BG Lt. Col. Inge Lindsaar Estonian Police and Border Guard Board INFORMATION GATHERING, RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES (IN BORDER MANAGEMENT)

BG Lt. Col. Inge LindsaarEstonian Police and Border Guard Board

INFORMATION GATHERING, RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK ANALYSIS

METHODOLOGIES (IN BORDER MANAGEMENT)

INGE LINDSAARTHEME 2

MARCH 6, 2015

I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO RISK ANALYSIS AND THREAT ASSESSMENT IN BORDER MANAGEMENT

ACTIVITIES IN 3rd

COUNTRIES

COOPERATION ACROSS BORDERACTIVITIES

AT BORDERINLAND

ACTIVITIES

BORDER CHECKS

BORDER SURVEILLANCE

RISK ANALYSIS

3: “FOUR-TIER ACCESS CONTROL MODEL”

2: DETECTION AND INVESTIGATION OF SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL (cross-border) CRIME

4: INTER-AGENCY COOPERATION

5: DEVELOPMENT OF BORDER 5: DEVELOPMENT OF BORDER RELATED POLICY ANDRELATED POLICY AND

LEGISLATIONLEGISLATION1: BORDER CONTROL

EU IBM

RISK ANALYSIS

•…IS DEFINED AS THE SYSTEMATIC EXAMINATION OF THREATS, VULNERABILITYIES AND IMPACTS, THE OUTCOME OF WHICH IS RECORDED IN THE FORM OF A RISK ASSESSMENT.•CIRAM- EU BEST PACTICES IN BORDER MANAGEMENT

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RISK ANALYSIS IN BORDER MANAGEMENT

RISK ANALYSIS SHOULD ENSURE INTERNAL SECURITY AND THE SECURITY OF BORDERS…IS THE KEY TOOL TO:• ENSURE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES FOR BORDER CHECKS AND SURVEILLANCE;•ENSURE EFFICIENT, UNIFORM LEVEL OF CONTROL ALONG THE BORDERS;•ENSURE AGREED STANDARDS FOR INFORMATION GATHERING IN BORDER MANAGEMENT.

RISK ANALYSIS

FOR PREVENTION AND DETECTION OF-ILLEGAL MIGRATION-CROSS-BORDER ORGANISED CRIME, INCL

SMUGGLING OF WEAPONS, EXPLOSIVES-TRAFFICKING IN HUMAN BEINGS-TERRORISTS MOVEMENTS-OTHER CROSS-BORDER CRIMINALITY

DEFINITIONS: INTELLIGENCE

IN BORDER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, INTELLIGENCE IS :ANY INFORMATION, RECEIVED OR GENERATED THAT IS RELATED TO ONE OF THE COMPONENT OF THE RISK, i.e. RELATED TO THREAT, VULNERABILITY OR IMPACT.

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INTELLIGENCE PROCESS

• COLLECTION- MUST BE PLANNED AND FOCUSED, NEEDS TO BE DIRECTED AT A TARGET (PERSON, GROUP) OR TOPIC. PLANNING TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE INFORMATION THAT IS ALREADY AVAILABLE AND EXAMINES THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLLECTION TO FILL GAPS IN THE INFORMATION.

EVALUATION-ASSESSING THE TRUTHFULNESS AND RELIABILITY OF SOURCE AND

INFORMATION


• COLLATION- SIFTING OUT OF SPURIOUS, NON-RELEVANT, AND INCORRECT INFORMATION. ORDERLY ARRANGEMENT OF THE REMAINING INFORMATION;

• USE OF COMPUTERISED SYSTEMS


• ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION-WITHOUT ANALYSIS, A PIECE OF INFORMATION REMAINS A PIECE OF INFORMATION!

• INTERPRETATION- KOWLEDGE+NEW INFORMATION. NB! DETERMINE THE BALANCE BETWEEN FACT AND SPECULATION! CRITICAL THINKING AND RE-APPRAISAL


• REPORTING- INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ARE THE CULMINATION OF ALL FUNCTIONS IN THE PROCESS. THEY STATE THE FINDINGS OF THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS.

