem for their livelihoods. This makes them particularly sensitive to adverse impacts on the ecosystem due to climate change. Low Literacy Rates. Compared to the 80 percent average literacy rate for other lower-middle income countries, India’s rate of 63 percent98 is discouraging. The situation is worse among women and rural and remote communities where high illiteracy rates hamper the effective dissemination of information on climate change risks and adaptation. The literacy rate for women, 15 years and older, is only 50.8 percent.99 Similarly, the rate for men, 75.2 percent,100 is also low compared to other countries with equivalent levels of development. As a result of an overall improvement in the education system in India in the recent years, the literacy rate among female youth between 15 and 24 years has increased to an encouraging 74.4 percent.101 This progress is primarily a result of an increase in the gross enrollment rates at all levels and in the rates of progression and school completion.102 Nevertheless, given the low literacy rate among older generations, and the link between literacy and successful dissemination of climate change adaptation information, the short-term prospects for successful adaptation are bleak. Lack of Private Sector Engagement. Resilience requires government institutions to develop regulatory frameworks and implementation mechanisms for disaster and climate change risk management. Even though climate change models and vulnerability assessments provide information on climate change risks to India’s public infrastructure, the existing legal framework and policy implementation mechanisms do not provide private sector institutions with the needed guidelines – or incentives – for developing and adapting their risk resistant assets. A report commissioned by the International Finance Corporation (IFC)103 recognizes the need for engaging the private sector in developing adaptation options by “improving the link between climate change science and commercial opportunities.”104 Practices from around the world, including India, have shown that public-private partnerships (PPPs) have the potential to support the adaptation process. The challenge of taking stock of best practices and replicating them to other areas and on a larger scale can be tackled through coordination between national, international and civil society organizations. This challenge is further complicated by India’s decentralized governance system, which makes the process to harmonize policies more difficult.

97 For example, local communities have improved food storage practices for bridging drought periods, farmers have improved the efficiency of irrigation systems, or some have decided to find alternative livelihoods in non-agricultural sectors by moving to urban habitats. 98 World Bank (2011). Data and Statistics: India at a Glance, 2011 [online]. Available at: http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/ind_aag.pdf . 99 UNESCO (2011). UIS Statistics in Brief: India 2011 [online]. Available at: http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=124&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=3560&BR_Region=40535. 100 Ibid. 101 Ibid. 102 Ibid. 103 IFC is the private sector arm of the World Bank Group. 104 Asian Tiger Capital Partners (2010). A Strategy to Engage the Private Sector in Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh (Prepared for the International Finance Corporation) [online]. Available at: http://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/sites/climateinvestmentfunds.org/files/IFC_pres_CC_PS_V8_Sep12010-_IFC_%20sk.pdf (p. 35).

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c. Regional Cooperation The South Asia region is known to be one of the least integrated areas in the world.105 There is a substantial lack of cooperation bilaterally and regionally on almost all political and economic issues and throughout all sectors of society. This is due in large part to the ethnic and religious conflicts that have plagued the region since the partitioning of India in 1947. Although several international treaties exist to regulate the sharing of the main rivers for instance, recurrent tensions have characterized the relationship between India and its neighboring countries for decades and are likely to intensify with the impacts of climate change. India and Bangladesh. The Indo-Bangladesh Joint River Commission (JRC) was initiated in 1972, providing a structure through which the two countries could collaborate on issues involving common river systems. In 1996, the sharing of Ganges waters was added to the Commission’s responsibilities, one of the goals being to help the exchange of flood data. The recent construction of a water barrage by India is nonetheless causing tensions between the two countries, as Bangladesh is now experiencing reduced upstream water availability leading to a dramatic decrease in surface and groundwater quality – including salinization – damaged fisheries, and the consequent damages to agriculture and public health.106 India and Nepal. Despite the numerous initiatives existing around the management of the Ganges River, bilateral sharing of its water has not been easy. The main piece of international legislation is the Mahakali Treaty, signed in 1996, resulting in the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project, the aim of which is to improve power generation, irrigation resources, and flood management. Tensions linked to India’s overuse of water – to satisfy its growing hydropower energy demand – and to frequent flooding could be further worsened by climate change.107 India and Pakistan. The Indus Water Treaty (1960) established the Permanent Indus Commission, the task of which is to represent the respective governments in all issues related to water sharing and management, information exchange, and hydro-power projects. Despite the long life of this treaty, the difficult relations between India and Pakistan made the joint management of the Indus extremely problematic, with recurrent tensions related to dam construction and water sharing. Multilateral Regional Cooperation. The joint management of the Himalayan basin has been one of the focuses of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In 2008, the ADB put in place a regional project to improve water management and facilitate investments.108 It is also very active with climate change adaptation projects in Bangladesh109 and Nepal.110 111 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations

105 The World Bank (2007). South Asia Growth and Regional Integration. Washington, DC: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. Available at: http://web.worldbank.org. 106 Wolf, A.T. (1998) Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways. Water Policy, pp. 251-265. 107 Srabani R. (2010) Climate Change and Water Sharing in South Asia: Conflict or Cooperation? The Asia Foundation.org [online]. Available at http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2010/12/01/climate-change-and-water-sharing-in-south-asia-conflict-or-cooperation/ 108 ADB (2011). Managing Water in Asia's River Basins: Charting Progress and Facilitating Investment [online]. Available at: http://www.adb.org/Climate-Change/managing-water-in-asias-river-basins.asp. 109 Ibid. 110 Ibid. 111 Ibid.

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(ASEAN) is working at the regional level as well, to improve management of water resources, integrate river basin management, improve governance and move towards affordable water services.112 The situation at the regional level is concerning because the most severe climate change impacts go beyond national boundaries. Developing solutions to flood control, water resource management, and irrigation require coordination and cooperation between upper and lower river basin countries.113 Difficulties in Regional Water Management. Although bilateral structures exist, tensions linked to water sharing remain between India and its neighbors. For instance, while the Indus Treaty did survive two wars, both India and Pakistan have expressed their disagreements over how the waters in the basin were divided initially.114 Pakistan has voiced concerns about India’s potential to disrupt flows into Pakistan by damming the upper reaches of the Indus,115 as well as about the construction of a large hydroelectricity project on the Indian side of Kashmir. India argues that the latter is vital to the Himalayan region’s economic development, but Pakistan is concerned that the project will reduce water flow to the Punjab province, the heart of its agricultural sector and the country’s economic lifeline.116 These disagreements over water resources and management are echoed at the societal level in the region, and some militant groups in Pakistan are now focusing their activism around the water issue in an effort to motivate the population and recruit new militants to fight.117 Similar tensions exist between India and Nepal and Bangladesh.118 Taking into account the expected climate change impacts on the availability of freshwater resources for the region, an efficient, mutually beneficial and fair water management of the three main Himalayan rivers – the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra – will be crucial, and it will need to be conducted at a regional scale, thus making regional cooperation indispensable. Insufficient Data and Information Sharing. Data collection and analysis is restricted to a great extent because of the lack of regional cooperation. ICIMOD noted that one important need is “long-term longitudinal and latitudinal transect data that would allow conclusions to be drawn for sub-regions, water basins, or specific systems.”119 Having a greater knowledge of existing data and enabling information sharing channels, may give the different countries a more accurate diagnosis of the overall regional situation. This would enable each nation to better identify their own priorities and needs relative to the ones of the other intervening countries. A scenario where country's authorities have more information on the regional situation can allow for more effective negotiations. However, this level of coordination has not yet been achieved, mainly because it requires long term cooperation.120 Need to Control Regional Migration Movements. The IAP previously mentioned has identified cross-border migration, from Bangladesh to India in particular, as one of the most important expected climate change impacts for regional stability. Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world with 1,246 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2009.121 Because of this, migration to adapt to climate change events may very well be regional rather than internal. In addition to its population density, the country's

