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London summit 2017Breaking Clean
Michael Liebreich
September 19, 2017
1 September 19, 2017
$62bn$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
$258bn(estimate)
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage
projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations
$300 billion
2 September 19, 2017
$62bn$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
$258bn(estimate)
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20GW
88GW
160GW
Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage
projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations
$300 billion
3 September 19, 2017
Source: ABC Australia, Independent, Bloomberg, Oilprice.com
Plenty of good news – 1
4 September 19, 2017
Source: Businessgreen, FT, Bloomberg, BBC
Plenty of good news – 2
5 September 19, 2017
Source: The Telegraph, Bloomberg, The Economist
Plenty of good news – 3
6 September 19, 2017
President Trump
Source: White House
7 September 19, 2017
Trump on climate December 2009
If we fail to act now, it is scientifically
irrefutable that there will be catastrophic
and irreversible consequences for
humanity and our planet.
Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump Jr
Eric F. Trump
Ivanka M. Trump
Image: New York Times
8 September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 6 November 2012
The concept of global warming was
created by and for the Chinese in order to
make U.S. manufacturing non-
competitive.
Donald Trump
US Presidential CandidateImage: IBTimesUK
9 September 19, 2017
Trump on climate February/March 2017
Source: White House, EPA
10 September 19, 2017
The United States will withdraw from the
Paris Climate Accord.
Trump on climate 1 June 2017
Donald Trump
US PresidentImage: Bloomberg
11 September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 16 September 2017
The U.S. has stated that they will not
renegotiate the Paris accord, but they will
try to review the terms on which they
could be engaged under this agreement.
Miguel Arias Cañete
European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy
Wall Street Journal Image: European Union
12 September 19, 2017
Trump on climate 17 September 2017
The President said he's open to finding
those conditions where we can remain
engaged with others on what we all agree
is still a challenging issue.
Rex Tillerson
US Secretary of StateImage: US Department of Energy
13 September 19, 2017
There has been no change in the United
States' position on the Paris agreement.
Trump on climate 16 September 2017
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
White House Press SecretaryImage: Washington Examiner
14 September 19, 2017
Source: Emojipedia
The world’s response to Trump on climate
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
15 September 19, 2017
Source: NASA
The world in 2004…
16 September 19, 2017
Source: EIASource: EIA
IEO 2004 world coal and gas consumption
EIA global energy mix and fuel consumption forecastGlobal energy consumption mix
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Quadrillion Btu
Coal
Natural Gas
17 September 19, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
$/bbl real 2000
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Oil price history and 2004 forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Axis title (units)
IEA WEO 2004 oil price forecast
EIA 2004 oil price forecast
18 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIASource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global gas price benchmarks, 1990-2004 Net U.S. LNG imports
Gas prices and U.S. imports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000
$/MMBtu
Japan cif
Germany averageborder price
NBP
Henry Hub
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Trillion cubic feet
2004 EIA forecast
19 September 19, 2017
Source: International Atomic Energy Agency; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Nuclear was about to undergo a renaissance
Reactors in
operation in 2010
Reactors
expected to be in
operation by 2025
New nuclear powers
20 September 19, 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW installed
WEO 2004 forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW installed
WEO 2004 forecast
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Wind
IEA Outlook for renewables in 2004 – cumulative capacity
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Solar
21 September 19, 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Capacity additions per year (GW)
2004-10
2011-20
2021-30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Capacity additions per year (GW)
2004-10
2011-20
2021-30
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Solar
IEA outlook for renewables in 2004 – annual additions
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Wind
22 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Wind Solar
Wind and solar costs
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
1985
1994
1999
2004
eur/MWh
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2004 wind
LCOE
€150/MWh
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000
2003
1976
1985
Cumulative capacity (MW)
$/W
2004 c-Si
module price
$4.1/W
23 September 19, 2017
Source: DOE, European Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Technology Platform, Juhani Laurikko (Premia-EU)
H2FC vehicle targets for 2020 in 2004
“Fuel cell vehicles will probably overtake gasoline-
powered cars in the next 20 to 30 years
Takeo Fukui, Managing Director,
Research and Development, Honda Motor Co., Bloomberg
News, June 5, 1999
“Fuel cells will power cars with little or no waste at all.
