Development of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Yasuaki Hijioka（hijioka@nies.go.jp）

AIM International Workshop 2008 @ Ohyama Hall, NIES

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

1.1. Background and ObjectivesBackground and Objectives

2.2. Outline of AIM/Outline of AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

3.3. Interfaces of AIM/Interfaces of AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

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BackgroundBackground

Global warming impacts are already appearing in various parts of the world, and as warming increases serious impacts are predicted in many fields

Necessary for urgent GHG reductionsPost-Kyoto regimeStabilization of GHG concentration

What stabilization targets should we be aiming for?

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ObjectivesObjectives

Development of integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact[Policy], for comprehensive analysis and assessment of GHG stabilization concentration targets and emission pathways for realizing them, as well as impacts and risks under such targets

Assist policymakers’decision in action programs to arrest global warming

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Integrated Assessment ModelIntegrated Assessment Model --AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]--

AIM/Impact[Policy] has two major partsEmissions projection part

investigate GHG emission reduction strategies for achievement of climate stabilization goals

Impact projection partsimulate the impact of the global warming anticipated under the global warming control targetsintegrate impacts studies of climate change on several sectors

Analysis of climate change impacts on dangerous level, economical damage and adaptation strategy comprehensively

Structure of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Economic-energy model for global multi-GHG emission constraint

（Dynamic optimization model, single region, economic and simplified

climate model）

Burden sharing scheme model

GHG emission permit path at country level

Global CGE model for global multi-GHG emission constraint

（Multi region/sector）

Flexibility scheme for GHG emission

constraint

Impact assessment and adaptation model for global climate change

（Multi region/sector, database type model）

Global GHG emission permit path

Climate change impact threshold

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Features of Energy-Economic Model

Analyze global GHG emission paths under different socio-economic scenarios and various constrains

GHG emission or concentration constraintsTemperature constraintsTemperature change speed constraintsSea level constraints.

Model DetailsDynamic Optimization modelFour modules: economic/energy module, GHG emissions module, climate module, and sea level rise moduleSingle regionGreenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, CFC, PFC, SF6, BC, OC, O3Time periods: decades from 1990 through 2300

Example of global GHG emissions under several constrains

0.0

1.0

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al m

ean

tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

(199

0=0.

6℃)

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CO2 e

quiv

alen

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n (p

pm)

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Kyot

o ga

s em

issio

n (G

tCeq

/yr)

0. 0

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1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

2.0℃ 2.4℃ 2.8℃3.2℃ 4.0℃ 4.9℃6.1℃

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Impact assessment and adaptation model

Database type model (pre-simulated results of process type models)

Using existing detailed sector-level impact assessment models, the impact on each lattice point is estimated by sensitivity analysis using the two climate factors of temperature and precipitation

Spatially averaged country-level and sector-level impact functions are to be prepared.

This database can also contain knowledge obtained by other impact studies.

Precipitation -50% Precipitation 0%

Temperature +0ºC

Change of potential crop productivity(rice) 0 2 3 4 5 6 (t/h

Precipitation 100%

Temperature +3ºC

Temperature +6ºC

Temperature +9ºC

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

11．．Front PageFront Page

① Selection of region↓

② Selection of stabilization scenario

↓③ Development of climate scenario

↓④ Assessment of sectoral impacts

↓⑤ Result display

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

22．．Selection of stabilization scenarioSelection of stabilization scenario

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

33．．Development of climate scenario ①①

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

33．．Development of climate scenario ②

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

４．４．Assessment of sectoral impactsAssessment of sectoral impacts

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AIM/AIM/Impact[PolicyImpact[Policy]]

４．４．Example of impact assessment (Heat Stress)Example of impact assessment (Heat Stress)

Conclusion

AIM/Impact[Policy] has been developed and improved

Energy-economic model has been applied to develop long term stabilization scenarioGlobal impact response functions

Potential crop productivity (Rice, Wheat, Maize)Water stress index (Falkenmark, Withdrawal and availability

ratio)Excess mortality due to Heat Stress

Japanese impact response functionsFlood damage, Land slide disaster, Excess mortality due to Heat Stress, Probability distribution of Buna (Fagus, crenata Blume), Rice yield, Rice head day,