• CLEAR CONNECTION BETWEEN THE FACTS AND JUDGEMENTS, AND CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS


• DISSEMINATION-DISTRIBUTION• PRIMARY ROLE-PROVIDE INFORMATION, INSIGHT,

AND LEAD TO INTERVENTION!• DISSEMINATION IS A TECHNICAL TERM USED

INTELLIGENCE TO DESCRIBE THE ACT OF DISTRIBUTING CREDIBLE AND TIMELY INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION TO OFFICIALS AND „CONSUMERS“ INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ORGANIZATION

INTELLIGENCE PROCESSREVIEWS-1.EFFICIENCY MEASUREMENT- HOW THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS’ WORK WAS DONE;2.EFFECTIVENESS- HOW THE INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS ASSISTED THE READER AND DECISION-MAKER. IT RELIES ON HONEST EXCHENGE AND DISCUSSION BETWEEN THE INTELLIGENCE STAFF AND READERS.MAIN QUESTION-WAS IT READABLE AND TIMELY.

3. MONITORING SYSTEMS

• FRAN• MONTHLY DATA ON INDICATORS RELATED TO

IRREGULAR MIGRATION• DATA AIMED AT MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES• NOT PRIMARILY ADDRESSED AT STATISTICAL

TREATMENT: EASY TO GATHER AND ALLOW FOR COMPARISON AND TREND ANALYSIS.

2. DIFFERENT MODELS THAT ARE BEING USED (CIRAM)

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THREAT

…LOAD OF FORCE ACTING ON THE BORDERS.•IS CHARACTERISED BY ITS MAGNITUDE AND LIKELYHOOD.•THE ANALYST SHOULD DESCRIBE WHICH PROCESSES OR FACTORS BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE STATE AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE AND THE LIKELYHOOD OF THE THREAT.

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IDENTIFYING OF THREATS• THREAT SHOULD BE DESCRIBED IN NEUTRAL,

SIMPLE AND SHORT WORDING STYLE;• THE DESCRIPTION OF THE THREAT TYPICALLY

INCLUDES:- THE DESCRIPTION OF MODUS OPERANDI; - THE PERPETRATOR GOALS, MOTIVES AND

CAPABILITIES (WHO, WHEN, WHERE,HOW MANY);

- THE TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS;- THE PUSH FACTORS

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TERMS

THREATRISK

PROBABILITY

INCIDENT

IMPACT/HARM

PRIMARY HARM

SECONDARY HARM

COLLATERAL HARM

HARM

THREAT ASSESSMENT

• IN CIRAM, MOST THREATS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BORDER AREAS OR BORDER TYPES

• SOME THREATS CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH PROCESSES FOR CHECKS AND SURVEILLANCE

• THREAT ASSESSMENT AS SPECIFIC AS POSSIBLE –BY TYPES OF BORDERS.

THREAT ASSESSMENT:MAGNITUDE AND LIKELIHOOD

Among the first factors that will affect the magnitude and the likelyhood at the borders, are:

•GEOGRAPHICAL ATTRIBUTES OF THE BORDER AREAS;•THE EQUIPMENT IN PLACE (can be referred as border permeability)

MEASURING THE THREAT: EXAMPLES

• IMMIGRATION: THE NUMBER OF MIGRANTS ILLEGALLY CROSSING

THE BORDER;THE NUMBER OF REFUSED ENTRY.• DRUG CONTROL:KILOGRAMS OF DRUGS SEIZED.• COUNTERTERRORISM:PATHS THAT TERRORISTS COULD USE TO ENTER

THE COUNTRY;THE NUMBER OF SUSPECTED TERRORISTS.


