BOOK CONTENTS - €¦ · 1.1 Climate Policy Modeling 1.2 Integrated Modeling - Linking Science with Policy 1.3 The AIM Paradigm 1.4 AIM Modeling Approach 1.5 AIM Structure 1.6 AIM

BOOK CONTENTS

NIES, TsukubaMarch 13, 2004

Book Chapters

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Indian Scenarios and the AIM/ENDUSE Database

Chapter 3. AIM/ENDUSE Model Application

Chapter 4. AIM/Local Model Application

Chapter 5. AIM/Material Model Application

Chapter 6. AIM/Trend Model Applications for South Asia

Chapter 7. AIM Database and Emissions Inventories

Chapter 8. Conclusions: Policy Insights, AIM Cooperation and Road Ahead


1.1 Climate Policy Modeling

1.2 Integrated Modeling - Linking Science with Policy

1.3 The AIM Paradigm

1.4 AIM Modeling Approach

1.5 AIM Structure

1.6 AIM Scope

1.7 Overview of AIM Applications for India

1.8 AIM Inputs in National and International Assessments


Classification of energy-environment models

Technology AssessmentMacro-Optimization

Bottom-Up

Single-Country Global

Partial/GeneralEquilibrium

Top-Down

Energy Environment Models

Energy System Optimization Sector Optimization

Local

GISAccounting system

Emissions Inventory

Integrated


AIM family of models

199520052015

20252032

Cam

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4

6

8

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Year

199520052015

20252032

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Year

Tra

nspo

rtA

gric

ultu

re Indu

stry

Com

mer

ce

Rur

al

Urban

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Ave

rage

cos

t for

CO

2 re

duct

ion,

yua

n/t-C

Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

AIM/Emission

AIM/Database

GDP loss due to CO2 andsolid waste constraintswithout countermeas ures

Mitigation fromenviron mental in vestment

Mitigation fromtechnological impro vement

Mitigation from tax ation policyMitigation fro m green consu mp tion

GDP los s after mitigation

GDP los s from reference case(Trillion yen at 19 95 p rices)

1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

2010

2007

Year

Mitiga tion of GDP loss

WithoutCounterMeasures

Global CO2 emissions and reduction for stabilizat ion

Recycling Society

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

0

Fossil Intensive Society

550 ppm750 ppm

2000 2050 21002000 2050 2100 2000 2050 21002000 2050 2100

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

0

Gt-C

GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA

-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

Japan USA EU FSU

GDP

cha

nge (

%)

Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

2 2030

Mt-CO2

5102040

<3

>21

CO2

CO2 emission per capita(t-C/capita)

AIM/Country

AIM/GlobalAIM/CGE-LinkageAIM/Ecosystem

AIM/LocalInventory activity

CO2 emission in 2030

GDP loss from reference case(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

AIM family

GDP change by the Kyoto with USA and without USA

AIM/ClimateAtmospheric modelUD Ocean modelRadiative forcing modelGCM,RegCM interface

AIM/CGE (Energy)

AIM/Impact AIM/Land AIM/Water AIM/Agriculture AIM/Vegetation AIM/Health etc.

AIM/Material

AIM/Emission-LinkageAIM/Bottom-upAIM/Energy-EconomicsAIM/Land-Equilibrium

AIM/Enduse

-500 0 +500 ( kg/ha)

AIM/Trend Change in potential productivity of rice

AIM/Air


AIM Cooperation in Asia-Pacific region

NIESNIESKEIKEI

SNUSNUERIERI

IIMIIMKyoto Univ.Kyoto Univ.

IGSNRRIGSNRR

AITAIT

UPMUPM

JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)KOREASeoul National University (SNU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAUniversity Putra Malaysia (UPM)


Component models in AIM applied to India Area of application Brief description Location in this book AIM/Enduse Analysis of GHG

emissions mitigation and local air pollution control

A bottom-up technology selection model within a country’s energy, environment and economic system

Chapter 2 and Chapter 3

AIM/Local Estimating and analyzing future emissions from LPS and area sources

Bottom-up linear programming model, which selects a combination of technologies with least cost while satisfying demand and supply constraints.

Chapter 4

AIM/Material Estimates economic and environmental effects of environmental investment, mainly focusing on solid waste management.

A top-down macro economic model based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework.

