Bioenergy strategy: the LACAF/GSB project

Bioenergy strategy: the LACAF/GSB project

Luís CortezProfessor UNICAMPVice Coordinator of Special Programs- FAPESP

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IANAS 2nd Energy Meeting – Bogotá, Colombia9-10 June 2011

http://www.fapesp.br/en/

Presentation

1. Introduction2. Presentation LACAF/GSB project collaboration:

- GSB tasks- LACAF structure- LACAF/GSB/IANAS collaboration

Global Sustainable Bioenergy project-GSB

Board:Prof. Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz, Fapesp, Brazil (Chairman)Prof. Luuk van der Viellen, T.U. Delft, The NetherlandsDr. Martin Keller, Oak Ridge Laboratory, USA

Executive Committee:Prof. Lee Lynd, Darthmouth College, USAProf. Patricia Osseweijer, T.U. Delft, The NetherlandsProf. Luís Cortez, UNICAMP, Brazil

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GSB tasks

• Task 1. Current land inventory• Task 2. Pasture intensification• Task 3. Double crops• Task 4. Change animal feed rations• Task 5. Dietary choice & food supply chain efficiency• Task 6. Energy crop productivity• Task 7. Food security• Task 8. Fertilizer demand, residue utilization, and soil fertility• Task 9. Integrated analysis

Potential LeversFostering large scale bioenergy production

Potential Levers or/and Constraints

Potential/PerceivedShowstoppers

Pasture intensification

Double crops

Changed animal feed rationsBurned/disturbed land

Demand

Productivity offood/feedcrops

Food security impactsFertilizer demand impacts

Available Land(Quantity & quality)

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

Literature

Task 6BioenergyCropProductivity

Tons Conversion(Literature)

Bioenergy ProductionPotential(Quantity & quality)

LandRequiredForFood Production

Whether/HowShowstoppersCan be Avoided

Task 5 Dietarychoice & foodsupply chainefficiency

Literature

Task 7

Task 8

Task 9IntegratedAnalysis

Fuel & electricity demand and efficiency of utilization (literature)

Current LandInventory(Foundationfor other tasks)

GSB Stage 2 Tasks

Land Availability for bioenergy in Latin America and Africa

6Sources: FAOSTAT (2008), IICA (2009), www.eclac.org. 2009

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Food (Grains) and Energy (Gasoline) Dependence in Latin

America

Brazil - 196

Argentina - 100

Colombia - 39Mexico - 75

Peru - 17

Bolivia - 33

Guatemala - 2

Costa Rica - 1

Nicaragua - 3

Jamaica - 0.2

Paraguay - 16

Cuba - 3

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

-100% 0% 100%

Energy (in)dependence - GasolineExport - Import / Consumption

Ag

ric

ult

ura

l (i

n)d

ep

en

de

nc

e -

Gra

ins

Exp

ort

- Im

po

rt /

Co

nsu

mp

tion

Brazil - 196

Argentina - 100

Colombia - 39

Mexico - 75

Peru - 17

Bolivia - 33

Guatemala - 2

Costa Rica - 1

Nicaragua - 3

Guyana - 1

J amaica - 0.2

Paraguay - 16

Cuba - 3

Food Independence and

Gasoline Dependence

Food and Gasoline Independence

Food and Gasoline Dependence

Food Dependenceand

Gasoline Independence

Pasture and Prairie Land (Mha)

Source: FAO and IEA

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Ethanol production in Latin America

Source: USDA, 2010

Latin America & Caribbean and AfricaLACAF project

1. Diagnosis of Energy and Food Situation in LA and AF & Integrated analysisCoordinator: Luiz Augusto Horta Nogueira (UNIFEI)

– Why should Latin American and African countries get involved in a global effort to increase biofuels production?

– How can countries in LA and AF implement the necessary actions: the cases of

Colombia, Guatemala, South Africa and Mozambique?

– What is the present and expected future situation of energy and food security in Latin America and Africa?