IMPACT - PROBABILITY

HIGH IMPACT/HARM

LOW IMPACT/HARM

LESS LIKELY VERY LIKELY

IMPACT

• BORDER AND INTERNAL SECURITY• ABILITY TO MANAGE LEGITIMATE PASSENGER

FLOW AT BORDER• HUMANIATRIAN IMPACT

Identifications of threats (Optional algorithm)

1.Analytical unit collects all incidents, data and information about main threats. First of all In this process we have to take in to consideration reliability and validity of the information to the threat. Secondly we have to consider probability and magnitude of threats and notice it in the report to decision makers. Another important way of thinking is to identify real and hypothetical ; approval and potential threat.

Example: Approval threat (risk) for outside border is illegal migration. Potential threat (risk) is terrorism. Hypothetical is cross border conveying of very large scale of mass infection.

EXAMPLE OF RISK MATRIXRISK NAME THREAT VULNERABILIT

YIMPACT RISK LEVEL

RISK 1 TDA HIGH LOW LOW LOW

RISK 2 IM HIGH HIGH LOW MEDIUM

RISK 3 VA LOW MEDIUM HIGH HIGH

THREAT MATRIX FOR BORDER SECURITYIDENTIFIED THREATS FOR UPCOMING PERIOD OF X

THREAT HIGH MODERATE NORMAL LOWILLEGAL BORDER CROSSING

IRREGULAR MIGRATION

SMUGGLING (EXCISE GOODS)

SMUGGLING (DRUGS)

SMUGGLING (WEAPONS)

SMUGGLING (VEHICLES etc.)

GENERAL CROSS-BORDER CRIME

TERRORISM PROBABILITY GRADE (PG)CertainAlmost certain, very likelyPossibleUnlikely

Massive, extensive,

exceptional organised or

spontanous influx

Periodical or constant organised

and facilitated attempts by

individuals and/or groups

Single or not frequent

incidents/attemptsby persons or

groups

No incidentsRear or single

incidents

THREAT LEVEL

MAGNITUDE-EXTENT-FREQUENCY

Change from X-1

CASE STUDY BASING ON CIRAM STANDARDS

SMUGGLING OF HUMAN BEINGS: WHAT HAS TO BE IDENTIFIED,

HOW TO DISMANTLE THIS RISK?

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1. MODUS OPERANDI OF TRAVEL, CROSSING, AVOIDING DETECTION, DOCUMENTS

• VNM network facilitating arrival, stay and employment in Russian Federation

• ARM OGC organising travel to RUS-EST border and finding „scout“ to take “shipment“ across the border

• Legal entry and stay in first transit country (Russian Federation)

• Recruiter for ARM OGC in Estonia – finding „taxi“ drivers nationals and residents of Estonia

• Couriers transporting „shipment“ from EST border across the Baltic countries until Poland

2. WHO, WHERE, WHEN; Month Date BGB

BorderSection

BGS Border typeSize ofgroup

December 26.12.2011 Lõuna EST-RUS Luhamaa Land 8March 15.03.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Saatse Land 5June 14.06.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 4September 4.09.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 9October 26.10.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 10October 29.10.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 6November 1.11.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 6November 18.11.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 6December 19.12.2012 Lõuna EST-RUS Värska Land 6February 3.02.2013 Lõuna EST-RUS Luhamaa Land 27April 17.04.2013 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 6June 23.06.2013 Lõuna EST-RUS Saatse Land 6October 2.10.2013 Ida EST-RUS Punamäe Lake 8October 13.10.2013 Lõuna EST-RUS Piusa Land 8November 23.11.2013 Lõuna EST-RUS Värska Land 3

PROFILE OF VNM NATIONALS• Jumpers” - short stay (‘jump’ within 2 months and/or less) on tourist or

business visas and quick transit via RUS (see photo 1 and 2 below).

• “Residents” – legal entry, stay and/or work (illegally) in RUS over 3 months

• Age : 18-30 y.o (many cases claiming to be minors !)• Gender: >90% male

• Other: Change of statements during the proceedings (names, age etc.)