112 ASEAN (2011). Strategic Plan of Action on the Environment [online]. Available at http://environment.asean.org/index.php?page=overview:poa 113 South Asia Region Sustainable Development Department, 2009. 114 Roy, Robie I. Samanta. India-Bangladesh Water Dispute. November 1997. 20 February 2011. [online] Available at: http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/indobang.htm. 115 Ibid. 116 Polgreen, L, Tavernise S. (2010) Water Dispute Increases India-Pakistan Tension. The New York Times 20 July 2010 [online]. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/21/world/asia/21kashmir.html. 117 Ibid. 118 These tensions are described in the previous Impact Assessment Paper. 119 Malone, 2010. 120 Ibid 121 World Bank (2011). Development Indicators Database 2011 [online]. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

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low elevation, inadequate infrastructure and economic dependence on natural resources augment the population's vulnerability.122 Thus, geographical, economic and demographic characteristics increase the likelihood of cross-border migration to India as a self-preservation strategy. However, the lack of bi-lateral or regional-wide policies to balance regional population movement allows for the possibility of illegal settlements and illegal livelihood activities. In a 2001 census, it was found that there are over 5 million Bangladeshi immigrants in India, 2 million of which are estimated to be undocumented migrants.123 With the expected increase of large-scale migration across the region due to climate change, implementing regional-wide policies to deal with regional migration will be critical.

122 Architesh Panda (2009). Climate Induced Migration from Bangladesh to India: Issues and Challenges. (unpublished document) 123 South Asia Research Society (1991). Population Explosion in West Benegal: A Survey. Calcutta: South Asia Research Society.

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SECTION III. RECOMMENDATIONS TO UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, AND DEPARTMENT OF STATE

I. CURRENT USAID, DOD AND DOS CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVITIES

U.S Agency for International Development (USAID).

USAID’s mission states: “Working with individuals, governments, and other organizations, USAID supports sustainable development: economic and social growth that does not exhaust local resources; that does not damage the economic, cultural, or natural environment; that permanently increases the cohesion and productive capacity of the society; and that builds local institutions that involve and empower the citizenry.”124

Two recently launched partnerships illustrate current U.S. federal government initiatives on climate change and food security pertinent to the Himalayan Basin: (1) The Partnership Agreement for the Sustainable Forests and Climate Adaptation Project, the objective of which is to improve adaptive capacity in the field of water and agriculture, amongst others, in collaboration with the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forestry; and (2) the Partnership Agreement for the Agriculture and Food Security Program, in the framework of the Indo-U.S. Agricultural Dialogue - this partnership will focus on increased productivity through technology improvement, conservation agriculture and management of natural resources, human resource development in agriculture and institutional capacity building. USAID/India support for agriculture and food security under the Indo–U.S. Agricultural Dialogue will be provided through the Agriculture and Food Security Program (AFSP) which will include three projects: (1) The Food, Agriculture and Rural Markets Systems (FARMS) Project; (2) The Agricultural Education and Innovation Systems Project (AEISP); and (3) Support to the on-going Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) in India, led by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).125 Although, USAID is already quite active in South Asia, it could benefit from an informed analysis in order for their programs to be better directed and more effective in the Himalayan region.

Department of Defense (DoD). The DoD’s mission is to “provide the military forces needed to deter war and to protect the security of our country.”126 The February 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review acknowledged the negative impacts that climate change could have on already fragile populations and stated that “[climate change] may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.”127 It also acknowledged the role that the U.S. military and other militaries will likely have in responding to extreme weather events that cause humanitarian crises. In addition, the National Research Council has recognized South Asia as a potential “hot spot” that could “generate climate-related missions

124 USAID (2011) Home [online] Available at: http://www.usaid.gov/. 125 For more extensive information please visit: http://www.usaid.gov/locations/asia/countries/india/ 126 U.S. Department of Defense (2011). About the Department of Defense (DOD) [online] Available at: http://www.defense.gov/about/#mission&id=main_menu_Mission. 127 DoD (2010). Quadrenial Defense Review Report. Washington, DC 29 January 2010. Washington, DC: Department of Defense, pp. 85.