– Integrating analysis for AL and AF

2. Determining the Physical Potential for Sugarcane Ethanol Production in Latin America and Africa

Coordinator: André Nassar (ICONE)

– Identify potential areas to sugarcane production in African and Latin American countries; (CTC team)

– Quantify the different production potential of sugarcane crops in these countries; (CTC team)

– Assess the land use impacts of biofuels production in Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, South Africa and Mozambique

– Use a Sugarcane Crop Model and Estimate Total Sugarcane Ethanol Production in LA and AF

LACAF project

3. Crop and Pasture Productivity, Improving Soil Fertility and Needs for FertilizersCoordinator: Heitor Cantarella (APTA/IAC)

– Analyzing the Increase Productivity in Agriculture: Pasture Productivity (Geraldo Martha), Sugarcane Expansion with Pasture Integration

– Analyzing the Possible Impact of Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning

– Estimating the Future Inorganic Fertilizer Demand and Recycling Nutrients in Sugarcane Ethanol Production

LACAF project

4. Production Models & InnovationCoordinator: Manoel Regis Lima Verde Leal (CTBE)

– Defining Possible Production Models for LA and AF

– Analyzing the Possible Impact of Advanced Technologies in Conversion: Celullosic ethanol, energy cane

LACAF project

5. Assessing the Constraints and Benefits of sugarcane ethanol production in LA and AFCoordinator: José Antonio Scaramucci (NIPE/UNICAMP)

– Agriculture and energy issues analysis in Latin America and Africa

– Scenarios for future demand of food and its impacts on land use

– Economic analysis of the advancement of sugarcane bioenergy in Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, Guatemala, South Africa and Mozambique

– Impacts on socio-economic development from Sugarcane Ethanol Production Latin America and Africa: the cases of Colombia, South Africa and Mozambique

LACAF project

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Sugarcane Ethanol in Latin America

Colombia:• The world’s second-largest sugarcane ethanol producer• Governmental regulations established a mandatory blend (E10)• Current ethanol production covers 85% of the local needs • Colombia has a great potential for sugarcane ethanol production in the East part of the country (expected lower yield than Cauca Valley) Guatemala:• Number one producer of sugarcane in Central America • In 2009, Guatemala produced 2.38 million tons of raw sugar, of which 1.3 million tons were exported• 5 out of the 14 sugar mills are also producing ethanol, whose production reached 265 million liters in 2008• All of the ethanol is exported, mainly to Europe and the U.S. • The domestic market for biofuels consumption has not been developed yet

Sources: IICA (2009); USDA (2010)

Role in the LACAF Project Role in the GSB projectAndré Nassar (ICONE, Brazil)

Coordinator of Subproject 2: Land Use and determining LA and AF Bioenergy potential

Coordinator task 1:Current Land Inventory a) Global land use inventory b) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation

Edgar Beauclair (Esalq/USP, Brazil)

Sugarcane Model Coordinator task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3:Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation

Jeremy Woods (IC, UK) Food Security, Food VS Biofuels Coordinator task 7:Food security Analysis of conditions under which bioenergy positively and negatively impacts food security

Heitor Cantarella (APTA, Brazil)

Coordinator of Subproject 3: Fertilizer Demand

Coordinator task 8:Fertilizer demand and soil fertilitya) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects

Collaboration LACAF-GSB Coordination of tasks

Keith Kleine (ORNL, USA) Land Use and determining LA and AF Bioenergy potential

Analyst task 1:Current Land Inventory a) Global land use inventory b) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation

Geraldo Martha (Embrapa, Brazil)

Pasture Productivity Analyst task 2:2. Pasture productivitya) Global pasture productivity model and estimation of the pasture yield gapb) Local (e.g. country-scale) validation

Miguel Taube (UNISOMA, Brazil)

Sugarcane-Beef Integration Analyst task 4:Changed animal feed rations Analysis of 2 to 4 examples

