BENEFITS

OF FOREST

ECOSYSTEMS IN

ZAMBIA AND

THE ROLE OF

REDD+ IN A

GREEN ECONOMY

TRANSFORMATION

This is the summary of a report launched in collaboration and consultation with the Government of the Republic of Zambia.

Key messages

• ThemainobjectiveofthepresentstudywastoassesstheeconomicvalueofZambia’sforestecosystemservic-es.Preparationofthestudyformspartofarangeofac-tivitiesundertheUN-REDD1NationalProgramme.TheREDD+financialmechanism2isdesignedtorewardde-velopingcountriesfortheirverifiedreductionorremov-alofforestcarbonemissionsmeasuredagainstaforestreference(emission)level(FREL/FRL)thatcomplieswiththesafeguardsunderthe2010CancunAgreements.

• Forests are an important component of the naturalcapitalofZambiaandprovidebenefitscriticalforruralpopulations,urbanareas,thenationaleconomyandtheglobalcommunity.Outofthecountry’stotallandareaof75.3millionhectares(ha),estimatesoftheremainingforestedareasrangefrom39millionha(CSO2013)to50millionha(Kalindaet al.2008),andeven53millionha(ZFD2000).

• Estimates of deforestation rates range from 250,000haperyear (ILUAstudy) to444,800haperyear (FAO2005)andsomecommentatorsevensettheseatabove850,000haperyear (FAO2001, in Jumbeet al.2008;GRZ2006a).Zambia has the second highest per capita deforestation rate in Africa and the fifth highest in the world(Aongolaet al.2009).Themaindrivingforcesbe-hindthisdeforestationarecharcoalproduction,agricul-tural andhuman settlementexpansionand the illegalexploitationoftimber.

• The present study estimates that, when ecosystemservicesprovidedbyforestsareaccountedfor,forests make a direct contribution to the national economy equivalent to about 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), which rises to 6.3% with the application of mul-tiplier effects. Data were not available, however, formanygoodsandservices,meaningthattheactualfig-urescouldbeconsiderablyhigher thanthoseestimat-ed inthisstudy.Forpurposesofcomparison, in2010,thefollowingsectorsmadethe largestcontributiontoZambia’sGDP:agriculture,includingforestry(9.9),con-

1 UN-REDD: United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries.2 REDD+, or REDD-plus, is an enhanced version of the mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD), which emerged in 2008, building in the ideas of conserving and sustainably managing forests, forest restoration and reforestation.

struction(10.9%),mining(12.9%),andthewholesaleandretailtradesector(18.9%).

• Accordingtothepresentstudy,themostvaluableben-efitsprovidedbyforeststotheZambianeconomycon-sistofcharcoal;sedimentretentionanderosioncontrol;non-woodforestproducts;andecotourismandvariousotherservices,suchastheprovisionofindustrialround-wood,pollinationservicesandcarbonstorage.

• Oneofthemostimportantfunctionsperformedbyfor-estsistheircontributiontoZambianlivelihoods.Forests support over 1 million jobs, which means that they support more than 60% of rural Zambian households.

• ThebasicREDDmechanism,togetherwithitsenhancedversion,REDD+,aimedatenhancingforestcarbonstockand theconservationandsustainablemanagementofforests, has a significant role to play in catalysing thetransitiontoagreeneconomyandcontributingtothecountry’s broader development and attainment of itseconomicobjectives.

• Severalmeasures can help secure the long-termben-efits and values provided by forests through mecha-nismssuchasREDD+:theseincludestrengtheningfor-estmanagementandtheenforcementoflawsonillegaltimber harvesting; supporting community land-tenureand strengthening community-based forest steward-ship; improvingtheefficiencyandsustainabilityofag-riculturalpractices;increasingaccesstoincentivesandincome-generating activities that depend upon forestconservation; andmanaging the demand for charcoalproduction.

