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The Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices -RIOCC-perhaps is one initiative of the largest political hit in the region. Thisnetwork has been created and proposed by Spain, in the meeting of therepresentatives of the climate change workshops which has happened inCartagena de Indias - Colombia, in September 2004 and latelyformalized in COP10 of UNFCCC, which took place in Buenos Aires -Argentina, in December 2004.
The climate change offices of the 21 countries of the Ibero-AmericanNation Communities belong to RIOCC: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Equator, El Salvador, Spain,Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,Portugal, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela. This networkworks under custody of the Ibero-American Ministers of theEnvironment, which present the most relevant conclusions to the Ibero-American Meeting.
E d i t o r i a l
Its work program it is focused in different topics related to ClimateChange. One of the main areas is the adaptation to climate change andintends to consolidate as a sample of the identity through the Ibero-American Program of Evaluation Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptationto Climate Change, a program that has been supported in December2005, during the COP11 celebrated in Montreal, by the Ibero-AmericanMinisters of the Environment.
Through October 4th, 5th and 6th 2006, it has been celebrated in SantaCruz de la Sierra, Bolivia, the Ibero-American Third Annual Meeting ofthe Climate Change Offices Follow some conclusions of the meeting:
On this third Newsletter of the project, we describe the Ibero-AmericanClimate Change Offices Network -RIOCC- and some of the conclusionsof the III Meeting, realized few days ago in Bolivia. Doctor LuizGuilherme Ferreira Guilhon, from the Hydrology Management of theBrazilian Electric System National Operator ONS-, it manifests theimportance of the use of climate change scenarios in the long termenergetic planning. They also discuss some preliminary results from thepossible climate change effects of the South America biomesdistribution, using IPCC/AR4 scenarios and the CPTEC-PVM potentialvegetation model. Finally, is made a presentation of the educativecampaign for children that GOF-UK-CPTEC project will realize in theclimate change topic and the openning of the brochure called “LitllePlanet and his Troop”.
Related to the presented work by CPTEC/INPE, there were two parts: Asummary of the regionalized climate change scenarios by ETA Modeland generated through PROBIO and GOF-UK-CPTEC projects. In thePROBIO project, two other models were used. The three modelspresented differences in some regions and agreements in others. Annualand seasonal average values of precipitation anomalies and airtemperature have been presented. All the models agree in the warmingsurface. However, the fields of precipitation anomaly projected by themodels have a disagreement. The second part of the presentation was apurpose of practical training using the ETA Model to realize long runprojections of the climate change scenarios, including programs andmethodologies of studies of vulnerability and statistics of extremevalues. This training will be offered for the countries that are participants
Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices -RIOCC-
The project has a purpose of building a net ofscientifics and police makers in the way of having permanentcooperation among the results of the scientific researches and thedecision making process. For the next year, the project is planningdifferent activities, which is included a meeting for the diffusion of theinformation about the elaborated climate change scenarios. We hope tohave the participation of the whole scientific community, communitiesof usuaries and all the ones who are interested on the appliance of themodels and strategies using climate change scenarios.
GOF-UK-CPTEC
The path which links the scientific knowledge to the police makings, itsimplementation and divulgation, it is not very weel consolidate in Latin-America. It is important to look for and to implement mechanisms ofdivulgation, so the society can be aware of what climate change is andhow is affecting the natural environment and the daily life.
José A. Marengo, Scientific Editor and General CoordinatorDiana Raigoza, Technical Editor and Researcher
Diana Raigoza and Sin Chan ChouProject GOF-UK-CPTEC
Division of Modeling and DevelopmentCentro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos CPTEC, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brasil
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- The reiteration of the climate change is an important matter forLatin-American region and a thread for the environment, thesustainable development and the vulnerable populations.
- A necessity to keep moving forward in politics and climate changeprograms and promotion of clean energies in regional and nationalcircuits.
- The importance of helping the RIOCC countries for the access to theavailable founds to support the projects of adaptation to climatechange.
- They recognize the magnitude of the emissions caused bydeforestation in the developed countries and they are aware of thenecessity of moving forward in the construction of tools that reducethe deforestation level, allowing the developing countries toparticipate in the climate change mitigation process.