3.TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS • December 2011:

1st detected and identified VNM group

• December2011- November 2013Active „season“ of cross border movement

of VNM groups at EST-RUS border

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF GROUPS 30 + GROUPS (200 + persons)

(calculation with detection rate 50%)

4. PUSH FACTORS

• SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL SITUATION IN VIETNAM

• VERY FEW JOB OPPORTUNITIES WITH DECENT INCOME

• TIGHTENING OF IMMIGRATION RULES IN RUSSIA ( INTENCIFIED RAIDS BY LEA’s)

• RISE OF RACIAL HATERATE

4. PULL FACTORS

• LARGE VNM COMMUNITIES IN EUROPE (POL, DEU, FRA)

• ADVERTISEMENT OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES

• MIGRATION AMNESTIES

• AVAILABILITY OF NUMEROUS SMUGGLING NETWORKS

CASE STUDY 2: THREAT ASSESSMENT : POSSIBLE RIOTS,

TERRORISM , EXTREMISM-HOW TO ACT AT BORDERS?

THREAT ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE: VISIT OF A HEAD OF GOVERNMENT X -BRIEFING

• BASING ON 2 DOCUMENTS– THREAT ASSESSMENT (14.08.20XX)– RISK ANALYSIS FOR COMING PERIOD (WEEK)- (29.08.20XX)

• IDENTIFIED 6 THREATS:1) TERRORISM2) EXTREMISM3) RIOTS4) PROVOCATIONS5) ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION6) CROSS-BORDER CRIMINALITY

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Kindel KÕRGE

Peaaegu kindel MÕÕDUKAS

Võimalik TAVALINE

Vähetõenäoline MADAL

OHUTASETÕENÄOSUSE ASTE

LEGEND OF THREAT MATRIX:

GENERAL ASSESSMENT: TERRORISM /

EXTREMISM/RIOTS/PROVOCATIONS

Why such assessment?•Time of the visit was announced in a very short notice •Visa requirement for 3rd country nationals who probably will plan possible activities •Unpredicatble actions by EU nationals or Schengen visa holders •Possible threat of crossing the border outside BCP-s

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THREATS IN BCP-S AND THEIR LEVEL INTERNAL BORDERS EXTERNAL BORDERS

LEVEL OF THREAT LEVEL OF PROBABILITY LEVEL OF THREAT LEVEL OF

PROBABILITYTerrorism Normal Possible Normal Possible Riots, provocations Medium Almost certain Normal Possible

GENERAL ASSESSMENT: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION / CROSS-BORDER

CRIMINALITY

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THREATS IN BCPS-S AND THE LEVELINTERNAL BORDERS EXTERNAL BORDERS

LEVEL OF THREAT LEVEL OF PROBABLITY LEVEL OF THREAT LEVEL OF

PROBABILITYILLEGAL IMMIGRATION MEDIUM Kindel MEDIUM CERTAINILLEGAL BORDER CROSSING LOW Võimalik LOW POSSIBLESMUGGLING OF STOLEN VEHICLES - - NORMAL ALMOST CERTAINSMUGGLING OF GOODS - - NORMAL CERTAINSMUGGLING OF DRUGS - - NORMAL POSSIBLESMUGGLING OF WEAPONS - - LOW POSSIBLEOTHER CROSS-BORDER CRIMINALITY NORMAL Peaaegu kindel NORMAL ALMOST CERTAIN

WHY SUCH ASSESSMENT?•EVENTS IN 2014 AT BORDERS AND IN NEARBY COUNTRIES •ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS CROSS THE BORDERS BY CAR AND AT MAIN ROADS •INCREASE OF NUMBER OF PERSONS WITHOUT VISAS TRANSITING IN THE REGION •TRANSITING ILLEGAL MIGRATION •CROSS-BORDER CRIMINALITY IN THE REGION

3. KEY PRINCIPLES, TOOLS, ELEMENTS AND STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVED

KEY PRINCIPLES• COOPERATION WITH POLICE, SECURITY

POLICE AND CUSTOMS AND OTHER BORDER SECURITY AUTHORITIES IS NEEDED

• NEED TO DEVELOP THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE CAPABILITIES OF THE BORDER CONTROL AUTHORITIES: ROLE, RESPONSIBILITIES, RESOURCES, KNOWLEDGE, INFORMATION FLOW AND DECISION-TAKING, STANDARDS, REFERENCE MODELS.