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for U.S. Naval forces or U.S. allies and partners.”128 These missions are likely to be centered upon maritime security, search and rescue, and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief operations.129 In May of 2009, the U.S. Navy created the Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) to address the impacts that climate change will have on their mission around the world. Two of their focus areas are improving prediction models and developing adaptation measure to reduce the risk that sea level rise will have on U.S. Naval facilities around the world.130 Other than these US Navy initiatives, there seems to be little if any action from the rest of the DoD to address how their missions would be affected by climate change. Department of State (DoS). The mission of the DoS is to “advance freedom for the benefit of the American people and the international community by helping to build and sustain a more democratic, secure, and prosperous world composed of well-governed states that respond to the needs of their people, reduce widespread poverty, and act responsibly within the international system.”131 The DoS has three main ventures with India that are directly related to climate change. In January of 2006, the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate was created to encourage the development and deployment of clean energy technologies. The partnership is between seven countries to include the U.S. and India.132 In March of 2009, President Obama announced the creation of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate. The purpose of the forum is to bring together seventeen nations including the U.S. and India to discuss the “exploration of concrete initiatives and joint ventures that increase the supply of clean energy while cutting greenhouse gases.”133 Finally, in February of 2011 the DoS announced the creation of a joint Task Force between the U.S. and India that will aim to develop options to reduce global Hydro fluorocarbon (HFC) use.134 These agreements highlight the DoS focus on climate change mitigation and new energy development, but a lack of progress on adaptation measures and policies tailored to South Asia still persists.

II. RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE US AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID)

a. Water and Food Management Promoting More Efficient Irrigation Management. A vital component of climate change adaptation policy is creating strategies that use water more efficiently, which requires the active participation of local communities in the building of irrigation systems. A method to achieve this is through the promotion and

128 Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces; National Research Council (2011). National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces. Washington, DC 2011. Washington DC: National Academies Press, pp. 4-7, 4-8. 129 Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces; National Research Council, pp. 4-9. 130 U.S. Navy (2011). Energy, Environment and Climate Change. [online] Available at: http://greenfleet.dodlive.mil 131 U.S. Department of State (2011). Bureau of Resource Management [online] Available at: http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/index.htm. 132 Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (2011). Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate. [online] Available at: http://www.asiapacificpartnership.org/english/default.aspx. 133 U.S. Department of State, 2006. Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate [online]. Available at: http://www.state.gov/g/oes/climate/mem/. 134 U.S. Department of State (2011). United States and India Convene Joint Task Force to Reduce Climate-Damaging Chemicals. [online] Available at: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/02/157033.htm.

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incorporation of Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM).135 One of the many objectives of PIM is to promote the economic use of water and preservation of irrigation systems by giving ownership of water resources and their infrastructure to invested community members. While the Ministry of Water Resources has been advocating for PIM since 1985, there has been a lack of clear policy decisions at the Government level to apply PIM.136 USAID already has substantial experience in supporting irrigation projects in India. USAID, in cooperation with the private sector, should work to support and promote the incorporation of PIM. The agency could increase its impact by focusing efforts on existing irrigation projects that need immediate maintenance. The rapid deterioration of existing infrastructure is causing poor performance, increased water logging and salinity, and lower water use efficiency. 137 Both of these actions could help promote the conservation and efficient use of precious water resources. Expanding Watershed Management Programs to the Himalayan Region. Strengthening and expanding integrated watershed management projects in the Himalayan states is an important method to help protect against damaging precipitation changes.138 Integrated watershed management is used to integrate natural resource management with local community participation so that water can be used in a sustainable fashion.139 The integrated watershed management program being developed at ICIMOD is focusing, among other things, on watershed strategies that can be used to address climate change adaptation in the Himalayas.140 These programs can help facilitate more efficient water practices and informational sharing that will help build resilience to climate change impacts such as increases in droughts and floods and decreasing water availability and quality. Strong watershed management is also important in preventing water related conflicts. While there has never been a “water war”141 per se, coordination and integrated watershed management are valuable in maintaining peaceful interstate and international water sharing agreements as water availability becomes increasingly stressed. USAID should support and expand local efforts that are working to use integrated watershed management in the Indian Himalayan states. Development of Early Warning Systems. Anticipatory systems such as Early Warning Systems provide an important measure in improving communication between farmers, researchers and policy makers and their continued development is critical to climate change adaptation policy. While the Indian Government and various agencies have been active in developing some EWS systems for food and agriculture, further support is needed. The Drought Research Unit, established by the India Meteorological Department, provides pre-harvest crop yield forecasting for major crops such as kharif (rice) and rabi (wheat)142. USAID’s support of EWS in food and agriculture will dramatically impact populations that are vulnerable to climate change because of their reliance on rainfed agriculture.