Chapter 5

AIM/Trend Estimation of future economic, energy, and environmental trends

An econometric model which calculates relationships between each parameter by regression method and extrapolates these relationships for future projections.

Chapter 6

AIM/Database Supporting AIM models Contains various types of datasets including statistics, outputs by AIM, outputs by other modelers, and estimates by international organizations and governments

Chapter 7


2.1 AIM/Enduse model structure

2.2 Indian scenarios

2.3 Data development

2.4 Demand projections

2.5 Sectoral process representation in AIM

2.6 Global and Indian energy intensity and emission trends


Matrix of Indian Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

China

IA2

Pre-reform(Mixed Economy Model)

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self Reliance Model

Cen

tral

izat

ion

Dec

e ntr

ali z

atio

n

Market integration

Gov

erna

nce

Integrated


GDP and Population Projection for Indian Scenarios

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030

GD

P (I

ndex

200

0 =

100)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

IA1

IA2

IB1

IB2

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

2001 2011 2021 2031Po

pula

tion

(mill

ions

)IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

IA1

IA2

IB1

IB2


Sectoral GVA in Reference Scenario (IA2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

70

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

Shar

e of

GD

P (%

)

Industry Commercial Transport Agriculture

Industry

Commercial

Transport

Agriculture


Energy intensity of various industries (PJ/million tons) in (IA2) Scenario

Industry 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Steel 55.4 48.3 42.9 37.6 32.3 29.9 27.9 26.1Cement 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7Fertilizers 46.1 36.2 37.6 34.7 34.1 30.8 29.9 28.8Brick 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.10 2.0Pulp and paper 20.4 19.6 19.1 18.7 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.8Textiles 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0Sugar 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7Chlor alkali 14.1 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.7Aluminium 114.4 113.9 109.7 107.7 104.9 102.0 99.3 96.5


Future intensity trends in India (IA2 Scenario)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030

Inde

xed

(200

0 =

100)

GDP/ Capita Energy/ GDP Carbon/ Energy Carbon/ Capita


3.1 Aggregate national results

3.2 Analysis for select End-use sectors

3.3 Non-CO2 GHG analysis

3.4 Interaction between models

3.5 Conclusions


Fuel wise Primary Energy Consumption under IA2 scenario

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Peta

Jou

les

Coal Gas Diesel Kerosene Fuel Oil Gasoline ATF Biomass


Fuel-wise CO2 Emissions under IA2 scenario

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal Gas HSD Kerosene Fuel Oil Gasoline ATF Electricity

Mt-C

O2


Electricity Generation Mix under IA2 scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bill

ion

KW

h

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Renewable


Future methane and N2O emissions under alternate scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030

CH 4

(Mill

ion

tons

)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030

CH 4

(Mill

ion

tons

)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2000 2010 2020 2030

N2O

(Mill

ion

tons

)IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2000 2010 2020 2030

N2O

(Mill

ion

tons

)IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2


4.1 Introduction

4.2 Model Structure

4.3 AIM/Local Database System

4.4 Data Development for the AIM/Local model in India

4.5 Indian Emissions Analysis

4.6 CO2 Emission Mitigation and Co-benefits

4.7 Urban Applications

4.8 Interaction with other models (AIM/End use and AIM/Air Model)

4.9 Policy insights and conclusions


Growth in CO2 emissions and Per capita CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

2000 2010 2020 2030

CO

2em

issi

ons (

Mt-

CO

2)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2010 2020 2030Per

capi

ta C

O2

emis

sion

s (T

-CO

2)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2


Regional Spread of Large Point Sources

Power

Steel

Cement

Fertilizer

Paper

Sugar

Caustic soda

Others

A

BC

D

E

F Southern regionF

Central India coal mineE

East India coal mineD

Northeast India coal mineC

DelhiB

Golden corridorA

Regional Details

LPS Coverage

Sector Sub-sectors LPS covered2000 2010 2020 2030

Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 11 17 23 29Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5Total 383 458 524 588


Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario

05

1015

30

40

20

Million Tons

< 33 - 66 - 99 - 1212 - 1515 - 1818 - 21> 21

Million Tons

Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources

2000 2030


Regional distribution of CO2 emissions for Different Scenarios (2030)