We happen to believe that fuel cell cars are the wave
of the future; that fuel cells offer incredible opportunity.
US President George W. Bush, February 25, 2002
5m2.5m
5m
(m vehicles)
24 September 19, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
TWh per year
Europe
North America
Asia-Pacific
Latam
Africa
Middle East
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Renewable electricity generation by region, 1990-2004
25 September 19, 2017
Source: BBC
EU leadership from 2004
26 September 19, 2017
Not everyone agreed with the orthodoxy…
© New Energy Finance
The world in 2004
Source: New Energy Finance
Problems Opportunities
• Breakthroughs in material sciences
• Experience curves
• Low-cost communications
• Energy deregulation
• Innovation/entrepreneurship
• Availability of capital
• Climate Change
• Second Gulf War
• Aging power infrastructure(developed world)
• Brownouts(industrialising countries)
• Energy poverty(poorest countries)
• Rise of China
28 September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
20001995199019th C
300m
200m
100m
1-12kW0.5 MW
1.2 MW2 MW
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
29 September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
2000 20051995199019th C
300m
200m
100m
1-12kW0.5 MW
1.2 MW2 MW
4 MW
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
30 September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
2000 2005 20101995199019th C
300m
200m
100m
1-12kW0.5 MW
1.2 MW2 MW
4 MW
7 MW
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
31 September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
20152000 2005 20101995199019th C
300m
200m
100m
1-12kW0.5 MW
1.2 MW2 MW
4 MW
7 MW 9 MW
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
32 September 19, 2017
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
202520152000 2005 20101995199019th C
300m
200m
100m
1-12kW0.5 MW
1.2 MW2 MW
4 MW
7 MW 9 MW
13-15 MW
Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
33 September 19, 2017
Source: A. J. Nozik, NREL
Solar cost information2004-style
© New Energy Finance
New Energy Finance: the Thesis
Fundamental re-engineering of the world’s energy
industry around low carbon solutions and architecture
Will require trillions
of dollars
Will take decades
Will be funded
mainly by world’s
capital markets
Source: New Energy Finance 2008
35 September 19, 2017
Image: NASA
The world today…
36 September 19, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
$/bbl real 2000
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Oil price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Axis title (units)
IEA WEO 2004 oil price forecast
EIA 2004 oil price forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
$/bbl real 2000
37 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
38 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
39 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
40 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
41 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
42 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
43 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
44 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
45 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
46 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
47 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
48 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG 1997-2030
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
49 September 19, 2017
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US Projected net imports of LNG
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Trillion cubic feet
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual
Import
er
Export
er
50 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review
Gas prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
$/MMBtu
Japan cif
Germany averageborder price
NBP
Henry Hub
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
$/MMBtu
Japan cif
Germany averageborder price
NBP
Henry Hub
51 September 19, 2017
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000
1993 1999 2005 2011
Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia S & Cent. America North America
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical ReviewNote: Adjusted to standard coal equivalent
Coal production Coal consumption
Coal has peaked
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mt/yr
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mt/yr
52 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Wind Solar
0.1
1
10
100
1 100 10000 1000000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2015
2017(estimate)
$/W
Wind and solar experience curves
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1985
20252014Learning rate =19%R² = 0.91
1999
2009
eur/MWh
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Learning rate = 19% Learning rate = 24-28%
53 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2017
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
United Arab Emirates
Marubeni and Jinko Solar
2017
2019
US$ 2.42 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Merchant Price:
Germany
DONG/EnBW
2016
2024
US$ 4.9 c/kWh
54 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
55 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
56 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
57 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
58 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
59 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
60 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
61 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
62 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
63 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
64 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Global cumulative wind installations Annual wind additions
IEA wind capacity forecast evolution
Note: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
65 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
66 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
67 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
68 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
69 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