b. Natural Disasters Preparedness and Response Increase Local Resiliency to Extreme Events by Further Engaging Community Participation and Expanding Knowledge of Adaptation Strategies. This can be achieved through demonstrations of best practices and community capacity building. In this regard, reforestation, currently used in other regions of India, can be a positive post disaster livelihood strategy for the Himalayan region. In addition, 135 India’s Ministry of Water Resources (unknown year). Status of Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) in India Policy Initiative taken and Emerging Issues. Available at: http://mowr.gov.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File421.pdf. 136 Ibid. 137 Thankkar, Himanshu (1999). Assessment of Irrigation in India. India: World Commission on Dams. 138 Sharma et al., 1995 139 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (2011). Watershed Management [online]. Available at: http://www.icimod.org/v2/bull3/index.php/cms2/magic/view_old?page=70 140 Ibid. 141 Wolf A., 1998. 142 Ray, K.C. Sinha et. al. (2000). Role of Drought Early Warning Systems for Sustainable Agricultural Research in India. Pune: India Meteorological Department.

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implementation of farmer training in integrated farming systems, aquaculture, sedimentation clearance and floodwall construction can increase resilience in flood-prone areas of northern India. Moreover, documentation of local experience can be a valuable strategy for expanding local knowledge on adaptation schemes. Our research has shown that farmers' knowledge sharing has been carried out in southern India by the Gandihigram Rural Institute, which collected indigenous knowledge from 120 farmers in 12 villages.143 No evidence was found to indicate that this practice is being conducted in Northern India. USAID could facilitate the sharing of knowledge and best practices to facilitate community participation and knowledge dissemination. Let us note that the effectiveness of increasing adaptation strategies can only be assured if it takes place as the sum of its relevant components: appropriate use of science and technological resources, community involvement and adequate policy engagement.

c. Research, Data and Information Sharing Gathering and Sharing Data through the Development of Data Networks. USAID should focus their efforts on addressing the need for more data and for more precise climate and climate change impact projections. The agency has already identified the need to utilize its current partnerships with the Indian government to assist in the development of data gathering networks that will focus on meteorological and hydrological information.144 This course of action will provide enough coverage and input variables to build predictive models and assist in projecting real-time and future water use patterns for specific areas throughout the region.145 Supporting Local Capacity to Collect and Analyze Data. In addition, USAID should take advantage of their relationship with international non-governmental organizations and research institutes and assist them with their capacity, throughout the region, to collect, store, consolidate and analyze climate data.146 Finally, the agency should encourage and assist in the utilization of knowledge and expertise at the community level. This will contribute to the development of a clearer climate picture, facilitate the creation of adaptation policies that fit local communities and raise awareness to potential climate change vulnerabilities.147 148 However, these actions must be coordinated with first-rate government policies at all levels that are based on high quality climate change research.

