BHFC, 13th February, 2013

7/29/2019 BHFC, 13th February, 2013

1/13

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

EBITDA 142 239 (40.5) 194 (26.8)

EBITDA margin (%) 21.2 25.4 (424)bp 22.4 (124)bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported adisappointing performance for 3QFY2013 led by severe weakness in thedomestic as well as the export markets which resulted in a 32.4% yoy (19.1% qoq)decline in volumes. Consequently, the standalone revenue posted a significant

decline of 28.5% yoy (22.5% qoq) to `673cr. The domestic and export revenuesregistered a decline of 22.1% (9.3% qoq) and 33.2% yoy (33.5% qoq) respectivelyon account of a sharp decline in commercial vehicle (CV) sales in India andexport markets. Further, slowdown in capital spending in the power, mining andoil and gas sectors also impacted the non auto business. On the operating front,margins contracted 424bp yoy (124bp qoq) to 21.2% which was below ourestimates of 23.3% primarily due to lower utilization levels (~50% in domesticoperations as against ~65% in 2QFY2013). Hence operating profit and net profitregistered a sharp decline of 40.5% (26.8% qoq) and 53.9% yoy (48.5% qoq)respectively.

BHFCs overseas subsidiaries continued with theirpoor performance, driven by declining utilization levels (in the range of 45-50%)

due to the severe downturn in the heavy truck market in China and demandslowdown in Europe. While the wholly owned subsidiaries (ex China) registered anet loss of `6cr; China operations registered a loss of `12cr. BHFC has shut downits US operations completely and is planning to shift the capacity to India.

Guiding for the future, the Management has indicatedthat the near term outlook remains challenging for the company given theweakness in the domestic markets and subdued market conditions in China andEurope. Further, rationalization of production levels and inventory destocking bythe OEMs in the domestic and export markets will also impact the performancegoing ahead. Consequently, we lower our earnings estimates by 28.8%/19.7%for FY2013E/14E. Nevertheless, we believe that the recent underperformance ofthe stock (down ~20% over the last two months) factors in most of the concernsstated above. At `224, BHFC is trading at 12x FY2014E earnings.

% chg 54.8 23.4 (4.9) 12.3

% chg (728.5) 40.7 (24.2) 39.2

EBITDA (%) 15.3 15.9 14.4 15.2

P/E (x) 17.9 12.7 16.8 12.0

P/BV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9

RoE (%) 17.1 19.8 13.6 16.9

RoCE (%) 12.9 15.1 11.0 14.3

EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.6 7.1 5.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP of February 11, 2013

CMP `224

Target Price `242

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code BHFC@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 42.1

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 32.0

FII / NRIs / OCBs 9.8

Indian Public / Others 16.1

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 4.2 9.7 20.5

Bharat Forge (14.5) (26.5) (9.9)

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

2.0

19,461

5,898

BFRG.BO

Auto Ancillary

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

5,212

1.0

347/208

49,602

Net Debt (`cr) 1,381

022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

February 12, 2013


2/13

Bharat Forge | 3QFY2013 Result Update

February 12, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Financial performance (Standalone)

Consumption of RM 290 412 (29.6) 378 (23.2) 1,073 1,209 (11.2)(% of Sales) 43.2 43.8 43.6 43.3 44.6

Staff Costs 63 63 0.3 64 (2.5) 196 191 2.4

(% of Sales) 9.3 6.6 7.4 7.9 7.0

Manufacturing expenses 133 164 (19.1) 162 (18.2) 467 470 (0.6)

(% of Sales) 19.7 17.4 18.7 18.8 17.3

Other Expenses 44 63 (29.7) 69 (35.2) 169 173 (2.6)

(% of Sales) 6.6 6.7 7.9 6.8 6.4

OPM (%) 21.2 25.4 22.4 (5.5) 23.1 24.6

Interest 36 47 (23.1) 29 25.5 120 116 3.4

Depreciation 57 56 2.8 55 3.5 169 161 4.9

Other Income 19 11 71.8 26 (24.1) 73 52 41.4

Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - (11) - (11) - -

(% of Sales) 10.1 15.7 16.8 14.8 16.2

Provision for Taxation 21 44 (53.5) 43 (52.6) 111 133 (16.9)