70 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
71 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
72 September 19, 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
73 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
74 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
75 September 19, 2017
Source: IEA World Energy OutlookNote: 2004-2009 Reference, 2010-2016 New Policies Scenario
Global cumulative solar installations
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600GW installed
Historical 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual solar additions
IEA solar capacity forecast evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW installed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW per year
76 September 19, 2017
Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Renewable energy proportion of power generation, 2006-16
Lowest
Mid
Highest
No data
13%
30%
Spain
3%12%
Australia
6%
18%
Brazil
5% 6%
Canada
6%10%
China
9%
29%
Germany2%
25%
UK
4% 6%
India12%
25%
Italy
7%12%
Japan
3%9%
US
1% 3%
South Africa
77 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Fuel cell vehicles (thousand units)Electric vehicles (thousand units)
FCV vs. BEV sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
78 September 19, 2017
Photos: Wikimedia Commons; DigitalGlobe; Pete Marovich/Bloomberg; KAL/Economist
Black Swans
Fracking Fukushima Elon Musk
79 September 19, 2017
$1.5 billion
The price of failure
Source: Various, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Spot Survey
PV grade silicon price index, 2000-2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
$/kg
80 September 19, 2017
$48 billion
The price of failure
81 September 19, 2017 Image: various company sources
Investment Pte
Coal bankruptcies, 2011-2017
STOWE Global Coal Index, 2011-17
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-75% in six
years
82 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Haynes and Boone LLP
US oil and gas company bankruptcy filings, 2015-present
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17
Cumulative outstanding debt of U.S. E&P companies under Chapter 11 protection ($ million)
Unsecureddebt
Secureddebt
$79bn of debt
in Chapter 11
83 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
German utility balance sheet write-downs
E.ON/Uniper
RWE/Innogy
Vattenfall
EnBW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cumulative (€ billions)
$66bn of
write-downs
84 September 19, 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2005 2010 2015
Saudi Arabia reserve foreign exchange holdings ($bn)
Saudi Arabia’s forex reserves
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, The Economist
Oil Minister Al Naimi
declares market share
war on US shale oil
$240bn
decline in fx
reserves
85 September 19, 2017
Some people are still calling it wrong
The social cost of renewable energy
should include the cost of stranding
thermal power and coal assets.
Arvind Subramanian
Chief Economic Advisor
Indian Government Image: Financial Express
86 September 19, 2017
Some people are not wrong but misleading
Solar and wind is taking over the world.
We hear it all the time. Only it is wrong -
now 0.6%, 2040 2.9%.
Bjørn Lomborg
visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School
President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center Image: Lomborg.com
87 September 19, 2017
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab
Sankey for the U.S. in 2016 68% of primary
energy is
wasted…
…almost all
of it from
coal, oil, gas
and nuclear
88 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Other RE
IEA NPS 2014Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Other RE
IEA NPS 2040Primary Energy
Coal
Gas
Oil
NuclearOther RE
IEA NPS 2040 FinalEnergy
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Other RE
Wind
Solar
IEA NPS 2040Electricity
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Other RE
Wind
Solar
BNEF NEO 2040Electricity
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Other RE
Wind
IEA NPS 2014Electricity
Contribution of wind and solar2.9% 34%6.0%0.6% 16%4%
89 September 19, 2017
Image: NASA
The world in 2040
90 September 19, 2017
Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity
Coal30%
Gas24%
Oil6%
Nuclear5%
Hydro17%
Onshore wind7%
Utility-scale PV3%
Small-scale PV2%
6,719GW
Coal13%
Gas14%
Nuclear3%
Hydro12%Onshore
wind14%
Utility-scale PV
22%
Small-scale PV
10%
13,919GW
Flexible capacity
Global cumulative installed capacity:
2016
Global cumulative installed capacity:
2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
91 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Solar and wind attract 60% of new investment in power generating capacity
Fossil fuels14%
Zero-carbon86%
$10.2 trillion
$3.3
$2.8
$1.4
$1.1
$0.8
$0.7
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Coal
($ trillion - 2016 real)
Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 Investment, by technology, 2017-2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
92 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
China U.S.
Tipping point 1: new vs new
Utility-scale PV
Coal
Onshore wind
CCGT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh (real 2016)
Utility-scale PV
Coal
Onshore wind
CCGT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh (real 2016)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
93 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Japan India
Tipping point 1: new vs new
Utility-scale PV
Coal
Onshore wind
CCGT
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh (real 2016)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
94 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Germany China
Tipping point 2: new vs existing
Utility-scale PV
Coal
Onshore wind
CCGT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh (real 2016)
Utility-scale PV
Coal
Onshore wind
CCGT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$/MWh (real 2016)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
95 September 19, 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Coal generation Coal generation
Poor outlook for coal in U.S., Europe and China
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TWh
U.S.
