21 April 2017

1

Benefits of High Speed Rail

in France

April, 24th 2017

Dominique DEAU

Rail Baltica Forum

April 2017

2

Table of contents

1. The different HSL since 1981

2. Impact on the traffic

3. Other impacts

4. Conclusion

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1 The different HSL since 1981 in France

Total HSL length (Dec. 2016) :• 2130 km

Number of HS trainsets :• above 400 trainsets

Network operated by HS trainsets (HSL and conventional) :

• about 10 000 km

Number of stations served by HS trainsets :

• 250 stations,• among which 19 built for

HSL services.

HSL11981/1983

HSL21989/1990

HSL3 1993

HSL4 1992/94

HSL5 2001

HSL6 2007/2016

HSL7 2011

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2 Impact on the traffic2.1 Total of all high speed services

120 M pass./ year (highest HS traffic in Europe, but 350 M in Japan and 800 M in China)

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

110,0

120,0

1981

1982

1983

1984

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1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

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1996

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1998

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2011

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2014

2015

Tra

ffic

in m

illio

ns o

f p

as

seng

ers

Build-up of TGV traffic

TGV all routes

Impact of competition (car sharing, coaches, etc.)

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2 Impact on the traffic2.2 Detail by high speed service

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

19

81

19

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6

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7

19

88

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90

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91

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92

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93

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94

199

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7

19

98

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00

20

01

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02

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03

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200

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200

6

20

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20

11

Tra

ffic

in m

illio

ns o

f p

as

seng

ers

Build-up of TGV traffic

TGV South-East

TGV Atlantic

TGV jonction

Impact of the commercial policy

Opening of HSL5

Increase of journey times

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2 Impact on the traffic2.3 Example of Eurostar traffic (1/2)

0

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1000

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Mo

nth

ly t

raff

ic i

n th

ou

san

ds

of

pa

sse

ng

ers

Eurostar traffic through the Channel Tunnel

trend (12 month moving average)

April 2017

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2 Impact on the traffic2.3 Example of Eurostar traffic (2/2)

0

100

200

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400

500

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1000

nov

.-94

nov

.-95

nov

.-96

nov

.-97

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.-99

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ers

Eurostar traffic through the Channel Tunnel

trend (12 month moving average)Nov. 1996 : 1st fire in the Channel tunnel

Change of commercial policy

Sept. 2001 : check-in times increased from20 to 30 min

28 Sept. 2003 : journey time reduced by 20 min (CTRL1)

Summer 20015 : terrorist attacks in London

Nov 2007 : journey time reduced by 20 min (CTRL2)

Sept. 2008 : 2nd fire in the Channel tunnel

Nov 2015 / July 2016 : terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels and Nice

April 2017

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2 Impact on the traffic2.4 Lessons to be learnt

• The elasticity of the traffic to journey time is strong

• The elasticity of the traffic to price is also strong

• The market reacts up or down very quickly (you never “control” a market)

• The traffic between 2 cities located in 2 different countries is lower than what would be the traffic between these 2 cities if they were in the same country (border effect)

• If you try to internalise all the time saving through the fare policy, you jeopardise the future growth of the traffic

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2 Impact on the traffic2.5 Economic approach of a high speed project

competition infrastructure

economical

environment quality rolling stock

of

service

demand operating programme

fare

policy

revenues operating costs

investment costs

interest for the operator

interest for the community

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3 Other impacts3.1 Example of Paris – Lyon OD

On the Paris – Lyon OD between 1980 and 1985 :

• the railway journey time has been divided by 2 (4 hours to 2 hours),• the railway traffic has been multiplied by 2.4 (5 M pass. with TGV).

The study carried out to assess ex post the TGV impact has shown that :

• among TGV passengers between Paris and Lyon, there was the same number of people living in Paris than people living in Lyon. As Lyon in 10 times smaller than Paris (1 M inhabitants vs 10 M), it means that in proportion the effect on Lyon has been 10 times bigger,

• as it became so easy to travel from Paris to Lyon by TGV, some big companies have decided to remove their local or regional offices in Lyon,

• on the other hand some skilled professionals living in Lyon (barristers, architects, etc.) have taken advantage of TGV to sell their services in Paris.

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3 Other impacts3.2 Continuous development around Lyon Part-Dieu railway station

2016 vision

A : deliveredB : works on goingC : works decided

A Incity

A Terralta

A Le Dolet

B Bricks

B Orange

B Sky 56

BGaribaldi

C two Lyon

C Commercial

centre

B107

Servient

BWintech

B : Silex1C : Silex2

Railway station

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3 Other impacts3.3 Example of HSL Rhin-Rhône (HSL7)

HSL Rhin-Rhône has been in service since December 2011.

The study carried out to assess ex post the TGV impact has shown in particular that the number of nights spent in the hotels around the HSL area :

• has decreased from Monday to Thursday (business travellers can now achieved a return trip in the same day),

• has increased on week-ends (positive impact thanks to leisure traffic).

April 2017

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3 Other impacts3.4 Preparing the opening of HSL Bretagne (July 2017)

Public and private stakeholders have been preparing this opening for several years. Among the actions undertaken :

• city of Rennes is involved in the development of Rennes station to facilitate intermodality with local transport (buses and automatic underground line),

• Region of Bretagne is pushing hard to make sure that the benefits of the HSL will go beyond Rennes towards Brest and Quimper ; achieving such a result necessitates a remodelling of regional railway services,

• private undertakings have reserved offices around Rennes railway station to facilitate co-working.

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4 Conclusion

• The market reacts up or down very quickly depending on :➢ the journey time,➢ the fare policy➢ the economic environment (including competition)

• The key point for the economic assessment of a high speed project is the consistency between :➢ the traffic forecasts (the demand)➢ the operating programme (train timetable, rolling stock roster, etc.)

• The effects of a high speed project beyond the traffic are not automatic ; they have to be prepared well in advance with all stakeholders :➢ public sector➢ private sector

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Thank you for your attention

April 2017

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Appendix

April 2017

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A1 Impact of Eurostar on air traffic

Air travel between London and Paris

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

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400

janv-9

2

avr-

92

juil-

92

oct-

92

janv-9

3

avr-

93

juil-

93

oct-

93

janv-9

4

avr-

94

juil-

94

oct-

94

janv-9

5

avr-

95

juil-

95

oct-

95

janv-9

6

avr-

96

juil-

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oct-

96

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7

avr-

97

juil-

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97

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8

avr-

98

juil-

98

oct-

98

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9

avr-

99

juil-

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oct-

99

janv-0

0

traff

ic i

n t

ho

usan

ds o

f p

assen

gers

trend (12 month moving average)

monthly traff ic