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Beyond'Vision'2016:'Final'and$Intermediate$Outcome$Indicators!Report!prepared!for!the!World!Bank!and!the!National!Strategy!Office!!Final!Report!!September!2015!!
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Table&of&Contents&
Table!of!Contents!.................................................................................................................................................!i!
List!of!Acronyms!and!Abbreviations!.........................................................................................................!iii!
Summary!Table:!Proposed!FOIs!and!IOIs!...............................................................................................!iv!
Introduction!..........................................................................................................................................................!1!
WellABeing!of!Citizens!......................................................................................................................................!1!
FOI!#!1:!Headcount!Poverty!Rate!...........................................................................................................!1!
FOI!#!2:!Multidimensional!Poverty!Index!(MPI)!.............................................................................!2!
FOI!#!3:!Gini!Coefficient!.............................................................................................................................!5!
FOI!#!4:!Citizens’!WellABeing!Index!.......................................................................................................!6!
Human!Development!Outcomes!..................................................................................................................!7!
FOI!#!5:!Life!Expectancy!at!Birth!............................................................................................................!7!
FOI!#!6:!HIV!Incidence!Rate!......................................................................................................................!8!
FOI!#!7:!Botswana’s!Results!in!TIMSS!..................................................................................................!8!
FOI!#!8:!Share!of!trained!workers!.........................................................................................................!9!
Economic!Growth!and!Job!Creation!........................................................................................................!11!
FOI!#!9:!GDP!Growth!Rate!......................................................................................................................!11!
FOI!#!10:!NonAdiamond!real!GDP!(%!growth)!..............................................................................!11!
FOI!#!11:!NonAdiamond!exports!(%!of!GDP)!..................................................................................!14!
FOI!#!12:!Unemployment!Rate!.............................................................................................................!14!
Sustainability!of!Development!...................................................................................................................!17!
FOI!#!13:!Annual!grain!import!as!a!share!of!annual!grain!consumption!...........................!17!
FOI!#!14:!Annual!abstraction!of!water!as!a!share!of!sustainable!yields!of!surface!water!and!groundwater.!.......................................................................................................................................!18!
FOI!#!15:!Annual!energy!import!as!a!share!of!annual!energy!consumption!....................!19!
FOI!#!16:!Emission!of!Greenhouse!Gas!(GHG)!...............................................................................!21!
FOI!#!17:!Biodiversity!..............................................................................................................................!23!
FOI!#!18:!Ranking!of!Botswana!in!the!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators!......................!23!
FOI!#!19:!Incidences!of!offences!against!persons!or!morality!................................................!24!
References!..........................................................................................................................................................!26!
Appendices!.........................................................................................................................................................!27!
Appendix!1:!Proposed!Gallup!World!Poll!questions!to!be!used!in!compiling!a!Citizens’!WellABeing!Index.!.......................................................................................................................................!27!
! ii!
Appendix!2:!Economic!Growth,!Unemployment!and!Employment!Elasticity!.................!29!
Appendix!3:!Foodgrain!Consumption!and!Production!..............................................................!31!
Appendix!4:!Energy!Production!and!Use!in!Botswana!..............................................................!35!
Appendix!5:!Greenhouse!Gas!Emissions!..........................................................................................!37!
!
!Acknowledgements!
This!report!was!prepared!by!Econsult!Botswana!(Pty)!Ltd,!for!the!World!Bank!and!the!National!Strategy!Office!(NSO).!The!lead!author!was!Keith!Jefferis,!with!assistance!from!Thabelo!Nemaorani.!!
Thanks!are!due!to!Chunlin!Zhang!(World!Bank),!Keamogetswe!Molebatsi!and!David!Sefawe!(NSO),!and!those!who!contributed!information,!advice!and!data.!Key!contributors!included!Statistics!Botswana,!the!Botswana!Police!Service,!the!Ministry!of!Environment!Wildlife!and!Tourism,!the!Departments!of!Energy!Affairs!and!Water!Affairs!(Ministry!of!Minerals,!Energy!and!Water!Resources),!UNAIDS,!and!the!Human!Resources!Development!Council.!!!
!
!
! !
! iii!
List&of&Acronyms&and&Abbreviations&&
AIDS! A! Acquired!Immune!Development!Syndrome!ANNS! A! Adjusted!Net!National!Savings!ARV! A! AntiAretroviral!BAIS! A! Botswana!AIDS!Impact!Survey!BCWIS! A! Botswana!Core!Welfare!Indicators!Survey!BIMTS! A! Botswana!International!Merchandise!Trade!Statistics!BoB! A! Bank!of!Botswana!BPS! A! Botswana!Police!Service!DEA! A! Department!of!Energy!Affairs!DWA! A! Department!of!Water!Affairs!FOI! A! Final!Outcome!Indicator!GDP! A! Gross!Domestic!Product!GHG! A! GreenAhouse!Gas!GNI! A! Gross!National!Income!GWP! A! Gallup!World!Poll!HDI! A! Human!Development!Index!HIES! A! Household!Income!and!Expenditure!Survey!HIV! A! Human!Immunodeficiency!Virus!HRDC! A! Human!Resources!Development!Council!!IIP! A! International!Investment!Position!IOI! A! Intermediate!Outcome!Indicator!ISPAAD! A!! Integrated!Support!Programme!for!Arable!Agriculture!
Development!IUCN! A! International!Union!for!the!Conservation!of!Nature!LEB! A! Life!Expectancy!at!Birth!LFS! A! Labour!Force!Survey!MEWT! A! Ministry!of!Environment,!Wildlife!and!Tourism!MFDP! A! Ministry!of!Finance!and!Development!Planning!MLHA! A! Ministry!of!Labour!and!Home!Affairs!MoA! A! Ministry!of!Agriculture!MPI! A! Multidimensional!Poverty!Index!NAMPAADD! A! National!Master!Plan!for!Arable!Agriculture!and!Dairy!
Development!NBS! A! National!Balance!Sheet!NER! A! Net!Enrolment!Rate!PDL! A! Poverty!Datum!Line!PHC! A! Population!and!Housing!Census!StB! A! Statistics!Botswana!TBD! A! To!be!determined!TFP! A! Total!Factor!Productivity!TIMSS! A! Trends!in!Mathematics!and!Science!Study!UNAIDS! A! Joint!United!Nations!Programme!on!HIV!and!AIDS!UNDP! A! United!Nations!Development!Programme!WUC! A! Water!Utilities!Corporation!
!iv!
Summary'Table:'Proposed'FO
Is'and'IOIs 1''
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
WELLCBEIN
G!OF!CITIZEN
S!
1. Share!of!population!living!under!poverty!datum
!line!(headcount!poverty!rate)!
Household!
survey!(BCWIS)!
Historically!surveys!
were!every!9!years,!
then!2!years!to!get!results.!Proposed!every!2C3!years!
6%!
19%!(2009/10)!
!
Share&of&population&living&
under&th
e&food&poverty&line&
(extre
me&poverty)&
BCWIS&
BCWIS&
3%&
14%&(2009/10)&
Target&is&co
nsiste
nt&with&the&World&
Bank&definitio
n&of&th
e&“elim
ination&of&
extre
me&poverty”&
Poverty&rate&in&femaleK
headed&households&as&%
&of&
poverty&rate&in&maleK
headed&households&
BCWIS&
BCWIS&
100%&
137%&(2009/10)&
&
2. Multidim
ensional!poverty!index!(M
PI),!!Multiple,!
including!BCWIS,!
PHC!
Varies;!individual!inputs!to!be!review
ed!1.00!
0.52!(various)!!
Child&mortality
&(per&1,000)&
StB&V2016/MDG&
indicators&
Annual&
4&
28&(2011)&
&
Malnutritio
n&
As&above&
Annual&
0%&
3.5%&(2013)&
&
Mean&years&o
f&schooling&
UNDP&HDI&
Annual&
13.4&
11.7&(2013)&
&
School&attendance&
As&above&
Annual&
100%&
58.7%&(2012)&
&
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1&&
FOIs&a
re&in&bold&and&IOIs&a
re&in&ita
lics&
!v!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
Acce
ss&to&electricity
&PHC&
Every&ten&years&
100%&
53.2%&(2011)&
&
Acce
ss&to&sanitation&
PHC&
Every&ten&years&
100%&
27.0%&(2011)&
&
Acce
ss&to&cle
an&water&
PHC,&BAIS,&BCWIS&
Approx&every&2K3&years&
100%&
96.3%&(2010)&
&
Flooring&material&(n
ot&
mud)&
PHC&
Every&ten&years&
100%&
89.6%&
&
Cooking&fuel&
PHC&
Every&ten&years&
100%&
55.7%&(2011)&
&
Asset&ownersh
ip&
Household&surveys,&
various&
&3.5&
2.4&(2014)&
&
3. Gini!coefficient!
Household!
survey!(BCWIS)!
Historically,!every!9!
years.!Proposed!to!move!to!2C3!year!
intervals!!
0.45!0.6!
!
Growth&rate&of&re
al&income&
of&th
e&bottom&40%&of&th
e&
income&distrib
ution&
BCWIS&
&8%&
n/a&
Relates&to
&World&Bank&objectiv
e&
&
4. Citizen’s!w
ellCbeing!index!
TBD.!Proposed!to!
use!Gallup!World!
Poll!data.!
Annual,!if!Gallup!data!used!
Target!figure!TBD!
!Needs!agreem
ent!on!data!source!and!com
ponents!of!index!
HUMAN
!DEVELO
PMENT!O
UTCO
MES!
5. Life!expectancy!at!birth!!
PHC/U
NDP!H
DI,!
plus!other!possible!surveys!
Every!ten!years.!Will!
be!2!PHC!readings!
over!relevant!period!(2021,!2031).!!
74!64!(2013)!(U
NDP)!
68!(2011)!(StB)!
!
Maternal&mortality
&&
&8&
148&(2012)&
&
Infant&m
ortality
&&
&5&
17&(2011)&
&
!vi!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
Measure&of&disease&burden&
(malaria,&TB,&ca
ncer,&
diabetes)&
&&
TBD&
TBD&
&
Deaths&in
&road&accid
ents&
&&
5&
20.1&(2012)&
&
6. HIV!incidence!rate!
BAIS!Every!5!years!(?)!
0.35%!
1.09%!
Based!on!Spectrum!model!
projections!(UNAID
S)!
HIV&adult&p
revalence&rate&
&&
16%&
23%&
&
7. Botsw
ana’s!result!in!the!Trends!in!International!Mathem
atics!and!Science!Study!(TIM
SS)!
TIMSS!
Every!four!years.!475!
397!(8th!grade!m
aths)!and!404!(8
th!grade!science)!(2011)!
Average!of!8th!grade!results!in!
Maths!&
!Science!
8. Share!of!trained!workers!in!the!
workforce!
LFS,!PHC!
Every!5!years!(across!both)!
24%!(2021)!
30%!(2026)!
36%!(2031)!
42%!(2036)!
18%!(2011)!
“Skilled”!in!the!original!definition!replaced!w
ith!“trained”!
Proportio
n&of&18K24&year&
olds&in
&postKse
condary&
education&or&tra
ining&
(tertia
ry,&vocational)&
&&
30%!(2016)!
45%!(2021)!
55%!(2026)!
65%!(2031)!
75%!(2036)&
n/a&
&
Adult&lite
racy&rate&
&&
100%&
88.6%&(2014)&
&
Proportio
n&of&tra
ined&
females&as&%
&of&proportio
n&
of&tra
ined&males&
&&
100%&
101%&(2011)&
&
Immigration&of&sk
illed&
MLHA&
TBD&
0.25%&of&th
e&
n/a&
&
!vii!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
workers&a
nd&investors&
population&(in
itially&
5,000&people)&
ECONOMIC!GR
OWTH
!AND!JOB!CR
EATION!
9. Annual!average!rate!of!grow
th!of!real!GDP!National!Accounts!
Quarterly!6%
!!4.7%
!(2005C2014)!Sufficient!to!reach!highCincom
e!status!by!2036!(20!years)!(in!term
s!of!GDP!per!capita,!as!per!W
orld!Bank!criteria).!!
10. Annual!average!rate!of!grow
th!of!nonCdiam
ond!real!GDP!
National!Accounts!Quarterly!
6.4%!
7.0%!(2005C2014)!
!
National&wealth&
National&acco
unts,&
mineral&acco
unts,&
IIP&(BoB).&&
Annual&
400%&of&GDP&
340%&(2014)&
&
Adjusted&net&national&
savings&
National&acco
unts,&
mineral&acco
unts,&
budget&data&
(MFDP)&
Annual&
28%&of&GDP&
28%&(average&2010K
2014)&
&
Acce
ss&to&(exclu
sion&fro
m)&
formal&fin
ancial&se
rvices&
FinScope&survey&
Varies,&a
pprox.&e
very&5&
years&
95%&
74%&(2014)&
&
Total&fa
ctor&productiv
ity&
(TFP)&growth&
&&
3.2%&p.a.&
1.4%&(2004K2013)&
&
11. NonCdiamond!export!
as!a!percentage!of!GDP!
BIMTS,!BoB!
Monthly,!for!goods!
exports;!available!4C5!months!later.!
Quarterly,!for!services!exports.!Quality!(coverage)!of!services!
2021:!23%!
2026:!27%!
2031:!32%!
2036:!39%!
!
15%!(2014)!
Targets!are!consistent!with!grow
th!figures!and!balance!of!paym
ents!stability.!
!viii!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
trade!data!a!concern.!!!
NonKdiamond&exports&a
s&a&
perce
ntage&of&to
tal&exports&
(of&goods&&&services)&
&&
2021:&38%&
2026:&49%&
2031:&59%&
2036:&69%&
23%&(2014)&
Targets&a
re&consiste
nt&with&growth&
figures&and&balance&of&payments&
stability
.&
12. Unemploym
ent!rate!Various!surveys!
Every!1C2!years!
Delay!of!1C2!years!in!availability!of!results!
Concerns!about!consistency!and!reliability!given!the!different!surveys!used!
5%!
20%!(2013)!
!