IA1 IB1 IB2

05

1015

30

40

20

Million Tons05

1015

30

40

20

Million Tons< 33 - 66 - 99 - 1212 - 1515 - 1818 - 21> 21

Million Tons< 33 - 66 - 99 - 1212 - 1515 - 1818 - 21> 21

Million Tons



2000 2030

< 0.010.03

0.07

0.15

< 0.20

0.11

Million Tons< 0.01

0.03

0.07

0.15

> 0.20

0.11

Million Tons

< 0.010.01-0.017

0.017-0.0260.026-0.0350.035-0.0440.044-0.0530.053-0.060

> 0.060

Million Tons


Regional distribution of SO2 emissions for IA2 Scenario



2000 2030

Thousand Ton CH4

Regional distribution of CH4 emissions for IA2 Scenario


Ahmedabad District Location and Talukas


Dhandhuka

Dholka

Sanand

Ahmedabad City

Daskroi

Dehgam

Viramgam

Ahmedabad Municipal Area

71.6o E21.9o N

23.4o N

73.0o E

Dhandhuka

Dholka

Sanand

Ahmedabad City

Daskroi

Dehgam

Viramgam


71.6o E21.9o N

23.4o N

73.0o E

Dhandhuka

Dholka

Sanand

Ahmedabad City

Daskroi

Dehgam

Viramgam


71.6o E21.9o N

23.4o N

73.0o E

SO2 Thousand Ton SO2 Thousand Ton


Regional distribution of SO2 emissions in Ahmedabad District for Reference (IA2) scenario

2000 2030



5.1 Model Structure

5.2 Data Development

5.3 Applications for India

5.4 Results

5.5 Conclusions

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2000 2010 2020 2030

IA1

IA2IB1IB2


Solid Waste Generation for Indian Emission Scenarios (Index Year 2000 = 1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reference Constraint Recycling Innovation

MtC

Cumulative CO2 emissions from India (2000-2030)


Bill

ion

$ (C

onst

ant 2

000)

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Constraint Recycling Innovation


Change in GDP over Reference (IA2) Scenario


6.1 Introduction

6.2 Structure of the AIM/Trend model

6.3 AIM/Trend Model Applications

6.4 Policy Implications

6.5 Conclusion

Future demographic, economic, energy and environment trends for India and several other South Asian countriesAim/Trend linked to bottom-up model to develop South Asian regional energy cooperation scenarios

South AsiaRegional

Model

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Sri Lanka

• Primary Energy Supply

• Emission trend

• Economic Indicators

South AsiaRegional

Model

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Sri Lanka

• Primary Energy Supply

• Emission trend

• Economic Indicators

Country AIM/Trend


Projections for South Asian Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

YearE

J

Coal Gas Oil Biomass Hydro & Other Renewables Nuclear

Total Primary energy supply for India

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

GD

P (1

995

Billi

on U

S$)

GDP trend for Bangladesh


Projections for South Asian Countries (Cont..)

Carbon emission trend for Nepal

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Mill

oin

Ton

nes

of C

O2

Electricity generation mix for Srilanka

0

20

40

60

80

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

PJ

Oil Hydro


Policy Implications and Conclusion

• Analysis indicates a definite trend of increasing energy importsamong countries in the region.

• Increasing dependence on external sources can be reduced through regional cooperation

• Supporting robust trade in energy has far-reaching social, economic, energy and environmental security benefits for the region.

• The trend model has emerged as a robust tool for individual country analysis and for analyzing regional scenarios.



7.1 Strategic data requirements

7.2 Data structure

7.3 Functional databases

7.4 Indian emissions inventory: A case study in data management

7.5 Conclusions


Outline of the AIM/Database

AIM/CommonDatabase

AIM/PrimaryDatabase

Statistics, etc.

AIM/Enduse

StrategyStakeholders

AIM/TrendAIM/CGE

Module of A

IM/Common DB

Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

omm

on D

B

Module of AIM/Common

DB

Module of A

IM/Emissi

on

Mod

ule

of A

IM/T

rend

Module of AIM/Common DB

Module of AIM/CGE

Interface Module of AIM/Common

DB, etc.

AIM/Material

AIM/Database

InputOutputInputOutput

Statistics etc.

InputOutput Statistics, etc.

InputOutput

Statistics, etc. Statistics, etc.

Statistics, etc.

Module of AIM/Common DB Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

omm

on D

B

Module of AIM/Impact

Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

limat

e

Module of A

IM/Common DB

Module of A

IM/Materi

al

Statistics etc.