- They highlight the activities that happen in matter of climatescenarios in the Region, and agree as a first step to develop in the markof PIACC (Ibero-American Program of Climate Change Adaptation)the purpose of Brazil related to the “training for the use of the regionalmodel Eta/CPTEC”. Spain and Brazil will collaborate fordetermining the most suitable option to support this activity.
- They agree with the elaboration of divulgation brochures of RIOCCand PIACC of the topics discussed in the meeting and highlight theimportance of strengthen the communication strategy RIOCC andPIACC, as a key element for the success of RIOCC.
Global Opportunities Fund – Climate Change and Energy Programme
Newsletter of the projectUsing Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in
Brazil and South America (GOF-UK-CPTEC)
The Electric Sector has a power planning with differenttemporal horizons and discretization breaks. The EnergyNational Plan is a long term planning instrument, onwhich are stablish growth levels for the offers e demandsof electric energy, for the subsystems that are part of theNational Interlinked System.
Moreover, it is also important to emphasize that the study of the futurescenarios of electrical energy demand should not consider only theeconomic, political and technological of each class of consume, howevercould also consider the climate variability from the models that considerregional climate changes, propitiating elevations or reductions of thetemperature in such regions that could somewhat intervene on thedemand projections.
Luiz Guilherme Ferreira GuilhonEmail: [email protected]
Gerência de Hidrologia. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico -ONS-, Brazil.
Climate Change Scenarios as Support in the Electric Sector
(*)“The electric energy market dynamic is a due, not only the gowth ofeconomy, as also the evolution of the structure of the national income anda number of many other factors, such as, population, domiciles, hugeindustrial projects, etc., some of them also linked,direct or indirectly, to the economy growth”.
climate conditions,
The future scenarios of energy offer, in that it is all abouthydroelectric generation, could consider results derivingfrom models that take regional climate changes, aimingthe study of the energy offer expansion possibilities fromwater origens associated to future generatedprecipitation/runoff scenarios from these tools. The resultof these analyses will probably be of most important forthe considerations of the potential use of Amazon, forNortheast and South regions, where once in a while thereis a reduction of the water availability, and also for theinstallation of new enterprises in Southern and Central Western regions.
(*) Decennial Plan 2006-2015.
Figure. Evolution of the concentration of the hidroeletric plants inBrazil (1950-2000). Source: Electric National Agency - ANEEL.Supervision of Studies and Hidrologica Information. 2001.
Climate Change Consequences on the Biomes in South America
1 Introduction.
The geographical distribution of the vegetation communities and theirrelationship with the climate has been examined with biogeographicalmodels or biome models. These models use as central paradigm thesupposition that climate has dominant control over the distribution of thevegetation. The biogeographical models can simulate the potentialvegetation based in some climate parameters as temperature andprecipitation. Due to the simplicity of these models and to the existenceof empirical global rules between the natural vegetation and the climate,these models are used in climate studies (Claussen e Esch, 1994; Nobreet al., 2004; Nobre et al., 2006). Oyama e Nobre (2004) have developed amodel of potential vegetation CPTEC-PVM which shows a good skill inreproducing the current natural vegetation distribution pattern in globalscale, and in regional scale, the South America biomes, where othermodels widely used as BIOME (Prentice et al., 1992) and BIOME3(Haxeltine e Prentice, 1996) show some deficiencies.
Luis Salazar , Carlos Nobre and Marcos D. Oyama1 1 2
Email: [email protected]
2
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, BrazilCentro Técnico Aeroespacial, Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço, Divisão de Ciências Atmosféricas,São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Field observations (Gash e Nobre, 1997) and numerical studies (p.e.Nobre et al., 1991), have shown that large scale deforestation inAmazonia could alter the regional climate. The effect might lead to asavannization of partions of the tropical forest domain. However, therehave been fewer studies on the impact of global climate change on theSouth America, particulary on its biomes such as Cox et al. (2000) andNobre et al. (2004).
2. Data and Methodology
This study uses standard output from nine Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereGCMs for the IPCC/AR4 (CNRM-CM3, INM-CM3.0, ECHO-G,ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, GISS-ER, IPSL-CM4.0 and UKMO-HadCM3), with typical model horizontalresolutions between 2° to 3°. These models simulate the climate in the
21 century according to the changes in climate forcing, includingincrease of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We have examined the biome
distribution in the 21 century under the emission scenarios A2 and B1,which represents possible pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions.