Number&of&new&jobs&
annually&
StB&Employment&
Survey&
Annual&
28,500&
&&
Growth&rate&of&fo
rmal&
employment&
StB&Employment&
Survey&
Annual&
3.5%&
0.6%&(2010K13)&
&
Number&of&new&formal&
sector&jo
bs&a&year&
StB&Employment&
Survey&
Annual&
17,000&
&&
Proportio
n&of&females&in
&
formal&employment&
StB&Employment&
Survey&
Annual&
50%&
45%&(2013)&
&
Unemployment&ra
te&for&
females&as&%
&of&
unemployment&ra
te&for&
males&
Various&su
rveys&
Every&1K2&years&
100%&
128%&
&
SUSTAIN
ABILITY!OF!D
EVELOPM
ENT!
13. Annual!grain!import!
Imports:!BIM
TS!Imports:!m
onthly!85%
!85%
!!
!ix!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
as!a!share!of!annual!grain!consum
ption!Consum
ption:!Dept.!of!Crop!Production!
Production:!annual!
Growth&in&domestic&
foodgrain&productio
n&
Dept.&of&Crop&
Productio
n&
Annual&
3.0%&
1.5%&(20&years&fro
m&
1993K2012)&
&
14. Annual!water!
abstraction!as!a!share!of!sustainable!yields!of!surface!w
ater!and!groundw
ater!
DWA!w
ater!accounts!
TBD!90%
!or!less!Not!know
n!!
Annual&water&abstra
ction&
of&su
rface&water&as&a&share&
of&su
stainable&surface&
water&yield&
DWA&water&
acco
unts&
TBD&
90%&or&le
ss&Approx.&7
0%&(once&new&
dams&are&included)&
&
Annual&water&abstra
ction&
of&groundwater&as&a&share&
of&su
stainable&groundwater&
yield&&
DWA&water&
acco
unts&
TBD&
90%&or&le
ss&Around&100%&
nationally,&but&over&
100%&in&some&locations&
&
Water&re
cyclin
g&(%
&of&
water&at&tre
atment&works&
that&is&re
Kused)&
DWA&water&
acco
unts&
TBD&
96%&
Not&known,&perhaps&10K
20%&
&
15. Annual!energy!import!
as!a!share!of!annual!energy!consum
ption!
DEA&Energy&
Acco
unts!
TBD!60%
!65%
!(2015!estimate)!
!
Annual&electricity
&import&a
s&
share&of&electricity
&
consumption&
StB&
Annual&
25%&
41%&(2014)&
&
!x!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
16. Emission!of!greenC
house!gas!TBD!
TBD!Double!2015!levels,!hence!a!target!of!44,600!Gg!
Estimated!at!22,300!Gg!
CO2!equivalent!!
Proportio
n&of&domestic&
electrica
l&power&generation&
from&solar&so
urce
s&(or&
other&re
newables)&
DEA&Energy&
Acco
unts&
TBD&
50%&
2%&(2015&estim
ate)&
&
17. Biodiversity:!number!
of!species!on!IUCN!Red!List!of!Threatened!Species!
IUCN!Annual!
No!increase!24!(2015)!
May!be!extended!if!M
EWT!provide!
additional!indicators!under!the!Biodiversity!Strategy!
18. Ranking!of!Botswana!
in!the!Worldw
ide!Governance!Indicators!(percentile)!
World!Bank!
International!dataset!(W
GI!project),!annual!85!
71.7&
Six!subCcomponents.!Average!
ranking!of!71.2%!in!2013.!
Voice&&&acco
untability
&&
&85&
62.6&
&
Politica
l&stability
/no&
violence&
&&
85&
84.8&
&
Government&effectiv
eness&
&&
85&
62.2&
&
Regulatory&quality
&&
&85&
73.2&
&
Rule&of&la
w&
&&
85&
68.3&
&
Control&of&co
rruption&
&&
85&
79.4&
&
19. Incidence!of!offences!against!m
orality;!against!the!person!and!against!property,!
Botswana!Police!
Service!(BPS)!Annual.!
!
2%!reduction!a!year!
97!(2014)!(Index!=!100,!average!2005C14)!
!
!xi!
!Data!Source!
Data!frequency,!
quality!etc.!Target!(2036)!
Baseline!(year)!Com
ments/Suggestions!
per!10,000!population!
Incidence&of&offences&
against&m
orality
,&per&
10,000&population&
BPS&
Annual&
2%&reductio
n&a&year&
104&(2014)&(In
dex&=&100,&
average&2005K14)&
&
Incidence&of&offences&
against&th
e&perso
n&per&
10,000&population&
BPS&
Annual&
2%&reductio
n&a&year&
91&(2014)&(In
dex&=&100,&
average&2005K14)&
&
Incidence&of&offences&
against&p
roperty,&per&
10,000&population&
BPS&
Annual&
2%&reductio
n&a&year&
95&(2014)&(In
dex&=&100,&
average&2005K14)&
&
!!!
!!
!
!!!
! 1!
Beyond'Vision'2016:'Final'and'Intermediate*Outcome*Indicators!
Introduction**
Botswana’s!Vision!2016!will!come!to!end,!after!20!years,!early!next!year.!The!process!of!developing!a!new!national!Vision!to!cover!the!period!2016!–!2036!is!under!way.!It!is!intended!that!the!new!Vision!will!include!a!monitoring!and!evaluation!framework.!As!part!of!this,!the!draft!Framework!for!Vision!Beyond!2016!has!proposed!19!Final!Outcome!Indicators!(FOIs).!This!report!supports!those!FOIs!by!providing!targets!for!this!set!of!indicators,!which!can!be!used!to!monitor!progress!with!the!achievement!of!highLlevel!Vision!Beyond!2016!objectives.!The!assignment!also!includes!the!generation!of!Intermediate!Outcome!Indicators,!which!support!the!process!by!identifying!measurable!subsidiary!indicators!that!will!contribute!to!the!achievement!of!the!FOIs.!
The!report!gives!definitions!for!each!FOI!and!IOI,!identifies!data!sources,!and!provides!information!on!frequency,!availability!and!any!data!issues.!!
The!postL2016!Vision!framework!has!four!pillars:!WellLBeing!of!Citizens;!Human!Development!Outcomes;!Economic!Growth!and!Job!Creation;!and!Sustainability!of!Development.!The!report!is!structured!around!these!four!pillars,!with!the!relevant!FOIs!and!IOS.!!!
Well.Being*of*Citizens*
FOI*#*1:*Headcount*Poverty*Rate*
Headcount!poverty!is!measured!relative!to!the!national!Poverty!Datum!Line!(PDL).!It!has!declined!substantially,!from!59%!in!1985/6,!to!47%!in!1993/4,!31%!in!2002/3!and!19%!in!2009/10.!Fitting!a!trend!to!this!rate!of!decline!indicates!that!the!poverty!rate!declined,!on!average,!by!4.5%!(not!percentage!points)!a!year.!!
A!simple!approach!to!setting!a!target!is!to!assume!that!this!rate!of!decline!continues!through!to!2036.!This!is!a!demanding!target,!because,!as!poverty!falls,!it!becomes!more!and!more!difficult!to!reduce!poverty!further.!!
A!continuation!of!this!trend!leads!to!a!headcount!poverty!target!in!2036!of!6.3%!(i.e.!a!reduction!of!around!twoLthirds!from!the!most!recent!measured!headcount!poverty!rate,!from!the!2009/10!BCWIS).!!
! 2!
Figure!1:!Headcount!Poverty!Rate!
!
Source:(Statistics(Botswana,(Econsult(
IOI:*Extreme*Poverty*Rate*(Food*Poverty)*A!similar!approach!can!be!taken!to!the!Extreme!Poverty!Rate,!which!is!often!measured!by!the!Food!Poverty!Rate!(the!proportion!of!the!population!that!does!not!have!sufficient!income!to!reach!the!food!component!of!the!national!PDL).!!
This!has!also!declined!substantially,!from!41%!in!1985/6,!to!30%!in!1993/4,!23%!in!2002/3!and!14%!in!2009/10.!Fitting!a!trend!to!this!rate!of!decline!indicates!that!the!poverty!rate!declined,!on!average,!by!4.2%!(not!percentage!points)!a!year.!!
A!continuation!of!this!trend!would!result!in!an!extreme!poverty!rate!of!4.9%!in!2036.!However,!it!is!proposed!that!a!more!demanding!target!is!adopted!for!this!IOI,!of!3%.!This!would!be!consistent!with!the!World!Bank!definition!of!“the!elimination!of!extreme!poverty”.!
IOI:*Ratio*of*poverty*rates*in*female.headed*households*to*that*of*male.headed*households.**It!is!proposed!to!add!a!further!IOI!relating!to!the!gender!impact!of!poverty.!BCWIS!survey!results!show!that!the!headcount!poverty!rate!for!femaleLheaded!households!(22.4%)!is!higher!than!that!for!maleLheaded!households!(16.3%)!.!This!reflects!many!other!characteristics,!including!higher!dependency!ratios!and!higher!unemployment.!Ideally!there!should!be!no!difference!between!the!poverty!rates!of!male!and!femaleLheaded!households,!and!it!is!proposed!that!this!objective!of!equality!is!included!as!an!IOI.!
FOI*#*2:*Multidimensional*Poverty*Index*(MPI)*
This!has!ten!components:!child!mortality,!malnutrition,!years!of!schooling,!school!attendance!(weighted!at!16.7!percent!each),!access!to!electricity,!access!to!sanitation,!access!to!water,!flooring!material,!cooking!fuel,!assets!ownership!(weighted!as!5.6!percent!each).!Each!of!these!will!be!intermediate!outcome!indicators,!and!the!specific!definitions!are!given!under!each!IOI!below.!As!far!as!possible!these!are!consistent!with!
y!=!0.6623eL0.046x!R²!=!0.97307!
0%!
10%!
20%!
30%!
40%!
50%!
60%!
70%!
1986!
1989!
1992!
1995!
1998!
2001!
2004!
2007!
2010!
2013!
2016!
2019!
2022!
2025!
2028!
2031!
2034!
2037!
2040!
! 3!
international!definitions!and!the!national!usage!in!the!monitoring!of!achievements!under!Vision!2016!and!the!MDGs.!
The!MPI!is!constructed!by!calculating,!for!each!indicator,!the!progress!towards!the!target.!Each!component!must!fall!between!zero!and!100%.!For!child!mortality!and!malnutrition,!progress!is!measured!relative!to!the!value!that!prevailed!around!2000.!
Child*mortality*Death!rate!of!under!5’s!(per!1,000).!
Baseline!(2011!PHC):!28!
Target!(European!highLincome!countries):!4!
Malnutrition*Prevalence!of!underweight!children!under!5.!
Baseline!(2013):!3.5%!!
Target:!0!
Years*of*schooling*This!measure!is!not!currently!produced!in!Botswana.!However,!it!is!published!by!UNDP!as!one!of!the!components!of!the!Human!Development!Index!(HDI).!In!fact!the!HDI!includes!two!measures:!mean!years!of!schooling!for!adults!(25!and!older),!and!expected!years!of!schooling!for!new!entrants!to!the!education!system.!For!mean!years!of!schooling,!Botswana!already!does!quite!well,!at!8.8!years!in!2013,!which!is!already!higher!than!the!average!for!High!Human!Development!countries!(8.1!years).!We!therefore!propose!that!the!target!should!be!the!figure!for!Very!High!Human!Development!countries,!of!11.7!years.!!!
School*attendance*Average!of!the!Net!Enrolment!Rates!(NERs)!for!primary!(6L12years),!junior!secondary!(13L15!years)!and!senior!secondary!schools!(16L17!years).!!
Baseline!(2012!Vision/MDG!report):!59%!
Target:!100%!
Access*to*electricity*Percentage!of!households!using!electricity!as!the!principal!source!of!lighting.!
Baseline!(2011!PHC):!53%!
Target:!100%!
Access*to*sanitation*Percentage!of!households!that!have!their!own!flush!toilets!or!improved!pit!latrines!(VIP).!
Baseline!(2011!PHC):!27%!!
Target:!100%!
Access*to*water*Percentage!of!households!that!have!access!to!clean!water!(piped,!borehole!&!bowser).!
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Baseline!(2010!BCWIS):!96%!
Target:!100%!
Flooring*material*Percentage!of!households!that!have!flooring!other!than!mud,!dung!or!none.!
Baseline!(2011!PHC):!89%!
Target:!100%!
Cooking*fuel**Percentage!of!households!that!use!electricity!or!LPG!as!the!principal!source!of!cooking!fuel.!
Baseline!(2011!PHC):!56%!
Target:!100%!
Asset*ownership*A!variety!of!types!of!assets!are!recorded!in!various!household!surveys,!including!housing,!cattle,!vehicles,!electrical!and!electronic!equipment,!etc..!In!choosing!which!assets!should!be!included!in!an!index!of!asset!ownership!that!denotes!an!absence!of!poverty,!some!care!is!needed.!For!instance,!housing!ownership!is!not!suitable,!as!many!poor!households!own!their!own!houses,!while!betterLoff!households!may!well!rent,!especially!in!urban!areas!(where!poverty!is!lower!than!in!rural!areas).!Similarly,!while!cattle!ownership!is!a!traditional!measure!of!wealth,!this!is!not!suitable!for!an!urbanising!society!(nonLcattle!owning!households!could!be!poor!rural!households,!or!wellLoff!urban!households).!!
Hence!a!short!list!of!assets!has!been!chosen!that!relate!to!degrees!of!poverty!(or!absence!of!poverty),!without!a!particular!urban!or!rural!bias,!and!which!have!a!clear!relationship!to!quality!of!life.!The!following!assets!are!proposed:!
1. CellLphone!2. Refrigerator!3. Television!4. Motor!vehicle!(car!or!van)!
The!target!for!each!asset!is!100%!for!(assets!1L3)!and!50%!(asset!4).!If!we!calculate!the!asset!ownership!index!as!a!simple!average!of!1L4,!the!target!is!3.5!(or!350%).!Current!ownership!(as!measured!in!the!2014!FinScope!survey!of!access!to!financial!services)!is!shown!below.!