AIM/Climate


AIM/Impact


AIM/CommonDatabase

AIM/PrimaryDatabase

Statistics, etc.

AIM/Enduse

StrategyStakeholders

AIM/TrendAIM/CGE

Module of A

IM/Common DB

Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

omm

on D

B

Module of AIM/Common

DB

Module of A

IM/Emissi

on

Mod

ule

of A

IM/T

rend

Module of AIM/Common DB

Module of AIM/CGE

Interface Module of AIM/Common

DB, etc.

AIM/Material

AIM/Database

InputOutputInputOutput

Statistics etc.

InputOutput Statistics, etc.Statistics, etc.

InputOutput

Statistics, etc.Statistics, etc. Statistics, etc.Statistics, etc.

Statistics, etc.Statistics, etc.

Module of AIM/Common DB Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

omm

on D

B

Module of AIM/Impact

Mod

ule

of A

IM/C

limat

e

Module of A

IM/Common DB

Module of A

IM/Materi

al

Statistics etc.

AIM/Climate


AIM/Impact



Sectoral Contribution of CO2 emissions

45%

35%

13%2%

Power Industry

Road Other transport

Other sectors

35%

10%55%

Steel

Cement

Other industries


46%

36%

8%6%3%1%

Power sector IndustryAgriculture RoadOthers Other transport

42%

27%

14%

10%7%

Other industries SteelFertilizer CementIndustry (non-energy SO2)

Sectoral Contribution of SO2 emissions


8.1 Indian assessments and policy insights

8.2 Contribution to modeling capacity building by AIM cooperation

8.3 Innovative applications and new model development

8.4 Road ahead


• What are the projected CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?

• What are the projected per capita CO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?

• What are the projected CO2 emission intensities under alternate scenarios for India?

• What are the projected non-CO2 GHG emissions under alternate scenarios for India?

• What are the projected SO2 emissions under alternate scenarios for India?

• What are linkages and disjoints between GHG and local emissions?

• What is the sectoral CO2 mitigation potential and flexibility of technological options in the short, medium and long-term?

• What other flexibilities are potentially possible for mitigation?

• What are the cost implications of carbon mitigation?

• What is the linkage between sustainable development and carbon mitigation?

• What is the linkage between local environmental concerns and global emissions?

• What are the implications of regional energy cooperation in South Asia?

• How does modeling help to answer some of the above questions?

Answering policy questions…


800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

1 2 3 4

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt-

CO

2 )

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB24.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

0 3000 6000 9000 12000

GDP per capita (PPP US$)

SO2

emis

sion

s (M

t)

IA1 IA2 IB1 IB2

2020

2030

20152010

Answering policy questions….


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Exa

Joul

e

Coal OilNatural Gas HydroRenewable NuclearBiomass

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Inde

x

Energy Carbon Electricity GDP SO2

Past TrendsFuture Projections

Managing SO2 Emissions: Case of LPS

0.0928Sugar

0.04333Paper

63.52282Total

631Fertilizer

585Cement

711Steel

4594Power Plants

Share of all-India SO2emissions (%) in

1995

NumberLPS

Need for a national policy as well as local-specific policies

Power

Industrial Processes

Others

Steel and Cement

Fossil Fuel Extraction

LPS spread in different urban centers

LPS in India


Emission Cap-and-Trade vis-à-vis Technology Policy

0

1

2

3

4

1995 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

SO2

emis

sion

s (M

T)

SO2 Emissions Cap Trajectory

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2005 2015 2030

YearMar

gina

l Cos

ts (R

s/to

n of

SO

2)

Marginal costs for SO2 mitigation

Annual average cost savings over a 30 year period is Rs. 3600 million ($80 million)

45% cost- savings over 30 years in the emissions cap and trade instrument


Road Ahead

— Data Development

— Close interface with policymakers

— Capacity building

— Focused Modeling

— Evolving Modeling Paradigms

— Modeling Protocols

— Regional and Global Networking


APPRECIATION

Our thanks to

AIM Team members from all countries

NIES

Japanese Policymakers

Indian Policymakers

and

Morita-san’s family

Documents

BOOK CONTENTS - €¦ · 1.1 Climate Policy Modeling 1.2 Integrated Modeling - Linking Science with Policy 1.3 The AIM Paradigm 1.4 AIM Modeling Approach 1.5 AIM Structure 1.6 AIM