Europe
China
India
SE Asia +50%
+132%
96 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Incremental change in gas consumption Incremental change in generation
Gas plays an important role, but its not bulk energy
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
2017-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40
China India Rest of APAC AmericasEurope ME & Africa ROW
Bcm/yr
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040
Δ generation (TWh)
Coal Gas
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
97 September 19, 2017
Top 5 markets in 2040
China 343GW
U.S. 200GW
India 127GW
Japan 62GW
Germany 30GW
Demand response and batteries meet peak and balance the grid
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW
Other flexiblecapacity
Demandresponse
Utility-scalebatteries
Small-scalebatteries
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
98 September 19, 2017
Image: NASA
We need to talk about Europe
99 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF New Energy Outlook: Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Cumulative installed capacity (GW)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Cumulative installed capacity (GW)
Other flexible capacityDemand responseUtility-scale batteriesSmall-scale batteriesOtherSolar thermalSmall-scale PVUtility-scale PVOffshore windOnshore windBiomassGeothermalHydroNuclearOilGasCoalVariable renewables share
Penetration of variable renewables
BNEF predicts
50% renewables
penetration in
Europe by 2040
100 September 19, 2017
Source: New Energy Finance
European policy environment
“Stability of incentive programmes,
planning processes & regulations is a
big barrier to investment”
8 December 2005
101 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2004
102 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2004
103 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2004
104 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2005
105 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2005
106 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2005
107 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2005
108 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2006
109 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2006
110 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2006
111 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2006
112 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2007
113 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2007
114 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2007
115 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2007
116 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2008
117 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2008
118 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2008
119 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2008
120 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2009
121 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2009
122 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2009
123 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2009
124 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2010
125 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2010
126 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2010
127 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2010
128 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2011
129 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2011
130 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2011
131 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2011
132 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2012
133 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2012
134 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2012
135 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2012
136 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2013
137 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2013
138 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2013
139 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2013
140 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2014
141 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2014
142 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2014
143 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2014
144 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2015
145 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2015
146 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2015
147 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2015
148 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2016
149 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2016
150 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q3 2016
151 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q4 2016
152 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q1 2017
153 September 19, 2017
Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
New investment in clean energy ($bn)
Europe, Middle East & Africa
AmericasAsia-Pacific
$50bn
Q2 2017
154 September 19, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
20
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
20
11
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
20
08
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1402005
2008
2011
2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
2008
2011
2014
Mt coal per year
EU member state coal consumption 2000-16
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review
Germany Poland UK GreeceCzech Rep BulgariaSpain Italy Romania Netherlands
155 September 19, 2017
Source: UBA; BNEF
Germany CO2 emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MtCO2e
Other Waste AgricultureHouseholds Industry FugitiveTransport Manufacturing and construction Heat and power
Total emissions
Power sector
German
emissions
have been flat
since 2010
156 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions; Coal and gas
generation data is for 2015.
Europe generation mix and emissions
2030 range
0 100 200 300
Portugal
Romania
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Greece
Czech Rep
Spain
Italy
UK
Poland
Germany
0 50 100 150
Portugal
Romania
Greece
Ireland
Belgium
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
UK
Italy
Coal (TWh) Gas (TWh)
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2015
157 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EU ETS price projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
20
22
202
3
202
4
202
5
202
6
202
7
202
8
202
9
203
0
EUR per metric ton, nominal
No EU ETS Brexit
EU ETS Brexit
H1 2017
Historical Forecast
158 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017
Annual global light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet
Electric vehicle outlook to 2040
3%8%
24%
43%
54%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million vehicles
ICE sales EV sales
1%2%
7%
19%
33%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million cars on road
ICE fleet EV fleet
159 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017; Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs.
Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 2016 U.S. dollars.
Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
$/kWh
BNEF observedvalues
19% learningrate
BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index2010-16.