Table!1:!Ownership!of!Key!Assets!
Asset* Ownership*(2014)* Target*Cell%phone! 90%! 100%!Television! 62%! 100%!Refrigerator! 53%! 100%!Motor!vehicle! 38%! 50%!
Total*asset*ownership* 243%* 350%*Source:(FinScope(2014(survey(results((unpublished)(&(Econsult(
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Table!2:!Calculation!of!MPI!
Component*(IOI)* Target* Most*recent*value* Value*of*Index*component*
Group(1((66.7%)( 1.00( ( 0.54(Child!mortality!(2000=75)! 4! 28! 0.61!Malnutrition!(2000=10%)! 0%! 3.5%! 0.66!Years!of!schooling!(2000=7.5)! n/a! 8.8! 0.31!
School!attendance!! 100%! 58.7! 0.59!Group(2((33.3%)( ( ( 0.65(Access!to!electricity! 100%! 53.2! 0.53!Access!to!sanitation! 100%! 27! 0.27!Access!to!water! 100%! 96.3! 0.96!Flooring!material! 100%! 89.6! 0.90!
Cooking!fuel!! 100%! 55.7! 0.56!Asset!ownership!! 3.5! 2.43! 0.69!
MPI*(weighted*average)* 1.00* * 0.58*Source:(Econsult(
The!MPI!should!be!interpreted!as!an!index!of!a!lack!of!poverty!(rather!than!of!poverty).!The!target!value!of!1.00!therefore!represents!“no!poverty”,!as!measured!by!the!various!index!components.!However,!the!specific!numerical!value!of!the!index!has!no!meaning;!like!any!index,!it!can!only!be!used!to!track!changes!over!time.!Hence!an!increase!in!the!index!would!reflect!a!reduction!in!poverty!(a!movement!towards!a!lack!of!poverty)!as!tracked!by!the!MPI!components.!!
Alternately,!the!inverse!could!be!used!(1!minus!the!figure!calculated!above),!which!would!give!a!target!of!zero!and!a!current!reading!of!0.44.!This!could!then!be!interpreted!as!a!measure!of!the!level!of!poverty,!based!on!these!broad!criteria.!
FOI*#*3:*Gini*Coefficient*
The!Gini!coefficient!measures!the!degree!of!inequality!in!the!distribution!of!income!(or!of!consumption!spending).!Data!on!the!Gini!coefficient!is!somewhat!inconsistent,!with!Statistics!Botswana!(2013)!and!the!World!Bank!(2015)!reporting!different!results!even!when!based!on!the!same!dataset,!due!to!different!methodologies2.!
The!World!Bank!reports!the!following!results!for!the!Gini:!2002/3!L!64.7!and!2009/10!L!60.5,!thereby!indicating!a!reduction!in!inequality!between!the!two!surveys!(HIES!and!BCWIS).!Nevertheless,!even!at!60.5!the!Gini!is!high!by!international!standards,!making!Botswana!one!of!the!most!unequal!countries!in!the!world.!Here!we!use!the!World!Bank!figures,!as!the!calculation!is!based!on!internationally!accepted!methodology.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!2"" Statistics"Botswana"measures"the"distribution"of"consumption"at"the"household"level."The"World"
Bank"measures"it"at"the"level"of"individuals,"which"the"method"used"internationally."
! 6!
It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!reducing!the!Gini!should!be!to!bring!it!down!to!0.45.!This!would!move!Botswana!closer!to!the!global!average!for!inequality3.!The!Gini!only!changes!slowly,!even!with!faster!income!growth!for!lowerLincome!groups.!It!should!be!noted!that!this!is!a!very!demanding!target!and!requires!a!combination!of!rapid!growth!in!real!incomes!for!lower!income!groups!and!very!low!growth!in!real!income!for!upper!income!groups.!!!!
IOI:*Rate*of*Increase*of*the*Income*of*the*lowest*40%*of*the*population*Inequality!can!only!be!reduced!by!faster!income!growth!for!lower!income!groups!than!for!higher!income!groups,!whether!through!improved!economic!opportunities,!improved!social!safety!nets,!or!a!combination!of!the!two.!In!order!to!significantly!reduce!the!Gini,!the!income!of!the!poorest!40%!of!the!population!needs!to!increase!nearly!twice!as!fast!as!overall!income!growth.!As!an!illustration,!if!the!income!of!the!poorest!40%!of!households!increases!by!8.0%!a!year!from!2016!to!2036!while!overall!household!real!income!growth!is!4.4%,!this!would!bring!the!Gini!down!from!0.6!to!0.45!over!the!period.!!
It!is!proposed!that!8%!be!set!as!the!target!for!the!annual!average!real!income!growth!of!the!poorest!40%!of!households.!This!would!lead!to!their!incomes!increasing!by!365%!over!the!period!(while!overall!incomes!increase!by!138%).!!
FOI*#*4:*Citizens’*Well.Being*Index*
The!intention!behind!the!citizens’!wellLbeing!index!is!to!provide!an!overall!measure!of!wellLbeing!from!a!collective,!community!perspective!rather!than!the!individual!measures!that!are!captured!elsewhere.!It!should!include!perceptions!of!societal!wellLbeing!as!well!as!some!measures!of!community!participation.!!
Such!an!index!is!not!currently!produced.!However,!some!aspects!of!possible!index!components!are!captured!in!the!Gallup!World!Poll!Survey,!which!is!carried!out!annually!in!160!countries,!including!Botswana,!and!involves!a!statistically!sound!sample!of!1,000!adults!in!each!country,!weighted!as!per!census!population!distribution.!
The!World!Poll!comprises!Global!Core!Questions!and!RegionLSpecific!Questions!(including!a!set!for!SubLSaharan!Africa).!Both!sets!of!questions!cover!Business!&!Economics,!Citizen!Engagement,!Communications!and!Technology,!Education!and!Families,!Environment!and!Energy,!Food!and!Shelter,!Government!and!Politics,!Law!and!Order,!Health,!Religion!and!Ethics,!Social!Issues,!WellLBeing,!Work,!and!Other.!The!Poll!provides!data!on!96!topics.!
We!propose!that!a!subLset!of!the!GWP!questions!be!used!to!construct!a!Citizen!WellLBeing!Index.!The!data!can!be!purchased!commercially!from!Gallup4.!An!indicative!set!of!questions!that!could!be!used!is!shown!in!Appendix!1.! *!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!3"" The"global"average"Gini"coefficient"across"145"countries"for"which"data"is"available"from"the"
World"Bank,"mostly"for"various"years"between"2000"and"2010,"was"40"(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality).""
4"" Different"levels"of"engagement"are"possible"with"Gallup,"ranging"from"the"purchase"of"aggregate"results"for"specific"questions,"the"full"results"dataset"(respondent"level),"and"the"addition"of"customised"questions"to"the"poll."There"is"a"cost"to"this,"depending"on"the"level"of"engagement,"but"it"is"likely"to"be"cheaper"than"commissioning"a"nationwide"poll"independently.""
"
! 7!
Human*Development*Outcomes*
FOI*#*5:*Life*Expectancy*at*Birth*
Life!expectancy!at!birth!(LEB)!is!one!of!the!most!important!indicators!of!the!quality!of!life!as!it!encompasses!a!wide!range!of!human!development!conditions!(health,!education,!safety,!nutrition!etc.).!In!Botswana’s!case!LEB!was!dramatically!and!negatively!impacted!by!HIV/AIDS,!which!caused!a!sharp!rise!in!death!rates!in!the!1990s!and!early!2000s.!Since!that!time,!however,!it!has!increased!following!the!successful!rollLout!of!treatment.!!
Figures!from!different!sources!are!somewhat!contradictory,!especially!during!the!period!of!maximum!HIV/AIDS!impact.!Statistics!Botswana!reports!LEB!of!68!years!as!at!the!2011!Census.!The!UNDP!uses!LEB!as!one!of!the!components!of!the!Human!Development!Index,!and!reports!a!figure!of!64.4!years!for!Botswana!in!2013.!!
It!is!proposed!that!a!target!be!set!for!life!expectancy!of!74!years!which!is!the!average!for!“High!Human!Development”!countries!in!the!HDI.!!
IOI:*Maternal*Mortality*Maternal!mortality!(per!100,000!live!births)!is!a!further!key!indicator!of!human!development!outcomes.!In!Botswana!it!has!been!relatively!high!(189!in!2011!and!148!in!2012)!and!has!not!shown!any!concerted!downward!trend,!despite!increased!resources!for!health.!!!
It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!this!IOI!be!set!at!8!(consistent!with!high!income!countries).!
IOI:*Infant*Mortality*Infant!mortality!was!17!(per!1,000!live!births)!in!2011.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!this!IOI!be!set!at!5!(consistent!with!high!income!countries).!
IOI:*Measures*of*Disease*Burden*With!the!largely!successful!management!of!HIV/AIDS!and!consequent!reduction!in!death!rates,!other!diseases!are!becoming!more!significant,!including!cancer!and!other!nonLcommunicable!diseases.!It!may!be!worth!including!as!an!IOI!a!measure!of!other!disease!burden,!including!malaria,!tuberculosis,!diabetes!and!cancer.!This!could!be!constructed!as!an!index!combining!the!following:!
• Malaria!cases!per!10,000!population!• Cancer!cases!per!10,000!population!• TB!cases!per!10,000!population!
Each!variable!would!be!set!as!100!in!the!chosen!base!year!(e.g.!2016),!and!the!value!of!the!index!calculated!each!year!relative!to!the!base!year.!The!overall!measure!is!simply!the!average!of!the!three!indices!calculated!each!year.!
However,!the!necessary!data!is!not!at!present!readily!accessible,!and!would!have!to!be!specifically!provided.!
! 8!
IOI:*Deaths*in*Road*Accidents*Deaths!in!road!traffic!accidents!are!a!major!problem!in!Botswana,!with!a!rate!of!20.1!per!100,000!population!in!2013.!However!there!has!been!a!steady!downward!trend,!and!compares!to!over!30!a!decade!earlier.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!set!at!5,!which!is!consistent!with!highLincome!countries.!!
FOI*#*6:*HIV*Incidence*Rate*
Botswana!has!made!good!progress!in!dealing!with!the!HIV!epidemic.!AntiLretroviral!Therapy!(ARV)!therapy!has!been!made!widely!available!through!the!public!health!service,!and!death!rates!have!dropped!dramatically!as!survival!times!on!treatment!have!increased.!High!levels!of!health!resources!have!been!made!available!to!deal!with!the!epidemic.!!
Notwithstanding!these!achievements!–!or!indeed!partly!because!of!them!–!large!numbers!of!people!in!Botswana!are!HIVLpositive.!The!HIV!prevalence!rate!has!remained!high,!in!part!because!of!the!success!of!ARV!treatment!in!prolonging!life!expectancy.!Because!of!the!extended!life!expectancy!of!HIV+!adults,!and!the!fact!that!they!will!remain!infectious!forever,!it!will!take!a!long!time!to!achieve!freedom!from!HIV!infection.!In!this!respect!HIV!infection!is!not!like,!for!instance,!the!Ebola!virus,!where!a!patient!is!no!longer!infectious,!once!cured.!HIV!infection!is!not!cured,!simply!managed!and!suppressed.!!
LongLterm!projections!of!HIV!incidence!(the!rate!of!new!infections)!and!prevalence!(the!proportion!of!a!population!group!infected)!have!been!prepared!by!UNAIDS!using!the!Spectrum!model.!The!UNAIDS!projections!include!incidence!and!prevalence!under!different!scenarios!of!treatment!and!resource!allocation!for!HIV/AIDS!(for!instance,!relating!to!resources!for!prevention,!and!eligibility!for!treatment).!!
The!current!(2015)!HIV!incidence!rate!is!estimated!at!1.09%.!The!UNAIDS!projections!show!that!on!the!basis!of!“business!as!usual”,!i.e.!a!continuation!of!current!policies,!the!HIV+!population!will!continue!to!rise!in!numerical!terms,!and!the!incidence!rate!will!only!decline!slowly,!to!0.91%!in!2036.!An!enhanced!treatment!programme!along!with!additional!resources!for!prevention!and!health!system!strengthening!will!lead!to!a!steeper!decline,!to!0.35%!in!2036,!but!zero!incidence!will!not!be!achievable.!It!is!proposed!that!this!figure!of!0.35%!be!adopted!as!the!FOI!target!for!2036.!
IOI:*HIV*Prevalence*Rate*While!the!focus!is!rightly!on!incidence!(new!infections),!policy!should!also!aim!to!bring!down!the!number!of!people!infected!and!the!adult!prevalence!rate.!The!same!UNAIDS!projections!show!that!under!the!enhanced!scenario,!it!will!decline!from!23%!in!2015!to!16%!in!2036.!It!is!proposed!that!16%!be!adopted!as!the!adult!prevalence!target!for!2036.!This!may!seem!unduly!high,!but!it!is!important!to!remember!that!with!improved!treatment,!many!people!who!are!HIV+!now!will!still!be!alive!in!2036.!!
FOI*#*7:*Botswana’s*Results*in*TIMSS*
Maths!and!science!education!is!widely!recognised!as!an!essential!foundation!of!productivity!growth.!The!international!Trends!in!Mathematics!and!Science!Scores!(TIMSS)!assesses!country!level!performance!every!four!years,!and!provides!comparative!
! 9!
scores.!Botswana’s!most!recent!performance!in!8th!grade!science!and!mathematics!was!397!and!404!respectively,!in!2011.!This!performance!is!relatively!weak,!especially!in!science!and!compares!with!a!global!average!of!500;!scores!by!the!top!ten!countries!globally!averaging!550;!and!maximum!achievements!of!613!in!grade!8!maths!(South!Korea)!and!590!in!grade!9!science!(Singapore).!In!science,!Botswana!just!surpasses!the!“Low”!benchmark!(400),!but!just!falls!short!of!this!in!maths.!It!is!proposed!that!the!2036!target!for!Botswana!be!set!at!475,!which!is!the!“Intermediate”!international!benchmark.!!