d. Public Awareness

Supporting the Inclusion of Climate Change Education in National Curriculums. The available information on the expected impacts of climate change must be transferred to local communities through official education campaigns to increase local resiliency. Future generations must be informed and prepared for climate change impacts. Therefore the Government of India must be supported to include relevant information on this topic as part of the national school curriculum in a sustained manner. The materials must be written in a simple and understandable language so that less educated groups can comprehend this information. Tangible adaptation examples should provide communities with pertinent information on their level of vulnerability and ways to avert the risks. In the framework of its “Economic

143 T. Ranganathan and Anandkumar (unknown year). Documentation and Validation of Traditional Agricultural Practices. Faculty of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Gandhigram Rural Institute (Deemed University). Available online at: http://www.compasnet.org/afbeeldingen/Books/Traditional%20Knowledge%20India/ranganathan.pdf. 144 Malone, 2010, pp. 54. 145 Ibid. 146 Ibid. 147 South Asia Region Sustainable Development Department, 2009, pp. 148. 148 Malone, 2010, pp. 56.

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Growth: Strengthening Institutions” 149 program, USAID can provide technical expertise to the Government of India to include climate change education in its national curriculum, reflecting the local socio-economic and geographical context. Integrating Climate Change Awareness Modules to Adult Literacy Programs, Targeting Women Especially. Furthermore, USAID can also help in fighting the existing structural vulnerabilities that may hamper the process of creating and transferring knowledge on adaptation strategies. Programs supporting literacy among adults, coupled with information on climate change, will increase the resiliency of local populations to climate change impacts. More positive effects may be expected when such programs target poor and discriminated groups within the society. In this context, since women play an important role within family affairs, developing education programs specifically for women can have more effect not only on adaptation but also broader development. The USAID program in India, “Investing in People: Opportunity and Equity”150 should incorporate in its activities adult training modules specific to climate change awareness, with a focus on practical adaptation options. Promoting the Use of New Technologies to Disseminate Information and Knowledge. Utilizing existing technologies to disseminate information has proven to be successful in development projects. Many communities acquire information from FM radio broadcasting and cell phones as cheap communication devices. With more than 700 million subscribers,151 cell phones in India are widely used. These two technologies have been successfully used as early warning tools for natural disasters. For example, cell phones are used in Uganda to communicate climate information to farmers and in India to disseminate information on market prices for agricultural products.152 In this regard, supporting similar initiatives at the local level to spread climate change adaptation knowledge to local communities will increase their resilience. Such information should aim at developing short-term coping strategies as well as building anticipatory knowledge for long-term planning.

e. Public-Private Partnerships Promoting Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). Best practices have shown that PPPs can be effectively utilized for climate change risk reduction and adaptation. The areas of cooperation can be diverse, from providing insurance schemes to developing large infrastructural projects for water management and food production. India’s crop insurance program has proven successful in reducing the risk of climate variability.153 Now the institutions in India, supported by development agencies, have to find a way to replicate and scale up this program throughout India. The U.S. Government has a positive and extensive experience with public-private partnerships. In this context, USAID can provide technical and policy expertise to the Government of India in developing and scaling up successful cases of PPPs, in this instance oriented to mitigation of climate change risks. 149 USAID (2011). Asia: India [online]. Available at: http://www.usaid.gov/locations/asia/countries/india/. 150 Ibid. 151 Gokhale, Ketaki (2011). India Phone Call Prices Plummet on Threat to Licenses. Bloomberg Businessweek [online]. Available at: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-07/india-phone-call-prices-plummet-on-threat-to-licenses.html. 152 Douglas Fischer and The Daily Climate (2011). Can Cell Phones Speed Adaptation to Climate Change? Scientific American [online]. Available at: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=can-cell-phones-speed-adaptation-to-climate-change. 153 Asian Tiger Capital Partners, 2010.

