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MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
BLOOMBERG NEW
ENERGY FINANCE
MOVING TOWARDS A LOW CARBON ECONOMY
20 MARCH 2012
TARYN WILKINS
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 2 / / / /
TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
A billion dollars isn’t cool.
You know what’s cool?
A trillion dollars.
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 3 / / / /
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY,
2004–11 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted
for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions
$54bn
$75bn
$113bn
$153bn
$187bn $189bn
$247bn
39%
51%
35%
22%
1%
31%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$0bn$0bn
$0bn
$0bn
$0bn $0bn
$260bn
5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$0bn$0bn
$0bn
$0bn
$0bn $0bn
$260bn
5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5%
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 4 / / / /
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TOTAL NEW CLEAN ENERGY FINANCIAL INVESTMENT,
2010–11 ($BN)
Note: Includes small distributed capacity and adjustments for re-invested equity. Does
not include corporate and government R&D or proceeds from acquisition transactions
2010 2011
5.3
6.6
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.0
20.2
32.1
33.7
45.0
Canada
India
Spain
Brazil
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
US
China
5.5
8.0
8.6
8.6
9.4
10.2
28.0
30.6
45.5
48.1
Canada
Brazil
Spain
Japan
UK
India
Italy
Germany
China
US
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 5 / / / /
EU NET CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW)
Source: EWEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Other
Gas
PV
Wind
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 6 / / / /
PROPORTION OF WIND IN ELECTRICITY MIX, 2011
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, grid operators
Texas 8%
Ireland 10%
Spain 15%
Portugal 21%
Denmark 22%
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 7 / / / /
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Coal Fired
Natural Gas CCGT - US
Natural Gas CCGT - Europe
Natural Gas CCGT - Japan
Landfill Gas
Geothermal - Flash Plant
Wind - Onshore
Geothermal - Binary Plant
Municipal Solid Waste
Biomass - Incineration
Biomass - Anaerobic Digestion
Biomass - Gasification
PV - c-Si Tracking
PV - Thin Film
PV - c-Si
STEG - Tower & Heliostat w/storage
Wind - Offshore
STEG - Tower & Heliostat
STEG - Parabolic Trough + Storage
STEG - LFR
STEG - Parabolic Trough
Marine - Tidal
Marine - Wave
LCOE BNEF 2011 EU-ETS EUA Forecast
-
LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY Q4 2011 ($/MWH)
Carbon from the BNEF European Carbon Model with an average price of $36/tCO2 to 2020, driven by the rising cost of abatement (largely due to less cheap fuel-switching
potential) in Phase IV. Coal and natural gas capex from the US Department of Energy EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011. US gas: Henry Hub, Japanese: imported LNG, EU:
German/UK gas. Health costs from the New York Academy of Sciences 1219: 73-98 “Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal”
Fossil fuelled Fossil fuelled w/CO2 Competitive clean energy Health costs BNEF 2011 EUA forecast
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 8 / / / /
THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976–2012 ($/W)
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, FSLR filings Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-Si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98
MW (log)
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
historic prices experience curve
Chinese c-Si module prices Thin-film experience curve
First Solar thin-film module cost
1976
1985
2003
2006
2012
2012
PRICES HAVE FALLEN
75% SINCE 2008
45% OVER PAST YEAR
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 9 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2010 LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 10 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2010
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
Spain
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 11 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2011
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
SpainItaly
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 12 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2012
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
Brazil
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
Portugal
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 13 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2013
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
Brazil
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
Portugal
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 14 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2014
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
Brazil
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Portugal
GreeceTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 15 / / / /
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
BrazilJapan
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Portugal
GreeceTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower market
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2015
Residential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 16 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2016
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
BrazilJapan
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Israel
Portugal
GreeceTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 17 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2017
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
BrazilJapan
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Israel
Portugal
GreeceCzech RepTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 18 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2018
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
BrazilJapan
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Israel
Portugal
GreeceCzech RepTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 19 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2019
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
United States
Mexico
BrazilJapan
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Israel
Portugal
GreeceCzech RepTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 20 / / / /
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%
capex as O&M annually.
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
2020
LCOE
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,100 1,400 1,700 2,000 2,300
$/kWh
United States
Mexico
BrazilJapan
South Korea
Australia
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Israel
Portugal
GreeceCzech RepTurkey
EMEA ASOC AMER50GW
kWh/kW/year
More sun
Residentialpower marketResidential
Power market
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 21 / / / /
AVERAGE LCOE OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-2011 (€/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R2 = 0.88 and 14% learning rate.
14%
1984 1990 2000 2004 201110
50
100
500
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MW
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 22 / / / /
197
51
-79
-39
-10-18
0
50
100
150
200
LCOE 1984 Turbine price
reduction
Opex
declines
Hub height Efficiency LCOE 2012
LCOE REDUCTIONS, ONSHORE WIND, 1984-2012 (EUR/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
7% turbine cost
experience curve
7% efficiency
experience curve
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 23 / / / /
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Actual annual
energy demand
AUSTRALIA ACTUAL VS FORECASTED ELECTRICITY
DEMAND, 2005–2020 (TWH)
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
Forecast as of
August 2011
5% shortfall due to
“energy efficiency
and solar”
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 24 / / / /
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
JAPAN’S NUCLEAR FLEET (% OF REACTORS ONLINE)
Source: ANEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Q1
2010
Q2
2010 Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
11 MARCH 2011
EARTHQUAKE &
TSUNAMI
MICHAEL LIEBREICH KEYNOTE, 20 MARCH 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 25 / / / /
THANK YOU!
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
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