FOI*#*8:*Share*of*trained*workers*
Training!of!workers!is!one!of!the!elements!that!are!key!to!raising!productivity!in!the!economy,!which!is!in!turn!essential!for!longLterm!growth!in!real!incomes.!
The!Census!records!the!level!of!training!of!adults!in!the!labour!force.!There!is!no!clear!definition!of!what!constitutes!“trained”.!For!present!purposes,!training!is!defined!as!vocational,!technical!or!further!academic!education5.!!
As!at!the!2011!Census,!18%!of!the!labour!force!was!classified!as!trained!in!line!with!this!definition.!Improving!this!figure!will!require!increasing!the!proportion!of!younger!adults!who!enter!postLsecondary!training.!On!the!basis!that!the!proportion!of!younger!adults!in!technical,!vocational!and!academic!further!education!is!as!per!the!IOI!below,!rising!to!75%!of!18L24!year!olds!by!2036,!the!appropriate!target!for!the!share!of!trained!workers!in!the!overall!labour!force!as!at!that!date!is!42%!
Three!IOIs!are!proposed!to!complement!this!FOI.!!!
IOI:*Proportion*of*18.24*year*olds*in*post.secondary*education*or*training*(tertiary,*vocational)*This!IOI!relates!to!the!flow!of!new!workers!into!the!workforce.!It!is!currently!21%.!It!is!proposed!that!the!2036!target!should!be!75%.!!
IOI:*Adult*literacy*rate*(Literacy*amongst*the*15.65*age*cohort)*This!should!ideally!be!at!or!very!close!to!100%.!The!current!figure!(2014)!is!89%.!
IOI:*Proportion*of*trained*females*as*%*of*proportion*of*trained*males*In!pursuit!of!gender!equality,!females!should!have!equal!access!to!training!opportunities.!If!this!is!achieved,!the!proportion!of!trained!females!should!be!very!close!to!the!proportion!of!trained!males.!!
As!at!2011,!the!proportions!of!males!and!females!trained!were!very!similar,!with!a!slightly!higher!proportion!of!females!(25.7%!vs!25.4%).!!
IOI:*Immigration*of*skilled*workers*and*investors*One!of!the!reasons!for!the!slowdown!in!economic!growth!and!employment!creation!has!been!the!more!restrictive!environment!for!immigration.!Nevertheless,!it!is!widely!recognised!that!immigration!of!skilled!workers!and!investors!into!any!country!is!essential!to!boost!growth!and!employment!creation.!Some!countries!have!formal!targets!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!5"" This"includes"apprenticeship"certificate,"Brigade"certificate"or"diploma,"vocational"certificate"or"
diploma,"Education"College"certificate"or"diploma,"IHS"certificate"or"diploma,"University"certificate,"diploma"or"degree.""
! 10!
for!minimum!immigration!levels;!for!instance,!Canada!has!an!objective!of!attracting!275,000!immigrants!in!2015,!equivalent!to!0.8%!of!the!population.!!
In!order!to!boost!economic!growth!and!ensure!that!job!creation!reaches!the!target!levels!necessary!for!full!employment,!it!is!proposed!that!target!is!set!for!the!minimum!annual!immigration!of!skilled!workers!and!investors,!at!0.25%!of!the!population!a!year!(equivalent!initially!to!5,000!people).!!!!
!
!
! *
! 11!
Economic*Growth*and*Job*Creation*
FOI*#*9:*GDP*Growth*Rate*
One!of!the!aims!of!the!economic!growth!target!is!to!reach!“highLincome”!status!(as!per!World!Bank!classification)!during!the!period!of!the!new!Vision.!The!current!classification!used!by!the!World!Bank!is!that!a!highLincome!country!has!Gross!National!Income!(GNI)!per!capita,!measured!as!per!the!WB’s!methodology,!of!at!least!$12,746.!This!is!adjusted!each!year!to!keep!it!constant!in!real!terms,!i.e.!in!line!with!international!inflation!(specify),!but!is!not!adjusted!to!reflect!general!economic!growth.!The!most!recent!World!Bank!GNI!figure!for!Botswana!is!$7,730!(2013).!!
Hence!an!increase!of!65%!is!required!to!achieve!highLincome!status,!equivalent!to!2.1%!a!year!over!the!period!to!2036!(20!years!from!the!start!of!the!new!Vision).!To!calculate!the!desired!rate!of!economic!growth,!we!need!to!also!take!into!account!population!growth.!Between!the!2001!and!2011!censuses!this!averaged!2%!a!year.!Population!projections!from!the!UN!Population!Division!–!which!are!widely!accepted!as!a!reliable!source!of!longLterm!global!population!projections!–!gives!a!population!growth!rate!of!just!under!1%!a!year!for!Botswana!under!its!“medium!fertility”!projection!and!1.3%!in!its!“high!fertility”!projection.!We!use!an!estimate!of!1.5%!a!year!for!mediumLterm!population!growth.!
Hence!average!real!GDP!growth!of!3.7%!per!annum!would!be!necessary!to!achieve!highLincome!status!by!2036.!
However,!the!economic!growth!rate!target!is!also!driven!by!the!need!to!generate!sufficient!jobs!to!achieve!full!employment!(see!discussion!under!FOI!#!12).!!A!growth!rate!of!3.7%!a!year!would!be!insufficient!to!achieve!this;!instead,!a!higher!growth!rate!of!6%!a!year!would!be!necessary.!It!is!proposed!that!this!higher,!more!demanding!growth!target!be!adopted.!This!would!lead!to!the!achievement!of!highLincome!status!by!2023.!!
FOI*#*10:*Non.diamond*real*GDP*(%*growth)*
Recent!projections!for!diamond!production!indicate!that!output!should!remain!stable!at!current!levels!for!the!next!35!years.!While!this!provides!a!useful!base!for!GDP,!government!revenues!and!exports,!it!will!not!make!any!direct!contribution!to!economic!growth.!Hence!the!economy!will!be!dependent!on!nonLdiamond!output!to!drive!growth.!NonLdiamond!GDP!will!need!to!grow!on!average!at!6.4%!a!year!for!the!20!years!to!2036!to!achieve!the!employment!objective.!!
IOI:*National*Wealth*Measures!of!economic!growth!(e.g.!real!GDP!growth)!do!not!provide!any!indication!of!whether!that!growth!is!sustainable.!GDP!is!generated,!in!part,!through!the!depletion!of!assets,!whether!the!consumption!of!fixed!capital!(depreciation),!or!the!depletion!of!mineral!assets.!For!growth!to!be!sustainable,!assets!used!up!in!the!generation!of!GDP!must!be!offset!by!the!accumulation!of!new!assets!(i.e.!investment).!Hence!it!is!important!for!national!wealth!–!comprising!assets!of!various!kinds!L!to!be!preserved.!
A!simple!measure!of!national!wealth!(the!national!balance!sheet)!comprises!the!sum!of!the!following:!
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Type*of*asset! Definition! Source!
Produced!capital!(fixed!assets)!
Capital!stock!prepared!as!part!of!the!national!accounts!
Statistics!Botswana!
Mineral!assets! Net!present!value!of!mineral!deposits!in!the!ground!
StB/MMEWR!–!part!of!the!WAVES!Mineral!Accounting!project!
Financial!assets! Net!foreign!assets!(international!investment!position)!
Bank!of!Botswana!(BFS)!
!
All!of!the!above!data!are!currently!available.!In!due!course,!a!more!comprehensive!measure!of!national!wealth!could!incorporate!“intangible”!capital,!such!as!human!capital!and!social/institutional!capital,!but!the!methodology!for!doing!so!is!not!yet!readily!available.!!
The!value!of!these!assets!on!the!national!balance!sheet,!relative!to!GDP,!were!relatively!stable!from!1994!to!2008,!at!around!400%,!but!were!then!drawn!down!as!a!result!of!the!global!financial!crisis.!In!2014,!the!value!of!the!NBS!was!equivalent!to!340%!of!GDP.!This!may!lead!to!slower!growth!rates!in!future,!unless!offset!by!an!increase!in!productivity!(TFP).!
It!is!proposed!that!the!objective!should!to!restore!the!level!of!NBS!assets!relative!to!GDP!at!the!preLglobal!crisis!level!of!around!400%6.!When!combined!with!growth!targets,!this!implies!that!real!wealth!per!capita!would!have!to!grow!by!4.5%!per!annum.!!
IOI:*Adjusted*Net*National*Savings*(ANNS)*ANNS!measures!the!proportion!of!GDP!that!is!devoted!to!the!accumulation!of!assets,!rather!than!consumption.!It!is!related!to!the!national!balance!sheet,!in!that!if!ANNS!is!positive,!national!assets!should!increase!(in!absolute!terms).!If!ANNS!is!sufficiently!high,!then!NBS!assets!will!increase!relative!to!GDP.!
ANNS!is!calculated!as!follows:!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!6"" If"at"a"later"stage"data"are"available"to"include"human"capital"in"the"assessment"of"national"
wealth,"the"appropriate"figure"would"change.""
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!
Small!differences!in!methodology!mean!that!the!NBS!and!ANNS!do!not!relate!directly!to!each!other;!for!instance,!ANNS!takes!account!of!investment!in!human!capital,!while!the!NBS!does!not,!while!the!NBS!takes!account!of!new!discoveries!and!valuation!changes!in!respect!of!mineral!assets,!but!the!ANNS!does!not.!Nevertheless,!there!is!an!important!relationship!between!the!two.!In!order!to!maintain!the!level!of!NBS!relative!to!GDP,!the!rate!of!ANNS!must!be!at!least!equal!to!the!target!GDP!growth!rate!multiplied!by!the!size!of!the!NBS!relative!to!GDP.!Therefore,!the!ANNS!should!be!at!least!equal!to!20.4%!of!GDP!(340%!x!6%)!to!maintain!the!NBS!at!the!2014!level.!However,!to!restore!the!level!of!the!NBS!to!the!preLglobal!crisis!level!of!400%,!a!higher!rate!of!ANNS!will!be!required.!It!is!proposed!that!the!average!level!of!the!past!five!years!(2010L14)!of!28%!be!maintained.!This!would!achieve!the!NBS!target!(400%!of!GDP)!within!ten!years.!!
IOI:*Exclusion*from*access*to*(formal)*financial*services*Access!to!financial!services!(savings,!credit,!insurance,!payments!&!remittances)!is!a!crucial!prerequisite!for!participation!in!the!formal!economy.!Many!Batswana!remain!excluded!from!such!access,!especially!those!who!do!not!have!formal!employment!and!regular!incomes.!Financial!innovation!is,!however,!providing!new!opportunities!for!the!provision!of!financial!products!and!services!–!such!as!mobile!money!–!that!are!more!suited!to!the!needs!of!those!on!low!and!irregular!incomes.!While!the!provision!of!financial!services!by!informal!entities!can!help!to!fill!gaps,!it!is!preferable!to!have!them!provided!by!formal!entities,!whether!banks!or!nonLbanks.!!
The!most!recent!survey!on!access!to!financial!services!showed!that!74%!had!such!access!in!2014.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!such!access!be!set!at!95%.!
IOI:*Total*Factor*Productivity*(TFP)*Growth*In!the!longLterm!growth!in!the!economy!and!living!standards!is!determined!by!increased!productivity,!rather!than!simply!the!accumulation!of!larger!amounts!of!labour!and!capital,!or!the!consumption!of!mineral!rents.!Total!Factor!Productivity!(TFP)!measures!the!overall!increase!in!productivity!in!an!economy.!
• Deduct:!consumption!of!qixed!capital!!
Gross!National!Savings!
• Add:!expenditure!on!education!(investment!in!human!K)!!• Deduct:!natural!resource!depletion!(minerals)!
Net!National!Savings!
• Monitoring!changes!in!wealth!each!year!
Genuine!National!Savings!(adjusted!net!savings)!
! 14!
There!have!been!concerns!about!slow!(or!even!negative)!TFP!growth!in!Botswana.!However,!recent!estimates!(Leith,!2015)!show!that!while!TFP!growth!averaged!L0.88%!a!year!from!1994L2003,!this!decline!was!reversed!in!the!next!decade!and!average!annual!TFP!growth!was!1.37%!a!year!from!2004L2013.!
The!target!rate!of!TFP!growth!can!be!derived!from!the!target!growth!rate!of!real!GDP!and!projections!of!the!growth!in!capital!stock,!labour!and!mineral!rents.!This!results!in!a!target!rate!of!TFP!growth!of!3,2%!a!year.!This!is!a!dramatically!higher!rate!of!TFP!growth!than!Botswana!has!experienced!in!the!recent!past,!and!illustrates!the!importance!of!dramatically!improving!productivity!if!growth!and!employment!targets!are!to!be!achieved.!!!
Table!3:!Growth!Contributions!
Macroeconomic variable
GDP share (initial)
Annual growth Target/projection
(%)
Growth contribution
GDP 100% 6% 6% Capital stock 40% 5% 2.0% Employed labour force
40% 3% 1.2%
Mineral rents 20% -2% -0.4% TFP 3.2% 3.2% !
!
FOI*#*11:*Non.diamond*exports*(%*of*GDP)*
Growth!in!nonLdiamond!output!will!need!to!be!increasingly!exportLdriven,!given!the!limited!ability!of!the!small!domestic!economy!to!drive!growth.!At!present,!exports!are!dominated!by!diamonds,!but!will!need!to!become!increasingly!diversified.!!
In!2014,!nonLdiamond!exports!(goods!&!services)!amounted!to!15%!of!GDP.!This!needs!to!increase!significantly!in!order!for!the!balance!of!payments!to!be!sustainable!as!diamond!exports!exhibit!little!or!no!growth.!Modelling!indicates!that!by!2036,!nonLdiamond!exports!of!goods!and!services!need!to!increase!to!39%!of!GDP.!FiveLyearly!targets!consistent!with!this!outcome!are!as!follows:!2021!L!23%;!2026!–!27%;!and!2031!–!32%..!