Luis Pinto (UNISOMA, Brazil)

Sugarcane-Beef Integration Analyst task 4:Changed animal feed rations Analysis of 2 to 4 examples

Fabio Marin (Embrapa, Brazil)

Sugarcane Model Analyst task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3:Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation

Collaboration LACAF-GSB Analysts of tasks

Durval Dourado (Esalq/USP, Brazil)

Sugarcane Model Analyst task 6: Energy crop productivity Multi-crop global energy crop productivity model Analyst task 3:Double crops a) Global double crop productivity model b) Local validation

Raffaella Rossetto (IAC/APTA, Brazil)

Fertilizer Demand, Nutrient recycling Analyst task 8:Fertilizer demand and soil fertilitya) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects

Oscar Braunbeck (CTBE, Brazil)

Advanced Technologies in Agriculture: precision agriculture, no-till, soil conditioning

Analyst task 8:Fertilizer demand and soil fertilitya) Comparative analysis of fertilizer requirements for various energy crops b) More detailed analysis of specific aspects

Paulo Sérgio Graziano Magalhães (UNICAMP, Brazil)



Antonio Bonomi (CTBE, Brazil)



Collaboration LACAF-GSB Analysts of tasks

Emile van Zyl (Stellenbosh University, South Africa)

Diagnosis and Integration in AF; Innovation

Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

José Rincon (IANAS, Colciencias, Colombia)

Diagnosis and Integration in LA Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

Luiz A. Horta Nogueira (UNIFEI, Brazil)

Coordinator of Subproject 1: Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF


Manoel Regis Leal (CTBE, Brazil)

Coordinator of Subproject 4: Production Models and Innovation


José Antonio Scaramucci (NIPE/UNICAMP, Brazil)

Coordinator of Subproject 5: Socio-Economic Evaluation


Edmar Luiz Fagundes de Almeida (UFRJ. Brazil)

Socio-Economic Evaluation Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

José Maurício S. Bento (Esalq/USP, Brazil)


Márcia Azanha (Esalq/USP, Brazil)


Collaboration LACAF-GSB Integrating Results

Jean-Claude Autrey (ISSCT, Mauritius)

Diagnosis and Integration in AF Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

Annie Chimphango (Stellenbosh University, South Africa)

Diagnosis and Integration in AF; socio-economic aspects


Francis Yamba (CEEEZ, Zambia)



Laurent Corcodel (ERCane, Reunion Island)



Francis Johnson (SEI, Sweden)



V. Kafarov (UIS, Colombia)

Diagnosis and Integration in LA Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

Frank Rosillo-Calle (IC, UK)

Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF


Alexandre Strapasson (IC, UK)

Diagnosis and Integration in LA and AF


Leonard Sebio (UNICAMP, Brazil)

Diagnosis and Integration in AF Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

Juan (UNICAMP, Brazil) Diagnosis and Integration in LA Participates in Integrating in global Bioenergy potential and constraints

Collaboration LACAF-GSB Integrating Results

LACAF/GSB/IANAS Collaboration

• Prof. José Rincón Martinez – Coordinator in Colombia and Guatemala

•Partners in Colombia:•Colciencias•CENICAÑA•Universidad Insustrial de Santander (Prof. V. Kafarov)•Fedebiocombustibles

•Partners in Guatemala:- CENGICAÑA

• GSB tasks (defined)• LACAF structure (defined)• LACAF Teams (defined)• LACAF – GSB Collaboration (defined) • IANAS Collaboration• Other countries ?• Meetings?

LACAF/GSB/IANAS Collaboration

• Lauched Sept 2010• 992 pages• 76 chapters• 139 authors• Publisher:• Ethanol PP Project:

Sugarcane Bioethanol: R&D for Productivity and Sustainability

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1st Brazilian Bioenergy Science & Technology Conference - BBEST

• Venue: Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil• August 14-18, 2011

http://www.bbest.org.br/

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Bioenergy strategy: the LACAF/GSB project