Importance of forests to the Zambian economy and people

Withthegrowingrecognitionoftheimportantroleofnatu-ralcapital,therehasbeenasteadyshiftintheglobalagendafromthenotionofsustainabledevelopmenttothatofthegreen economy. A green economic path aims to achieveresilient and equitable sustainable development withoutdegrading theenvironment and losing the services that itprovides.Keyactions inthisregard includepreventingthelossofbiodiversityandecosystemservices,andpromotingenergyefficiency,whilerecognizinghumanwell-beingandsocialequityascoregoals (UNEP2011).Toachievepolicyshiftsinlow-incomecountriesinfavourofgreeneconomicdevelopmentitwillbenecessarytodemonstratethecostsofthedepletionofnaturalcapital–or,conversely,theben-efitsofsecuringandrestoringnaturalcapital–sothatthetrade-offsmadeunderdifferentdevelopmentpathscanbefullyappreciated.

Zambiaboastsawealthofnaturalresources,whicharecriti-calforitspeopleandeconomicdevelopment.Thecountryhascommitteditselftoachievinggrowthanddevelopmenttoreducepovertyandraiselivingstandards.Forestsareim-portant for reaching thesegoals,because theymakeupasignificantportionofZambia’snaturalcapital.Figure1pro-videsaspatialoverviewofforestcoverinZambia.Priortothe present study, however, no systematic evaluationhadeverbeenmadeofZambia’sforests.

Thebenefitsofforestsincludetheprovisionofproductsandservices,suchastimber,rawmaterials,fuel,foodandmedi-cine,thatcontributetothelivelihoodsandincomeofruralcommunities. Zambia’s forestsalsoprovideenvironmentalregulatingservices,suchascarbonstorageandsequestra-tion, the regulationofwaterflowsandwaterquality,ero-sion control, sediment retention, pollination and diseaseregulation.Theyalsoprovidesupportingservices for tour-ism,recreationalactivitiesandotherculturalpursuits.Thedepletionanddegradationofforestswillthereforeresultinthelossofthesevalues,andthislossmustbesetagainstanygainsthatmaybemadebythecompetingactivities.

estimatesandtoproducepreliminarydesktopestimatesofservicesthathadnotbeenvaluedpreviously.Spatialanalysistechniqueswerealsoused,wherepossible,togenerateesti-matesoflikelyvariationsinthevalueofecosystemservicesandthepotentialtrade-offsinvolvedinforestuseandcon-servation.Basedonavailableempiricalandspatialdata, inconjunctionwithassumptionsmadeonthebasisofanexpertunderstandingofecosystemservices,preliminaryestimateswerepreparedofthevalueofarangeofforestecosystemservices.Twoprincipalmodellingtechniqueswerefollowedinmakingtheseestimates,bothofwhichwerelimitedbythespatialresolutionandaccuracyoftheunderlyingdata:

• Extrapolationofdatabasedonspatialparametersattheresolutionallowedbythedata(e.g.byvegetationtype,biomass,populationdensityordistrict);or

• Modellingofspatialprocesses,usinganexistingspatialmodellingplatform,theintegratedvaluationofecosys-temservicesandtrade-offssuite(InVEST),developedbytheNaturalCapitalProjectatStanfordUniversity,USA.

Theecosystemservicesvalued,togetherwiththemethod-ologiesusedandmain secondary sources, arehighlightedinTable1.

Results

• Thevalueofwood productionwasestimatedatapprox-imatelyUS$396 million per annum. There is a spatialmismatchbetweensupplyandharvesting,sothatcer-tainareasappeartobeseverelyoverutilized.

• Estimates of the value of non-wood forest productsvary considerably, but, based on the assumptions ap-pliedinthisstudy,theoverallincomefromsuchprod-uctswasestimatedatUS$135.8 million per annum.