IOI:*Non.diamond*exports*(%*of*total*exports)*A!complementary!indicator!to!FOI!#!11!is!nonLdiamond!exports!as!a!share!of!total!exports.!This!also!needs!to!increase!substantially!in!order!to!drive!future!growth!and!to!ensure!balance!of!payments!stability.!Modelling!indicates!that!by!2036,!nonLdiamond!exports!of!goods!and!services!need!to!increase!to!69%!of!total!exports,!compared!to!23%!in!2013.!FiveLyearly!targets!consistent!with!this!outcome!are!as!follows:!2021!L!38%;!2026!–!49%;!and!2031!–!59%!
FOI*#*12:*Unemployment*Rate*
Unemployment!is!only!measured!on!an!irregular!basis!in!Botswana.!In!most!years,!questions!relating!to!employment!and!unemployment!are!included!in!household!
! 15!
surveys!that!are!carried!out!for!other!purposes.!More!detailed!labour!force!information!is!only!available!in!the!Labour!Force!Surveys!and!Population!Census,!which!are!each!carried!out!at!tenLyear!intervals.!!
The!most!recent!unemployment!figure!came!from!the!2013!BAIS,!at!20%.!This!is!consistent!with!unemployment!readings!from!2010L12.!However,!this!only!measures!“narrow”!unemployment,!i.e.!people!who!are!actively!seeking!work.!When!unemployment!is!high,!some!people!may!be!discouraged!from!seeking!work!if!the!chances!of!finding!it!are!low.!“Broad”!measures!of!unemployment,!which!include!the!discouraged!unemployed,!are!likely!to!be!substantially!higher.!!
“Full”!employment!is!generally!considered!to!be!an!unemployment!rate!(narrow)!of!around!5%.!In!order!to!achieve!this!by!2036,!total!employment!will!need!to!grow!from!around!700,000!(in!2016)!to!almost!1,270,000!by!2036!–!i.e.!570,000!new!jobs!will!need!to!be!created!over!the!20!year!period.!!
It!is!proposed!that!an!IOI!be!established!relating!to!the!number!of!new!jobs!required,!which!averages!28,500!a!year.!This!includes!formal!sector,!informal!sector,!and!agricultural!jobs.!!
IOI:*Growth*rate*of*formal*employment*Based!on!the!current!size!and!structure!of!the!labour!force,!the!growth!rate!of!formal!employment!necessary!to!achieve!the!objective!of!full!employment!can!be!calculated.!In!recent!years!the!labour!force!has!been!growing!much!faster!than!the!population!as!a!whole,!due!to!the!structure!of!the!population,!and!it!is!assumed!that!this!will!continue,!but!at!a!lower!rate.!!
To!achieve!the!overall!(un)employment!objective,!total!employment!will!need!to!grow!by!3.0%!a!year,!but!this!growth!rate!may!not!be!the!same!across!all!segments!of!the!labour!market!(i.e.!formal!sector,!informal!sector!and!agriculture).!In!particular,!employment!in!agriculture!is!unlikely!to!grow!as!fast!as!elsewhere!in!the!economy.!!This!is!not!because!the!agricultural!sector!will!not!grow,!but!because!many!people!currently!employed!in!agriculture!are!underLemployed,!and!can!offer!more!working!hours!as!the!sector!grows,!rather!than!taking!on!more!workers.!!
If!we!assume!that!employment!in!the!informal!sector!grows!at!the!same!rate!as!the!formal!sector,!and!that!employment!in!agriculture!grows!at!half!of!this!rate,!then!formal!sector!employment!growth!of!3.5%!a!year!will!be!sufficient!to!achieve!full!employment!by!2036.!
This!will!require!a!sharp!increase!in!the!rate!of!growth!of!formal!employment,!which!averaged!only!1.9%!a!year!over!the!decade!from!2003L13,!despite!the!fact!that!real!GDP!growth!averaged!4.6%!a!year!over!this!period.!The!elasticity!of!formal!employment!growth!with!regard!to!GDP!growth!is!only!0.41.!In!the!more!recent!period,!2010L13,!formal!employment!elasticity!has!been!even!lower,!at!0.19.!For!the!employment!growth!and!unemployment!targets!to!be!reached!with!the!projected!real!GDP!growth!rates,!employment!elasticity!will!have!to!increase!to!0.5.!Growth!will!therefore!have!to!be!concentrated!in!labourLintensive!sectors!in!order!to!reach!full!employment!(see!Appendix!2!for!more!details!of!the!employment!elasticity!and!growth!assumptions).!!!
! 16!
The!IOI!target!for!formal!sector!employment!growth!should!therefore!be!3.5%!a!year,!or!an!average!of!17,000!new!formal!sector!jobs!a!year.!!
Table!4:!Labour!Force!Projections!
2016 2036 Category Number Share (of
labour force)
Growth (annual to 2036)
Number Share
Economically active (Labour Force) 900,000 100% 2.0%
1,330,000 100%
Formally employed 350,000 39% 3.4% 690,000 51% Informal sector 150,000 17% 3.4% 295,000 22% Agriculture 200,000 22% 1.7% 280,000 21% Unemployed 200,000 22%
73,000 5%
! !
IOI:*Proportion*of*females*in*total*formal*employment*One!aspect!of!gender!inequality!in!Botswana!is!the!lower!participation!by!females!in!formal!employment!as!compared!to!males.!In!2013,!only!45%!of!formal!sector!employees!were!females.!It!is!desirable!for!employment!opportunities!for!females!to!be!on!a!par!with!males.!A!proposed!IOI!is!therefore!that!females!should!make!up!50%!of!formal!sector!employees.!
IOI:*Unemployment*rate*for*females*as*%*of*unemployment*rate*for*males*A!related!aspect!of!gender!inequality!is!the!higher!unemployment!rate!for!females!(22.6%!in!2011)!than!for!males!(17.7%).!While!unemployment!needs!to!be!brought!down!dramatically!for!both!males!and!females,!in!an!environment!of!equal!opportunities,!the!ratio!of!female!to!male!unemployment!should!be!no!higher!than!100%.!!
! *
! 17!
Sustainability*of*Development*
FOI*#*13:*Annual*grain*import*as*a*share*of*annual*grain*consumption*
Botswana’s!main!foodgrain!consumption!comprises!maize,!sorghum,!millet,!wheat!and!rice.!The!main!local!production!comprises!sorghum!and!maize,!with!small!quantities!of!millet.!There!is!no!significant!local!production!of!wheat!or!rice.!Maize,!sorghum!and!millet!are!largely!grown!under!rainfed!conditions,!and!are!therefore!highly!dependent!upon!climatic!conditions.!!
Total!demand!for!foodgrains!is!estimated!at!440,000!tonnes!in!2016!(of!which,!maize!and!sorghum!make!up!310,000).!This!is!projected!to!increase!by!81%,!to!795,000!tonnes!in!2036!(maize!and!sorghum!560,000!tonnes).!
Demand!can!be!met!either!by!local!production,!or!by!imports.!Domestic!production!is!highly!variable,!dependent!upon!climatic!conditions,!but!on!average!meets!around!15%!of!local!demand!(65,000!tonnes),!with!the!remainder!met!by!imports.!The!low!proportion!demand!met!from!domestic!supply!reflects!absolute!limits!on!domestic!production,!as!well!as!the!high!costs!of!domestic!production!compared!to!imports7.!Both!are!the!result!of!low!productivity.!!!!
Official!policy!focuses!on!food!security,!i.e.!ensuring!that!both!the!nation!and!individual!households!have!access!to!adequate!food!supplies!at!affordable!prices,!through!a!combination!of!local!production!and!imports.!Despite!the!low!level!of!local!production,!food!security!has!not!been!an!issue!as!import!channels!work!effectively!and!Botswana’s!economic!stability!has!meant!that!funds!have!been!readily!available!for!the!purchase!of!imported!foodgrains.!!
There!is!also!a!policy!of!increasing!local!production,!and!various!policies!and!support!schemes!have!been!implemented!by!government!over!the!years!to!support!arable!agriculture,!both!to!boost!local!production!and!to!support!income!generation!in!rural!areas.!Nevertheless,!local!production!is!constrained!by!a!combination!of!inadequate!and!variable!rainfall,!poor!soil!conditions,!and!low!productivity.!Global!warming!will!make!all!foodgrain!production!in!Botswana!more!difficult!and!expensive.!It!is!assumed!that!maize!and!sorghum!production!will!continue!to!be!rainfed,!as!irrigated!production!will!not!be!costLeffective!in!Botswana’s!environment!of!water!scarcity,!and!would!require!extensive!use!of!water!that!has!higher!economic!value!in!alternative!uses.!Finally,!domestic!production!needs!to!be!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!!
In!this!situation!it!would!not!make!sense!to!aim!for!reduced!imports!regardless!of!the!cost!–!indeed,!increasing!local!production!at!current!cost!levels!would!lead!to!higher!costs!of!food!supplies!for!consumers!and/or!government.!Hence!it!is!proposed!that!the!targeted!proportions!of!local!and!imported!supplies!are!maintained!at!current!levels,!by!increasing!domestic!production!at!the!same!rate!as!demand!growth.!Policy!should!focus!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!7"" There"is"a"cost"to"relying"on"domestic"food"production,"where"productivity"levels"are"generally"
low."For"instance,"as"at"April"2015,"the"Botswana"Agricultural"Marketing"Board"was"selling"domestically"produced"sorghum"for"P3,500/tonne,"while"the"same"product"could"be"imported"for"P2,300/tonne"–"i.e."a"50%"price"premium"for"domestic"versus"imported"production."""
! 18!
on!increasing!productivity!in!agriculture!and!reducing!production!costs!of!foodgrains,!in!which!case!local!production!would!automatically!replace!imports.!!
Full!details!of!the!projections!of!consumption!and!production!for!the!period!from!2016!to!2036!are!provided!in!Table!12,!Appendix!3.!!
It!is!therefore!proposed!that!the!target!for!this!FOI!be!set!at!85%!(the!same!as!the!current!level).!This!is!consistent!with!realistic!growth!rates!of!domestic!foodgrain!production,!and!the!need!to!keep!local!production!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!It!reflects!the!fact!that!domestic!demand!will!continue!increasing!steadily,!hence!domestic!production!has!to!increase!at!the!same!rate!to!keep!the!proportion!steady!at!current!levels.!Even!meeting!this!targets!in!the!face!of!increasing!demand!requires!substantial!increases!in!domestic!production.!It!should!also!be!noted!that!a!significant!proportion!of!foodgrain!demand!is!for!wheat!and!rice,!which!cannot!be!feasibly!produced!in!Botswana.!!
IOI:*Growth*rate*of*domestic*foodgrain*production.**It!is!proposed!that!this!FOI!is!supported!by!an!IOI!relating!to!the!average!annual!growth!rate!of!domestic!foodgrain!production,!and!that!the!target!for!this!be!set!at!3%.!!
This!would!lead!to!total!foodgrain!production!nearly!doubling!(an!increase!of!81%)!over!the!Vision!period!2016L2036.!
It!compares!with!an!average!annual!growth!rate!of!the!production!foodgrains!(sorghum,!maize!and!millet)!over!the!20!years!from!1993!to!2012!of!1.5%!a!year8.!!
FOI*#*14:*Annual*abstraction*of*water*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of*surface*water*and*groundwater.*
Water!is!abstracted!from!three!main!sources!in!Botswana:!groundwater!(boreholes!&!wells);!surface!water!(reservoirs)!and!rivers.!Historically,!the!main!source!has!been!groundwater,!but!reservoirs!have!become!more!important!following!the!construction!of!several!large!new!dams.!According!to!the!draft!2015!Water!Accounts!(DWA/CAR,!2015),!in!2012/13!and!2013/14!groundwater!accounted!for!around!50%!of!total!water!abstraction;!reservoirs!around!43%!and!rivers!7%.!
Water!provision!is!split!between!Water!Utilities!Corporation!(WUC)!–!which!distributes!water!to!end!users!L!and!selfLproviders,!which!are!mainly!farmers!and!mining!companies.!The!national!total!water!consumption!is!approximately!200!million!cubic!metres!(mcm)!a!year.!Of!this!half!is!supplied!by!WUC,!while!selfLproviders!account!for!the!other!50%.!Agriculture!(livestock!and!irrigation)!accounts!for!34%!of!total!water!consumption,!and!mining!16%.!!
Data!from!DWA!indicates!that!the!sustainable!(safe)!yield!from!dams!is!approximately!143!mcm!annually9,!and!that!the!sustainable!annual!yield!from!boreholes!and!wellfields!is!around!100!mcm.!This!is!the!maximum!amount!that!can!be!taken!(abstracted)!without!depleting!water!stocks.!Hence!there!is!some!scope!to!increase!offtake!from!current!levels!L!once!the!new!reservoirs!are!connected!to!the!water!distribution!system!L!while!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!8"" Based"on"data"from"the"2012"Agricultural"Survey"(Statistics"Botswana,"2014)."9"" Of"which"65"mcm"is"from"“old”"dams"and"78"mcm"from"“new”"dams."
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remaining!within!the!projected!annual!sustainable!yield!of!around!243!mcm.!Nevertheless,!this!is!a!national!“average”!figure.!It!is!generally!accepted!that!groundwater!is!being!overLexploited!or!“mined”!in!some!locations,!i.e.!offtake!is!greater!than!the!sustainable!yield,!and!for!sustainability,!it!is!likely!that!groundwater!use!needs!to!be!reduced.!The!key!objective!is!that!annual!abstraction!should!not!exceed!the!sustainable!(safe)!yield.!!
Water!recycling!will!be!an!important!component!of!sustainable!water!management!in!the!future.!While!there!is!some!recycling!at!present,!the!magnitude!is!unknown!–!a!rough!estimate!suggests!10L20%.!There!is!a!target!of!recycling!or!reLusing!96%!of!wastewater!by!2030!in!the!National!Master!Plan!for!Waste!Water!and!Sanitation!(SMEC,!2003).!
It!is!therefore!proposed!that!the!(reLworded)!FOI!be!given!a!target!of!90%!or!less.!Although!100%!would!in!theory!be!sustainable,!the!uncertainty!over!measurement!of!supplies!and!yields!suggests!a!lower!target!would!be!more!appropriate.!
There!should!also!be!three!intermediate!outcome!indicators:!