(% of PBT) 30.2 30.0 29.7 30.2 30.2

Adj. PATM 7.1 11.0 10.6 9.9 11.3

Equity capital (cr) 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.6


Exhibit 2:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

EBITDA 142 203 (29.9)EBITDA margin (%) 21.2 23.3 (213)bp


For 3QFY2013, the standalone top-line

reported a significant decline of 28.5% yoy (22.5% qoq) to `673cr, which was

lower than our expectations of `871cr. The performance was impacted on account

of the severe weakness in the domestic as well as the export markets which

resulted in a volume decline of 32.4% yoy (19.1% qoq) to 37,483MT. The net

average realization however, registered a growth of 6.1% yoy as it benefitted from

the higher share of machining component (~50% of total sales as against ~45%

in 3QFY2012). The domestic and export revenues registered a decline of 22.1%

(9.3% qoq) and 33.2% yoy (33.5% qoq) respectively led by a sharp decline in

CV sales in India and export markets. Further, slowdown in capital spending in the


3/13


February 12, 2013 3

power, mining and oil and gas sectors also impacted the non auto business. The

non-auto business accounted for ~40% of sales and revenues for the business

stood at `230cr. The company witnessed significant decline in revenues across all

the geographies with the key markets of India, US and Europe experiencing adecline of 24%, 24.2% and 42.4% respectively.

Exhibit 3:Domestic revenue down 22.1% yoy


Exhibit 4:Export revenue down 33.2% yoy


Exhibit 5:Volume trend


Exhibit 6:Geographical break-up of revenue


On the operating front, margins

contracted 424bp yoy (124bp qoq) to 21.2% which was below our estimates of

23.3% primarily due to lower utilization levels. The utilization levels in the domestic

operations stood at ~50% as against ~65% in 2QFY2013. The manufacturing

expenses and other expenses declined sharply on an absolute basis by 19.1%

(18.2% qoq) and 29.7% yoy (35.2% qoq) respectively. However as a percentage of

sales, manufacturing expenditure rose significantly by 230bp yoy (100bp qoq) due

to sharp decline in top-line. Led by a significant fall in the top-line, the operating

profit declined by 40.5% yoy (26.8% qoq) to `142cr.

431 478 489 491 497 544 461 427 387

35.0 34.3

17.4

5.2

15.3 13.8

(5.6)

(13.0)

(22.1)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(`cr) Domestic revenue yoy change (RHS)

359 358 381 432 464 458 498 467 310

80.7

63.5 67.157.6

29.2 27.7 30.7

8.1

(33.2)

(40)(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(`cr) Export revenue yoy change (RHS)

48,11651,267 52,959

53,740 55,41257,242

51,077

46,35037,483

36.431.4

24.2

16.5 15.211.7

(3.6)

(13.8)

(32.4)

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.020.0

30.0

40.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(MT) Volume (tonnage) yoy change (%)

5256 56

53 5153

47 4642

2319 18

2125 24

27

36

2020 2124 23

2117

23

1513

5 4 3 4 45

3 3 3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%) India US Europe Others


4/13


February 12, 2013 4

Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin trend


Exhibit 8:Adj net profit down sharply


Led by lower-than-expected operatingperformance, the adjusted net profit registered a decline of 53.9% yoy (48.5%

qoq) to `48cr, which was lower than our expectations of `89cr.

Exhibit 9:Subsidiary performance

Operating profit 26 (9) 29 7 (10.0) (240.3) 17 7 53.2 (240.3)

EBITDA (%) 5.2 (5.6) 5.6 4.7 3.8 4.7

PBT (6) (22) 5 (2) - - (11) (2) - -

PATM (%) (1.1) (6.8) 0.2 (0.8) (2.0) (0.8)


BHFCs overseas subsidiaries continued with their

poor performance in 3QFY2013 as well. The wholly owned subsidiaries (WoS)

posted a disappointing result with the top-line registering a decline of 2.2% yoy

and bottom-line posting a loss of `6cr as against a profit of `1cr in 3QFY2012.