• Therearevariouswaysinwhichthevalueofcarboncanbeestimated.The present study estimated the value of carbon in termsof itsdamage costs (social costofcarbonemissions).ThecostofretainingtheremainingcarbonstockswouldbeintheorderofUS$29pertonnefor the global community, but retraining the remain-ingcarbonstocksforZambiaitselfwouldbeverymuchlesscostlythanthis,amountingtosomeUS$15 million per annum.Anotherwaytomeasurethevalueofcar-bonistousepricescurrentlypaidinthevoluntarycar-bonmarket,whichareintherangeofUS$6pertonne.Dependingon location, carbon stocks in Zambian for-estsarepotentiallyworthaboutUS$150perhaonaver-age(onceoff),butrangeuptoUS$745perhaforintactforests. The value of sequestration in degraded areasrangesbetweenareaboutUS$16andUS$30perhaperyear.

Figure1:Zambianforestcover.Source: Map of forest cover by the Zambian Forest Department

Estimating the economic values of forests to the national economy

Theaimof thepresent studywas toundertakeaprelimi-nary,rapidassessmentofthevalueofforestsintheZambianeconomyand the functions that theyperform, in supportofpolicydecisionsrelatedtodevelopmentplanning,forestconservationandmanagementandtheimplementationofREDD+activitiesinthecountry.

The study reviewed and synthesized available informationgatheredthroughextensivesurveysofpeer-reviewedpubli-cationsandacademicliteratureoutsideofficialpublications– so-called “grey literature”–and from in-country reportsanddata sources. Thesedatawereused toupdateearlier

• Basedonamodelofsoilerosionandtransportdevel-oped through this analysis (using InVEST software), itwasestimatedthatcurrentratesofsedimentoutputareintheorderof250milliontonnes(anaverageof2.23tonnesperha).Sediment retention byforestsisintheorderof274milliontonnes,generatingcostsavingsofUS$247 million per annum.

• Basedonthecostsofalternativemeansofpollination,thevalueof forest pollination serviceswasestimatedtobeintheorderofUS$74 million per annum.

• Estimatesofthedirectvalueaddedbyforest-based tour-ismrangefromUS$110 to US$179 million per annum.

• In summary, the analysis showed that the direct andindirect values of the forests considered under thepresentstudywereestimatedtomakeadirectcontri-

butionequivalent to some4.7% of GDP, or US$957.5 million, using 2010 figures.When,however, themul-tipliereffectsof forestryandtourism-relatedactivitiesonothersectorsaretakenintoaccount,theoveralloreconomy-wide contribution of forests was estimated to be at least 6.3% of GDP, or US$1,277 million. Table2providesasummaryoftheeconomicvalueofforestecosystemservicesinZambia.

• Forests are estimated to provide over 1 million jobs, supporting more than 60% of rural Zambian house-holds, which are heavily dependent upon the use ofnaturalresourcestosustainorsupplementtheirliveli-hoods.Forestresourcescontributeapproximately20%of household incomes, including the market value ofsubsistence production. The true value of forests, in-cludingflowsofgoodsandservicesforwhichnoreliabledatawereavailable,islikelytobeconsiderablyhigher.

Table1:Overviewofforestecosystemservicesvaluedandmethodsusedtoreachtheseestimates.

Type of ecosystem service

How estimate was reached Secondary data source

Industrialwood Valuewasbasedonsustainableyieldratherthancurrentuse.Thisstudyuses1)anexistingestimateofthemaximumallowablecut(Kalinda et al. 2008,17.5millionm3),whichequatesto0.6%oftheestimatedstandingstock,and2)Kalindaetal.’sestimateoftheproportionofroundwoodvs.fuelwood.Usingpricesperm3(Gumboet al.2013),spatialdistributionofthisvaluewasmappedbasedonthedistributionofforestbiomass.

Puustjärviet al.(2005)

Ng’andweet al.(2006)

MukoshaandSiampale(2009)

Woodfuel Usingpricesperm3(Gumboet al.2013andCSO2013),pricesperbagorbyvolumeforfinalproducts,andconversionswascalculatedtom3equivalents,theresultingfiguresrangedfrom$37to$43perm3.Basedonconservativepriceestimates,afinalfigureforgrossvalueadded(GVA)wasobtainedat62.5%ofgrossoutput.Theactualwoodfuelproductionisestimatedtobetwicethesustainableyield.Spatialdistributionofthisvaluewasmappedbasedonthedistributionofforestbiomass.