IOI:*Annual*water*abstraction*of*surface*water*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of*surface*water*This!should!not!exceed!90%!
IOI:*Annual*water*abstraction*of*groundwater*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of*groundwater**This!should!not!exceed!90%!
IOI:*The*proportion*of*waste*water*at*treatment*works*that*is*re.used*or*re.cycled*The!target!should!be!96%!
!
FOI*#*15:*Annual*energy*import*as*a*share*of*annual*energy*consumption*
In!generating!projections!through!to!2036,!some!assumptions!are!required!regarding!the!sources!of!electricity,!and!the!balance!between!imports!and!domestic!production!more!generally.!In!reaching!an!appropriate!balance,!various!factors!need!to!be!taken!into!account,!including!(i)!security!of!supply,!and!(ii)!minimising!power!costs.!Historically,!imported!power!from!South!Africa!was!readily!available!and!cheaper!than!domestic!supply,!hence!the!decision!to!rely!largely!on!imports.!Currently,!neither!domestic!power!nor!imported!power!is!readily!available!in!adequate!quantities,!leading!to!supply!shortages!and!load!shedding;!the!security!of!supply!objective!is!not!being!met.!Given!this!situation,!price!(cost)!is!less!relevant,!as!power!is!not!available!to!buy!at!any!price.!!
In!the!medium!to!long!term,!it!is!likely!that!regional!hydroLelectric!power!supplies!will!be!developed!by!various!countries!(e.g.!Lesotho,!Zambia,!DR!Congo,!Mozambique)!on!a!scale!large!enough!to!provide!a!surplus!for!export.!If!so,!this!is!likely!to!be!the!cheapest!source!of!electricity!for!Botswana,!and!could!form!part!of!a!balanced!energy!supply!strategy.!However,!in!the!shortLtoLmedium!term,!it!is!less!likely!that!there!will!be!regional!sources!of!electricity!imports!available!at!a!lower!cost!than!new!sources!of!domestic!supply.!!
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It!is!therefore!assumed!that!additional!electricity!needs!will!be!largely!met!through!domestic!sources!of!power,!whether!this!is!coal,!gas!(coalLbed!methane)!or!solar.!However,!there!is!provision!for!25%!of!power!to!be!met!from!imports!in!the!long!term!to!take!advantage!of!cheaper!regional!power!sources.!The!exact!mix!of!domestic!sources!of!power!does!not!matter!with!regard!to!setting!the!objective!with!regard!to!the!proportion!of!energy!needs!met!from!domestic!sources,!although!it!is!relevant!for!the!later!objective!relating!to!greenhouse!gas!emissions.!
The!second!major!source!of!energy!consumed!is!fuel!oil,!which!is!entirely!imported.!While!there!may!be!some!scope!for!producing!fuel!oil!from!domestic!sources!(from!coal),!this!has!not!yet!been!proven!to!be!commercially!feasible,!and!so!is!not!included!in!these!projections.!!
Finally,!it!should!be!noted!that!while!reliance!on!domestic!sources!of!energy!can!reduce!vulnerability!to!supply!disruptions,!it!can!also!lead!to!higher!costs!if!domestic!sources!are!not!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!Hence!it!is!unlikely!to!be!appropriate!to!have!a!target!of!meeting!100%!of!energy!from!domestic!sources.!Furthermore,!some!sources!of!energy!(such!as!fuel!oil)!cannot!at!present!be!provided!form!domestic!sources.!!
Table!5:!Energy!Supply!and!Demand,!203610!
Final*Demand* Gj*millon*
Share*of*total*
energy*
Supply* Annual*growth*
Gj*million*
Share*of*total*
energy*Households! !183.8!! 44%! Wood!(D)! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%!Agriculture! !5.7!! 1%! Fuel!oil!(I)! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%!Services! !21.2!! 5%! Solar!(D)! 5%! 3.0! 0.7%!Industry!(incl.!mining)! !56.5!! 14%!
Electricity!(imported)!
!49.1! 11.9%!
Transport!!127.2!! 31%!
Coal!(electricity!&!other!uses)!(D)!
10.5%!! 146.6! 35.0%!
Govt/other! !18.9!! 5%! ! ! ! !Total* 413.3* 5.9%* Total* * 413.3* *( ( ( Domestic( ( (161(( 40%(( ( ( Import( ( (250(( 60%(Share(of(imported(electricity:( ( ( 25%(Source:(Econsult(
It!is!proposed!that!the!target!value!for!the!FOI!be!set!at!60%!in!2036!(compared!to!an!estimated!65%!in!2016).!!
IOI:*Share*of*Imported*Electricity*It!is!proposed!that!the!FOI!relating!to!share!of!energy!derived!from!imports!be!supplemented!by!an!IOI!relating!specifically!to!sources!of!electricity,!with!a!target!of!75%!from!domestic!sources!and!25%!from!imports.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!10"" For"further"details"of"calculations,"see"Appendix"4"
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FOI*#*16:*Emission*of*Greenhouse*Gas*(GHG)*
Future!projections!of!GHG!emissions!depend!crucially!on!how!domestic!electricity!is!generated!–!essentially,!the!relative!proportions!of!coal!and!solar!–!and!the!extent!to!which!electricity!needs!are!met!by!imports.!As!discussed!earlier,!it!is!assumed!that!the!majority!of!electricity!needs!will!be!met!from!domestic!sources.!!
Below!we!present!the!results!for!GHG!emissions!depending!on!the!option!adopted!for!the!coalLsolar!mix!for!domestic!power!generation.!Option!1!is!the!“high!coal”!option,!which!entails!meeting!73%!of!electricity!needs!from!domestic!coalLfired!power!generation!(the!remainder!from!solar!and!imports).!Option!2!is!the!“mixed!coalLsolar”!option,!which!sees!37%!of!electricity!needs!from!coal,!37%!from!solar,!and!the!remainder!from!imports.!!
Table!6:!Energy!Supply!and!GHG!Emission!Forecasts!for!203611!* Option*1*(high*coal)* Option*2*(mixed*coal*&*solar)** Growth* Supply*
(Gj*mn)*Share*of*
total*GHG*(Gg)* Growth* Supply*
(Gj*mn)*Share*of*
total*GHG*(Gg)*
Wood! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%! !2,054! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%! 2,054!Fuel*oil! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%! !4,481!! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%! !4,481!!Solar! 5%! 3.0! 0.7%! !%!!!! 22%! 70.3! 17.0%! !%!!!!Imported*electricity!
! 49.1! 11.9%! !%!!!! ! 50.8! 12.3%! !%!!!!
Coal*(electricity)*
10.5%! 140.5! 34.0%! !39,795!! 7%! 71.4! 17.3%! !20,243!!
Coal*(other)!
1%! 6.2! 1.5%! !1,746!! 1%! 6.2! 1.5%! !1,746!!
Non.energy!
2%! ! ! !4,266!! 2%! ! ! !4,266!!
Total* * 413.3* * *52,342** * 413.3! ! 32,790!
Source:(Econsult!!(
The!option!chosen!for!power!generation!makes!a!large!impact!on!future!GHG!emissions.!In!both!cases,!GHG!emissions!are!substantially!higher!than!the!2000!estimate!(7,434)!and!the!2015!projection!(12,710).!
Botswana!is!not!subject!to!any!caps!on!GHG!emissions!under!the!existing!international!agreement!on!the!subject,!the!Kyoto!Protocol.!However,!this!may!change!as!new!international!agreements!are!reached.!There!is!increasing!international!concern!about!global!warming!and!GHG!emissions,!and!regardless!of!whether!there!are!internationally!agreed!limits!on!Botswana’s!emissions,!it!can!be!argued!that!there!is!a!moral!obligation!for!Botswana!to!support!international!efforts.!!
In!considering!Botswana’s!contribution!to!global!warming!and!GHG!emissions,!it!is!also!necessary!to!consider!GHG!absorption.!In!this!respect,!Botswana!makes!a!major!contribution!due!to!the!high!level!of!biomass!(forests,!savannah!etc.),!which!absorb!CO2!from!the!atmosphere.!The!2000!assessment!estimated!that!in!that!year,!C02!removal!was!42,941!Gg,!compared!to!emissions!of!7,169!Gg,!resulting!in!a!net!CO2!contribution!of!35,507!Gg!–!i.e.!Botswana!was!then!a!carbon!sink.!!
There!are!no!estimates!of!how!CO2!absorption!has!evolved!over!the!years!since!2000.!It!seems!likely,!however,!that!CO2!absorption!has!declined,!given!the!expansion!of!urban!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11"" For"further"details"of"calculations,"see"Appendix"5"
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areas,!the!clearing!of!bush!for!arable!agriculture,!and!overgrazing!by!cattle!in!some!areas.!This!will!be!offset!to!some!extent!by!the!reduced!use!of!fuelwood!for!cooking!by!households.!In!the!absence!of!any!reliable!information,!we!assume!that!CO2!absorption!will!decline!by!1%!a!year.!!
Overall,!continued!growth!in!CO2!emissions!would!transform!Botswana!from!being!a!net!sink!of!GHG!to!a!net!emitter!of!CO2!over!20!year!period!of!the!new!Vision,!especially!if!use!of!coal!for!electricity!generation!grows!rapidly.!!
The!illustrative!outcomes!are!as!follows:!
Table!7:!Botswana!CO2!emissions!and!absorption!(Gg)!
* * 2000* 2015* 2036*Emissions* Coal! 7,162! 12,405! 52,342!* Mixed!coal%solar! ! ! 32,790!Absorption* ! %42,941! %36,932! %29,905!Net*emission* Coal! %35,779! %24,526! 22,347!* Mixed!coal%solar! %%! %%! 2,285!
Source:(Econsult(
NB:(the(above(tables(assume(that(25%(of(electricity(consumption(is(imported.(If(the(import(share(is(lower,(Botswana’s(GHG(emissions(will(be(significantly(higher.(It(also(assumes(that(electricity(will(not(be(generated(for(export.((
The!choice!of!GHG!emission!target!for!2036!therefore!depends!on!how!much!contribution!Botswana!wishes!to!make!to!international!efforts!to!reduce!global!warming.!While!Botswana!is!small!in!economic!and!GHG!emission!terms!by!global!standards,!it!would!seem!important!for!Botswana!to!be!aiming!to!play!a!positive!role!as!a!good!global!citizen!–!not!least!because!the!country!is!likely!to!be!adversely!affected!by!global!warming!and!climate!change.!In!line!with!this,!the!following!FOI!target!is!proposed:!
By!2036,!Botswana!should!aim!to!limit!its!gross!emissions!of!GHG!to!double!the!2016!level!(in!terms!of!CO2!equivalent)!
IOI:*Proportion*of*domestic*electricity*generation*from*solar*sources*This!should!be!supported!by!a!complementary!IOI:!
By!2036,!half!of!Botswana’s!domestic!electricity!generation!capacity!should!come!from!solar!sources.!
It!would!be!tempting!to!have!an!IOI!relating!to!Botswana’s!net!GHG!emissions!(i.e.!after!the!inclusion!of!CO2!absorption!(e.g.!aim!to!keep!Botswana’s!net!GHG!emission!neutral,!so!that!gross!emissions!are!matched!by!absorption).!However,!given!the!difficulties!of!measuring!absorption,!and!its!reliance!on!a!wide!range!of!assumptions!and!variables!that!are!not!accurately!or!frequently!measured,!this!would!be!impractical,!and!hence!this!has!not!been!pursued.!!!
!
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FOI*#*17:*Biodiversity*
The!Government!has!prepared!a!draft!National!Biodiversity!Strategy!and!Action!Plan!(Department!of!Environmental!Affairs,!2014).!The!Vision!associated!with!the!Strategy!is!as!follows:!
“By!2025,!ecosystem,!species!and!genetic!diversity!is!valued,!protected,!and!used!sustainably!and!equitably,!through!the!involvement!of!all!sectors!of!society!and!the!provision!of!sufficient!resources!for!its!sound!management.”!(DEnvA,!2014:ix).!
The!Strategy!recommends!the!development!and!implementation!of!a!formal!national!biodiversity!monitoring!system,!including!the!trend!and!analysis!of!species,!and!the!finalisation,!by!2016,!of!the!nationalLlevel!and!ecoregion!biodiversity!indicator!lists!DEnvA!2014:79).!
A!total!of!14!Biodiversity!Indicators!are!proposed,!although!no!data!are!presented!on!any!of!them.!Of!these,!possible!indicators!for!inclusion!in!the!Vision!exercise!include:!
• Trend!in!wildlife!ungulate!biomass!(excluding!elephant)!within!PAs!and!within!Wildlife!Management!Areas!(based!on!aerial!survey!data).!
• Trend!in!populations!of!indicator!species!(including!one!or!two!each!from!each!major!taxonomic!group,!i.e.!mammal,!bird,!reptile,!amphibian,!fish,!invertebrate,!plant).!
• Trend!in!the!extent!of!protected!areas!
An!alternative!indicator!that!has!been!proposed!is!the!Management!Effectiveness!Tracker!Tool!(METT),!a!standardized!tool!used!to!track!changes!in!the!management!effectiveness!of!protected!areas.!!The!tools!use!a!series!of!questions!to!generate!scores!for!different!aspects!of!protected!areas!management!–!covering!capacity!issues,!availability!of!data!and!information!for!conservation!management,!engagement!of!local!communities,!essential!infrastructure,!enforcement!aspects!and!so!on.!!
According!to!MEWT,!it!will!take!some!time!to!develop!this!broad!set!of!biodiversity!indicators,!which!need!firming!up!with!regard!to!exact!definitions,!data!sources!and!availability,!baseline!and!target!numbers.!In!the!meantime,!it!is!proposed!to!use!a!simple!measure!that!is!currently!available.!A!readily!available!indicator!is!the!number!of!species!on!the!IUCN!Red!List!of!Threatened!Species.!The!Red!List!includes!species!that!are!threatened!with!extinction!(i.e.!are!!Critically!Endangered,!Endangered!and!Vulnerable). This!is!compiled!annually!by!the!IUCN,!is!publicly!available,!and!is!recommended!as!an!initial!biodiversity!indicator.