The China JV posted a net loss of `12cr during the quarter. The subsidiaries

performance continues to be impacted due to the lower utilization levels (in the

range of 45-50%) caused by downturn in the heavy truck market in China and

decline in demand in Europe. BHFC has shut down its US operations completely

and is planning to shift the capacity to India.

24.3 24.0 24.3 24.0 25.4 25.7 25.1 22.4 21.2

46.9 45.9 46.4 46.7 44.8 44.4 44.2 44.4 44.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.040.0

45.0

50.0

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%) EBITDA margin RM cost/net sales

83 101 97 106 103 126 105 92 48

10.6

12.311.4 11.7 11.0

12.8

11.210.6

7.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)


5/13


February 12, 2013 5

Conference Call Key highlights

According to the Management, the demand environment in 4QFY2013 islikely to remain subdued as OEMs across the world are rationalizing

production levels and focusing on inventory de-stocking.

The capacity utilization level in India remains at ~50%; while in Europe andChina it stands at ~65% and ~45% respectively.

BHFC has initiated a series of measures aimed at controlling costs andproductivity improvements; full benefit of which is likely to flow in the coming

quarters.

The non-auto business accounted for ~40% of the standalone revenues in3QFY2013. Exports form ~50% of non-auto revenues. The slowdown in

construction and mining activities world-wide has impacted export

performance of the non-auto business.

At the standalone level, the gross debt of the company stands at ~`1,900cr.Cash levels stand at ~`700cr. BHFC has ~`200cr debt at the subsidiary level.

The machining-mix for 3QFY2013 stood at ~50% vs ~45% in 3QFY2012. The Management has stated that there is a lack of clarity on how the demand

will shape up in the near term.

According to the company, the truck production in China has declined by over50%. Also the construction activity in China is down significantly (operating at

levels of ~10% of industry capacity).

Due to improved efficiencies and cost rationalization; the break-even level forthe domestic operations has been lowered to ~30% levels.


6/13


February 12, 2013 6

Investment arguments

BHFC, being a market leaderin the CV space for products such as crankshaft, axle beams and connecting

rods, with an ~90% market share, has been able to register robust growth

over the last two years. However, with slowdown in the domestic commercial

vehicle segment we expect the companys domestic operations to post a

slightly subdued growth in FY2013.

BHFCs international operations posted losses (pre-tax) in

FY2010 due to a decline in demand and high operational costs. However,

restructuring exercise and operational efficiencies led to a strong turnaround

in the Chinese JV (FAW-BF) and other subsidiaries in FY2012. Nonetheless,

the subsidiaries are again posting losses as there has been a demandslowdown in China, US and Europe. We believe that revival in demand is the

key for the overseas subsidiaries as it will boost the capacity utilization levels,

which in turn would lead to higher profitability.

BHFC intends toincrease its non-automotive revenue to 40% (~35% of consolidated revenue in

FY2012) by FY2013. To achieve this goal, BHFC has set up an 80MT hammer

(40,000 TPA capacity) and a ring rolling (25,000 TPA capacity) facility in

Baramati in addition to the existing 60,000 TPA non-auto facility in Mundhwa.

We expect BHFC to benefit from new investments by various players in the

power, oil and gas and capital goods sectors, leading to a strong demand fornon-automotive forgings.

Outlook and valuation

Guiding for the future, the Management has indicated that the near term outlook

remains challenging for the company, given the weakness in the domestic markets

and subdued market conditions in China and Europe. Further, rationalization of

production levels and inventory destocking by the OEMs in the domestic and

export markets will also impact the performance going ahead. As a result, we

revise our consolidated revenue estimates for FY2013/14 downwards by

11.6%/11.3%. Further, we also lower our operating margin estimates to accountfor lower utilization levels in the domestic operations and also at the overseas

subsidiaries level. Consequently, we lower our earnings estimates by 28.8%/19.7%

for FY2013E/14E.