The potential vegetation model used is CPTEC-PVM (Oyama e Nobre,2004). Given a set of environmental variables derived fromclimatological values of monthly mean surface temperatura andprecipitation, namely growing degree-days, temperature of the coldestmonth and two moiture indexes (one to distinguish between wet and dryclimates and the other to represent the soil moisture seasonality)CPTEC-PVM outputs a biome belonging to the vegetation classificationof Dorman and Sellers (1989).
st
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Then, it will be addresses this question examinate, with a CPTEC-PVMmodel (Oyama e Nobre, 2004), how natural biomes could change inresponse to various scenarios of climate change prepared for theIntergovernmental Panel on climate change-Fourth Assessment report(IPCC/AR4).
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3. Results
Figures 1 and 2 show average precipitation and temperature anomaliesderived from the 9 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models, for the period2070-2099, with respect to the base period 1961-1990, on the scenarioA2. Analyses of these figures reveal larger differences among thedifferent models. For the rainfall, there are divergencies in the value andsign of the anomaly (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Climate change projections for 2070-2099 of rainfallanomalies (mm/day), for the 9 models and the A2 scenario (with respectto each model´s average rainfall for the base period of 1961-1990).
Figure 2. Climate Change Projections for 2070-2099 of surfacetemperature (C), for the 9 models and the A2 scenario (with respect toeach model´s average rainfall for the base period of 1961-1990).
While the models CNRM_CM3, IPSL_CM4, ECHO_G, GISS_ERshow a positive anomaly over Tropical South America, other modelspresent reduction (UKMO_HADCM3) or little alteration. The projectedtemperature warming for south america range from 2° to 4°C foremissions scenario B2 (Figure not show) and 2° to 6° for the emissionsscenario A2 (Figure 2). These differences among the models increasethe uncertainties to the changes in the hydrological cycle in regionalscales.
Figure 3. Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for2070-2099 for the scenarioA2, based on the climate scenarios of Figures1 and 2. Natural potential biomes (Down .Right).
Figure 4. Condition of the Forest fn the period 2070-2099 for more than75% of the models for scenario (a)A2 and (b) B1, comparing to the actualnatural potential vegetation.
Figure 5. Condition of the savanna for the period 2070-2099 for morethan 75% of the models for the scenario (a) A2 and (b) B1, comparing tothe actual natural potential vegetation.
The figure 3 shows the actual potential vegetation and the projectedbiome distribution for SouthAmerica for scenarioA2.
Still for the scenario B1, between 50 to 75% of the models indicate avaluable area of loss of the tropical forest that would be replaced bysavanna (Figure not shown). From this analisys of the scenario B1 for theforest, it can be concluded that there is also an area (East of Amazonia),where more than 75% of the models do not present permanence ordisappearing, what indicates that there is not a conclusive consense(>75%) of what would happen with the biomes on this region (Figures 4band 5b). Impact on extratropical SouthAmerica is somewhat smaller.
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Figures 4 and 5 show the grid points where more than 75% of the modelscoincide with a future condition (permanence, disappearing orappearing) of the forest and savanna, respectively (the analisys is donefor the “time-slice” of “2080” of the scenarios A2 and B1). For SouthAmerica tropical, the results indicate that for scenario A2, more than75% of the models present regions of reduction of the tropical forest(Figure 4a) that are replaced by savanna (Figure 5a).
Remains
Disappears
Appears
a b
a bRemains
Disappears
Appears
. Tropical Forest
. Temperate Forest
. Mixed Forest
. Boreal Forest
. Larch
. Savanna
. Grasslands
. Caatinga
. Semi-desert
. Tundra
. Desert
. Ice
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing theirdata for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis andIntercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data,the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) andtheir Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and ClimateSimulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and theIPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive atLawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office ofScience, U.S. Department of Energy.
Refererences
Claussen, M., and M. Esch, 1994: Biomes computed fromsimulated climatologies. , , 235-243.
Cox. P. M., R.A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S.A. Spall, and l. J. Totterdell,2000: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in acoupled climate model. , 184-187.