As!at!June!2015!Botswana!has!24!species!on!the!IUCN!Red!List,!as!follows:!mammals!–!8;!birds!–!12;!fishes!–!2;!plants!–!2;!reptiles,!amphibians,!molluscs,!other!invertebrates!–!0.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!no!increase!in!the!number!of!species!on!the!IUCN!Red!List.!
FOI*#*18:*Ranking*of*Botswana*in*the*Worldwide*Governance*Indicators*
The!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators,!complied!by!the!World!Bank,!comprise!six!different!indicators:!Voice!&!accountability;!Political!stability/no!violence;!Government!effectiveness;!Regulatory!quality;!Rule!of!law;!Control!of!corruption.!The!six!aggregate!indicators!are!based!on!31!underlying!data!sources!reporting!the!perceptions!of!
! 24!
governance!of!a!large!number!of!survey!respondents!and!expert!assessments!worldwide.!!Each!indicator!is!measured!by!an!estimate!of!governance!quality!(ranges!from!approximately!L2.5!(weak)!to!2.5!(strong)!governance!performance).!Each!country!therefore!receives!a!rating,!each!year,!and!a!ranking!(expressed!as!a!percentage).!!
Botswana’s!ranking!under!the!six!components!in!the!most!recent!year!for!which!data!was!available!(2013)!was!as!follows:!
Table!8:!Ranking!of!Botswana!in!the!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators!(2013)!
Indicator* Ranking*(percentile)*Voice!&!accountability!(IOI)! 62.56(Political!stability/no!violence!(IOI)! 84.83(Government!effectiveness!(IOI)! 62.20(Regulatory!quality!(IOI)! 73.21(Rule!of!law!(IOI)! 68.25(Control!of!corruption!(IOI)! 79.43(Overall*average*(FOI)* 71.75*Source:(WGI(dataset,(2014(update((www.govindicators.org)(
It!is!proposed!that!for!each!indicator!(and!the!overall!average),!Botswana!should!aim!to!be!in!the!top!15%!of!global!rankings!(i.e.!in!the!85th!percentile!or!higher).!At!a!minimum,!all!indicators!should!achieve!the!level!of!Botswana’s!current!best!performing!indicator!(Political!stability/no!violence).!The!FOI!is!the!overall!average,!while!the!six!individual!indicators!are!IOIs.!!
FOI*#*19:*Incidences*of*offences*against*persons*or*morality*
The!Penal!Code!specifies!a!wide!range!of!offences!classified!into!various!categories.!Amongst!these!categories!are!Offences!Against!Morality,!Offences!Against!the!Person,!and!Offences!Relating!to!Property.!Following!consultations!with!Botswana!Police!Service,!a!selection!of!the!most!important!offences!in!each!category!was!made,!and!data!obtained!on!the!number!of!offences!committed!over!the!period!2005L2014.!!
The!offences!selected!are:!!
A. Offences*against*morality* A1.!Rape!
* A2.!Defilement!of!children!under!16!B. Offences*against*the*person* B1.!Murder!
* B2.!Manslaughter!
* B3.!Common!assault!C. Offences*against*property* C1.!Theft!
* C2.!Robbery!
* C3.!Housebreaking!
* C4.!Burglary!
* C5.Stock!Theft!** C6.!Theft!of!motor!Vehicle!
!
! 25!
Trends!in!the!number!of!offences!in!each!of!the!three!categories!over!the!past!decade!are!shown!below12.!The!results!show!that!there!has!been!a!slight!downward!trend!over!the!period!in!the!overall!crime!measure,!with!a!substantial!drop!in!offences!against!the!person,!and!increase!in!offences!against!morality,!and!no!overall!trend!in!offences!against!property.!
Figure!2:!!Trends!in!Crimes!Against!Morality,!the!Person!and!Property!(per!10,000!population)!
!
Source:"Botswana"Police"Service;"Econsult"
It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!for!a!reduction!in!the!crime!rate!of!oneLthird!in!each!of!these!categories!(and!therefore!overall)!over!the!period!2016L2036.!This!requires!an!average!annual!reduction!of!2%.!The!reduction!in!the!overall!crime!rate!against!morality,!the!person!and!property,!per!10,000!population,!measured!as!proposed!above,!would!be!the!FOI,!while!the!crime!rate!in!each!of!the!three!categories!would!be!IOIs.!!
! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!12"" Data"are"shown"based"on"offences"per"10,000"population"in"each"category,"expressed"as"an"index"
based"on"the"average"value"over"the"decade"2005a14"="100."The"overall"figure"is"the"simple"average"of"the"index"of"the"three"categories"(which"therefore"have"equal"weight).""
80!
85!
90!
95!
100!
105!
110!
115!
120!
2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014!
Index!2005^14!average!=!100!
Offences!against!morality! Offences!against!the!person!
Offences!against!property! OVERALL!
! 26!
References*
Department!of!Energy!Affairs!(2005,!2007,!2008)!Energy!Balance!Reports!
Department!of!Environmental!Affairs!(2014)!Draft!National!Biodiversity!Strategy!and!Action!Plan!
Department!of!Water!Affairs!(DWA)!and!Centre!for!Applied!Research!(CAR)!(2015)!Draft!Botswana!Water!Accounting!Report,!2015!(April)!
Leith,!J.C.!(2015)!MFDP!Research!Note:!Updated!Estimates!of!Total!Factor!Productivity!(April)!
Ministry!of!Environment,!Wildlife!and!Tourism!(MEWT)!(2011)!Second!National!Communication!to!the!United!Nations!Framework!on!Climate!Change,!December!
SMEC!(2003)!National!Master!Plan!for!Waste!Water!and!Sanitation!!
Statistics!Botswana!(2013)!Botswana!Core!Welfare!Indicators!Survey!2009/10!(August)!
Statistics!Botswana!(2014)!2012!Annual!Agricultural!Survey!Report!(April)!
Statistics!Botswana!(2015)!Electricity!Generation!and!Distribution,!Stats!Brief!Q42014!(March)!
World!Bank!(2015)!Botswana!Poverty!Assessment,!Report!No.!88473LBW!(March)!
! !
! 27!
Appendices*
Appendix*1:*Proposed*Gallup*World*Poll*questions*to*be*used*in*compiling*a*Citizens’*Well.Being*Index.**
Business,!Economics!and!Work!
• Are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!your!standard!of!living,!all!the!things!you!can!buy!and!do?!
• Can!people!in!this!country!get!ahead!by!working!hard,!or!not?!• How!would!you!rate!economic!conditions!in!this!country!today!–!as!excellent,!good,!
only!fair,!or!poor?!• Is!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!a!good!place!to!live!for!entrepreneurs!forming!new!
businesses?!• Right!now,!do!you!think!your!standard!of!living!is!getting!better!or!worse?!• In!general,!does!the!government!make!paperwork!and!permits!easy!enough!for!
anyone!who!wants!to!start!a!business,!or!not?!• Thinking!about!the!job!situation!in!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!today,!would!you!
say!that!it!is!now!a!good!time!or!a!bad!time!to!find!a!job?!
Citizen!Engagement!!
• Are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!your!freedom!to!choose!what!you!do!with!your!life?!
• Have!you!helped!a!stranger!or!someone!you!didn’t!know!who!needed!help!in!the!past!month?!
• Have!you!volunteered!your!time!to!an!organisation!in!the!past!month?!• If!you!were!in!trouble,!do!you!have!relatives!or!friends!you!can!count!on!to!help!you!
whenever!you!need!them,!or!not?!• Is!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!getting!better!or!getting!worse!as!a!place!to!live?!• Would!you!recommend!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!to!a!friend!or!associate!as!a!
pace!to!live,!or!not?!• Have!you!attended!a!place!of!worship!or!religious!service!within!the!past!7!days?!• Is!religion!an!important!part!of!your!daily!life?!• In!your!country,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!efforts!to!deal!with!the!poor?!• All!things!considered,!how!satisfied!are!you!with!your!life!as!a!whole!these!days?!Use!
a!0!to!10!scale,!where!0!is!dissatisfied!and!10!is!satisfied.!
Law!and!Order!
• Can!people!in!this!country!feel!very!confident!that!private!property!will!be!respected!at!all!times?!
• Do!you!feel!safe!walking!alone!at!night!in!the!city!or!area!where!you!live?!• Do!you!think!the!level!of!corruption!in!this!country!is!lower,!about!the!same!or!
higher!than!it!was!five!years!ago?!• In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!do!you!have!confidence!in!the!police!force?!• Within!the!last!12!months,!have!you!had!money!or!other!property!stolen!from!you!or!
another!household!member?!
Other!
! 28!
• In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the!educational!system!or!the!schools?!
• In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the!public!transportation!systems?!
• In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the!roads!and!highways?!
• Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without!electricity!in!your!home?!
• Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without!enough!water!for!home!use?!
• Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without!enough!food!to!eat?!
! !
! 29!
!
Appendix*2:*Economic*Growth,*Unemployment*and*Employment*Elasticity*
Introduction*Achieving!unemployment!targets!(FOI!#!12)!depends!on!both!the!overall!growth!rate!of!the!economy!(real!GDP!growth)!and!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth.!The!higher!the!latter,!the!greater!the!number!of!jobs!created!for!a!given!rate!of!economic!growth.!!To!achieve!a!given!target!for!job!creation!(and!reduction!of!unemployment),!a!higher!economic!growth!rate!will!be!required!the!lower!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth!–!i.e.!there!is!an!inverse!relationship!between!the!two.!!
Achieving*Full*Employment*by*2036*Recent!surveys!indicate!that!Botswana’s!unemployment!rate!is!around!20%.!While!this!is!in!accordance!with!ILO!definitions,!there!is!also!believed!to!be!some!additional!“discouraged”!unemployment!(people!who!have!given!up!looking!for!work,!and!who!are!therefore!no!longer!in!the!labour!force!according!to!ILO!definitions),!and!underLemployment!(particularly!in!agriculture).!!
With!this!starting!point,!and!assuming!that!the!labour!force!will!grow!by!2%!a!year,!employment!will!have!to!grow!by!3.0%!a!year!to!achieve!full!employment!(defined!as!unemployment!of!around!5%!or!less)!by!2036.!
Employment*Elasticity*One!of!Botswana’s!structural!economic!weaknesses!has!been!a!much!slower!rate!of!job!creation!(at!least!in!the!formal!sector)!than!the!rate!of!economic!growth.!For!instance,!over!the!decade!to!2013,!real!GDP!grew!by!57%!while!formal!employment!grew!by!only!20%.!The!formal!sector!employment!elasticity!of!growth!was!therefore!0.36.!
Scenario*Modelling*
Employment!Growth!!The!projected!growth!rate!of!employment!under!different!scenarios!entailing!combinations!of!real!GDP!growth!and!employment!elasticity!is!shown!below.!This!considers!real!GDP!growth!rates!from!4%!to!10%!(in!1%!increments)!and!employment!elasticities!from!0.3!to!0.7.!!
Table!9:!Implied!employment!growth!rates!
* Employment*Elasticity*Economic*Growth* 0.3! 0.35! 0.4! 0.5! 0.6! 0.7!4.0%* 1.2%! 1.4%! 1.6%! 2.0%! 2.4%! 2.8%!5.0%* 1.5%! 1.8%! 2.0%! 2.5%! 3.0%! 3.5%!6.0%* 1.8%! 2.1%! 2.4%! 3.0%! 3.6%! 4.2%!7.0%* 2.1%! 2.5%! 2.8%! 3.5%! 4.2%! 4.9%!8.0%* 2.4%! 2.8%! 3.2%! 4.0%! 4.8%! 5.6%!9.0%* 2.7%! 3.2%! 3.6%! 4.5%! 5.4%! 6.3%!10.0%* 3.0%! 3.5%! 4.0%! 5.0%! 6.0%! 7.0%!
!
! 30!
Unemployment!Rates!The!above!scenarios!can!be!used!to!project!unemployment!rates.!It!is!assumed!that!the!projected!employment!growth!rates!apply!across!the!entire!economy,!although!this!may!be!the!average!of!different!growth!rates!in!formal!employment,!informal!employment,!and!agriculture.!!
Table!10:!Implied!Unemployment!Rates!
* Employment*Elasticity*Economic*Growth* 0.3* 0.35* 0.4* 0.5* 0.6* 0.7*4.0%* 33.6%! 30.9%! 28.1%! 22.2%! 15.9%! 9.1%!5.0%* 29.5%! 25.2%! 22.2%! 14.2%! 5.5%! !6.0%* 25.2%! 20.7%! 15.9%! 5.5%! ! !7.0%* 20.7%! 14.2%! 9.1%! ! ! !8.0%* 15.9%! 9.1%! ! ! ! !9.0%* 10.8%! 1.7%! ! ! ! !10.0%* 5.5%! ! ! ! ! !
!
Conclusions*The!conclusion!of!the!above!is!that!to!achieve!full!employment,!an!increase!in!both!economic!growth!and!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth!are!required.!!
Hence!it!will!be!necessary!to!both!achieve!a!higher!economic!growth!rate!(6%)!and!shift!the!structure!of!growth!towards!more!labour!intensive!activities.!!
! !
! 31!
Appendix*3:*Foodgrain*Consumption*and*Production*
Data!on!local!production!of!foodgrains!is!available!from!two!sources:!the!annual!Agricultural!Survey!(from!Statistics!Botswana/Agricultural!Statistics!Section!of!the!Ministry!of!Agriculture)!and!the!Department!of!Crop!Production!of!the!MoA.!The!two!sets!of!data!are!not!entirely!consistent!with!each!other,!although!in!most!years!the!differences!are!not!excessive.!Data!from!DoCP!has!been!used!in!this!exercise.!Local!production!varies!considerably!from!year!to!year,!depending!on!both!climatic!conditions!and!the!nature!of!support!schemes!in!place.!!Data!on!imports!of!all!foodgrains!are!available!from!Statistics!Botswana.!!