Exhibit 10:Change in estimates

OPM (%) 15.5 15.7 14.4 15.2 (110)bp (55)bp



7/13


February 12, 2013 7

At `224, BHFC is trading at 12x FY2014E earnings. We believe that the recent

underperformance of the stock (down ~20% over the last two months) factors in

most of the concerns stated above.

Exhibit 11:Angel vs consensus forecast

EPS (`) 13.3 18.6 13.7 18.3 (2.8) 1.7


Exhibit 12:One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


Exhibit 13:One-year forward EV/EBITDA chart


Exhibit 14:Auto Ancillary Recommendation summary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 299 323 8.1 16.2 13.9 10.2 9.1 32.9 29.1 30.8

Automotive Axle^ Neutral 363 - - 12.2 14.8 5.8 6.3 17.5 13.2 (19.7)

Bosch India# Accumulate 9,023 9,570 6.1 28.3 22.8 17.8 13.9 18.1 18.8 8.0

Exide Industries Accumulate 122 131 6.9 20.9 15.6 11.2 8.1 15.4 18.2 20.2

FAG Bearings# Buy 1,420 1,807 27.3 13.9 11.1 8.6 6.3 21.0 21.7 9.8

Motherson Sumi* Neutral 191 - - 23.8 18.1 9.2 7.5 22.9 24.7 56.2

Subros Buy 27 35 31.9 8.0 5.3 4.2 3.7 7.2 10.1 0.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Consolidated

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Apr-

04

Dec-0

4

Sep-0

5

Jun-0

6

Mar-

07

Nov-0

7

Aug-0

8

May-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Oct-10

Ju

l-11

Apr-

12

Jan-1

3

(` cr) EV (`cr) 5x 10x 15x 20x

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Ju

l-05

Mar-

06

Dec-0

6

Aug-0

7

Apr-

08

Dec-0

8

Aug-0

9

Apr-

10

Dec-1

0

Aug-1

1

May-1

2

Jan-1

3

(x) One-yr forward EV/EBITDA Three-yr average EV/EBITDA


8/13


February 12, 2013 8

Company background

Bharat Forge, a global forging conglomerate, is the largest exporter of automotive

components from India and a leading chassis component manufacturer in the

world. The company manufactures a wide range of safety and critical components

for passenger cars, SUVs, LCVs, MHCVs and tractors through its facilities spread

across 11 locations globally - India (4), Germany (3), China (2), U.S. (1) and

Sweden (1). BHFC also produces forged and machined components for non-

automotive industries, such as power generation, marine, oil and gas, railways

and construction. The automotive industry currently contributes ~75% to

the company's consolidated revenue; although through diversification BHFC

expects the share of the automotive industry's revenue to fall to 55%

by FY2013.


9/13


February 12, 2013 9

Profit and loss statement (Consolidated)

% chg 2.5 (30.3) 54.8 23.4 (4.9) 12.3

Net raw material costs 2,307 1,578 2,427 2,913 2,807 3,119

Other mfg costs 872 645 911 1,193 1,165 1,288

Employee expenses 709 524 646 791 759 855

Other 463 334 325 387 382 429

% chg (44.6) (43.2) 280.4 28.1 (13.7) 18.1

(% of total op. income) 7.6 6.2 15.3 15.9 14.4 15.2

Depreciation & amortization 252 245 255 302 330 344

% chg (74.5) - - 32.9 (23.6) 26.7

(% of total op. income) 2.3 (1.2) 10.3 11.1 8.9 10.0

Interest and other charges 129 130 153 184 173 146

Other income 124 89 66 93 94 102

% chg (77.1) - - 38.6 (25.1) 39.2

Extraordinary items (8) (17) (1) 3 - -

Tax 69 12 140 180 135 189

(% of PBT) 62.8 (18.0) 32.0 29.9 30.0 30.0

Minority interest (MI) (18) (13) 7 7 5 7

% chg (78.2) - - 40.7 (24.2) 39.2

(% of total op. income) 1.4 (1.4) 5.7 6.5 5.2 6.5

% chg (78.2) - - 40.7 (24.2) 39.2


10/13


February 12, 2013 10

Balance sheet statement (Consolidated)