Dorman, J. L., and P.J. Sellers, 1989: A global climatology ofalbedo, roughness length and stomatal resistance for atmospheric generalcirculation models as represented by the Simple Biosphere model (SiB).
, , 833-855.Gash, J.H.C. and C.A. Nobre, 1997: Climatic effects of
Amazonian deforestation: some results from ABRACOS., (5): 823-830.
Haxeltine, A., and I.C. Prentice, 1996: BIOME3: An equilibriumterrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constrains, resourceavailability, and competition among plant functional types.
, v. , n.4, p.693-709.Marengo, J., 2004: Mudanças Climáticas Globais e Efeitos sobre a
Biodiversidade-Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alteraçõesclimáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do Século XXI: CREAS(Cenários REgionalizados de Clima para América do Sul). Encontro doscoordenadores dos subprojetos apoiados pelo PROBIO, Brasilia, DF, 27 a 29de Outubro.
Marengo, J.A., and T. Ambrizzi, 2006: Use of regional climatemodels in impacts assessments and adaptations studies from continental toregional and local scales. Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, Foz do Iguaçu, Brasil,Abril 24-28, INPE. p. 291 296.
Nobre, C.A., P.J. Sellers, and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazoniandeforestation and regional climate change. , , 10, 957-988.
Nobre, C.A., M.D. Oyama, G.S. Oliveira, J.A. Marengo, E. Salati,2004: Impacts of climate change scenarios for 2091-2100 on the biomes ofSouth America. First CLIVAR International Conference, Baltimore, USA,21-25 June.
Nobre, C.A., G.S Oliveira, and L. Salazar., 2006: Climate andLand use changes inAmazonia: Impacts on the hydrological cycle and biomedistribution. Em Water and the Environment. Pontifical Academy ofScience, Roma. No prelo.
Oyama, M. D., and C.A. Nobre, 2003: A new climate-vegetationequilibrium state for Tropical SouthAmérica. ,v. , n. 23, 2199. doi: 10.1029/2003GL018600.
Oyama, M.D. and C.A. Nobre, 2004. A simple potencialvegetation model for coupling with the Simple Biosphere Model (SIB).
, v. , n. 2, p. 203-216, 2004.Prentice, L. C., W. Cramer, S. P Harrison, R. Leemans, R. A.
Monserud. and A. M. Solomon, 1992: A global bio'me model based on plantphysiology and dominance, soil properties, and climate.
, 117-134.
Climate Dynamics
Nature,
Journal of Applied Meteorology
Bulletim of theAmerican Meteorological Society
GlobalBiogeochemical Cycles
Journal of Climate
Geophysical Research Letters
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia
Journal ofBiogeography,
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Conclusions
The global climate models from IPCC/AR4 and climate change regionalmodels point for the future climate scenarios of superficial temperatureincreasing of 2 to 4°C in South America. However, the uncertain isgreater for rainfall changes, mainly for the Amazonia and BrazilianNortheast (Figure 1). Evidently, these climate changes have an impact onthe natural ecossystems and specifically in the biome distribution, whatconsequently have impacts on biodiversity, agriculture, water resources,etc. The future of biome distribution in tropical South America, that willprobably be affected by the combination of impacts due to both landcover and climate change, points out to savannization of portions oftropical forest in Amazonia and desertification of parts of NortheastBrazil (second vegetation-climate equilibrium state founded by Oyamaand Nobre, 2003). The combination of warming and rainfall changesindicates less water availability for large portions of tropical SouthAmerica, which a strong impact on the agriculture and water resources.
For a large scale, there is a reasonable corresponde between the globaldistribution ot potencial and natural vegetation (native vegetation,without antropogenic land cover changes). How In regional scale theclimate is not the only factor that determines the vegetation type (othersfactors, such as topography, soil type, fire ocurrence, etc.), there aredifferences between the spatial distribution of potential and naturalvegetation. Thus, the potential vegetation model CPTEC-PVM is beenadapted to be used on regional scale. The regional climate scenarios thatwill be product of
project (Marengo, 2004; Marengo and Ambrizzi,2006) will lead to study, with regional potential vegetation models, theconsequences of climate change in South America and will allow thecomparison with the results found in the large scale.
“Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios forStudies on Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America(GOF-UK-CPTEC)”
Education for Kids Concerning Climate Change
Considering the importance of the care with environment and kidseducation in this point of view, the National Institute of Spatial ResearchINPE and the Climate Studies and Whether Prediction Centre CPTECthrough the “The Use of Climate Change Regional Scenarios in Studiesof Vulnerability andAdaptation in Brazil and southAmerica (
)”, suggest itself the realization of an education campaignaiming the children in basic school level, though that is considered a verygood space to begin with the learning concerning the environment thatwe live, and also through the kids to establish a learning web to reach theclosest adults around them.
GOF-UK-CPTEC
The educative proposalconsiders that School isnot a unity apart of thecommunity life; it isan important part ofthe society, whichframes true mutualvalues. Besides,children with theircreativity can findsolutions for realproblems, working witheducative purposes thatallow them to expresstheir reality.
Diana Raigoza and Josiane Cristina Mendonça de OliveiraProject GOF-UK-CPTEC
Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brasil
Related to the climate change topic, there are very few educativecampaigns being done. However, the topic is calling the attention of theauthorities, because everyday our natural and urban environments arebeing affected by the constant climate changes.
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Socialization
For the socialization of the educative campaign, it will happen thecasting of the first number of the “Little Planet and His Troop” brochurein several schools. There are also been planned other activitiesfor the children, such as painting and tale concourses.
cultural
Who is “Little Planet”?
He is a character created with a missionof saving the Earth. His function is toteach children what climate change isand how can affects the daily routine ofthe society. The character has beencreated by Giuliano Guerra MendonçaMarcelino, a Brazilian eleven years oldboy.
The brochure has been idealized byJosiane Cristina Mendonça de Oliveira,who works for the GOF-UK-CPTECproject, and she is convinced that withthe children's help, a better future for theclimate of the planet can be reached.
One more person has had an importancein the creative process: LeandroGuarino. He is the web designer thatdigitalized all Giuliano's drawings andalso created the web site on the internet,that this being implemented for theCPTEC-INPE.
Planetinha eSua Turma
ABCda
MudançaClimática
"DIVIRTA-SE E SAIBA COMO CUIDAR
DO NOSSO PLANETA”
Jogo dos 7 erros
Palavras-Cruzadas
Caça-Palavras
E muitas brincadeiras...
Jogo da Memória
da
M
á
u
t
da
C
n
a
ç
i
a
ml ic
The Brochure
There are 14 very colorful pages in total, with the following contents:
* ABC of the climate change - Through the letters of the alphabet,they are presented different meanings about the climate changetopic.
* Curious facts - Related to the environment, recycle importanceand other cares that we must have with the environment.
* Games - It is a place where the children can color the pictures,play memory games, crosswords, word search among others.
The first 2500 copies of the brochure will be printed with the support ofthe Ministry of Science and Technology from Brazil. Contacts are beendone with educative public and private institutions, as well as with publicand private companies that have shown some interest in support theeducative campaign.
Project “Using Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Studieson Vulnerability and Adaptation in Brazil and South America(GOF-UK-CPTEC)”
José Marengo, Leader and ManagerCarlos Nobre, ResearcherDiana Raigoza, Researcher and editor of the NewsLetter
ResearcherResearcher
Josiane C.M de Oliveira,
-CPTEC-
María Valverde,Igor Andreevich Pisnitchenko,
Administrative Assistant
Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos ClimáticosRodovia Presidente Dutra, Km 40, SP-RJ12630-000, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, BrazilTelephone: +55 (12) 3186-8633Fax: +55 (12) 3101-2835Email contact: [email protected] /[email protected] / [email protected]
Stratégy
To reach the objective of the educativecampaign, a character has beencreated to protect Earth, called
. This character is the start pointfor the elaboration of a brochure titled“ ”.
The brochure will be publishedinitially in Portuguese language in theschools of Vale do Paraíba region, SaoPaulo state, Brazil.
As the objective of the research projectattends other
regions from South America, CPTEC-INPE is developing a website on theinternet, where it will be available oninteractive way the “
”. The website also will beavailable in Spanish and English.
LittlePlanet
GOF-UK-CPTEC
Little Planet and His Troop
Little Planet andHis Troop
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