Puustjärviet al.(2005)

Ng’andweet al.(2006)

Kalindaet al.(2008)

CSO(2013)

Non-woodforestproducts

Comparabledatafromearlierstudieswereanalysedusingdistrict-levelinformationonforestbiomassandruralpopulationdensity.Cashincomefromforestproductswasafunctionofforestbiomassandpopulationdensity;subsistenceincomewasafunctionofpopulationdensity.Usingtheserelationshipstoestimateincomeatthedistrictlevel,anddrawingonthefindingsofearlierstudiesoncontributionsofdifferenttypesofresourcestocashandsubsistenceincome,overallincomefromnon-woodforestproductswasestimatedforruralhouseholds.

Nkomeshya(1998a&1998b)

Emerton(1998)

Turpieet al.(1999)

Mickels-Kokwe(2005)

Jumbeet al.(2008)

Bwalya(2011)

Mulengaet al.(2011)

Ecotourism Estimatesoftheproportionofforestecosystemvalueattributabletonature-basedtourismwereobtainedfromanearlierunpublishedstudyandupdatedusingrecenttourismstatisticsoftheWorldTravelandTourismCouncil(WTTC).Theproportionofnature-basedtourismwithinforestedareaswasestimatedonthebasisofthespatialdistributionofphotouploadsinGoogleEarth.

Hamiltonet al.(2007)

WTTC(2012)

Erosioncontroland

sedimentretention

SoilerosionandtransportweremodelledforZambia’scatchmentareasusingtheInVEST.Thisinvolvedestimationofarangeofparametersrelatingtotheerodibilityofsoils,andoftheimpactsofdifferenttypesoflanduseandlandcoverontheerosivityofthesoilanditscapacitytotrapsediments.Theseestimateswerebasedontheliteratureandothersimilarstudies.Estimatesofthequantitiesofsedimentthatwerepreventedfromreachingdamswerecomputedonthebasisof,1)aconversionoftonnesofsedimenttochangesindamvolume;and2)internationalestimatesofthecostsofdamsedimentation.Theoverallvaluewaspresentedonaspatialscalebasedonthemodeloutputsofrelativecontributionofeachpixeltothisservice,irrespectiveofspatialvariationindemand–inotherwords,assumingthattheserviceisfullydemanded.

CSO(2013)

Talliset al.(2013)

GISlayerondams

Bassonet al.(2009)

Agriculturalsupportservices

Totalareaandproductionvalueswerecollatedforcropsdependentonpollination;estimatesofthenumberofhivesrequiredperhectarewereestimatedonthebasisofvaluesintheliteratureforothercomparablecrops;replacementcostswereestimatedonthebasisofthepublishedcostofhiringhivesinSouthAfrica.

GRZ(2011)

CSO(2012)

Landuse/landcoverGISdata

Allsoppet al.(2008)

Carbonstorageandsequestration

Thevalueofmaintainingcurrentcarbonstockswasestimatedasthedamageavoidedthatwouldbeencausedbydeforestationandtheresultantclimatechangeimpacts,using1)globalestimatesofthesocialcostofcarbon;and2)averyroughestimateoftheproportionofthatcostthatwouldbebornebyZambia,basedonGDPestimatesforallcountriesandtheexpectedrelativemagnitudeofimpactsintermsofpercentageofGDPfordevelopedversusdevelopingcountries.Perhectarevaluesofcarbonsequestrationwerealsogiven,basedonpublishedratesofregenerationofdegradedforests,anddiscussedinrelationtoREDD+projects.Theoverallrateofsequestrationisunknown,however,asitdependsonhowbothintactanddegradedforestsarebeingmanagedandrequiresmoreinvestigation.