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III. RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DoD)

a. Natural Disasters Preparedness and Response Sharing of Best Practices in Cross-Agency Cooperation for Natural Disaster Response. The DoD can offer sharing of best practices for increasing cooperation between agencies to deal with natural disasters. Replicating a "Dual Action Plan,"154 where national and local defense and security government authorities join efforts to deal with disaster management can improve current poor coordination among state and national levels in India. The current US experience of selecting, training and certifying National Guard Officers155 to act as dual-status commanders can be of great value for Indian government authorities to enhance their integrated natural disaster response in vulnerable areas in northern India.

b. Research, Technical Support, Data and Information Sharing Using Existing Forums to Share Knowledge and Information. The DoD should utilize already existing agreements like the Pacific Partnership, which is an annual meeting hosted by the Pacific Fleet, to further the dialogue between national governments and militaries, international NGO and other USG agencies about regional climate change adaptation strategies.156 This annual meeting is the appropriate time to discuss and prepare, through coordination and cooperation between all parties, for extreme weather events likely to cause humanitarian catastrophes in South Asia. The DoD should also encourage the Navy’s TFCC to participate with and contribute to the DoS regional cooperative agreements and share their knowledge and expertise on sea level rise with international institutions (e.g., World Bank Group, Asian Development Bank, etc.) and sovereign governments attempting to develop adaptation measures to address this impact. The Navy will likely benefit from these exchanges by improving their own understanding of sea level rise. This will in turn help them to develop better informed adaptation strategies through the region and world.

IV. RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE US DEPARTMENT OF STATE (DoS)

a. Food and Water Management Strengthen and Create Partnerships in the Region to Address Crop Storage Issues. In light of India’s serious crop storage crisis and projected climate change challenges to food and water, there is an opportunity for the DoS to contribute to solutions while strengthening current partnerships in the region and creating new partnerships with regional organizations. SAARC is a useful example of a partnership that has been working on food storage, agricultural research and sharing of technologies, among other areas.157 The United States has already built partnerships with India including the US-India Strategic Dialogue that works in areas such as climate change and agriculture. The Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs also works on facilitating cooperation on climate change. The US would be able to provide important technology transfers, water and food management

154 DOD (2011). Governors Bridge Gaps in Disaster Response. American Forces Press Service [online]. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=63128. 155 Ibid. 156 U.S. Navy (2011). COMPACFLT – Pacific Partnership 2011 [online]. Available at: http://www.cpf.navy.mil/PP11/. 157 SAARC (2009). Home [online]. Available at: http://www.saarc-sec.org/#.

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expertise, and conservation methods that would help improve climate change adaptation in India. An expansion of partnerships between the US and India would also surely increase collaboration between the two countries.

b. Research and Data Increase Participation in Regional Forums. To address the lack of regional cooperation and coordination, the DoS should take advantage of the already established forums and the joint Task Force between the U.S. and India. These cooperative efforts should however be expanded beyond mitigation strategies and clean energy development. Increased research on climate change, its impacts, and the sharing of this knowledge throughout the region should be a priority at these events.158 USAID has affirmed these policy recommendations, but the DoS seems much better suited to implement them given their mission. Annual conferences should be held and address all sectors to include: ecology, water resource management, health and agriculture.159 These ventures will allow top scientists and climate change experts from the region and world to share data, ideas and best practices on climate change generally and possible, innovative adaptation strategies.160 It will simultaneously “build cross-boundary and cross-sectoral scientific partnerships” to enhance the understanding and expertise of the entire region. This benefit fits perfectly with the DoS mission to promote diplomacy and international cooperation. Finally, these efforts will ensure there is a consistent and standard set of observations throughout the region. This will boost the region’s “capacity to perform comprehensive regional scale science.”161 Intra-India information Sharing. The DoS should encourage the Government of India to create a standard data sharing practice among the various ministries to ensure that all relevant information is available and in compatible formats, with data sets bearing consistent syntax and semantics, for all parties concerned with climate change. The United States Global Change Research Program (USGRCP) is a good model that facilitates this type of information sharing. They provide research and analysis to thirteen different U.S. agencies and policy-makers on the federal, state and local level.162 One critical aspect about this organization is that it is led by a team of principles from each of the thirteen agencies. This ensures all agencies are represented and coordinating with each other in all areas that have to do with climate change.