2030 average lithium-ion battery price:$73/kWh
2025 average lithium-ionbattery price: $109/kWh
160 September 19, 2017
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Small vans
Runabouts
Hatchbacks
Sedans
Sports cars
SUVs/Trucks
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, Images various.
Notes: Not exhaustive.
(*) Range is estimate
BEV model availability, 2008-20
Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster
20082009
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW mini e
Smith Edison
2010Ford Transit
M-B E-CellHyundai
BlueOn
Nissan Leaf
Kia Ray
2011
Ford Focus
Renault KangooM-B Vito
BYD e6
Renault Fluence
2012Renault Twizy
Smart
ForTwo
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
Tesla Model S
Toyota
RAV4
Honda Fit
CODA EV
2013Peugeot Partner
Exagon Furtive
M-B SLS eDrive
BMW i3
Chevy Spark
Mahindra e2o
VW
e-Up
2014
VW e-Golf
Nissan NV200
M-B B-Class
JAC iEV4
2015Kandi Panda Bollore
Bluesummer
Mullen 700e
ChangAn
Eado
2016
Chevy Bolt
Audi R8 E-tron
BYD T3
Mahindra eVerito
2017
Qianto Q50
Aston Martin
RapidE
Tesla Model 3
Hyundai Ioniq
2018
Land Rover
Defender
Honda Clarity
2019
Porsche E-sport
M-B EQ
Jaguar
I-Pace
Mitsubishi eX
2020
Tesla Roadster
GLM G4
VW e-Bulli
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand
Audi E-tron
Sportback
VW I.D.
VW I.D. CROZZ
NIO ES8*
Tesla Roadster*
ChangAn EM80
VW I.D. BUZZ
Renault DeZir
Trumpchi
GS4
SAIC E-Lavida
Tata
IRIS
VW I.D.*
Audi E-tron
Quattro
Tesla
Model Y*
BYD e5
Volvo 40.2*
Tesla
pickup*
Nissan Leaf 2*
Lucid Air
+ miles range per charge
Faraday
FF91
NIO EVELeEco LeSEE
Chehejia
SUV*
BMW i5
Seat Mii*
Tesla
Model XVW
Budd-e
NIO EP9
161 September 19, 2017
Battery availability and prices
Global EV Li-ion manufacturing capacity
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017
103 103
36
131
2017 2021 expected
GWh
Announced
Underconstruction
Commissioned
103
271
Global EV charging points installed
28
98
137151
225
363
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thousand units installed
Other
Germany
France
Norway
UK
Netherlands
Japan
US
China
+248% +40% +61%+49%+10%
162 September 19, 2017
Image: NASA
The big challenge
163 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various
High renewable penetrations9 July 2015
Denmark
140% wind
May 2016
Germany
67% wind & solar
25 December 2016
Scotland
153% wind
23 March 2017
CAISO
46% wind & solar
9 April 2017
UK 56%
wind & solar
13 February 2017
SPP
52% wind
26 December 2014
South Australia
61% wind & solarNovember 2015
Spain
70% windNovember 2017
ERCOT
45% wind
164 September 19, 2017
Future power supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Winter
Summer
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Low carbon generation
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Flexible generation
=
=
+
+
Total generation
165 September 19, 2017
Future power supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Winter
Summer
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Low carbon generation
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Flexible generation
=
=
+
+
Total generation
166 September 19, 2017
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Capacity market
Interconnections
Curtailment
Two visions of the futureOption B: Demand-Led
-50-40-30-20-100102030
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Storage/DR Peaking fossil Exports/Curtailment
Option A: Capacity markets
“Central planning lite” “Telecoms deregulation lite”
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
167 September 19, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica
New orthodoxyBy 2040…
1/3 of electricity
will be wind and
solar
1/3 of cars and
light trucks will be
electric
The global
economy will be
1/3 more energy
efficient
Shipping/air/freight
Land-use/deforestation
Petrochemicals
Industry
Energy access
Heat
…too hard
168 September 19, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Rebased to 100 in 2014
IEA NPS total emissions
IEA NPS power sector emissions
BNEF NEO emissions
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
New orthodoxy
Prove
it
wrong!
169 September 19, 2017
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