Equity share capital 45 45 47 47 47 47Reserves & surplus 1,599 1,418 1,906 2,144 2,347 2,671

Minority interest 95 78 154 196 196 196

Total loans 2,191 2,253 1,886 2,419 1,919 1,619

Deferred tax liability 184 84 132 89 89 89

Other long term liabilities - - 1 1 1 1

Long term provisions - - 80 85 85 85

Gross block 4,028 4,135 4,501 4,999 5,498 5,736

Less: Acc. depreciation 1,560 1,727 2,038 2,358 2,688 3,032

Capital work-in-progress 322 199 201 524 275 287

Investments

Long term loans and advances - - 325 511 511 511

Other noncurrent assets - - 37 71 71 71

Cash 488 598 396 672 667 739

Loans & advances 720 658 426 492 517 543

Other 1,323 1,162 1,565 2,036 1,871 2,173

Current liabilities 1,208 1,419 1,468 2,355 2,415 2,697


11/13



Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Profit before tax 110 (65) 437 600 451 629

Depreciation 252 245 255 302 330 344Change in working capital (298) 435 (123) 350 195 (52)

Others 390 28 (22) (277) - -

Other income (124) (89) (66) (93) (94) (102)

Direct taxes paid (69) (12) (140) (180) (135) (189)

(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (666) 16 (368) (821) (250) (250)

(Inc.)/Dec. in investments 299 (273) 12 (126) 12 (2)

Other income 124 89 66 93 94 102

Issue of equity 2 100 (267) 67 - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 536 62 (366) 859 (500) (300)

Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 92 26 27 95 108 108

Others (479) (453) 354 (189) - -

Inc./(Dec.) in cash 170 109 (201) 275 (5) 72


12/13



Key ratios

P/E (on FDEPS) 84.9 - 17.9 12.7 16.8 12.0P/CEPS 15.7 25.1 9.5 7.3 8.1 6.7

P/BV 3.0 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9

Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8

EV/Sales 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8

EV/EBITDA 19.2 32.3 8.3 6.6 7.1 5.6

EV / Total Assets 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2

EPS (Basic) 2.6 (2.8) 12.5 17.6 13.3 18.6

EPS (fully diluted) 3.0 (2.1) 12.5 17.6 13.3 18.6

Cash EPS 14.3 8.9 23.5 30.6 27.5 33.4

DPS 1.0 1.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0

Book Value 73.8 65.7 83.9 94.1 102.8 116.7

EBIT margin 2.3 (1.2) 10.3 11.1 8.9 10.0

Tax retention ratio 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7

ROIC (Post-tax) 1.2 (1.4) 10.0 12.0 8.9 11.8

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 2.5 6.9 5.0 6.0 5.6 5.8

Leverage (x) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

Operating ROE 0.1 (9.6) 13.8 15.7 10.6 13.4

ROCE (Pre-tax) 2.8 (1.0) 12.9 15.1 11.0 14.3

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 3.0 (1.2) 13.7 16.1 13.2 16.9

ROE 4.0 (3.0) 17.1 19.8 13.6 16.9

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2

Inventory / Sales (days) 59 80 53 59 72 67

Receivables (days) 47 58 45 46 46 46

Payables (days) 66 124 95 127 128 128

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 53 69 33 20 4 (0)

Net debt to equity 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2

Net debt to EBITDA 4.7 6.8 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.5

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.8 (0.3) 3.4 3.8 3.1 4.6


13/13


F b 12 2013 13

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

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fundamentals.

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Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bharat Forge

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

BHFC, 13th February, 2013