MODISsatellitedata

21.5 million Industrial roundwood

115.5 millionNWFPs

15 millionCARBON STORAGE

Unit: USD per Year(Direct value added)

Total 957.5 million which is 4.7% of GDPof Zambia in 2010

247 millionErosion control and sediment retention

110.2 millionEco-tourism*

74 millionPOLlINATION SERVICES

76.1 million

TRADE

NON-WOOD PRODUCTS

TOURISM

soil management

pollination

Firewood

298.2 millionCHARCOAL

FOREST COMMUNITIES

LOCAL PEOPLE

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

AIR QUALITY

FORESTS

Table2:Overviewoftheeconomicvalueofforestecosystemservicesandtheemploymentthatforestecosystemsgenerate.

Type of service or value Gross output or saving

Direct value added

Total value added

Employment

(US$ million per year) (‘000s people)Industrialroundwood 35.8 21.5 32.0 10.1

Fuelwood(firewoodandcharcoal) 598.9 374.3 557.7 >500.0

Non-woodforestproducts 135.9 115.5 172.1 888.8

Subtotal provisioning services 770.6 511.3 761.8 1 398.9

Percentage of GDP 2010 2.5% 3.8%

Ecotourism* 197 110.2 179.4 16.1

Erosioncontrolandsedimentretention** 247 247 247 -

Pollinationservices** 74 74 74 -

Carbonstorage(damageavoided)** 15 15 15 -

Subtotal regulating, supporting and cultural services 533 446.2 515.4 16.1

Percentage of GDP 2010 2.2% 2.5%

Total 1 303.6 957.5 1 277.2 1 415.0

Percentage of GDP 2010 4.7% 6.3%

*Thelow-endestimatesareused.**Thesevaluesareshownwithoutdecimals,giventhehigherlevelofuncertainty

Figure2provides anoverviewof the aggregateeconomicvalueof the forestecosystemservices thatwereassessedaspartof this study in termsofUnited Statesdollarsperhectareperyear.Ascanbeseen,theNorth-easternandtheSoutherndistrictsof the countryprovide thehighesteco-nomic valuesperhectare. This typeof informationwouldbeusefultotheGovernmentwhenprioritizinggeographicalareasfortheimplementationofREDD+.

Policy recommendations for investing in REDD+ and implications of such investment

Actions of several types are required to bring about themoresustainableuseofforestsandtoslowtherateoffor-estlossinZambia,asoutlinedbelow.

Given the importanceof forests to theeconomy, employ-ment and livelihoods, it is important that cost-effectivemethods of conserving and sustainably managing forestsare implementedtosupportgreengrowth.Waysofdoingthisincludestrengtheningandenhancingthemanagementand governance of forests at the local level; introducingmeasurestoreduceurbandemandforcharcoal;supportingthedevelopmentoflivelihoodandincome-generatingactiv-itiesthatsupportorrelyuponforestconservationandmain-tenance;andincreasingthesustainabilityandefficiencyofagriculturalpractices.Thepotentialandrelativesuccessofeachofthesestrategiesdependsontheecological,social,economic and political context in which they are imple-mented in Zambia.Where appropriate, these approachesshouldbepursuedinconcertandcanformthepillarsofaNationalREDD+StrategyinZambia.Thecostsandbenefitsof implementingREDD+ in Zambiawill dependheavilyonwheresuchimplementationisgoingtotakeplaceandthe

strategies that are employed to reduce deforestation. Forforest-basedinitiatives,giventhespatialvariationinsupplyand demand for ecosystem services, projects are likely tohavedifferentobjectivesindifferentareas.Itisrecommend-edthatalargeproportionofREDD+investmentsareused

(a) toaddressoff-siteinterventionsthataffectthedrivingforcesbehinddeforestation;and

(b) toimproveforestgovernance.