c. Regional Cooperation Promote mechanisms for regional collaboration. Enhance diplomatic objectives by strengthening the influence of regional Governance Institutions. Interviews with high-level authorities from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) can help identify countries’ common interests on food and water management strategies, such as methods to increase the water level of mutually shared rivers. Once these common interests are identified, they can be jointly enforced through future cooperative agreements, and carried out by regional governance organizations. Possible regional contracts should include detailed information on each country’s responsibilities and attributions as a way to avoid future international tensions. In addition, the agreement could include sanctions to be implemented if the agreements are violated by any of the countries. 158 Malone, 2010, pp. 54. 159 Ibid. 160 Ibid. 161 Ibid. 162 United States Global Change Research Program (2011). USGRCP Activities [online]. Available at: http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do.

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V. RECOMMENDATION FOR INTER-AGENCY COOPERATION USAID, DoD and DoS are already cooperating with each other within the context of the USGRCP. However, they should expand these efforts and coordinate their actions when planning for conflict scenarios and or natural disasters that would directly affect each of their missions. For example, given the size and resources available to the DoD, they should offer their technical and analytical abilities to USAID and DoS when attempting to minimize cross-border conflicts that arise from water resource competition. In addition, all agencies will likely be called upon to respond in the short term and long term to humanitarian crisis’s caused by extreme weather events.163 This was certainly the case in the summer of 2010 when over 600 service members were deployed to the area to assist in the delivery of over twenty million pounds of aid and helped rescue thousands of people in danger from the floods.164 165 Although these organizations do have a large amount of resources, they are not unlimited. Coordinating their actions will likely save millions of dollars and result in much more effective and enduring impact on the areas they wish to assist and develop.166 Moreover, the three agencies should endeavor to collaborate with the public and private arms of the World Bank Group (IBRD/IDA and IFC), which have formidable climate change programs, with respect to many of the recommendation areas, in order to gain synergies and promote initiatives of common interest amongst the agencies and with the Government of India.

163 U.S. Agency for International Aid (2010). Disaster Assistance: Pakistan Flooding [online]. Available at: http://www.usaid.gov/pakistanflooding/. 164 U.S. Department of Defense (2010). Military Reaches Pakistan Flood Relief Milestone [online]. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=61461. 165 U.S. Department of Defense (2010). Military Reaches Pakistan Flood Relief Milestone [online]. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=60931. 166 There is also the potential for these agencies to increase their coordination with international/ regional organizations, multi-lateral banks, and NGOs working in the field.

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CONCLUSION The recent financial crisis shows that the global economy is becoming more inter-dependent. As markets integrate more with one another, a disruption in the food production or supply chain now affects almost the entire globe. As the largest democracy in the world, India’s importance as a global economic and political player is increasing as its economy grows at a rapid pace. India plays a crucial role in providing security and stability in South Asia. As a US ally, India’s security is of vital importance for the stability of the emerging multi-polar system. Climate change is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the region of the Himalayan sub-basin in India. The adaptive capacity is further strained by the existing social vulnerabilities, including poverty, illiteracy, and marginalization. Furthermore, the growing demographic pressure, coupled with climate change impacts, is expected to further deplete the existing natural resources on which most of the poor communities depend for their livelihood. At the national and regional level, the natural resource scarcity is likely to intensify existing tensions and entice new conflicts. India’s climate change adaptive capacity still needs to be strengthened given the vast challenges resulting from climate change and natural resource depletion. The absence of an effective water management framework further complicates matters. Even though the current system is considered to have multiple layers of governance, water is ultimately a state competency. The decentralized system of management and the absence of rule of law for water rights further strains limited sources of water. Climate change adaptation requires effective policies for water, food, and natural disaster management, as well as consistent and timely research data and public awareness on climate change risks and available adaptation measures. The US Government, through diplomacy, defense and development, is equipped with the needed expertise and material resources to support the Indian government in its efforts to reduce the risks resulting from climate change. This support will contribute to the security and stability of South Asia in general and India specifically.

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