Biomass & Waste Resource Availability

10th April 2019Conference Aston, Aston University, Birmingham

Andrew WelfleTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

University of Manchester

UK Bioenergy Roadmap vs. Biomass DemandsUK Bioenergy

Sector2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term

Bio-Heat

Sector

Demand Trends

Gradual increase in demand reflecting both increased traditional and specialist

roles for bio-heat.

Gradual decline in demand reflecting the targeted focus on emerging alternative low carbon heat

technologies. Bio-heat continuing within specialist roles such as by industry.

Key Resource Demands

Wood based resources

Wood based resources (pellets & chips) Feedstocks for advanced bioenergy technologies

Bio-PowerSector

Demand Trends

Sharp increase in demand driven by increased & further conversion of

conventional power plants to allow co-firing with biomass.

Gradual decline in demand as co-firing plants are expected to gradually close. Continuing demand

for bio-power systems contributing to balance peak energy demands.

Key Resource Demands

Solid biomass resources (wood, animal based, plant based, wastes) Potential for growth of biogas

BiofuelSector

Demand Trends

Sharp increase in demand for biofuels for the transport sector.

High uncertainty for the long-term biofuel sector, due to potential emergence of alternative low

carbon technologies.

Key Resource Demands

Energy Crops Energy Crops Lignocellulosic resources.

Biomass Resource Availability Research

Papers Focusing on Biomass Resource Modelling

Annual Number of Journal Papers Published with Focus on Biomass

Resource Modelling

AHDB (2018), CCC (2011), DEFRA (2018), E4Tech (2017), E4tech ARUP & URS (2014), Health and Safety Executive (2018), NNFCC (2014), Ricardo-AEA (2017), Searle et al (2013), Smith et al (2016), Tolvik Consulting (2016), Welfle et al (2014a), Welfle et al (2014b), WRAP (2009)

UK Biomass Resource Forecasts

Ranges of UK Biomass Resource Availability (2030) as Forecast by Research

Food vs. Biomass

Land vs. BiomassIndustry vs. Biomass

Biomass Resource Model

UK Biomass Demand vs. Domestic SupplyMy work

• XXXX Forecast UK Biomass Resource Demand

UK Biomass Availability Scenarios

UK Waste Resource Availability

UK Waste Generation by SectorDEFRA (2015)

Construction & Mining Sector Wastes are dominant, but largely not suitable for bioenergy.

Opportunities from Households & the Service Sector

Each sector provides a further niche bioenergy opportunity.

UK Wastes by Category

Household Wastes

Food & Other Organic WastesPaper, Plastic Wood

etc

DEFRA (2015)

Oils, Chemicals

etc

UK Waste Management Pathways

Target Waste Fractions:

UK Waste Management Pathways

The Context of Scale:

Analysing Future Resource PotentialWaste Categories Analysed

Chemical wastes Industrial effluent sludges Waste treatment sludges & liquids Rubber wastes Wood wastes Textile wastes Animal & mixed food waste Vegetal wastes Animal faeces, urine & manure Household & similar wastes Mixed & undifferentiated materials Sorting residues Common sludges Mineral waste from waste treatment

• Industry Growth Rates

• Industry Material Efficiencies - Waste Generation

• Waste & Recycling Rates + Targets

• Landfill Rates + Targets

• EfW & Infrastructure Trends

Future Resource PotentialTrajectories of UK Waste with Bioenergy Potential:

Waste Fraction with Potential for Bioenergy Industry Growth Forecasts Industry Resource Efficiency Trends

Future Resource PotentialSCENARIO 1: Business as Usual

Continuation of Current Waste Management Practice

Future Resource PotentialSCENARIO 2: Policy Implementation

Implementation of UK Waste Targets + Aspirations UK Clean Growth Strategy

Future Resource PotentialSCENARIO 3: Biofuel Focus

Rethinking the Waste Hierarchy Prioritising Resource for Bioenergy Strategy, legislation & policies

fundamental in determining waste resource availability.

How Should the UK use its Waste Feedstocks?

Workshop Attendees thought:

UK Agriculture & Forestry Resource

Availability

UK Forestry ResiduesFuture Resource Potential

Forestry residues represent a small but potentially increasing feedstock opportunity.

Increasing the UK’s managed forest area will provide future options for bioenergy.

Crop Agricultural ResiduesFuture Resource Potential

Agricultural crop residues would also represent a relatively stable resource supply for bioenergy.

Effort required to mobilise the resource at scale. Alternative options may be required for competing users of

these materials.

Animal Agricultural WastesFuture Resource Potential

Agricultural animal wastes could provide an extremely large and continual supply of feedstock.

Much effort required to achieve the higher limits of this potential, for example collecting & transport a highly spread material.

How Should the UK use its Residue Feedstocks?

Workshop Attendees thought:

UK Grown Bioenergy Feedstock Availability

UK Resources Grown for BioenergyWelfle et al 2014

Percentages Reflect Proportions of Current UK Agricultural Land Area

The Potential of UK Contaminated Lands

Niche Opportunities for the Bioenergy Sector

Energy Crop Production Potential (tonnes) from UK Contaminated Lands

How Should the UK use its Grown Feedstocks?

Workshop Attendees thought:

Conclusions• UK energy roadmap has strong ambitions for bioenergy.• Domestic resource does not/ will not balance demand.• Much debate about how to use the UK’s limit resources.• Many studies have analysed availability of UK biomass

resources. • Wastes represent key target feedstock, although future

availability will be highly influenced by policy.• Residues can provide readily available resource

opportunity, but have competing uses and mobilisation challenges.

• Dedication of UK lands to grow bioenergy feedstocks may provide great opportunities, but needs much policy support.

PhD Opportunity : • Fully Funded PhD focusing on:

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS)

• Eligibility: UK / EU Students

• Come talk to me, or email me: andrew.welfle@manchester.ac.uk

Any questions?

Dr. Andrew WelfleTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

The University of Manchester

andrew.welfle@manchester.ac.uk +44 (0)161 275 4339

@andrew_welfleAndrew Welfle