Thepresent study suggests that sustainablymanaged for-estsyieldbenefitsworthatleastUS$25perhaperyearonaverage,althoughthesemaybeashighas,orevenhigherthan,US$700perha.If these benefits are taken into con-sideration, REDD+ activities are likely to be more generally viable, and in situ conservation activities will also be viable across a broader spectrum of the landscape. The consid-erationofbenefitsotherthancarbon,forwhichthisstudyhasmade a first-cut estimation, is therefore important indeterminingtheviabilityofREDD+initiativesfromaneco-nomicpointofview. Itshouldalsoberecognizedthat thecarbonincomethatcanbegeneratedthroughREDD+initia-tivesalsohelpstomakepublicsector investment inforestconservationamoreviableprospect.

There is very little precedent in Zambia fromwhich infor-mation on implementation costs may be drawn, but thecostsofimplementingpilotREDD+projectswithafocusonspecificprojectareasrangebetweenUS$1.7andUS$6perha.IntheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,ontheotherhand,projectcostsareintherangeofUS$3.9–US$8.9perha(UN-REDD2012).ThecostsofeffectiveforestmanagementareestimatedbytheTanzaniaForestServicesAgencyatUS$8.3perha(Fisheret al.2011).

Figure2:Spatialdistributionoftheaggregatevalueofforestecosys-temservices(US$perhectareperyear)

Strengthening management

and enforcement

Increasedproduction e�ciency as

forest-sparingmechanism

Land tenureand legislation

reform

Measures toreduce demand

for charcoal

Develop (spatial and non spatial) scenarios

to evaluate options and priorities

Pilot and monitor the impact of

REDD+ initiatives

Improve understanding ofsupply and demand aspects of forest services

Investstrategically

Alternativelivelihoods

Chapter 6.2 Options for reducing forest degradation and loss in Zambia

Chapter 6.4 Recommendations

InZambia,therationaleforREDD+activitiesandthemeansbywhichtheyareundertakenmaydifferfromprovincetoprovinceanddistricttodistrict.InNorth-WestProvince,forinstance,whereforestsarelargelyintactandwherethepo-tential fortimberextraction ishighest, theREDD+priorityshouldbetodevelopandenforcesustainableforestry,butalsotoensurethattheenergyneedsofthelargenumbersof peoplemigrating into the area aremet sustainably. InthemoredenselypopulatedCentral,SouthernandEasternProvinces,whereforestcoverhasalreadybeensignificant-ly reduced and degraded and the demand for charcoal isgreatest, REDD+activitiesmust address the issueof char-coaldemand. In theseareas,where forestecosystemser-vices contribute substantially to Zambia’s agriculture andhydropowerproduction,REDD+interventionswillalsoneedtofocusoncurbingagriculturalexpansion.

ForseveralregionsofZambia,successinREDD+implementa-tionwillrequireexaminationandplanningofthecloseinter-linkagesand interdependencebetweenecotourism, forestconservationandsustainableruraleconomicdevelopment.Theregionssurrounding thecountry’seightmajornation-al parks show considerable variation in tourism revenues,with thehighestperharatebeingthose in theregionsoftheLivingstone,LowerZambezi,andSouthLuangwaparks.Clearly, forest conservation efforts maintain the potentialfor tourism,but it is vital forboth the forestsandwildlifepopulationsthatthecommunitiesinthoseareasobtaintan-giblebenefitsfromtourismandfromforestconservation,inviewofthefactthatothereconomicdevelopmenttrajecto-ries(suchasagriculture)arenotavailabletothem.

The final report of this present summary is published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in April 2015. This was written by Jane Turpie (Anchor Environmental Consultants), Benjamin Warr (BetterWorld Consultants), and Jane Carter Ingram (Wildlife Conservation Society) and ed-ited by Sun Cho (UNEP) and Ivo Mulder (UNEP).

This publication was produced in partnership with the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing

Countries (UN-REDD Programme), which harnesses the tech-nical capacities of FAO, UNDP and UNEP to support the REDD+ readiness and implementation capacities of developing coun-tries. More information available at www.un-redd.org.

The study was implemented by the Ecosystem Services Economics Unit, Division of Environmental Policy Implementation (DEPI), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

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