KEY PRINCIPLES :MONITORING THE SITUATION AT BORDERS

AIM- TO DETECT EMERGING THREATS OF CROSS-BORDER CRIMINALITY AT EARLY STAGE.


Situation picture

TOOLS: SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

Own resources Criminal trends

Global general situation

National general situation

Terrain & weather

Legislation

Inter agency cooperation

Ongoing and planned activities

Operational history

Criminal history

OTHER TOOLS

• ALERTS• EARLY WARNINGS• RISK PROFILES• RISK INDICATORS• REGISTERS• STAFF/RESOURCES• EQUIPMENT

STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVED: EXAMPLE

Ministry of Internal Affairs

Estonian Board of Border Guard

Police Board

Rescue Board

Security Police Board

Citizenship and Migration Board

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Local Authorities

Defence Forces

Customs Board

Correction Board

Maritime Board

Motor Vehicle Registration Centre

ELEMENTS: ACTIONS BASED ON PROPER ANALYSIS

1. Intelligence and Joint intelligence• targeted intelligence collection• joint databases• joint teams• joint targets and operations

2. Risk analysis• based on authorities’ specific task-related needs • exchange of information on the results of analysis

3. Co-operation in border management• Border Guard is the leading authority at the borders• Police , security police and customs co-operate in their area of

competence• and vice versa…• Use of each others’ databases and information• Use of INTERPOL databases


OPERATIONAL ART

Strategic intelligence Strategic risk analysis Strategic planning and guidance

Operational intelligence Operational risk analysis Operational planning and guidance

Tactical intelligence Tactical risk analysisTactical guidance and field

solutions


RISK ANALYSIS MODEL FOR BORDER CONTROL-Based on Schengen Borders Code and the Schengen Catalogue

RISK ANALYSIS MODEL FOR BORDER CONTROL-Based on Schengen Borders Code and the Schengen Catalogue

CRIME INTELLIGENCE RISK ANALYSIS BORDER CONTROL

STRATEGICSTRATEGIC

THREATS ON THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

•statistics•crime patterns•organisations

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS•geography, demography, traffic

•apprehension rate and total crime•clevel of ambition •gaps in controls?

OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT

•opplans•budgets

TACTICALTACTICAL

OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL

LOCAL INTELLIGENCE•filing data + analysis•.serving the products

PROFILING•modi operandi

•profiles, indicators,•registers

REAL TIME BORDER CONTROL

•border surveillance•border checks

THREATS AS PHENOMENA•statistics, trends

•underlying factors

LONG TERM SURVEILLANCE•risks and threats•potential change

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT•long term: shape

organisation•short term: effect on crime


USING RISK ANALYSISUSING RISK ANALYSIS

INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS

National levelNational level

BACKGROUND

SITUATION

SINGULAR EVENTS REAL TIME ACTIONS

local levellocal level

regional levelregional level

STRATEGYSTRATEGY

OPERATIVE LEADERSHIP

LEADING IS BASED ON INFORMATION!

WHO DOES WHAT IN COUNTER-TERRORISM ACTIVITIES?

NEW TACTICS OF ISIS: CA 1000 PERSONS PRETENDING TO BE ILLEGAL MIGRANTS CROSS ILLEGALLY STATE BORDERS. WHAT TO DO?

• WHICH AUTHORITY/ORGANISATION/BODY COLLECTS DATA/ INFORMATION?

• WHAT KIND OF DATA/INFORMATION IS COLLECTED?• WHO GIVES THE TASK FOR INFORMATION COLLECTION?• WHO CARRIES OUT ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION?• WHO IS ACTING?• HOW TO ACT?

TIME: 15 MIN

Documents

BG Lt. Col. Inge Lindsaar Estonian Police and Border Guard Board INFORMATION GATHERING, RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES (IN BORDER MANAGEMENT)