Total!annual!consumption!of!foodgrains!can!be!derived!by!adding!together!data!on!domestic!production!and!imports.!!!Table!11!below!shows!information!on!production,!imports!and!total!consumption!of!major!food!grains.!Over!the!six!year!period!from!2009!to!2014,!domestic!production!met!approximately!15%!of!total!demand!for!foodgrains,!although!this!varied!across!commodities,!from!around!50%!of!sorghum,!just!under!10%!for!maize,!and!virtually!zero!for!other!foodgrains.!It!also!varied!from!year!to!year.!!!
The!MoA!sets!annual!objectives!for!local!grain!production!based!on!the!target!of!meeting!30%!of!total!cereal!demand!from!local!sources.!In!NDP10,!the!MoA!had!an!objective!of!increasing!local!production!of!cereals,!oil!seeds!and!legumes!from!a!baseline!of!15%!of!national!demand!to!50%!by!the!end!of!the!plan!(2015/16),!which!will!not!be!achieved.!
In!terms!of!plans!for!increasing!output!of!foodgrains,!it!is!noted!that!sorghum!is!more!suited!to!Botswana’s!climatic!conditions,!as!it!is!more!droughtLresistant!than!maize,!although!it!is!more!vulnerable!to!pests!such!as!quelea!birds.!Nevertheless,!with!global!warming!expected!to!lead!to!higher!average!temperatures!and!more!volatility!in!annual!rainfall!around!a!lower!annual!average,!the!climatic!preference!for!sorghum!is!likely!to!persist,!and!hence!it!is!likely!to!be!easier!to!increase!sorghum!production!than!maize.!Furthermore,!it!is!assumed!that!maize!and!sorghum!production!will!continue!to!be!rainfed,!as!irrigated!production!will!not!be!costLeffective!in!Botswana’s!environment!of!water!scarcity.!Finally,!domestic!production!needs!to!be!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!!!!
In!deriving!projections!for!the!period!from!2016!to!2036,!the!following!assumptions!are!used:!!
(i) The!population!will!grow!at!an!average!annual!rate!of!1.5%.!(ii) Total!demand!for!foodgrains!will!grow!at!a!rate!that!reflects!both!population!
growth!and!higher!real!incomes,!and!will!average!3.0%!a!year.!However,!reflecting!the!fact!that!as!incomes!rise,!the!share!of!income!spent!of!food!tends!to!decline,!this!projected!growth!rate!is!lower!than!the!rate!of!real!GDP!growth.!
(iii) Demand!for!the!major!foodgrains!(sorghum,!maize!and!wheat)!will!all!increase!at!the!same!rate!(although!it!should!be!noted!that!in!recent!years!demand!for!wheat!has!grown!at!a!faster!rate!than!that!of!maize!and!sorghum).!
(iv) Baseline!annual!production!is!45,000!tonnes!of!sorghum!and!20,000!tonnes!of!maize!(representing!50%!and!9%!of!the!demand!for!these!two!grains,!and!15%!of!overall!foodgrain!demand)!
! 32!
(v) Production!of!sorghum!and!maize!will!increase!on!average!by!3%!a!year!over!the!20!year!period.!!
!
!33!
Table&11:&Dom
estic&Production&and&Imports&of&Grains&
‘000t$Production$
Imports$
Consumption$
$Sorghum
$Maize$
Total$Sorghum
$Maize$
Total$cereals$
Sorghum$
Maize$
Total$cereals$
Maize$+$sorghum
$as$%
$of$total$2009$
!37,894!!!16,572!!
!56,211!!!51,907!!
!174,839!!!328,751!!
!89,801!!!191,411!!
!384,962!!73%
!2010$
!33,432!!!17,616!!
!54,482!!!30,706!!
!155,351!!!288,809!!
!64,138!!!172,967!!
343,291!69%
!2011$
!23,566!!!34,416!!
!61,796!!!28,664!!
!177,077!!!292,995!!
!52,230!!!211,493!!
!354,791!!74%
!2012$
!30,012!!!15,374!!
!52,606!!!47,739!!
!213,231!!!372,776!!
!77,751!!!228,605!!
!425,382!!72%
!2013$
!38,013!!!16,238!!
!55,529!!!45,326!!
!190,369!!!371,058!!
!83,339!!!206,607!!
!426,587!!68%
!2014$
!80,419!!!12,225!!
!96,372!!!18,125!!
!196,993!!!356,428!!
!98,544!!!209,218!!
!452,800!!68%
!$
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
As$%$of$total$consum
ption$!
!!
!!
!2009$
42.2%!
8.7%!
14.6%!
57.8%!
91.3%!
85.4%!!
!!
!2010$
52.1%!
10.2%!
15.9%!
47.9%!
89.8%!
84.1%!!
!!
!2011$
45.1%!
16.3%!
17.4%!
54.9%!
83.7%!
82.6%!!
!!
!2012$
38.6%!
6.7%!
12.4%!
61.4%!
93.3%!
87.6%!!
!!
!2013$
45.6%!
7.9%!
13.0%!
54.4%!
92.1%!
87.0%!!
!!
!2014$
81.6%!
5.8%!
21.3%!
18.4%!
94.2%!
78.7%!!
!!
!Average$
50.9%!
9.3%!
15.8%!
49.1%!
90.7%!
84.2%!!
!!
!$
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
Notes:$$
2010!figures!for!total!imports!and!consum
ption!have!been!adjusted!due!to!an!apparent!error!in!data!on!wheat!im
port!volumes!
$Production!data!is!from
!Dept!of!Crop!Production;!import!data!from
!BIMTS!
Consumption!estim
ates!ignore!changes!in!stocks!!!
!
!34!
Table&12:&Projected&consumption&and&production&of&grains,&2016<2036&
!Dem
and!!
Population!!
Production!!
!Sorghum
!!Maize!
Maize!+!sorghum
!!Total!Foodgrains!
!‘000!
!Sorghum
!!Maize!
Total!!
![1]$
$$
[2]$$
$$
[3]$[4]$
$$
2016!$90,000$$
$220,000$$$310,000$$
$440,000$$$
$2,181$$$
$45,000$$$20,000$$
$65,000$$$
2017!$92,700$$
$226,600$$$319,300$$
$453,200$$$
$2,214$$$
$46,350$$$20,600$$
$66,950$$$
2018!$95,481$$
$233,398$$$328,879$$
$466,796$$$
$2,247$$$
$47,741$$$21,218$$
$68,959$$$
2019!$98,345$$
$240,400$$$338,745$$
$480,800$$$
$2,281$$$
$49,173$$$21,855$$
$71,027$$$
2020!$101,296$$
$247,612$$$348,908$$
$495,224$$$
$2,315$$$
$50,648$$$22,510$$
$73,158$$$
2021!$104,335$$
$255,040$$$359,375$$
$510,081$$$
$2,350$$$
$52,167$$$23,185$$
$75,353$$$
2022!$107,465$$
$262,692$$$370,156$$
$525,383$$$
$2,385$$$
$53,732$$$23,881$$
$77,613$$$
2023!$110,689$$
$270,572$$$381,261$$
$541,145$$$
$2,421$$$
$55,344$$$24,597$$
$79,942$$$
2024!$114,009$$
$278,689$$$392,699$$
$557,379$$$
$2,457$$$
$57,005$$$25,335$$
$82,340$$$
2025!$117,430$$
$287,050$$$404,480$$
$574,100$$$
$2,494$$$
$58,715$$$26,095$$
$84,810$$$
2026!$120,952$$
$295,662$$$416,614$$
$591,323$$$
$2,531$$$
$60,476$$$26,878$$
$87,355$$$
2027!$124,581$$
$304,531$$$429,112$$
$609,063$$$
$2,569$$$
$62,291$$$27,685$$
$89,975$$$
2028!$128,318$$
$313,667$$$441,986$$
$627,335$$$
$2,608$$$
$64,159$$$28,515$$
$92,674$$$
2029!$132,168$$
$323,077$$$455,245$$
$646,155$$$
$2,647$$$
$66,084$$$29,371$$
$95,455$$$
2030!$136,133$$
$332,770$$$468,903$$
$665,539$$$
$2,687$$$
$68,067$$$30,252$$
$98,318$$$
2031!$140,217$$
$342,753$$$482,970$$
$685,506$$$
$2,727$$$
$70,109$$$31,159$$
$101,268$$$
2032!$144,424$$
$353,035$$$497,459$$
$706,071$$$
$2,768$$$
$72,212$$$32,094$$
$104,306$$$
2033!$148,756$$
$363,626$$$512,383$$
$727,253$$$
$2,810$$$
$74,378$$$33,057$$
$107,435$$$
2034!$153,219$$
$374,535$$$527,754$$
$749,071$$$
$2,852$$$
$76,609$$$34,049$$
$110,658$$$
2035!$157,816$$
$385,771$$$543,587$$
$771,543$$$
$2,894$$$
$78,908$$$35,070$$
$113,978$$$
2036!$162,550$$
$397,344$$$559,894$$
$794,689$$$
$2,938$$$
$81,275$$$36,122$$
$117,397$$$
!$
$$
! 35!
Appendix(4:(Energy(Production(and(Use(in(Botswana(
Botswana’s!energy!consumption!is!derived!from!a!variety!of!sources:!coal,!electricity,!fuelwood,!solar!power,!fuel!oil!(petrol,!diesel,!paraffin,!aviation!fuel!etc.)!and!liquid!petroleum!gas!(LPG).!Of!these,!fuel!oil,!LPG!and!some!electricity!are!imported,!while!the!remainder!are!produced!domestically!(including!electricity!generated!from!coal).!
Demand!for!energy!comes!from!the!following!sources:!households!(for!lighting,!cooking,!heating!and!smallFscale!production);!mining;!other!industry;!agriculture;!services;!government;!transportation;!and!intermediate!consumption!(transformation!and!distribution).!!
The!most!recent!exercise!to!fully!document!Botswana’s!energy!supply!and!demand!dates!back!to!2000!(MEWT,!2011).!Partial!updates!were!carried!out!in!energy!balance!exercises!in!2004F2008!by!the!Department!of!Energy!Affairs,!but!these!only!included!some!energy!sources!(coal,!electricity,!fuel!oils!etc.)!and!did!not!include!fuelwood.!Information!is!also!published!on!electricity!supply!and!demand!on!an!annual!basis!to!2014.!The!2000!exercise!included!projections!of!energy!demand!through!to!2035.!!
Approximate!energy!supply!and!demand!in!2000!was!reported!as!follows:!
Table&13:&Energy&Supply&and&Demand,&2000&
Final(Demand( Gj(millon( Share(of(
total(
Supply( Gj(million( Share(of(
total(
Households) 26) 43%) Wood) 20.4) 34%)Agriculture) 1) 2%) Fuel)oil) 24.6) 41%)Services) 3) 5%) Solar) 0.6) 1%)Industry)(incl.)mining))
8) 13%) Electricity)(imported))
7.2) 12%)
Transport) 18) 30%) Coal)(electricity)) 7.2) 12%)Govt/other) 4) 7%) ) ) )Total) 60) ) Total) 60) )! ! ! Domestic! 28.2! 47%!! ! ! Import! 31.8! 53%!
Source:!MEWT,!2011!!
Total!demand!was!projected!to!increase!by!2.5%!a!year!to!2035,!resulting!in!total!energy!demand!of!140!million!Gj!at!that!time.!!
For!present!purposes,!forecasts!have!been!recalculated!based!on!a!faster!growth!rate!of!just!under!6%!a!year,!in!line!with!higher!projected!real!GDP!growth,!resulting!in!total!final!energy!demand!of!410!million!Gj!in!2036.!
Based!on!the!energy!balance!exercises!carried!out!in!2004F8,!and!more!recent!information!on!electricity!consumption,!energy!supply!and!demand!in!2015!is!estimated!as!follows:!
! 36!
Table&14:&Energy&Supply&and&Demand,&2015&
Final(Demand( Gj(millon( Share(of(
total(
Supply( Gj(million( Share(of(
total(
Households) )54.1)) 44%) Wood) 17.5) 15%)Agriculture) )1.7)) 1%) Fuel)oil) 59.0) 50%)Services) )6.2)) 5%) Solar) 1.1) 1%)Industry)(incl.)mining)) )16.6)) 14%)
Electricity)(imported)) 17.0) 15%)
Transport))37.4)) 30%)
Coal)(electricity)&)other)uses)) 22.3) 19%)
Govt/other) )6.8)) 6%) ) ) )Total) 122.8) ) Total) 116) )! ! ! Domestic! 41! 35%!! ! ! Import! 76! 65%!
Source:!Econsult!
!
! !
! 37!
Appendix(5:(Greenhouse(Gas(Emissions(
Botswana’s!GHG!emissions!were!last!estimated!for!the!year!2000!(MEWT,!2011).!The!estimates!included!GHG!from!energy!production!as!well!as!nonFenergy!usage.!The!latter!comprises!mostly!methane!(CH4)!emissions!from!livestock.!GHG!emissions!were!estimated!as!follows:!
Table&15:&Estimated&GHG&Emissions,&2000&(CO2&equivalent)&
( Energy(Use( NonHenergy(use( Total(
Households) )2,447)) ) )2,447))Agriculture) )53)) 1,786) )1,839))Industry) )1,951)) ) )1,951))Transport) )475)) ) )475))Govt.) 369) ) )369)Other) 243) 111) 354)Total( 5,538( 1,896( (7,434(
Source:!MEWT,!2011!!
Although!GHG!emissions!are!not!specifically!attributed!to!types!of!energy!generation,!a!rough!approximation!can!be!made!and!is!shown!below.!Using!estimated!growth!rates!and!knowledge!of!changes!in!electricity!generation!(e.g.,!the!construction!of!Morupule!B),!GHG!emissions!can!be!estimated!for!2015.!
Table&16:&Estimated&GHG&Emissions,&2000&and&2015&(CO2&equivalent)&
Source( 2000( 2015(
Wood) 2,950) 2,537)Fuel)oil) 550) 1,318)Solar) 0) )0))))Imported)electricity) 0) )0))))Coal) 2,040) 6,306)NonQenergy)(mainly)agric.)Q)CH4)) 1,894) 2,549)Total( 7,434( 12,710(
Source:!Econsult!
!
